Casey Scobie

The Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations was conducted through an online panel from January 29 to February 19, 2025. Follow-up phone interviews took place from February 20 to 25, 2025. This period was characterized by pervasive uncertainty created by the sudden and unpredictable shifts in US trade policy. Overview Overall, results of the first-quarter 2025 survey show that the escalating trade conflict with the United States is damaging consumer sentiment. Confidence in the labour market has weakened sharply. This is because many consumersnotably those working in sectors that are highly dependent on tradeare worried about losing their job. In this context, consumers have also become more pessimistic about their financial health. Although consumption plans had been improving over several quarters, consumers now intend to spend more cautiously given the uncertainty around the trade conflict. In addition, elevated housing costs and the high prices of many goods and services continued to weigh on households spending plans. Consumers expect the trade conflict to lead to a higher cost of living. This is reflected in their short-term inflation expectations, which rose in the first quarter of 2025. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/04/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-first-quarter-of-2025/

By TD Economics The one-two punch of winter storms and tariff-related economic uncertainty sent a chill through Canadian housing markets in the first quarter. Were now tracking a double-digit quarterly decline in Canadian home sales and a mid-single digit drop in Canadian average home prices. These outcomes are much weaker than our pre-Trump inauguration forecast made in December, where we assumed that a loosening in federal mortgage rules, lower interest rates and continued economic growth would fuel a modest Q1 gain in sales and prices. This much softer starting point has us led to materially mark down our 2025 annual average growth forecasts for Canadian home sales and prices. Moving forward, its unlikely that activity will be as weak as it was in the first quarter. However, we still think that elevated uncertainty and a deteriorating jobs market will yield subdued sales and price growth for much of 2025. 2025 home price forecasts have been cut the most in B.C. and Ontario, where we now think that prices will decline in annual average terms this year. This reflects muted demand conditions in both markets and supply/demand balances that are heavily skewed in the favour of buyers. Of note, the GTA condo market is particularly soft, which will weigh on prices in Ontario this year. Elsewhere, 2025 quarterly price growth forecasts have been marked down to sub-trend levels in other parts of the country. Were retaining our view that quarterly price gains will outperform in the Prairies moving forward given relatively tight supply/demand balances and comparatively better affordability. An improving backdrop should set the stage for a notable rebound in home sales and average home prices in 2026. Specially, hiring should improve as were assuming a dialing back in tariff-related uncertainty . At the same time, interest rates should be at multi-year lows. These factors will facilitate the release of significant pent-up demand. However, the scale of bounce-back in Canadian average home prices will likely be restrained by poor affordability in key markets like B.C. and Ontario. https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook