Lou Salvino

CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report

11/6/2024

HIGHLIGHTS Renewal risk remains as 1.2 million mortgages will come up for renewal in 2025. Most of these will experience higher interest rates than when their term began: 85% of those were contracted when the Bank of Canada rate was at or below 1%. The mortgage delinquency rate continued to rise from historic low levels in 2024, reaching 0.19% in the second quarter, with delinquency rates on other credit products, and allowances for expected credit losses both suggesting it will continue to increase through 2025. However, this remains below pre-pandemic levels and well below averages since 1990. Traditional lenders experienced two very different quarters to begin 2024. The first quarter showed higher risk lending compared to 2023, but in the second quarter newly extended mortgages had lower risk based on traditional risk metrics. Overall mortgage debt increased to $2.2 trillion in July 2024, which exacerbates the vulnerability of elevated household debt. This growth (3.5% year-over-year) is below recent averages, but lower interest rates could accelerate the increase. Alternative lenders saw an increase in lending during the first quarter of this year compared to the fourth quarter of 2023, indicating renewed momentum to sustain their market share from a year ago. However, their risk profile has increased compared to last year. Mortgages with terms of three or more years but less than five years are the most popular, with over half of new mortgages having terms in this range. The traditional five-year, fixed-rate mortgage and variable rate mortgage both represent a small share of the newly extended loans. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report/2024/residential-mortgage-industry-report-fall-2024-en.pdf

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BMO: Consumers plan to spend less this holiday season

11/1/2024

The BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals that amid growing concerns about the cost of living (54%) and their overall financial situation (36%) 79% of Canadians are planning to cut back on spending this holiday season. The surveys insights provide an outlook on Canadians holiday spending plans, including: The holiday price tag: On average, Canadians plan on spending more than $1,991 this holiday season, including travel ($1,802), holiday gifts ($519), entertaining ($295), decorations ($141) and other holiday expenses ($275). Nearly a quarter (23%) plan on spending more than $2,000 during the holidays. Making a list and checking it twice: 79% plan on buying fewer gifts this year, and over a quarter (27%) will cut down the number of people on their gift list. More than a third (36%) plan on buying less expensive gifts. Sleighing spending: 41% are spending less on fewer gifts, and 44% had cut back on spending on other occasions, including birthdays and anniversaries, throughout the year in order to spend more on holiday gifts. Nearly half (49%) admit to spending more than they know they should. https://about.bmo.com/consumers-plan-to-spend-less-this-holiday-season-heres-how-bmo-can-help-make-holiday-budgeting-easier/

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TD: Mortgage Rule Changes to Add Fuel to Canadian Housing Recovery

10/30/2024

Report by TD Economics Highlights On December 15th, the federal government will roll out mortgage rule changes that make it easier to purchase a home for those taking out insured mortgages. These measures should offer a lift to Canadian home sales and prices next year. However, their impact will be blunted by an array of factors, including the affordability erosion induced by their implementation. Mitigating the impacts of these policies may be positive from a financial stability perspective, as the measures will likely encourage households to take on more debt at a longer term, and insured borrowers have typically been more prone to bouts of financial stress. The federal government has recently announced two changes to Canadian mortgage rules (effective December 15th, 2024) that will make it easier to qualify for purchasing a home. As the surge in home sales early in 2024 (amid a steep drop in bond yields at the end of last year) and in the spring of 2023 (after the Bank of Canada paused its rate hiking campaign) taught us, Canadian housing market activity can be highly reactive. Yet, we dont think that these measures alone will unleash a housing boom. Instead, theyll likely offer a secondary tailwind to a market thats already gaining decent traction in 2025 on the back of lower borrowing costs and a gradually improving economy (see here). Whats more, the affordability boost offered by these measures will likely also erode as home prices are raised by their implementation, thereby limiting their effectiveness. https://economics.td.com/ca-mortgage-rule-changes

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NBC BoC Policy Monitor: No more quarter pounders… Super-size me!

10/25/2024

Rate Statement The rate cutting cycle was turned up a notch as the Bank of Canada lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 3.75%, a decision in line with consensus and market expectations. This fourth cut in as many meetings marks a cumulative rate reduction of 125 basis points and brings the policy rate to its lowest point since December 2022. The move also pushes the BoCs policy rate 125 basis points below the Federal Reserves, though an expected November Fed cut would narrow that gap. Meanwhile, balance sheet normalization will continue as expected. Here are some additional highlights from the communique and the opening statement to the press conference: Driving the decision to cut 50 bps was a desire to support economic growth and to keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range. As for forward rate guidance, the Bank says, we expect to reduce the policy rate further if the economy evolves broadly in line with our latest forecast. As always, the timing and pace of further cuts, will be guided by incoming information. Despite recent soft data, the Bank still expects relatively solid GDP growth ahead: GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. The Bank appears to be looking the strength of the September jobs report, as the statement simply says the labour market remains soft. Still, they note that wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. The Bank highlights that inflation has declined significantly thanks to excess supply in the economy. The breadth of price increases have normalized, as have inflation expectations. Policymakers now expect inflation to remain close to target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures roughly balancing out. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf

