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NBC Housing Market Monitor: Housing market remained sluggish in August
Summary
Home sales edged up 1.3% between July and August, following a 0.6% decrease the previous month.
On the supply side, new listings edged up 1.1% from July to August, the seventh advance in eight months. They are now at their highest level since June 2022.
Active listings edged down 1.1% in August from their highest level since March 2020, the second decrease in six months. Meanwhile, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) edged down from 4.2 to 4.1 during the month, a level roughly back in line with its pre-pandemic level.
Market conditions tightened marginally in August and remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces. They were balanced in Manitoba and softer than average in B.C. and Ontario.
After a surge in July, housing starts dropped 62.4K in August to 217.4K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result well below the median economist forecast calling for a 250.0K print and its lowest level since November 2023. Urban starts decreased by 61.6K (to 199.5K) on an important drop in the multi-family segment (-62.8K to 154.3K) while the single-family segment was up marginally (+1.2K to 45.2K). Starts were down by more than half in Toronto (-40.4K to 24.6K) and decreased more modestly in Vancouver (-9.6K to 20.5K) and Calgary (-9.2K to 19.9K). On the other hand, they increased by 6.0K in Montreal (to 15.2K) after reaching their lowest level since February 2015 (excluding April 2020) the previous month.
The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.6% from July to August after adjustment for seasonal effects. Six of the 11 markets in the composite index were up over the month: Quebec City (+3.9%), Halifax (+3.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.9%), Vancouver (+1.7%), Montreal (+1.0%) and Toronto (+0.2%). Conversely, declines occurred in Hamilton (-0.1%), Winnipeg (-0.7%), Calgary (-1.1%) and Edmonton (-2.6%), while prices remained stable in Victoria during the month.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf
Canadian Housing Activity Remains in Holding Pattern
National home sales increased in June following the Bank of Canadas first interest rate cut since 2020, and activity posted another small gain in August on the heels of the second rate cut in late July, but the bigger picture appears to be a market mostly stuck in a holding pattern.
Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems edged up by 1.3% on a month-over-month basis in August 2024, reaching their highest level since January and their second highest in over a year.
Despite some fledgling signs of life to kick off the long-awaited monetary policy easing cycle, Canadian housing market activity still looks to be stuck in the same holding pattern its been in all year, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. That said, with ever more friendly interest rates now all but guaranteed later this year and into 2025, it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.
Highlights:
National home sales edged up 1.3% month-over-month in August.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 2.1% below August 2023.
The number of newly listed properties ticked up 1.1% month-over-month.
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged month-over-month but was down 3.9% year-over-year.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was almost unchanged (+0.1%) on a year-over-year basis in August.
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/
Government announces boldest mortgage reforms in decades to unlock homeownership for more Canadians
Canadians work hard to be able to afford a home. However, the high cost of mortgage payments is a barrier to homeownership, especially for Millennials and Gen Z. To help more Canadians, particularly younger generations, buy a first home, new mortgage rules came into effect on August 1, 2024, allowing 30 year insured mortgage amortizations for first-time homebuyers purchasing new builds.
The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, announced a suite of reforms to mortgage rules to make mortgages more affordable for Canadians and put homeownership within reach:
Increasing the $1 million price cap for insured mortgages to $1.5 million, effective December 15, 2024, to reflect current housing market realities and help more Canadians qualify for a mortgage with a downpayment below 20 per cent. Increasing the insured-mortgage capwhich has not been adjusted since 2012to $1.5 million will help more Canadians buy a home.
Expanding eligibility for 30 year mortgage amortizations to all first-time homebuyers and to all buyers of new builds, effective December 15, 2024, to reduce the cost of monthly mortgage payments and help more Canadians buy a home. By helping Canadians buy new builds, including condos, the government is announcing yet another measure to incentivize more new housing construction and tackle the housing shortage. This builds on the Budget 2024 commitment, which came into effect on August 1, 2024, permitting 30 year mortgage amortizations for first-time homebuyers purchasing new builds, including condos.
These new measures build on the strengthened Canadian Mortgage Charte, announced in Budget 2024, which allows all insured mortgage holders to switch lenders at renewal without being subject to another mortgage stress test. Not having to requalify when renewing with a different lender increases mortgage competition and enables more Canadians, with insured mortgages, to switch to the best, cheapest deal.
https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2024/09/government-announces-boldest-mortgage-reforms-in-decades-to-unlock-homeownership-for-more-canadians.html
