CMHC: Fall 2024 Housing Supply Report
Total housing starts in the 6 largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs) rose by 4% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The level of new construction (68,639 units) was the second strongest since 1990. However, when adjusted for population size, combined housing starts were close to the historical average and werent enough to meet growing demographic demand.
Calgary and Edmonton led the growth in housing starts due to record interprovincial migration in recent years, driven by their lower cost for housing and favourable economic conditions. In contrast, housing starts decreased in Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa.
Apartment starts in the 6 CMAs increased slightly, driven by rental construction. Nearly half of the apartments started in the first half of 2024 were purpose-built rentals the highest share on record. This trend aligns with demographic changes and declining homeownership affordability.
Except for Calgary and Edmonton, condominium apartment starts fell in the first 6 months of 2024 a trend we expect will continue as developers struggle to reach the minimum pre-construction sales needed to start construction. Both investors and end users have significantly reduced their purchases of new condominiums because of the impact of higher interest rates.
Developers prioritized clearing backlogs of projects under construction. As a result, apartment completions increased across the 6 CMAs, setting new records in each one except Montral and Vancouver.
Municipalities and provinces are working actively to increase housing supply and variety, with policies aimed at better meeting the needs of a broad range of buyers and renters.
https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report
Scotiabank: Shifting Priorities at the Bank of Canada
From Scotiabank
As the reduction in inflation takes hold and economic activity slows down, the Bank of Canada seems to be shifting its priority from inflation control to worries about growth.
Using a monetary policy reaction function that estimates the weight on inflation and the output gap over time, we find empirically that that Bank of Canada is now putting more weight on the output gap. This is a break from the last two years in which the estimated weight on inflation dominated that placed on the output gap. Our model suggests that as of 2024Q4, the BoC will focus more on eliminating this economic slack than on fighting inflation.
Our current forecast is that the Bank of Canada cuts by 25 bps at each of the two remaining meetings this year. This work suggests there is a risk that Governor Macklem will be more aggressive than that if he indeed is putting more weight on growth going forward. That would translate into a risk of a 50 bps cut at one of these meetings.
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.inflation-reports.boc-rate--october-2--2024.html
TD Canadian Housing Outlook: When the Trickle Becomes a Flood
Report by TD Economics
The Canadian 5-year bond yield has declined over 100 bps since early May, while the Bank of Canada has cut its policy rate 3 times (with two more likely on tap this year). In short, the interest rate environment has significantly improved. Housing market activity is stirring, yet Canadian sales gains have, thus far, trailed what could typically be expected given this rush of rate relief.
We chalk up the surprisingly subdued performance to two factors. The first is the continued strained affordability backdrop. Despite their recent decline, rates remain at levels last seen about 15 years ago. And, the second factor relates to the transparent messaging from central bankers that interest rates are set to fall even further. This is keeping potential buyers temporarily sidelined as they wait for additional cuts. The flat trend in Canadian average home prices since the summer means they havent really been penalized for that choice.
This relative stillness will likely only last so long. Indeed, conditions are in place for a solid pickup in resale activity. Alongside a further steady decline in the BoCs overnight rate, economic growth is likely to regain some traction going forward, and the federal government will roll out meaningful changes to mortgage rules that will support homebuying at the end of the year. Now, first-time homebuyers (and those that purchase new builds) can access 30-year amortizations (instead of 25), thereby lowering their monthly mortgage obligation. Also, the cap on which a buyer can qualify for an insured mortgage has been raised from $1 million to $1.5 million. This means that, for example, a purchaser who buys a detached home in Toronto valued at $1.2 million (the median price in August) could put down about $95k as a downpayment, instead of needing $240k as before.
The federal measures should help unlock powerful gains in Canadian sales and average home prices across Canada in the first half of 2025. However, part of this story will be that some activity that wouldve taken place this year is pushed into 2025, as buyers wait for the new rules to commence before purchasing.
https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook