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Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 50 basis points to 3¾%

10/23/2024

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The Bank continues to expect the global economy to expand at a rate of about 3% over the next two years. Growth in the United States is now expected to be stronger than previously forecast while the outlook for China remains subdued. Growth in the euro area has been soft but should recover modestly next year. Inflation in advanced economies has declined in recent months, and is now around central bank targets. Global financial conditions have eased since July, in part because of market expectations of lower policy interest rates. Global oil prices are about $10 lower than assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In Canada, the economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and we expect growth of 1% in the second half. Consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis. Exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline. The labour market remains softthe unemployment rate was at 6.5% in September. Population growth has continued to expand the labour force while hiring has been modest. This has particularly affected young people and newcomers to Canada. Wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply. GDP growth is forecast to strengthen gradually over the projection horizon, supported by lower interest rates. This forecast largely reflects the net effect of a gradual pick up in consumer spending per person and slower population growth. Residential investment growth is also projected to rise as strong demand for housing lifts sales and spending on renovations. Business investment is expected to strengthen as demand picks up, and exports should remain strong, supported by robust demand from the United States. Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026. As the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/10/fad-press-release-2024-10-23/

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NBC Housing Market Monitor: Housing market remained sluggish in September

10/18/2024

Home sales edged up 1.9% between August and September, a third increase in four months. On the supply side, new listings jumped 4.9% from August to September, the eighth advance in nine months and the largest increase since July 2023. As a result, they are now at their highest level since February 2022. Active listings edged down 0.5% in September from their highest level since March 2020, the second decrease in three months. Meanwhile, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) decreased from 4.2 to 4.1 during the month, a level roughly back in line with its pre-pandemic level. Market conditions tightened marginally in September and remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces. They were roughly balanced in B.C. and softer than average in Ontario. Housing starts increased 10.8K in September to 223.8K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result below the median economist forecast calling for a 235.0K print. The monthly increase was solely driven by a rise in urban starts (+11K to 210.0K), which were mainly supported by the multi-family segment (+8.6K to 163.4K) while the single-family segment was up marginally (+2.4K to 46.6K). Starts were up in Calgary (+4.4K to 24.3K) and Vancouver (+3.0K to 23.4K) but declined in Toronto (-4.2K to 20.5K) and Montral (-2.1K to 13.0K). At the provincial level, the increases in total starts were registered in British Columbia (+9.3K to 44.0K), Ontario (+4.1K to 64.6K) and Saskatchewan (+2.6K to 6.1K), while the most notable declines were seen in Alberta (-1.5K to 46.8K), and Qubec (-1.1K to 40.3K). The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.5% from August to September after adjustment for seasonal effects. Eight of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Montreal (+2.4%), Winnipeg (+1.8%), Victoria (+1.2%), Edmonton (+1.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.9%), Halifax (+0.8%), Calgary (+0.5%) and Toronto (+0.3%). Conversely, declines occurred in Quebec City (-0.9%), Hamilton (-0.6%) and Vancouver (-0.2%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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CREA National Statistics: Canadian Home Sales Edge Up Again Following Third Interest Rate Cut

10/16/2024

Following the Bank of Canadas third interest rate cut of the year, national home sales increased slightly in September compared to August. This follows a similar pattern of gains recorded in the months following the first two rate cuts. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems climbed 1.9% on a month-over-month basis in September 2024, reaching their highest level since July 2023. The national increase was led by the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton-Burlington, Montreal and Quebec City, as well as Greater Vancouver and Victoria. Sales gains are now three for three in the months following interest rate cuts, which is a trend even though the increases werent headline-grabbing, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. That said, with the pace of rate cuts now expected to be much faster than previously thought, its possible some buyers may choose to hold off on a purchase for now. This could further boost the rebound expected in 2025 at the expense of the last few months of this year. Highlights: National home sales rose 1.9% month-over-month in September. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 6.9% above September 2023. The number of newly listed properties jumped 4.9% month-over-month. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) inched up 0.1 % month-over-month but was still down 3.3% on a year-over-year basis. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was up 2.1% on a year-over-year basis in September. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

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CMHC: Fall 2024 Housing Supply Report

10/11/2024

Total housing starts in the 6 largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs) rose by 4% in the first half of 2024 compared to the same period in 2023. The level of new construction (68,639 units) was the second strongest since 1990. However, when adjusted for population size, combined housing starts were close to the historical average and werent enough to meet growing demographic demand. Calgary and Edmonton led the growth in housing starts due to record interprovincial migration in recent years, driven by their lower cost for housing and favourable economic conditions. In contrast, housing starts decreased in Toronto, Vancouver and Ottawa. Apartment starts in the 6 CMAs increased slightly, driven by rental construction. Nearly half of the apartments started in the first half of 2024 were purpose-built rentals the highest share on record. This trend aligns with demographic changes and declining homeownership affordability. Except for Calgary and Edmonton, condominium apartment starts fell in the first 6 months of 2024 a trend we expect will continue as developers struggle to reach the minimum pre-construction sales needed to start construction. Both investors and end users have significantly reduced their purchases of new condominiums because of the impact of higher interest rates. Developers prioritized clearing backlogs of projects under construction. As a result, apartment completions increased across the 6 CMAs, setting new records in each one except Montral and Vancouver. Municipalities and provinces are working actively to increase housing supply and variety, with policies aimed at better meeting the needs of a broad range of buyers and renters. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market/housing-supply-report

