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TD: Mortgage Rule Changes to Add Fuel to Canadian Housing Recovery
Report by TD Economics
Highlights
On December 15th, the federal government will roll out mortgage rule changes that make it easier to purchase a home for those taking out insured mortgages.
These measures should offer a lift to Canadian home sales and prices next year. However, their impact will be blunted by an array of factors, including the affordability erosion induced by their implementation.
Mitigating the impacts of these policies may be positive from a financial stability perspective, as the measures will likely encourage households to take on more debt at a longer term, and insured borrowers have typically been more prone to bouts of financial stress.
The federal government has recently announced two changes to Canadian mortgage rules (effective December 15th, 2024) that will make it easier to qualify for purchasing a home. As the surge in home sales early in 2024 (amid a steep drop in bond yields at the end of last year) and in the spring of 2023 (after the Bank of Canada paused its rate hiking campaign) taught us, Canadian housing market activity can be highly reactive. Yet, we dont think that these measures alone will unleash a housing boom. Instead, theyll likely offer a secondary tailwind to a market thats already gaining decent traction in 2025 on the back of lower borrowing costs and a gradually improving economy (see here). Whats more, the affordability boost offered by these measures will likely also erode as home prices are raised by their implementation, thereby limiting their effectiveness.
https://economics.td.com/ca-mortgage-rule-changes
NBC BoC Policy Monitor: No more quarter pounders… Super-size me!
Rate Statement
The rate cutting cycle was turned up a notch as the Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, a decision in line with consensus and market expectations. This fourth cut in as many meetings marks a cumulative rate reduction of 125 basis points and brings the policy rate to its lowest point since December 2022. The move also pushes the BoCs policy rate 125 basis points below the Federal Reserves, though an expected November Fed cut would narrow that gap. Meanwhile, balance sheet normalization will continue as expected. Here are some additional highlights from the communique and the opening statement to the press conference:
Driving the decision to cut 50 bps was a desire to support economic growth and to keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range.
As for forward rate guidance, the Bank says, we expect to reduce the policy rate further if the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast. As always, the timing and pace of further cuts, will be guided by incoming information.
Despite recent soft data, the Bank still expects relatively solid GDP growth ahead: GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates.
The Bank appears to be looking the strength of the September jobs report, as the statement simply says the labour market remains soft. Still, they note that wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth.
The Bank highlights that inflation has declined significantly thanks to excess supply in the economy. The breadth of price increases have normalized, as have inflation expectations. Policymakers now expect inflation to remain close to target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures roughly balancing out.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf
Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¾%
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization.
The Bank continues to expect the global economy to expand at a rate of about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States is now expected to be stronger than previously forecast while the outlook for China remains subdued. Growth in the euro area has been soft but should recover modestly next year. Inflation in advanced economies has declined in recent months, and is now around central bank targets. Global financial conditions have eased since July, in part because of market expectations of lower policy interest rates. Global oil prices are about $10 lower than assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR).
In Canada, the economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and we expect growth of 1% in the second half. Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis. Exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. The labour market remains softthe unemployment rate was at 6.5% in September. Population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest. This has particularly affected young people and newcomers to Canada. Wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.
GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth. Residential investment growth is also projected to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations. Business investment is expected to strengthen as demand picks up, and exports should remain strong, supported by robust demand from the United States.
Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/10/fad-press-release-2024-10-23/
