Keith Baker and Jacqueline Zerbe
Mortgage Broker
Office:
Phone:
Email:
Address:
120-2419 Bellevue Ave, West Vancouver, British Columbia, V7V 4T4
BLOG / NEWS Updates
Scotiabank: Canada Housing Market: Market conditions tightened in october, but house prices are still facing headwinds
After a decline in September, housing sales in October were back on their upward trend that started last April. This sales performance and a decline in new listings contributed to tighten the sales-to-new listings ratio in October. Also, during that month, the national MLS House Price Index posted its first monthly risealbeit modestsince November 2024.
Unit sales rose nationally by 0.9% (sa figures) from September to October, partially offsetting the -1.6% decline from August to September. Sales are back on the upward trend they have been exhibiting since their most recent trough in March of this year when economic uncertainty was rising with trade tensions. From the same month in 2024, sales declined -4.3% (nsa) in October. National new listings posted a -1.4% (sa) monthly decline in October, the second in a row with a -0.8% decline in the previous month. Despite these monthly declines, new listings have been generally trending up in 2025, and in October were higher by 4.3% (nsa) than in the same month in 2024.
With the monthly rise in national (unit) sales and the decline in new listings, the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened (rose) by 1.2 percentage point in October to 52.2% (sa), still in the lower half of the estimated balanced conditions range for this indicator. The other indicator of market tightness we trackmonths of inventorywas at 4.4 nationally in October (sa figures), mostly stable at that level since July of this year, and below its 5.2 long-term (pre-pandemic) average. As in previous months, this market-tightness indicator was below its long-term average in most provinces, except in British Columbia and Ontario at 0.9 months above this average for both.
For the first time since November 2024, the national MLS House Price Index (MLS HPI) posted a monthly rise in October, but relatively modest at +0.2% (sa). This price index declined -3.0% (nsa) from the same month last year and, from sa figures, is now 26.7% above its December 2019 level but nearly 18% below its February 2022 historical peak.
From September to October 2025, sales increased in 18 of the 30 reported local markets we monitor while the sales-to-new listings ratio tightened (increased) in 17 of these markets. But as for Canada, this latter indicator of market conditions cooled in 22 of these markets.
https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.november-17--2025.html
NBC Housing Market Monitor: Home sales increased in October
Canadian home resales increased by 0.9% from September to October, the sixth increase in the last seven months. Despite the recovery in previous months, sales were still 7.5% below their most recent peak in November 2024.
On the supply side, new listings declined 1.4% from September to October, a second consecutive decline.
Active listings increased by 0.9% in October, following a contraction in the prior month as cancelled listings have recently moderated.
Market conditions remained unchanged during the month and continued to indicate a balanced market compared to the historical average. Still, this largely reflects soft conditions in Ontario and B.C., while markets in all other provinces continue to favour sellers.
Housing starts fell 16.6% in October to a seven-month low of 232.8K (seasonally adjusted and annualized). The loss was concentrated in Ontario, where starts plunged 51.8% in the month, largely because of a 61.7% decline in Toronto. Vancouver also saw a decrease (-16.9% to 19.4K), while Calgary (+37.9% to 36.1K) and Montreal (+8.7% to a 16-month high of 33.6K) posted gains.
The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price IndexTM rose 0.4% from September to October after seasonal adjustment, marking a third consecutive increase for this indicator. Eight of the 11 CMAs included in the index saw increases, led by Quebec City (+2.5%), Winnipeg (+1.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.4%) and Victoria (+0.6%). From October 2024 to October 2025, the composite index fell by 2.6%, on decreases in Toronto (-7.2%), Vancouver (-4.5%) and Hamilton (-4.0%). These declines were partially offset by gains in Quebec City (+15.7%), Winnipeg (+5.4%) and Edmonton (+5.3%)
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf
BMO Survey: Three-in-Five Canadians Adjust Holiday Spending Plans Amid Tariff Concerns
Among the 61% who have adjusted their holiday shopping plans due to tariff concerns, one quarter (25%) started holiday shopping earlier this year to avoid potential price increases as a result of tariffs.
41% will cut back on spending this holiday season.
Canadians plan on spending an average of $2,310 this holiday season.
The latest BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals 61% of Canadians are changing their holiday spending plans this year in anticipation of rising costs caused by tariffs.
37% are trying to buy gifts minimally affected by tariffs, including purchasing goods made in Canada.
25% started their holiday shopping earlier to avoid potential price increases.
15% are budgeting to spend more on gifts in anticipation of higher prices.
In the wake of recent tariff increases, rising unemployment, and an upturn in inflation, its not surprising that Canadian consumers are feeling a sense of trepidation heading into the holiday season, said Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist, BMO. Though not elevated, annual CPI inflation has picked up to 2.4% in September after remaining below 2% in the previous five months, partly due to a 3.8% rise in food costs. By weakening the economy, the trade war has lifted the unemployment rate, undermining consumer confidence and income growth.
https://newsroom.bmo.com/2025-11-14-BMO-Survey-Three-in-Five-Canadians-Adjust-Holiday-Spending-Plans-Amid-Tariff-Concerns
