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CMHC: Canadian Home Sales Begin 2026 on Ice as Snow Buries Central Canada

2/18/2026

The number of home sales recorded over Canadian MLS® Systems fell 5.8% on a month-over-month basis in January 2026.

“The monthly decline in national home sales was driven primarily by less activity in the Greater Golden Horseshoe and Southwestern Ontario, suggesting that the story was probably more about a historic winter storm than a downshift in demand,” said Shaun Cathcart, CREA’s Senior Economist. “Notwithstanding the chilly start to the year, we continue to expect 2026 will ultimately be defined by pent-up demand from first-time buyers finally seeing a chance to enter the market.”

January Highlights:

  • National home sales declined 5.8% month-over-month.
  • Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 16.2% below January 2025.
  • The number of newly listed properties jumped 7.3% on a month-over-month basis.
  • The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) fell 0.9% month-over-month and was down 4.9% on a year-over-year basis.
  • The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price dipped 2.6% on a year-over-year basis in January 2026.

Similar to what happened in January 2025, new supply jumped on a month-over-month basis in January 2026, rising 7.3% as sellers seemed eager to get the year started.

The burst of new supply was driven by about two-thirds of local markets, and led by Montreal, Quebec City, Calgary, Greater Vancouver, and Victoria. Meanwhile, Central and Southwestern Ontario were far less prominent and, in many cases, recorded declines. This reinforces the view that winter weather was a primary factor in January in those regions, as it appears to have suppressed both demand and supply.

https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/home-sales-in-canada-end-2025-quietly-2/

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