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Scotiabank: Shifting Priorities at the Bank of Canada

10/9/2024

From Scotiabank As the reduction in inflation takes hold and economic activity slows down, the Bank of Canada seems to be shifting its priority from inflation control to worries about growth. Using a monetary policy reaction function that estimates the weight on inflation and the output gap over time, we find empirically that that Bank of Canada is now putting more weight on the output gap. This is a break from the last two years in which the estimated weight on inflation dominated that placed on the output gap. Our model suggests that as of 2024Q4, the BoC will focus more on eliminating this economic slack than on fighting inflation. Our current forecast is that the Bank of Canada cuts by 25 bps at each of the two remaining meetings this year. This work suggests there is a risk that Governor Macklem will be more aggressive than that if he indeed is putting more weight on growth going forward. That would translate into a risk of a 50 bps cut at one of these meetings. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.inflation-reports.boc-rate--october-2--2024.html

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TD Canadian Housing Outlook: When the Trickle Becomes a Flood

10/4/2024

Report by TD Economics The Canadian 5-year bond yield has declined over 100 bps since early May, while the Bank of Canada has cut its policy rate 3 times (with two more likely on tap this year). In short, the interest rate environment has significantly improved. Housing market activity is stirring, yet Canadian sales gains have, thus far, trailed what could typically be expected given this rush of rate relief. We chalk up the surprisingly subdued performance to two factors. The first is the continued strained affordability backdrop. Despite their recent decline, rates remain at levels last seen about 15 years ago. And, the second factor relates to the transparent messaging from central bankers that interest rates are set to fall even further. This is keeping potential buyers temporarily sidelined as they wait for additional cuts. The flat trend in Canadian average home prices since the summer means they havent really been penalized for that choice. This relative stillness will likely only last so long. Indeed, conditions are in place for a solid pickup in resale activity. Alongside a further steady decline in the BoCs overnight rate, economic growth is likely to regain some traction going forward, and the federal government will roll out meaningful changes to mortgage rules that will support homebuying at the end of the year. Now, first-time homebuyers (and those that purchase new builds) can access 30-year amortizations (instead of 25), thereby lowering their monthly mortgage obligation. Also, the cap on which a buyer can qualify for an insured mortgage has been raised from $1 million to $1.5 million. This means that, for example, a purchaser who buys a detached home in Toronto valued at $1.2 million (the median price in August) could put down about $95k as a downpayment, instead of needing $240k as before. The federal measures should help unlock powerful gains in Canadian sales and average home prices across Canada in the first half of 2025. However, part of this story will be that some activity that wouldve taken place this year is pushed into 2025, as buyers wait for the new rules to commence before purchasing. https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook

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Economic growth during uncertain times

10/2/2024

From the Bank of Canada In June, we began lowering our policy interest rate. We cut the policy rate at our last three decisions, for a cumulative decline of 75 basis points to 4.25%. Our most recent decision on September 4th reflected two main considerations. First, we noted that headline and core inflation had continued to ease as expected. Second, we said that as inflation gets closer to target, we want to see economic growth pick up to absorb the slack in the economy. Since then, weve been pleased to see inflation come all the way back to the 2% target. It has been a long journey. Now we want to keep inflation close to the centre of the 1%3% inflation-control band. We need to stick the landing. What does this mean for interest rates? With the continued progress weve seen on inflation, it is reasonable to expect further cuts in our policy rate. The timing and pace will be determined by incoming data and our assessment of what those data mean for future inflation. As always, we try to be as clear as we can about what we are watching as we chart the course for monetary policy. Economic growth picked up in the first half of this year, and we want to see it strengthen further so that inflation stays close to the 2% target. Some recent indicators suggest growth may not be as strong as we expected. We will be closely watching consumer spending, as well as business hiring and investment. We will also be looking for continued easing in core inflation, which is still a little above 2%. Shelter cost inflation remains elevated but has started to come down, and we are looking for it to moderate further. Our next decision is October 23rd. And we will have a revised economic outlook at that time. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/09/economic-growth-during-uncertain-times/

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TD Provincial Economic Forecast: Rate Cuts Heal With Time

