From CMHC

Highlights

• Foreign trade risks and immigration changes add significant uncertainty to the outlook. We expect economic activity to be modest in 2025, picking up in 2026 and 2027.
• Housing starts will slow down from 2025 to 2027 mainly due to fewer condominium apartments being built but total starts will remain above their 10-year average. Rental apartment construction will remain high but may slow in 2027 as demand eases. Ground-oriented homes (detached, semi-detached, row homes) may recover slightly, especially in more affordable options like row houses.
• We expect housing sales and prices to rebound as lower mortgage rates and changes to mortgage rules unlock pent-up demand in the short term. In the longer term, stronger economic fundamentals will support this rebound. The recovery will be uneven, with slower progress in less affordable regions and in the condominium apartment market.
• Rental markets are expected to ease with higher vacancy rates slowing rent growth. Renter affordability will improve gradually, with more noticeable changes happening later in the forecast period.

https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-market-outlook?utm_medium=email&utm_source=email-e-blast&utm_campaign=2025-01-housing_market_outlook_2025