From Scotiabank

• We expect the Bank of Canada to cut by 25bps at each of the next three meetings.
• Inflation is on a good downward path though growth in the interest rate-sensitive parts of the economy remains surprisingly strong.
• Positive risks to the outlook for growth and inflation remain as interest rates come down. We are particularly mindful of the response in real estate markets and household spending. Any materialization of upside risks would imperil future rate cuts.

Rate cuts have finally begun in Canada. With inflation hopefully on a sustained downward path despite the interest rate-sensitive parts of our economy performing surprisingly well, it is now clear that the Bank of Canada has decided rate relief is necessary. That is great news for borrowers if the Bank of Canada follows through with additional cuts. We think they will, though we remain concerned about upside risks to inflation given rising wages and falling productivity, the surprising strength in consumption, the serial over-stimulation by the federal and provincial governments, and the potential for a housing market rebound. As a result of the latest decision and the communications around that we are changing our Bank of Canada view and now expect that Governor Macklem will cut the policy rate at each of the next three meetings, for a total of 100bps of cuts this year.

https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.global-outlook-and-forecast-tables.scotiabank%27s-forecast-tables.2024.june-6--2024.html