9/27/2024

Report by TD Economics Were most of the way through 2024, and the data seems to be adhering to our long-held view that the Atlantic Region and Prairies would outperform, in terms of GDP growth, this year. We continue to expect Ontario, Quebec, and B.C. to trail the pack. However, the former two provinces have benefitted from growth upgrades for 2024, leaving B.C. as the laggard. Consumption has held up well across Canada so far this year, supported by resilience in Ontario and Quebec and relative strength in the Atlantic. Going forward, a downgraded profile for borrowing costs will offer more of a boost to household spending across Canada than wed previously thought. However, a chunk of highly indebted households in regions like Ontario and B.C. will have to contend with mortgage renewals at (likely much) higher rates. Housing markets are also poised to receive a lift from lower-than-expected interest rates. Indeed, weve notably upgraded our 2024 and 2025 home price forecasts across nearly all provinces except Ontario, where strained affordability and problems in the condo sector will likely weigh. Lower rates are a benefit to homebuilding as well, although we still see Canadian housing starts cooling through 2025 given low home sales levels in the past few years. At last count (Q2-2024), Canadian population growth continued to surge. Specifically, Canadas Big 4 provinces have yet to see any meaningful impact from recently announced federal policies to reduce the pool of non-permanent residents. We expect the effect of these policies to be significant and become evident beginning in Q4-2024, providing an impetus for a meaningful slowdown in population growth across the nation. Population-fueled labour force gains have outpaced employment for most of this year, driving the national unemployment rate to its highest point since mid-2021. Notably, Ontario, Alberta and Quebec have seen the most material increases in their unemployment rates. With population gains expected to cool, the jobless rate is projected to peak at the turn of the year before gently pulling back in 2025. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast

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NBC Housing Market Monitor: Housing market remained sluggish in August

9/24/2024

Summary Home sales edged up 1.3% between July and August, following a 0.6% decrease the previous month. On the supply side, new listings edged up 1.1% from July to August, the seventh advance in eight months. They are now at their highest level since June 2022. Active listings edged down 1.1% in August from their highest level since March 2020, the second decrease in six months. Meanwhile, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) edged down from 4.2 to 4.1 during the month, a level roughly back in line with its pre-pandemic level. Market conditions tightened marginally in August and remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces. They were balanced in Manitoba and softer than average in B.C. and Ontario. After a surge in July, housing starts dropped 62.4K in August to 217.4K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result well below the median economist forecast calling for a 250.0K print and its lowest level since November 2023. Urban starts decreased by 61.6K (to 199.5K) on an important drop in the multi-family segment (-62.8K to 154.3K) while the single-family segment was up marginally (+1.2K to 45.2K). Starts were down by more than half in Toronto (-40.4K to 24.6K) and decreased more modestly in Vancouver (-9.6K to 20.5K) and Calgary (-9.2K to 19.9K). On the other hand, they increased by 6.0K in Montreal (to 15.2K) after reaching their lowest level since February 2015 (excluding April 2020) the previous month. The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.6% from July to August after adjustment for seasonal effects. Six of the 11 markets in the composite index were up over the month: Quebec City (+3.9%), Halifax (+3.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.9%), Vancouver (+1.7%), Montreal (+1.0%) and Toronto (+0.2%). Conversely, declines occurred in Hamilton (-0.1%), Winnipeg (-0.7%), Calgary (-1.1%) and Edmonton (-2.6%), while prices remained stable in Victoria during the month. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Canadian Housing Activity Remains in Holding Pattern

9/20/2024

National home sales increased in June following the Bank of Canadas first interest rate cut since 2020, and activity posted another small gain in August on the heels of the second rate cut in late July, but the bigger picture appears to be a market mostly stuck in a holding pattern. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems edged up by 1.3% on a month-over-month basis in August 2024, reaching their highest level since January and their second highest in over a year. Despite some fledgling signs of life to kick off the long-awaited monetary policy easing cycle, Canadian housing market activity still looks to be stuck in the same holding pattern its been in all year, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. That said, with ever more friendly interest rates now all but guaranteed later this year and into 2025, it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country. Highlights: National home sales edged up 1.3% month-over-month in August. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 2.1% below August 2023. The number of newly listed properties ticked up 1.1% month-over-month. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) was unchanged month-over-month but was down 3.9% year-over-year. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was almost unchanged (+0.1%) on a year-over-year basis in August. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

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Government announces boldest mortgage reforms in decades to unlock homeownership for more Canadians

9/18/2024

Canadians work hard to be able to afford a home. However, the high cost of mortgage payments is a barrier to homeownership, especially for Millennials and Gen Z. To help more Canadians, particularly younger generations, buy a first home, new mortgage rules came into effect on August 1, 2024, allowing 30 year insured mortgage amortizations for first-time homebuyers purchasing new builds. The Honourable Chrystia Freeland, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, announced a suite of reforms to mortgage rules to make mortgages more affordable for Canadians and put homeownership within reach: Increasing the $1 million price cap for insured mortgages to $1.5 million, effective December 15, 2024, to reflect current housing market realities and help more Canadians qualify for a mortgage with a downpayment below 20 per cent. Increasing the insured-mortgage capwhich has not been adjusted since 2012to $1.5 million will help more Canadians buy a home. Expanding eligibility for 30 year mortgage amortizations to all first-time homebuyers and to all buyers of new builds, effective December 15, 2024, to reduce the cost of monthly mortgage payments and help more Canadians buy a home. By helping Canadians buy new builds, including condos, the government is announcing yet another measure to incentivize more new housing construction and tackle the housing shortage. This builds on the Budget 2024 commitment, which came into effect on August 1, 2024, permitting 30 year mortgage amortizations for first-time homebuyers purchasing new builds, including condos. These new measures build on the strengthened Canadian Mortgage Charte, announced in Budget 2024, which allows all insured mortgage holders to switch lenders at renewal without being subject to another mortgage stress test. Not having to requalify when renewing with a different lender increases mortgage competition and enables more Canadians, with insured mortgages, to switch to the best, cheapest deal. https://www.canada.ca/en/department-finance/news/2024/09/government-announces-boldest-mortgage-reforms-in-decades-to-unlock-homeownership-for-more-canadians.html

