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BLOG / NEWS Updates
Scotiabank: Canada’s Poor Productivity a Key Driver of Higher Home Prices
From Scotiabank
HIGHLIGHTS
Canadas housing market has been on a roller coaster ride since the pandemic as reflected by the profile for real private investment in residential structures, housing starts, sales and prices over this period.
Housing affordability worsened significantly over this period with house prices reaching historical highs and mortgage rates increasing with the tightening in monetary policy since early 2022. Indeed, over this 5-year period home ownership affordability pressures have reached degrees like those witnessed in the early 1980s.
Using Scotiabank Economics macro-econometric model of the Canadian and U.S. economies, we estimate that tightening supply constraints in construction from 2019Q3 to 2024Q4reflecting weakening productivity and rising construction material costsand above-normal population growth since 2022 each contributed to raise the benchmark MLS Home Price Index (HPI) a bit more than $50,000 over that 5-year period.
This implies that if supply constraints had not tightened and population growth had stayed near its long-term average, the benchmark MLS HPI would have been slightly below $616,000 instead of the near $719,500 posted for 2024Q4.
Our assessment and results strongly press the need to work on improving productivity to achieve housing affordability. Indeed, reducing bureaucratic burdens will also make housing supply more responsive to demand, thereby reducing price increases for a given rise in demand in the future.
From 2024 to 2026, weaker population growth and uncertainty about trade barriers and their economic impact will reduce demand for homeownership. We forecast housing resale activity will slow in 2025 and 2026, declining from near 483,000 in 2024 to about 459,000 in 2026.
Tight supply constraints will contribute to raise house prices especially in 2026 and mitigate progress on affordability from the past decline in interest rates and robust growth in real income. We expect the MLS House Price Index to rise by 0.4% in 2025 and 7% in 2026 with still-elevated supply constraints and pressure from the existing dwelling shortage.
Of course, this expected profile for housing sales, starts and prices would be weaker if additional tariffs announced by the U.S. turn out more important than assumed in this forecast.
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-note.housing-note--march-19-2025-.html
CMHC: Core housing need and gender
Canadian Housing Survey shows women are more likely than men to be in core housing need.
Overall, women were more likely to be in core housing need than men.
Women experienced higher rates of core housing need in almost all age groups. However, the disparity was greatest between senior women and senior men over the age of 75.
Racialized women had higher rates of core housing need than non-racialized women.
Women-led, one-parent households had higher rates of core housing need than men-led, one-parent households.
Women living alone not in a census family were more likely to be in core housing need than couples with and without children.
Core housing need highlights the challenges many Canadians face in finding safe, suitable and affordable housing. Core housing need occurs when a household falls short of one or more housing standards adequacy, suitability or affordability and would need to spend 30% or more of its before-tax income to access housing that meets all 3 standards. Core housing need rates are often provided at the household level as the impact is felt by all individuals living in the household.
According to the Canadian Housing Survey, approximately 1.7 million households (11.2%) were assessed to be in core housing need in 2022. This translates to approximately 3.3 million individuals (9.1%).
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/blog/2025/core-housing-need-gender
TD Provincial Economic Forecast: Tariffs Taxing the Provincial Outlook
By TD Economics
Weve slashed our real GDP growth forecasts for this year from coast-to-coast, reflecting the impact of the Canada-U.S. trade war. Solid Q1 activity across regions will buffer annual averages, but we foresee a mild recession unfolding for Canada in the middle-part of this year.
Our forecast assumes that Canadas exports to the U.S. will face a 12.5% effective tariff rate for six months, lowered to 5% in Q4-2025 and held there through the projection horizon. We expect Canada to retaliate with their $155 billion package over the next two quarters before paring back to $30 billion.
Across provinces, Quebec and Ontario are especially exposed to tariff risks given their outsized manufacturing sectors. However, Quebecs public sector is also quite large, and is less directly exposed. New Brunswick, meanwhile, is heavily reliant on the U.S. as an export destination. On the flipside, U.S.-bound shipments make up only a small share of GDP in Nova Scotia and B.C., while a lower 10% tariff on energy exports will likely soften the blow in Albertas case.
The commodities backdrop, especially crude oil, is softening due to the prospect of slowing global demand growth. WTI prices have been revised lower, impacting profitability and investment in key resource-producing provinces.
Our forecast builds in assumed support from government stimulus. So far, weve received budgets from Nova Scotia, B.C., and Alberta. For the most part, growth-supporting efforts have focused on infrastructure spending and allocating funds for trade-war related contingencies. Alberta, however, will roll out a sizeable tax cut for households this year. Provinces are also retaliating to through various measures, including the elimination of U.S. alcohol purchases.
Weve downgraded our annual average housing forecasts for nearly every province this year (Newfoundland and Labrador gets a reprieve given solid momentum heading into 2025). Q1-25 performances were weak across most provinces. Part of this can be traced to severe winter storms in February, although tariff-related economic uncertainty is probably weighing. A subdued performance is likely in the cards for the bulk of 2025, before an improving jobs market, pent-up demand and waning uncertainty drives a better outcome in 2026.
https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast
