Derrick Bryce

A stable and efficient financial system is essential for sustaining economic growth and raising standards of living. In the Financial Stability Report, the Bank of Canada assesses the resilience of the Canadian financial system and focuses on key risks that could undermine its stability. Ultimately, financial stability benefits all Canadians. Key takeaways Canadas financial system is resilient. Overall, households, businesses, banks and non-bank financial intermediaries successfully weathered the pandemic, a period of elevated inflation, and sharp increases in interest rates. Over the past 12 months, Canadian households have been carrying, on average, less debt relative to their income, and insolvency filings by businesses have dropped significantly. But there are pockets of financial stress. The economic impacts of the pandemic, as well as elevated housing prices due to persistent imbalances in the housing market, have led to higher levels of debt for some households and businesses. This has made them more vulnerable to financial shocks. Because Canadian households and businesses have remained resilient overall, financial institutions have not come under stress. Canadian banks have generally maintained elevated capital buffers and have increased provisions for credit losses. Liquidity levels have remained high, and access to funding has continued to be strong. Recently, large and abrupt shifts in the direction of US trade policy have led to some bouts of extreme market volatility, including in the normally low-risk market for US Treasuries. This volatility tested the resilience of market participantsparticularly non-bank financial intermediaries deploying arbitrage strategies in the US Treasury market. The trade war currently threatens the Canadian economy and poses risks to financial stability. Near-term unpredictability of US trade and economic policy could cause further market volatility and a sharp repricing in assets, leading to strains on liquidity. In extreme circumstances, market volatility could turn into market dysfunction. In the medium to long term, a prolonged global trade war would have severe economic consequences. It would reduce economic growth and increase unemployment. Some households and businesses would be unable to continue making debt payments. If household and business credit defaults were to occur on a large scale, banks could see greater losses than they have provisioned for. This could lead them to pull back on lending, potentially exacerbating economic and financial stress. The Bank of Canada is watching developments closely and remains in regular contact with financial system participants and with other financial authorities in Canada and globally. A stable and resilient financial systemone that absorbs shocks and does not amplify themcan help the economy through periods of turbulence. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/05/financial-stability-report-2025/

Half believe owning a home is less attainable than in 2024. 43% of homeowners say they could not have purchased their home without family assistance. The latest BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals that while over two thirds (67%) of homebuyers are waiting for interest rates to drop before purchasing a home a 5% decrease from 2024 experts say many more Canadians may take a wait and see approach as concerns about the prospect of an economic recession increased from 60% to 74% from March to April 2025. Canadas housing market remained under pressure heading into the spring, with sales and prices both weakening further, said Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets. There is some clear underlying weakness as inventory builds and investors remain absent. Suffice it to say, homebuyers are losing confidence and motivation, especially in areas of B.C. and Southern Ontario. The BMO survey examines how concerns about the economy have influenced Canadians homebuying decisions: Revisiting Rates: Over two-thirds (67%) of prospective homeowners believe rates affect their buying decisions. Two in five (38%) Canadians are waiting for rates to drop to 3% or lower before purchasing or refinancing home. In addition, 44% admit they are unsure about the rate they would be comfortable with to move forward with buying or refinancing their home. Missed Momentum: When looking at the current housing market, 56% of prospective homeowners feel they missed their moment to buy a home. Two-thirds (66%) of Millennials feel they had missed their homebuying moment more than any other generation. Challenged Confidence: While 59% of Canadians believe homeownership is one of their greatest life aspirations, half (50%) believe owning a home is less attainable than it was 12 months ago, and two-thirds (66%) are less confident that they will own a home in their lifetime compared to five years ago. Deferred Demand: Among the 38% of homebuyers planning on purchasing a home in the near future, only 14% plan to in 2025 and a quarter (24%) plan on doing so in 2026 or later. Location, Location, Location: More than half (52%) of aspiring homebuyers would consider moving to a different province or country in order to afford buying a home. https://newsroom.bmo.com/2025-05-05-BMO-Survey-Rising-Recession-Concerns-Among-Canadians-Sidelining-Prospective-Homebuyers