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Rates To Keep Falling (If Spending Doesn’t Rebound): Scotiabank’s Forecast Tables

9/13/2024

From Scotiabank The Bank of Canada and Federal Reserve should cut policy rates at each meeting for the remainder of the year and well into 2025. Growth is slowing as the impact of past tightening is felt but we expect a gradual strengthening of economic activity as policy rates come down. North American central bankers seem, at this point, to have achieved a soft landing. We remain concerned about potential upside risks to household spending given high savings rates and accumulated savings, solid income growth, the massive gap between supply and demand in the housing market, and historically strong population growth. We assume a gradual improvement in spending but a larger or more rapid rebound in spending could imperil Bank of Canada cuts in mid-2025. The usual disclaimer applies: US election outcomes could lead to significant changes to this outlook. The path forward for interest rates keeps getting clearer. With inflation and growth cooling owing in part to the lagged impacts of monetary policy, central bankers in Canada and the US seem confident in their assessment that interest rates will be cut substantially in coming months. The key questioning surrounding policy rates is the speed at which rates will decline, not whether they will decline from here. Key to that assessment is a view on growth dynamics, inflation, and risks to both. Though growth is weakening in both countries, we believe economies are landing softly and will not require central banks to act in an urgent way to shore up growth. As a result, we expect a gradual pace of cuts in Canada and the US, with two more cuts in Canada this year and three cuts in the US. A multitude of risks exist and while markets and most economists appear to prioritize downside risks to the outlook and interest rates, we continue to believe there are meaningful upside risks to both. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.global-outlook-and-forecast-tables.scotiabank%27s-forecast-tables.2024.september-10--2024.html

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NBC: Bank of Canada needs to step up the pace

9/11/2024

From National Bank of Canada Summary Some forecasters, including the Bank of Canada, had high hopes of an economic recovery and a stabilization of the unemployment rate in the second half of the year, in the wake of interest rate cuts. For several months now, we have been arguing that, although interest rates are starting to come down, monetary policy is far too restrictive for this recovery and stabilization to occur, and recent economic data bears this out. With the Canadian economy stagnating in June and July, the 2.8% growth expected in Q3 by the Bank of Canada is now virtually unattainable. As a result, GDP per capita continues its downward trend that began in 2022, illustrating the fact that the economy continues to grow below potential and that excess supply continues to increase. Not only do companies seem to have an excess of inventories, they also seem to have an excess of workers. For now, this is limited to a hiring freeze at the macro level, as evidenced by average job gains of just 6K per month over the past three months. Those trying to enter the job market - young people and newcomers - are the main victims of Canadas weak hiring climate. With widespread inflation a thing of the past in Canada, we believe the door is wide open for the Bank of Canada to return its policy rate to neutral (between 2.5% and 3.0%) as soon as possible. In the meantime, the damage to the labour market could be greater than necessary. We anticipate economic growth of just 0.9% in 2024 and 1.3% in 2025, which would translate into an unemployment rate of around 7.4% by mid-2025. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/mensuel/monthly-economic-monitor-canada.pdf

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NBC BoC Policy Monitor: Three in a row and plenty more to go

9/6/2024

From National Bank of Canada For the third time in as many meetings, the Bank of Canada lowered the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points, a decision in line with the consensus and market expectations. The rate reduction brings the policy rate to 4.25%, the lowest since January 2023. The move also pushes the BoCs policy rate 125 bps below the Federal Reserves (based on their upper bound target), the most since 2000 (although that gap will narrow in September). Meanwhile, balance sheet normalization will continue as expected. Here are additional highlights from the communique and the opening statement to the press conference: Driving the decision to cut was continued easing in broad inflationary pressures and excess supply in the economy [putting] downward pressure on inflation. Once again, forward rate guidance in the press release was vague but the opening statement to the presser reiterated that it is reasonable to expect further cuts if inflation eases in line with their forecast. The statement notes that Q2 growth was stronger than expected but preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July. Macklem added they want to see economic growth pick up to absorb slack. The press release highlights that the labour market continues to slow, with little change in employment in recent months. However, wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity. In the opening statement to the presser, Macklem added they still expect slack in the labour market to slow wage growth. As for inflation there has been continued easing in broad inflationary pressures, with inflation breadth back to historical norms. Although shelter is holding inflation up, it is starting to slow. Reflecting base effects, Macklem added that inflation may bump up later in the year. However, they need to need to increasingly guard against the risk that the economy is too weak, and inflation falls too much.. Bottom Line: With a 25 basis point rate cut all but assured, the focus of todays decision was always going to be on the Banks guidance/stance. Overall, there was very little changed relative to July as Macklem reiterated it is still reasonable to expect further rate cuts (as long as inflation cooperates). At the margin, there appears to be a bit more confidence on the inflation outlook as shelter prices are seen as starting to slow. And as we got a sense of in July, they increasingly want to guard against too much slack and inflation undershooting over the projection horizon. They therefore need growth to pick up. What does it mean for the meetings ahead? To us, the BoCs base case outlook is for continued 25 basis points cuts at each of the remaining meetings in 2024 (and likely well into 2025 too). However, there is a growing focus on downside inflation/economic risks which should keep markets pricing some probability of a larger-than-25 basis point cut. Thats appropriate in our view given the balance of risks in the labour market and on the growth outlook. The intermeeting period will offer a wealth of information to inform the near-term rate path as were due to receive two employment reports (including one on Friday), two CPI reports, a read on July GDP and a Business Outlook Survey. Undoubtedly, it will be jobs and inflation data that will be most influential. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf

