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BLOG / NEWS Updates
What’s Happening in Canadian Housing Markets as We Head into 2023?
Sales in November were down 3.3% on a month-over-month basis, rejoining the trend of moderating sales that began back in February.
The Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 1.4% on a month-over-month basis in November, which, as with sales activity, continues the trend that began in the spring. The national MLS HPI now sits about 11.5% below its peak level but there are considerable regional differences.
While prices are down more in Ontario and parts of British Columbia, they have softened to some degree almost everywhere. Calgary, Regina and Saskatoon stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks.
https://www.creacafe.ca/whats-happening-in-canadian-housing-markets-as-we-head-into-2023/
Canada: Prices down from their peak across the country
From National Bank of Canada
For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, all of the cities covered by the Teranet-National Bank HPI have seen prices decline from their peak reached over the past 12 months, marking the end of a prosperous period for the Canadian real estate market. Indeed, price declines were observed in all markets covered, with the last cities on the list to experience contractions being Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge and Trois-Rivieres. Since its peak in May 2022, the national composite index has already fallen by 9.0%, almost as much as during the last financial crisis (-9.2%). With the Bank of Canada raising its key interest rate again in December and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we still anticipate a total correction of about 15% in house prices nationally by the end of 2023, assuming that the policy rate does not increase further and begins to decline in the second half of 2023. Although corrections are being observed in the vast majority of markets covered by the index, the CMAs that have experienced the most significant price growth over the past two years are also those that have recorded the sharpest declines to date. Ontario, British Columbia, and the Maritimes therefore appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less so, helped by a buoyant economic context.
HIGHLIGHTS:
The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 1.1% in November compared to the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects, a fifth consecutive monthly decrease.
After adjusting for seasonal effects, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Montreal (-2.2%), Hamilton (-1.9%), Vancouver (-1.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.3%), Winnipeg (-1.1%), Quebec City (-1.1%), Toronto (-0.9%) and Calgary (-0.8%). Conversely, the Halifax (+1.6%), Victoria (+0.9%) and Edmonton (+0.3%) markets were up.
From November 2021 to November 2022, the composite index increased by 2.0%, the lowest annual growth since November 2019. This growth was driven by Calgary (14.6%), Edmonton (7.6%), Halifax (6.2%), Quebec City (5.7%), Montreal (4.7%) and Victoria (3.0%). Growth was lower than average in Winnipeg (1.2%), Vancouver (0.7%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.4%), while it remained stable in Toronto and was down in Hamilton (-0.9%).
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf
The housing market resumed its downward trend in November
Summary
On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales decreased 3.3% from October to November, an eighth monthly decline in nine months. After recording a gain in October, the real estate market has resumed its downward trend of recent months, accumulating a decline in sales of 38.8% since their February level.
New listing were down 1.3% from October to November, a fourth contraction in five months which shows that both buyers and sellers remain on the sidelines in the current market environment.
It should also be noted that a very high proportion of sellers are changing their minds, while we estimate that about one in five listings are withdrawn during the month.
The level of sales is still allowing supply to rebuild, with the number of months of inventory increasing from 3.9 to 4.2 in November.
While easing, market conditions are still pointing in the direction of a favourable to sellers market with supply still very low on a historical basis.
Housing starts were essentially steady in November at a level way above historical trends (-0.4K to 264.2K, seasonally adjusted and annualized). This was better than consensus expectations calling for a decline. That said, the prior months result was revised downwards from 267.1 to 264.6K.
The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price lndexTM decreased by 1.1% in November compared to the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects, a fifth consecutive monthly decrease. After adjusting for seasonal effects, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Montreal (-2.2%), Hamilton (-1.9%), Vancouver (-1.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.3%), Winnipeg (-1.1%), Quebec City (-1.1%), Toronto (-0.9%) and Calgary (-0.8%). Conversely, the Halifax (+l.6%), Victoria (+0.9%) and Edmonton (+0.3%) markets were up.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf
