Brenda Manning

Home sales edged down 0.7% between June and July, a decline that follows a 3.4% pick up in the previous month which was due to the beginning of easing monetary policy by the Bank of Canada. On the supply side, new listings edged up 0.9% from June to July, the sixth advance in seven months. Active listings edged down 0.7% in July from their highest level since March 2020, the first decrease in five months. Meanwhile, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) remained stable at 4.2 during the month, a level back in line with its pre-pandemic level. Market conditions were unchanged in July and remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces. They were balanced in Manitoba and B.C., and softer than average in Ontario. After a slowdown in June, housing starts increased 37.9K in July to 279.5K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result well above the median economist forecast calling for a 245.0K print and its highest level since June 2023. Urban starts increased by 38.8K (to 261.1K) on an important gain in the multi-family segment (+38.1K to 217.3K) while the single-family segment was up marginally (+0.7K to 43.8). Starts practically doubled in Toronto (+30.7K to 65.1K), and also grew in Vancouver (+9.6K to 30.1K) and Calgary (+6.6K to 29.1K). On the other hand, they dropped significantly in Montreal (-26.0K to 9.0K) to their lowest level since February 2015 (excluding April 2020). The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index remained virtually stable from June to July, with a marginal increase of 0.2% after adjustment for seasonal effects. Six of the 11 markets in the composite index were up over the month: Hamilton (+2.3%), Victoria (+1.0%), Halifax (+0.8%), Calgary (+0.7%), Toronto (+0.3%) and Quebec City (+0.2%). Conversely, prices fell in Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.4%), Winnipeg (-0.1%), Vancouver (-0.1%) and Montreal (-0.1%), while they remained stable in Edmonton. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

National housing resale conditions softened from June to July as reflected by the modest decline in the sales-to-new listings ratio. Over this period, national sales declined by 0.7% (sa m/m) while new listings increased 0.9%. In July, sales were higher by 4.8% (nsa) compared to the same month in 2023. After increasing from May to June, the sales-to-new listings ratiowhich reflects how tight resale conditions areedged down to 52.7% from June to July, essentially back to its May level, and still within the range for balanced national resale market conditions (of between 45% to 65%). Months of inventory remained unchanged over this period at 4.2, still below its long-term (pre-pandemic) average of 5.3. And since the national market aggregates very different regional markets, there are wide variations in terms of how this indicator compares to its long-term average across provinces, ranging from less than 2 weeks above average in Ontario and British Colombia and Ontario to 5.7 months below in New Brunswick. About 2/3 of the markets witnessed a decline in their sales-to-new listings ratio from June to July. Consequently, the number of sellers favouring markets declined from 10 in June to 5 in July while the number of balanced markets increased from 16 to 22. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.august-15--2024.html