Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 2¾%
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 2.75%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 2.70%.
The Canadian economy entered 2025 in a solid position, with inflation close to the 2% target and robust GDP growth. However, heightened trade tensions and tariffs imposed by the United States will likely slow the pace of economic activity and increase inflationary pressures in Canada. The economic outlook continues to be subject to more-than-usual uncertainty because of the rapidly evolving policy landscape.
After a period of solid growth, the US economy looks to have slowed in recent months. US inflation remains slightly above target. Economic growth in the euro zone was modest in late 2024. Chinas economy has posted strong gains, supported by government policies. Equity prices have fallen and bond yields have eased on market expectations of weaker North American growth. Oil prices have been volatile and are trading below the assumptions in the Banks January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian dollar is broadly unchanged against the US dollar but weaker against other currencies.
Canadas economy grew by 2.6% in the fourth quarter of 2024 following upwardly revised growth of 2.2% in the third quarter. This growth path is stronger than was expected at the time of the January MPR. Past cuts to interest rates have boosted economic activity, particularly consumption and housing. However, economic growth in the first quarter of 2025 will likely slow as the intensifying trade conflict weighs on sentiment and activity. Recent surveys suggest a sharp drop in consumer confidence and a slowdown in business spending as companies postpone or cancel investments. The negative impact of slowing domestic demand has been partially offset by a surge in exports in advance of tariffs being imposed.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/03/fad-press-release-2025-03-12/
Statistic Canada: New Housing Price Index, January 2025
New home prices continued slowdown in January
The national index edged down 0.1% on a month-over-month basis in January, following the same decline in the previous month. Prices were unchanged in 15 out of the 27 surveyed census metropolitan areas (CMAs). Meanwhile, nine CMAs saw an increase, while three CMAs were down. Even though more CMAs recorded price increases in January, a decline was seen at the national level. This decrease was driven by Toronto (-0.4%), the largest new housing market in Canada, accounting for nearly one-quarter (23.6%) of the national weight.
The largest month-over-month decrease of new home prices in January was recorded in Ottawa (-0.5%), followed by Toronto (-0.4%) and Edmonton (-0.2%). The weight of these three CMAs accounts for 38.8% of the national index. The latest new housing sales figures show a slowdown in the Ottawa and Toronto markets. Data collected from the Greater Ottawa Home Builders Association shows a 21.2% monthly decline in sales of new detached houses and townhouses in December 2024. In the case of Toronto, Altus Group reported a decline in new single-family home sales (-68.6%) in December 2024.
The largest monthly increases in January 2025 were registered in Saskatoon (+0.6%) and St. CatharinesNiagara region (+0.6%), followed by Qubec (+0.5%) and Winnipeg (+0.4%). Reduced borrowing costs fuelled the demand for housing in the CMAs where prices were relatively more affordable. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported declines in inventory of completed and unsold single-family homes in Qubec (-10.8%) and Winnipeg (-3.3%) in December 2024 compared to the previous month.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250220/dq250220c-eng.htm
TD: How likely is another Bank of Canada rate cut in March?
With the second Bank of Canada (BoC) rate announcement this year around the corner on March 12, many Canadians are eager to see if the central bank will cut its lending rate again.
In January, the BoC cut its lending rate by 25 basis points, bringing it down from 3.25% to 3%.
So, is more rate relief on the way? According to TD Economist Derek Burleton, the BoC is likely to cut its lending rate at the upcoming announcement by 25 basis points.
We are anticipating a follow-up cut in March, and TD Economics predicts the central bank will bring its lending rate down to 2.75%, Burleton said.
Since the inflation data came out a few weeks ago, market odds of a cut fell as low as 30%, but have since jumped to 90% following the imposition of U.S. tariffs on Canadian exports. So, while theres still a chance that the central bank will announce a rate hold, there is a growing consensus that a cut is in store.
Burleton explained that the Bank of Canada needs to help prepare for the economic risks on the horizon especially around tariffs.
Even with recent reports showing a resilient job market and robust GDP growth in Canada, the central bank needs to ensure the economy is prepared for U.S. tariffs to hit Canadian exports, he said.
https://stories.td.com/ca/en/article/will-bank-of-canada-cut-interest-rates-march-2025