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Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4¼%

9/4/2024

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 4%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy expanded by about 2% in the second quarter, consistent with projections in the Banks July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, economic growth was stronger than expected, led by consumption, but the labour market has slowed. Euro-area growth has been boosted by tourism and other services, while manufacturing has been soft. Inflation in both regions continues to moderate. In China, weak domestic demand weighed on economic growth. Global financial conditions have eased further since July, with declines in bond yields. The Canadian dollar has appreciated modestly, largely reflecting a lower US dollar. Oil prices are lower than assumed in the July MPR. In Canada, the economy grew by 2.1% in the second quarter, led by government spending and business investment. This was slightly stronger than forecast in July, but preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July. The labour market continues to slow, with little change in employment in recent months. Wage growth, however, remains elevated relative to productivity. As expected, inflation slowed further to 2.5% in July. The Banks preferred measures of core inflation averaged around 2 % and the share of components of the consumer price index growing above 3% is roughly at its historical norm. High shelter price inflation is still the biggest contributor to total inflation but is starting to slow. Inflation also remains elevated in some other services. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/09/fad-press-release-2024-09-04/

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TD: Dollars and Sense: Ready… Set... Cut! Cut! Cut!

8/30/2024

Report by TD Economics Highlights The Fed is finally ready to cut interest rates, but questions remain on the speed and magnitude. We penciled in 25 basis points per meeting, with over 250 bps in cuts over this year and next. However, now that the Fed is confident that inflation will return to target, it will prioritize a little more of the other side of its dual mandate developments in the job market to ultimately determine the speed and size of rate cuts. The BoC has moved earlier, established a pace of 25 basis points per meeting, and already gapped 100 basis points to its U.S. counterpart. The economic bar will be higher to deliver on larger cuts than the current pace. The Federal Reserve is just under three weeks away from delivering its first interest rate cut in four years. While at times it felt like the day would never come, inflation has finally stabilized close to the 2% target alongside a noticeable cooling in the labor market. The Feds focus has now pivoted away from just fighting inflation, to striking the right balance on its dual mandate to ensure the economic landing remains a soft one. This is the stage where markets typically get nervous on whether the Fed has got the timing right, evidenced by recent bouts of financial volatility. The emphasis will be on downside misses in the data given that the Feds policy rate is sitting at a lofty level of 5.50%. And with that, we can expect to see pricing jump around between a Fed that needs to act urgently to one that can move in a measured way. But in all circumstances, one prediction will hold firm: the Fed will cut interest rates in September, kicking off a prolonged cycle. This is not a one-and-done deal. https://economics.td.com/ca-dollar-and-sense

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NBC Housing Market Monitor: Housing market lost its emerging momentum in July

8/28/2024

Home sales edged down 0.7% between June and July, a decline that follows a 3.4% pick up in the previous month which was due to the beginning of easing monetary policy by the Bank of Canada. On the supply side, new listings edged up 0.9% from June to July, the sixth advance in seven months. Active listings edged down 0.7% in July from their highest level since March 2020, the first decrease in five months. Meanwhile, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) remained stable at 4.2 during the month, a level back in line with its pre-pandemic level. Market conditions were unchanged in July and remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces. They were balanced in Manitoba and B.C., and softer than average in Ontario. After a slowdown in June, housing starts increased 37.9K in July to 279.5K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result well above the median economist forecast calling for a 245.0K print and its highest level since June 2023. Urban starts increased by 38.8K (to 261.1K) on an important gain in the multi-family segment (+38.1K to 217.3K) while the single-family segment was up marginally (+0.7K to 43.8). Starts practically doubled in Toronto (+30.7K to 65.1K), and also grew in Vancouver (+9.6K to 30.1K) and Calgary (+6.6K to 29.1K). On the other hand, they dropped significantly in Montreal (-26.0K to 9.0K) to their lowest level since February 2015 (excluding April 2020). The TeranetNational Bank Composite National House Price Index remained virtually stable from June to July, with a marginal increase of 0.2% after adjustment for seasonal effects. Six of the 11 markets in the composite index were up over the month: Hamilton (+2.3%), Victoria (+1.0%), Halifax (+0.8%), Calgary (+0.7%), Toronto (+0.3%) and Quebec City (+0.2%). Conversely, prices fell in Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.4%), Winnipeg (-0.1%), Vancouver (-0.1%) and Montreal (-0.1%), while they remained stable in Edmonton. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Scotiabank: Canada Housing Market: Still at the doorstep of a recovery, but hesitant to knock at the door

