The housing market has stabilized in October
- On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 1.3% from September to October, the first monthly gains in eight months. Despite this growth in sales, this should not be seen as the beginning of an upward trend, but more like a stabilization of the market, with sales now 35.6% below their February level.
- This is the first time in four months that new listings are up with an increase of 2.2% from September to October. Despite the increase in soles, the increase in new listings allowed supply to accumulate, resulting in the number of months of inventory increasing from 3.7 to 3.8 in October.
- We are not yet seeing a large influx of sellers at this time, so supply is still very low on a historical basis and market conditions are still pointing in the direction of a "favourable to sellers" market. This situation is also present in the majority of Canadian provinces, while only B.C. and Manitoba close to indicating a "favourable to buyers" market.
- Housing starts declined by 31.8K in October to 267.1K (seasonally adjusted and annualized) after having reached their highest level for 2022 in the prior month while the consensus was calling for a decline to 275K. Storts continued to be well above their long-term average, despite still increasing interest rates.
- The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.8% in October compared to the previous month and after seasonal adjustments. Nine of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Halifax (-4.7%), Hamilton (-2.8%), Winnipeg (-2.4%), Victoria (-2.0%), Quebec City (-1.7%), Toronto (-1.1%), Ottawo-Gotineau (-1.1%), Montreal (-1.0%) and Vancouver (-0.3%). Conversely, the Calgary (+1.8%) and Edmonton (+2.0%) markets were still up.