DIANE SAINSBURY

2024 is playing out largely as expected across Canadas regional landscape, with most of the Prairie and Atlantic provinces leading economic growth while Ontario, B.C., and Quebec lag. A number of regions are capping off this year displaying moderately stronger momentum in economic growth and job creation than we had envisaged in September. However, any upgrades to 2025 provincial growth forecasts reflecting this positive hand-off have been neutralized by downside growth risks on Canada owing to the imposition of tariffs by the new U.S. administration. The president-elect has threatened to impose a 25% across-the-board tariff on Canadian exports. We assume that Canada will manage to avert this outcome, partly reflecting the energy-heavy nature of its exports to the U.S. Still, this regional forecast incorporates some chill to investment and hiring due to the tariff threat that is likely to linger. Importantly, no province would escape the fallout from a Canada/U.S. trade skirmish, with U.S. export exposure ranging from about 80-90% in Alberta, New Brunswick, and Ontario to a still-lofty 50-60% in B.C and Saskatchewan. Beyond the first-order effects from tariffs on exports, provinces would also feel the hit through damage to other trading partners. PEI, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba source a comparatively large share of their imports from the U.S., potentially leaving them exposed to inflation pressures should Canada impose tariffs of its own. The countrys population growth is set to stall over the next two years through planned reductions in both the pool of non-permanent residents (NPRs) and a scaling back in its annual permanent immigration targets. Ontario, B.C. and Quebec will likely see population growth pull back the fastest. Meanwhile, ongoing affordability advantages in the Prairies and some Maritime provinces will remain a lure for interprovincial migrants. A wave of federal government stimulus is set to reach Canadian consumers in the coming months, with Ontario set to roll out its own measure in the new year. Combined with ongoing interest rate reductions, we expect consumer spending growth to pick up across the provinces despite slower population growth. Provinces with the highest debt burdens, namely B.C., Ontario, and Alberta, should disproportionately benefit from easing conditions. Housing markets across the country are also poised to benefit from supportive federal measures, and gradually falling short-term interest rates. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast

The Bank of Canada lowered the target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points for the second straight meeting, a decision in line with consensus and market expectations. This is the fifth rate reduction in as many meetings and brings the policy rate to 3.25%, or the upper end of the BoCs estimated neutral range (2.25% to 3.25%). The move also pushes the BoCs policy rate 150 bps below the Federal Reserves upper bound target, the most since 1997 (although that gap will likely narrow next week). Meanwhile, balance sheet normalization will continue as expected. Here are additional highlights from the communique and the opening statement to the press conference: Driving the decision to cut 50 bps was inflation around 2%, excess supply and softer growth ahead relative to earlier expectations. Macklem added in the opening statement to the press conference that monetary policy no longer needs to be clearly in restrictive territory. As for forward rate guidance, the press release notes we will be evaluating the need for further reductions in the policy rate one decision at a time. In the presser, Macklem said they expect a more gradual approach to monetary policy if the economy evolves broadly as expected. Note they no longer explicitly say they expect to cut their policy rate further. The statement notes that Q3 growth was somewhat below the Banks projection and Q4 growth looks weaker than projected. Slower immigration will ease growth in 2025 while proposed fiscal measures will support demand. They will look through temporary demand effects. The press release highlights that job growth continues to grow slower than labour supply. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity. As for inflation, they still expect CPI to hover around 2% for the next couple of years. They note that the GST holiday will temporarily lower inflation but that will be unwound once the holiday ends. Therefore, watching core inflation will be critical to see underlying trends. The Bank didnt have much to say on tariff threats other than noting that these have increased uncertainty and clouded the economic outlook. \ https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 3%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy is evolving largely as expected in the Banks October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy continues to show broad-based strength, with robust consumption and a solid labour market. US inflation has been holding steady, with some price pressures persisting. In the euro area, recent indicators point to weaker growth. In China, recent policy actions combined with strong exports are supporting growth, but household spending remains subdued. Global financial conditions have eased and the Canadian dollar has depreciated in the face of broad-based strength in the US dollar. In Canada, the economy grew by 1% in the third quarter, somewhat below the Banks October projection, and the fourth quarter also looks weaker than projected. Third-quarter GDP growth was pulled down by business investment, inventories and exports. In contrast, consumer spending and housing activity both picked up, suggesting lower interest rates are beginning to boost household spending. Historical revisions to the National Accounts have increased the level of GDP over the past three years, largely reflecting higher investment and consumption. The unemployment rate rose to 6.8% in November as employment continued to grow more slowly than the labour force. Wage growth showed some signs of easing, but remains elevated relative to productivity. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/12/fad-press-release-2024-12-11/

