HOME RATES ABOUT SERVICES VIDEO BLOG CONTACT ME TEAM
AGENT LICENSE ID
503985
BROKERAGE LICENSE ID
x026191
Betty Chen Mortgage Broker

Betty Chen

Mortgage Broker


Phone:
Address:
2183 240th Street, Langley, British Columbia

BROWSE

PARTNERS

COMPLETE

THE SURVEY

REFER

A FRIEND

NBC BoC Policy Monitor: Price progress = Policy pivot

6/7/2024

From National Bank of Canada

In the first rate decision with material uncertainty in a year, the BoC opted lower the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points, a decision in line with market expectations and the consensus forecast. This makes the BoC the first G7 central bank to ease policy this year, though the ECB is widely expected to follow suit tomorrow. Citing clear progress in core inflation, in addition to ongoing sub-potential growth and a rebalancing labour market, the press release noted “monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive”.

The focus now turns to the pacing of cuts in this nascent easing cycle. In the opening statement to the presser, Macklem said it’s reasonable to expect further easing as long as inflation continues to ease. That puts a July cut squarely in focus and we’d be inclined to bet they will ease again at the next meeting. At the same time, we’d note that earlier BoC communications indicated that monetary policy easing this year would be “gradual”. Macklem confirmed this view in the press conference. So although back-to-back cuts may be instituted to start, we’re skeptical they’ll continue at the same pace thereafter. We agree with market expectations that 50 basis points of additional rate relief is appropriate in 2024. In contrast, the consensus sees this marking the start of a more aggressive easing campaign. The median expectation is for a 4% policy rate by year-end. Three more cuts over the last four decisions of the year, isn’t a pace of cuts we would characterize as gradual and isn’t as likely to materialize barring a more material slowdown in the economy.

The Bank’s next decision will take place on July 24th. The Summary of Deliberations for today’s decision will be released on June 19th.

https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf

MY LENDERS

Scotia Bank TD Bank First National EQ Bank MCAP Merix
Home Trust CMLS Manulife RFA B2B Bank Community Trust
Lifecycle Mortgage ICICI Bank Radius Financial HomeEquity Bank CMI Bridgewater
Sequence Capital Wealth One Fisgard Capital Bloom Financial NationalBank