8/23/2024

National housing resale conditions softened from June to July as reflected by the modest decline in the sales-to-new listings ratio. Over this period, national sales declined by 0.7% (sa m/m) while new listings increased 0.9%. In July, sales were higher by 4.8% (nsa) compared to the same month in 2023. After increasing from May to June, the sales-to-new listings ratiowhich reflects how tight resale conditions areedged down to 52.7% from June to July, essentially back to its May level, and still within the range for balanced national resale market conditions (of between 45% to 65%). Months of inventory remained unchanged over this period at 4.2, still below its long-term (pre-pandemic) average of 5.3. And since the national market aggregates very different regional markets, there are wide variations in terms of how this indicator compares to its long-term average across provinces, ranging from less than 2 weeks above average in Ontario and British Colombia and Ontario to 5.7 months below in New Brunswick. About 2/3 of the markets witnessed a decline in their sales-to-new listings ratio from June to July. Consequently, the number of sellers favouring markets declined from 10 in June to 5 in July while the number of balanced markets increased from 16 to 22. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.august-15--2024.html

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NBC: Housing affordability continues to improve in Q2 2024

8/21/2024

From National Bank of Canada Q2 2024 marked a second, albeit smaller, improvement in affordability. The amelioration was relatively widespread with 8 of the ten markets covered experiencing a decline in mortgage payment as a percentage of income (MPPI). The most significant improvement occurred in Hamilton, where a home price decline compounded on the broader trend of lower interest rates and rising incomes. On the flip side, Edmonton and Calgary saw rising home prices largely offset any relief. Overall, the composite improved with slightly higher prices not enough to offset the decline in mortgage interest rates and higher incomes. Still, the housing market remains unaffordable with the latest progress bringing the MPPI to 57.9%. Looking ahead, falling mortgage interest rates will likely be the main driver for improvements in affordability. So far, the decline in mortgage interest rates was precipitated by both expectations of rate cuts and the materialization of easing by the Bank of Canada. Given the deterioration in the growth outlook and the weakening in inflation and the labour market, we expect further central bank easing of 150bps over the next 12 months. Although the policy rate and mortgage interest rates do not always follow in lockstep, this development would provide a significant alleviation of the financing burden. At current income and home price levels, it would bring affordability halfway back to pre-pandemic levels. There is the risk, however, that lower interest rates could lift home prices, especially considering the current population boom. That said, between the payment shock from upcoming renewals and the rising unemployment rate, we do not expect much vigour in home prices for the next 12 months. HIGHLIGHTS: Canadian housing affordability posted a second consecutive improvement in Q224. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) fell 1.1 percentage points. Seasonally adjusted home prices increased 0.4% in Q224 from Q124; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) declined 11 basis points, while median household income rose 1.2%. Affordability improved in 8 of the ten markets covered in Q2. On a sliding scale of markets from best progression to least: Hamilton, Toronto, Victoria, Ottawa-Gatineau, Vancouver, Quebec, Montreal, Winnipeg. On the flip side, Edmonton and Calgary deteriorated. Countrywide, affordability enhanced 1.1 pp in the condo portion and in the non-condo segment. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

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Fledgling Canadian Housing Market Momentum Hits Pause in July

8/16/2024

While there were early signs of renewed momentum in June following the Bank of Canadas first interest rate cut since 2020, activity in Canadas housing market took a pause in July. Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems edged back by 0.7% on a month-over-month basis in July 2024, giving back a small portion of Junes post-first rate cut gain. With another rate cut announced on July 24, weve now seen two rate cuts in a row, and the expected pace of future policy easing has steepened considerably, with markets now anticipating rate cuts at every remaining Bank of Canada decision this year, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. Combine that with a record amount of demand waiting in the wings, and the forecast for a rekindling of Canadian housing activity going into 2025 has just gone from a layup to a slam dunk. Highlights: National home sales edged back 0.7% month-over-month in July. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 4.8% above July 2023. The number of newly listed properties ticked up 0.9% month-over-month. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged up 0.2% month-over-month but was down 3.9% year-over-year. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price was almost unchanged (-0.2%) on a year-over-year basis in July. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

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Study: The evolving landscape of Canadian lending: Key trends in mortgage and non-mortgage loans

