Andreia Brazil
Mortgage Broker
Office:
Phone:
Address:
#106 2626 Croydon Drive, Surrey, British Columbia
BROWSE
PARTNERS​Helping Dreamers become Homeowners!
BLOG / NEWS Updates
Canadian labour force: What will happen once baby boomers retire?
This study uses several demographic scenarios to illustrate how Canadas labour force could evolve from 2023 to 2041. This projection exercise produced a number of findings.
Despite the baby boomer cohorts retiring, the size of Canadas labour force is likely to increase over the next few years because of migratory increase. The scenarios show that the size of the labour force is sensitive to both immigration levels and above all, the participation rate of the Canadian population. If labour force participation in Canada in 2041 reached the same intensity as in Japan, the size of the Canadian labour force would increase in a similar way to the scenario in which 750,000 permanent immigrants are admitted annually. The increase in the overall participation rate would be five times higher in the scenario where participation rates in Canada converge toward those currently observed in Japan, compared with the increase observed in the scenario in which Canada admits 750,000 immigrants annually. The scenario in which participation rates converge toward those observed in Japan, while unlikely given the significant differences between the two societies, nevertheless illustrates the potential impact of an increase in Canadians participation rate on the growth and demographic weight of the labour force.
Canadas strong population growth, driven by large-scale immigration, brings both opportunities and challenges. While it increases the size of the labour force, it has a limited impact on the overall labour force participation rate and on the aging and renewal of the labour force. Beyond its purely demographic impact, immigration also exerts pressure on housing supply, infrastructure construction and the provision of services to the population, while also addressing unfilled job demands in certain employment sectors.
The results of this population projection exercise show that immigration is not the only lever for influencing the evolution of the Canadian labour force. According to the projections, various processes will stabilize at the start of the 2030s, when the last baby boomers turn 65. Furthermore, the projections show that immigration levels would not significantly influence the aging or rejuvenation of the future labour force if they remained relatively constant over time.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2024001/article/00005-eng.htm
Short-term rentals in the Canadian housing market
The role of short-term rentals (STRs) in Canadas housing challenges remains a subject of ongoing policy debate in many Canadian cities. While there is a widespread notion that such rentals limit the availability of long-term housing, empirical analysis of their impacts has produced mixed results. This paper provides an overview of STR activity across Canada.
The paper focuses on the subset of STRs that could potentially serve as long-term housing. This subset of STRs, referred to as potential long-term dwellings (PLTDs), is intended to capture STR units that are not serving as anyones primary residence, but could potentially function as long-term housing (either as owner-occupied or rental units). The PLTD subset comprises entire units listed for more than 180 days a year, excluding vacation-type properties.
Previous research indicates that STR activity plays an increasingly significant role in the Canadian accommodation services subsector, with its share of revenues rising from an estimated 7.0% in 2017 to 15.2% in 2021. However, in the housing market, STRs still account for a small proportion of total housing units. In 2023, the estimated number of PLTDs in Canada was 107,266, a figure that represents less than 1% of total housing units in Canada. PLTDs also accounted for a small share of total housing units in Canadas largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs). However, the share of PLTDs was higher in tourist areas, particularly around ski hills. In Whistler, they constituted 35.0% of all housing units, while in Mont-Tremblant, their share was 16.4%.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-621-m/11-621-m2024010-eng.htm
Summertime and the easing is easy
For the second time in as many meetings, the Bank of Canada lowered the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points, a decision in line with the consensus and market expectations. The rate reduction brings the policy rate to 4.50%, fully unwinding the two rate hikes delivered in June and July 2023. This move also pushes the BoCs policy rate 100 bps below the Federal Reserves (based on the upper bound target), marking the largest negative gap since the late 1990s. Despite the consecutive cuts and upward pressure on CORRA, balance sheet normalization will continue (as expected). Here are additional highlights from the communique and the opening statement to the press conference:
Driving the decision to cut was broad price pressures continuing to ease and ongoing excess supply lowering inflationary pressures.
Once again, there wasnt really any forward rate guidance in the press release but the opening statement to the presser reiterated that it is reasonable to expect further cuts if inflation eases in line with their forecast. He added that downside risks are taking on increased weight in our monetary policy deliberations. Note that the statement dropped the focus items that theyd previously been referring to (i.e., the balance between demand and supply, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour). Instead, incoming information will guide future decisions.
The statement notes that excess supply is growing: With robust population growth of about 3%, the economys potential output is still growing faster than GDP, which means excess supply has increased.
On the labour market, they highlight that there are signs of slack with labour force growth outpacing employment and job seekers having more trouble finding work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderating but remains elevated.
As for inflation, the statement notes that broad inflationary pressures are easing although shelter and some services inflation remains elevated. Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation.
https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf
