Dan Wowk

Key Takeaways for 2024 Overall, the Canadian mortgage landscape in 2024 was relatively similar to 2023. The rate of mortgages contracted in the last 18 months were stable. Renewing vs buying. Consumers renewing their mortgage increased (62% vs 58% in 2023) whereas repeat buyers and first-time buyers decreased. Significantly more mortgage consumers were impacted this year by rising interest rates (65% vs 50% in 2023). However, most consumers had strategies in place to avoid defaulting on their mortgage. It took an average of 4.2 years for consumers to save for a down payment, with 30% of buyers receiving a gift to help with the cost. While consumers continue to have concerns or uncertainty during the home buying process, the majority (79%) still believe it is a good long-term financial investment. Nearly three times as many buyers this year said high interest rates made them delay buying a home (13% vs 5% in 2023). First-time homebuyers and newcomers were the most likely to postpone. The vast majority of consumers did research before their most recent mortgage transaction, with 52% of consumers researching exclusively online, compared to just 34% in 2023. Going green. Among homeowners who did energy efficient renovations, 93% are satisfied with the results of their renovations and 68% saw savings in their energy/electricity bills. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/surveys/mortgage-consumer-surveys/survey-results-2024/2024-cmhc-mortgage-consumer-survey-en.pdf

From TD Economics As we had anticipated, its been a quiet spring selling season. Elevated borrowing costs and Bank of Canada uncertainty have kept buyers on the sidelines through May, leaving Canadian home sales at the lower end of their pre-Covid levels. Canadian average home prices have managed to grind higher so far this spring, but largely due to a shift to more expensive homes being sold. In contrast, benchmark prices (which are a more like for like measure) have declined. The resale market is still projected to gain traction in the second half of 2024, although weve dialed back the expected pace of gains in sales and prices relative to our March forecast. This is because borrowing costs are unlikely to fall as much as previously thought, with one fewer cut expected by the Bank of Canada this year. Whats more, the U.S. central bank is now likely to begin cutting its policy rate late in 2024, instead of the summer, which has spilled over to more limited declines in Canadian bond yields over the remainder of this year. 2025 growth forecasts for Canadian home sales and average home prices have been lifted, however, as downgraded activity in 2024 yields additional pent-up demand waiting to be unleashed, and more meaningful rate relief is delivered. Were retaining our view that price growth will outperform in the Prairies going forward, lifted by tight markets, historically strong population growth, solid affordability conditions, and economic outperformance. Elsewhere, relatively tight supply/demand balances should keep prices on the rise in Quebec and the Atlantic, although notable affordability deteriorations will prevent even stronger gains. Interprovincial migration has also begun to slow in the Atlantic, weighing on what is likely a key source of ownership demand in the region. In Ontario and B.C., average home price growth should benefit from the strongest sales gains in the country moving forward, with pent-up demand driving a recovery in activity from low levels in these two markets. In the near-term, price growth will be restrained by loose supply/demand conditions, although compositional forces could offer some offset in Ontario, as theyve done in recent months. Thereafter, historically challenging affordability backdrops should cap the pace of gains taking place in the two regions. https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook