CANADA HOUSING MARKET: FOR 2025, THE EARLY-YEAR OPTIMISM WAS SIDETRACKED BY RISING GLOBAL TRADE FRICTIONS AND UNCERTAINTY

National housing sales (in units) posted another monthly decline in December. The sales-to-new listings ratio—an indicator of market conditions tightness—eased modestly over this period with new listings also declining, but at a lesser pace than sales. The national MLS HPI continued its downward trend in December, consistent with easier housing market conditions nationally.

National (unit) sales fell -2.7% (sa figures) from November to December, after a -0.8% monthly decline in November. In December, they were -10.1% below their most recent peak achieved in November 2024, and –4.5% (nsa figures) below their December 2024 level. National new listings posted their fourth consecutive monthly decline in December with a -2% (sa) print. However, they were in December 0.8% higher than the same month in the previous year.

National resale market conditions eased in December, from both the previous month and from the same month in 2024. The monthly easing reflects a 0.4 percentage point decline (sa) for the sales-to-new listings ratio from November to December—as the decline in sales modestly outpaced that in new listings—as well as a modest rise in months of inventory from 4.4 to 4.5 months over this period. Second, the yearly progression in both the sales-to-new listings ratio—declining by 3.5 p.p.—and months of inventory—rising by 0.6 month—suggests easier resale conditions last December compared to a year earlier.

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