From Scotiabank There are many uncertainties about the economic outlook as President Trump is set to take the helm of the United States. Those range from uncertainty about the policy actions he will take to uncertainty about the impact of those very policies. A case in point is the recent statement that he would implement tariffs hikes of 25% on all imports from Canada and Mexico, and 10% on imports from China. While we do not believe these tariffs will be implemented (see here), it is very likely that over the next several months, economic forecasts will need to present some alternative paths for the economy around a central scenario. Those alternative scenarios are likely to represent choices made by forecasters as to which policy assumption to include in their forecasts. Only when policy measures will actually be announced and implemented will uncertainty around the policy environment diminish. Given its critical nature to Canada and other trading partners, and to the U.S. itself of course, we thought it would be helpful to provide some rough rules of thumb for estimating the impact of trade policy changes on Canada and the U.S. These rules of thumb, derived from our macroeconometric model of the U.S. and Canadian economies, while by no means meant to be exact, are designed to help provide a quick and dirty assessment of the impact of changes in tariffs on the economy, inflation, and interest rates in both countries. Click to read more https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.insights-views.tariffs--november-28--2024-.html

Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems increased 7.7% on a month-over-month basis in October 2024, reaching its highest level since April 2022. Rising home sales activity was broad based, with the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and British Columbias Lower Mainland recording double-digit increases in October. The jump in home sales last month was definitely an October surprise, although with the big interest rate cut of 50 basis points announced during the last week of the month, the increase was more likely related to the surge in new listings we saw in September, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. There probably wont be another rush of new supply like that until next spring, and at that point, mortgage rates should be close to their expected lows, as well. With that in mind, you can think of the October numbers as a sort of preview for what we might expect to see next year. New listings posted a 3.5% month-over-month decline in October, although that followed on the heels of a 4.8% jump in September, so new supply remains at some of the highest levels since mid-2022. The national pullback in October was led by a drop in new supply in the GTA. With sales rising considerably in October and new listings falling, the national sales-to-new listings ratio tightened to 58%, up from 52% in September. The long-term average for the national sales-to-new listings ratio is 55%, with a sales-to-new listings ratio between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

Condominium apartments are the most common type of property owned by investors in census metropolitan areas (CMAs) like Toronto and Vancouver. In 2022, nearly two in five condominium apartments (38.9%) in the Toronto CMA were investment properties, while this was the case for about one in three (34.2%) in the Vancouver CMA. In these CMAs, new condominium apartment projects often rely on presales to investors to be built. Investors buy pre-construction units with the goal of making a profit when the buildings are completeeither by renting them out or by selling the unit at a higher price. These pre-construction sales are used by developers to secure financing for the projects. This dynamic means that investor preferences may have an influence on the type of buildings that get built. One concern with this process is that it may lead to the construction of more properties with smaller units. Investors are perceived to prefer these units because rent per square foot of living area tends to be higher for smaller units. This may have contributed to the shrinking size of condominium apartments in CMAs. For example, in the Toronto CMA, the median living area of condominium apartments built in the 1990s was 947 square feet, compared with 640 square feet for those built after 2016. In the Vancouver CMA, the median size also declined over the same period, from 912 square feet to 790. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/241003/dq241003a-eng.htm