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BLOG / NEWS Updates
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2½%
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.
After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed. US inflation has picked up in recent months as businesses appear to be passing on some tariff costs to consumer prices. Growth in the euro area has moderated as US tariffs affect trade. Chinas economy held up in the first half of the year but growth appears to be softening as investment weakens. Global oil prices are close to their levels assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased further, with higher equity prices and lower bond yields. Canadas exchange rate has been stable relative to the US dollar.
Canadas GDP declined by about 1% in the second quarter, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity. Exports fell by 27% in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from first-quarter gains when companies were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace. In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.
Employment has declined in the past two months since the Banks July MPR was published. Job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. The unemployment rate has moved up since March, hitting 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to ease.
CPI inflation was 1.9% in August, the same as at the time of the July MPR. Excluding taxes, inflation was 2.4%. Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated. A broader range of indicators, including alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes across CPI components, continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2%. The federal governments recent decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/09/fad-press-release-2025-09-17/
CMHC: Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report
Highlights
Combined housing starts across Canadas 7 key census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in the first half of 2025 were just a few units below 2024 levels and near all-time highs. However, this overall stability masked sharp regional differences. Gains in Calgary, Edmonton, Montral and Ottawa were offset by declines in Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax.
Ground-oriented construction including single-detached, semi-detached and row homes saw a modest growth, driven by lower mortgage rates unlocking demand in more affordable markets. In higher-cost centres, like Toronto and Vancouver, affordability remained strained and homebuyers cautious amid economic uncertainty.
Condominium apartment starts declined in most key markets as slower presales led to project delays and cancellations. Meanwhile, purpose-built rental starts surged, bolstered by government support and a shift among developers toward the rental market.
Active and new listings, which represent the other key component of housing supply, were either stable (Edmonton and Montral) or rising (Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa and Halifax). Combined with strong housing completions, they have contributed to an increase in the overall supply in Canadas key markets.
Ongoing construction slowdowns in select CMAs pose risks to future housing supply, workforce retention and affordability. In the context of trade tensions, economic uncertainty and slower population growth, we expect combined starts across the 7 major CMAs to recover only gradually, with modest improvement by 2027.
CMHC
TD: Market uncertainty leaves Canadians divided, expert advice becomes a key resource in navigating mortgage decisions
A new TD survey reveals how todays increasingly complex market is shaping the way Canadians approach one of lifes biggest financial decisions: their mortgage. While the majority of Canadians feel informed about the mortgage process, the survey shows that economic volatility, rate unpredictability, and tariff pressures are prompting many to rethink their strategies, highlighting that expert guidance is a vital tool to navigate the challenges of todays environment.
Canadians are navigating interest rate uncertainty
While the Bank of Canada has held rates steady in recent months, Canadians remain divided on where rates could head next. The survey found that 32 per cent expect rates to rise, 27 per cent anticipate a decrease, and 29 per cent believe theyll remain unchanged. This lack of consensus reflects the challenges Canadians face when making long-term financial decisions in a rapidly shifting landscape.
With so much uncertainty around what comes next, Canadians are thinking carefully about how best to approach their mortgage, says Patrick Smith, VP, Product Management, Real Estate Secured Lending at TD. Expert advice can help bring clarity to that complexity, so Canadians can make confident, informed choices aligned with their needs and long-term goals.
Economic pressures add even more complexity
Beyond rate expectations, Canadians are increasingly aware of how broad economic shifts may influence their homeownership goals. Tariffs, in particular, are playing a key role in how Canadians make decisions about their mortgage. According to the survey, nearly a third (29 per cent) of Canadians say that tariffs have caused them to reassess their mortgage strategy.
The survey also found:
31 per cent say that tariffs have impacted their borrowing capacity;
28 per cent agree that tariffs have caused them to reconsider taking out a mortgage;
28 per cent agree that tariffs have impacted which mortgage lender they are choosing or plan to choose.
https://stories.td.com/ca/en/news/2025-08-20-market-uncertainty-leaves-canadians-divided-2c-expert-advice-b