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BLOG / NEWS Updates
CREA: Canadian Home Sales Post Best August in Four Years
The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems edged up 1.1% on a month-over-month basis in August 2025. It was the best month of August for sales since 2021, and the fifth straight monthly increase in activity, making for a cumulative 12.5% since March.
Unlike in recent months, when gains were led overwhelmingly by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), sales in the GTA were down slightly in August, but this was more than offset by higher sales in Montreal, Greater Vancouver and Ottawa.
Activity has continued to gradually pick up steam over the last five months, but the experience from a year ago suggests that trend could accelerate this fall, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. Part of what drives sales at different points in the year is the availability of a lot of fresh property listings for buyers to buy. For the fall market, that always happens right at the beginning of September, and this year was no exception. If last year is any kind of guide, then there is the potential that sales could really pick up in the next month or so depending on how many buyers are drawn off the sidelines, particularly if we see a September rate cut by the Bank of Canada.
August Highlights:
National home sales were up 1.1% month-over-month.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 1.9% above August 2024.
The number of newly listed properties climbed 2.6% on a month-over-month basis.
The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was little changed (-0.1%) month-over-month and was down 3.4% on a year-over-year basis.
The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price rose 1.8% on a year-over-year basis.
https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/
Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2½%
The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points to 2.5%, with the Bank Rate at 2.75% and the deposit rate at 2.45%.
After remaining resilient to sharply higher US tariffs and ongoing uncertainty, global economic growth is showing signs of slowing. In the United States, business investment has been strong but consumers are cautious and employment gains have slowed. US inflation has picked up in recent months as businesses appear to be passing on some tariff costs to consumer prices. Growth in the euro area has moderated as US tariffs affect trade. Chinas economy held up in the first half of the year but growth appears to be softening as investment weakens. Global oil prices are close to their levels assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased further, with higher equity prices and lower bond yields. Canadas exchange rate has been stable relative to the US dollar.
Canadas GDP declined by about 1% in the second quarter, as expected, with tariffs and trade uncertainty weighing heavily on economic activity. Exports fell by 27% in the second quarter, a sharp reversal from first-quarter gains when companies were rushing orders to get ahead of tariffs. Business investment also declined in the second quarter. Consumption and housing activity both grew at a healthy pace. In the months ahead, slow population growth and the weakness in the labour market will likely weigh on household spending.
Employment has declined in the past two months since the Banks July MPR was published. Job losses have largely been concentrated in trade-sensitive sectors, while employment growth in the rest of the economy has slowed, reflecting weak hiring intentions. The unemployment rate has moved up since March, hitting 7.1% in August, and wage growth has continued to ease.
CPI inflation was 1.9% in August, the same as at the time of the July MPR. Excluding taxes, inflation was 2.4%. Preferred measures of core inflation have been around 3% in recent months, but on a monthly basis the upward momentum seen earlier this year has dissipated. A broader range of indicators, including alternative measures of core inflation and the distribution of price changes across CPI components, continue to suggest underlying inflation is running around 2%. The federal governments recent decision to remove most retaliatory tariffs on imported goods from the US will mean less upward pressure on the prices of these goods going forward.
https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/09/fad-press-release-2025-09-17/
CMHC: Fall 2025 Housing Supply Report
Highlights
Combined housing starts across Canadas 7 key census metropolitan areas (CMAs) in the first half of 2025 were just a few units below 2024 levels and near all-time highs. However, this overall stability masked sharp regional differences. Gains in Calgary, Edmonton, Montral and Ottawa were offset by declines in Toronto, Vancouver and Halifax.
Ground-oriented construction including single-detached, semi-detached and row homes saw a modest growth, driven by lower mortgage rates unlocking demand in more affordable markets. In higher-cost centres, like Toronto and Vancouver, affordability remained strained and homebuyers cautious amid economic uncertainty.
Condominium apartment starts declined in most key markets as slower presales led to project delays and cancellations. Meanwhile, purpose-built rental starts surged, bolstered by government support and a shift among developers toward the rental market.
Active and new listings, which represent the other key component of housing supply, were either stable (Edmonton and Montral) or rising (Vancouver, Toronto, Calgary, Ottawa and Halifax). Combined with strong housing completions, they have contributed to an increase in the overall supply in Canadas key markets.
Ongoing construction slowdowns in select CMAs pose risks to future housing supply, workforce retention and affordability. In the context of trade tensions, economic uncertainty and slower population growth, we expect combined starts across the 7 major CMAs to recover only gradually, with modest improvement by 2027.
CMHC