8/14/2024

Non-mortgage loans are above the levels seen before the pandemic Non-mortgage loans have increased from the first quarter of 2019 and edged up in the first quarter of 2020. Over the next two quarters, non-mortgage debt levels declined as lockdowns came into full effect. Canadians were able to build up savings, reduce debt and reduce spending to bolster their finances against uncertainty as non-essential businesses closed and travel restrictions were imposed. Despite this reduction, since 2022, debt levels have risen, ultimately wiping out the previous effects. This increase in debt levels can be attributed to several factors, including inflation that peaked at 8.1% year over year in June 2022, making everyday goods and services more costly. Uninsured mortgage loans grow faster than insured ones as house prices increase Since 2017, uninsured mortgages have predominated in Canada, overtaking insured ones for the first time that year. From 2012 to 2019, the outstanding value of uninsured mortgages grew quarterly by 3.0% on average, while insured mortgages declined by 0.4%. This disparity widened during the pandemic as house prices soared due to lower borrowing costs and increased demand, with the quarterly growth of outstanding value of uninsured mortgages reaching 3.4% from 2020 to 2022, while insured mortgages declined by 0.5%. Rising interest rates from early 2022 through the third quarter of 2023 cooled housing market activity, decelerating the quarterly growth of uninsured mortgages to 2.0%, compared with a decline of 1.0% for insured mortgages during the same period. Arrears for non-mortgage loans are trending upward Households with loans in arrears, defined as those late on debt payments by 90 days or more, saw a slight increase during the first two quarters of 2020 owing to economic closures. Government support during the pandemic helped reduce arrears by increasing household disposable income. However, as interest rates rose and pandemic-related support diminished, non-mortgage loan arrears climbed again in 2022. Passenger vehicle loans (+0.18%) and credit card loans (+0.07%) saw the largest arrears increases by the third quarter of 2023 compared with the first quarter of 2019. Mortgage loan arrears have not seen a similar rise despite increasing interest rates. By the third quarter of 2023, mortgage arrears were still below pre-pandemic levels, down 0.08% from the first quarter of 2019. Most households have yet to feel the full impact of higher interest rates, as many mortgage renewals are due in the coming years. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, around 2.2 million mortgages, or 45% of all outstanding mortgages in Canada (over $675 billion), will face an interest rate shock in 2024 and 2025. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240814/dq240814d-eng.htm

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Canadian labour force: What will happen once baby boomers retire?

8/9/2024

This study uses several demographic scenarios to illustrate how Canadas labour force could evolve from 2023 to 2041. This projection exercise produced a number of findings. Despite the baby boomer cohorts retiring, the size of Canadas labour force is likely to increase over the next few years because of migratory increase. The scenarios show that the size of the labour force is sensitive to both immigration levels and above all, the participation rate of the Canadian population. If labour force participation in Canada in 2041 reached the same intensity as in Japan, the size of the Canadian labour force would increase in a similar way to the scenario in which 750,000 permanent immigrants are admitted annually. The increase in the overall participation rate would be five times higher in the scenario where participation rates in Canada converge toward those currently observed in Japan, compared with the increase observed in the scenario in which Canada admits 750,000 immigrants annually. The scenario in which participation rates converge toward those observed in Japan, while unlikely given the significant differences between the two societies, nevertheless illustrates the potential impact of an increase in Canadians participation rate on the growth and demographic weight of the labour force. Canadas strong population growth, driven by large-scale immigration, brings both opportunities and challenges. While it increases the size of the labour force, it has a limited impact on the overall labour force participation rate and on the aging and renewal of the labour force. Beyond its purely demographic impact, immigration also exerts pressure on housing supply, infrastructure construction and the provision of services to the population, while also addressing unfilled job demands in certain employment sectors. The results of this population projection exercise show that immigration is not the only lever for influencing the evolution of the Canadian labour force. According to the projections, various processes will stabilize at the start of the 2030s, when the last baby boomers turn 65. Furthermore, the projections show that immigration levels would not significantly influence the aging or rejuvenation of the future labour force if they remained relatively constant over time. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/75-006-x/2024001/article/00005-eng.htm

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Short-term rentals in the Canadian housing market

8/7/2024

The role of short-term rentals (STRs) in Canadas housing challenges remains a subject of ongoing policy debate in many Canadian cities. While there is a widespread notion that such rentals limit the availability of long-term housing, empirical analysis of their impacts has produced mixed results. This paper provides an overview of STR activity across Canada. The paper focuses on the subset of STRs that could potentially serve as long-term housing. This subset of STRs, referred to as potential long-term dwellings (PLTDs), is intended to capture STR units that are not serving as anyones primary residence, but could potentially function as long-term housing (either as owner-occupied or rental units). The PLTD subset comprises entire units listed for more than 180 days a year, excluding vacation-type properties. Previous research indicates that STR activity plays an increasingly significant role in the Canadian accommodation services subsector, with its share of revenues rising from an estimated 7.0% in 2017 to 15.2% in 2021. However, in the housing market, STRs still account for a small proportion of total housing units. In 2023, the estimated number of PLTDs in Canada was 107,266, a figure that represents less than 1% of total housing units in Canada. PLTDs also accounted for a small share of total housing units in Canadas largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs). However, the share of PLTDs was higher in tourist areas, particularly around ski hills. In Whistler, they constituted 35.0% of all housing units, while in Mont-Tremblant, their share was 16.4%. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/11-621-m/11-621-m2024010-eng.htm

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Summertime and the easing is easy

8/2/2024

For the second time in as many meetings, the Bank of Canada lowered the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points, a decision in line with the consensus and market expectations. The rate reduction brings the policy rate to 4.50%, fully unwinding the two rate hikes delivered in June and July 2023. This move also pushes the BoCs policy rate 100 bps below the Federal Reserves (based on the upper bound target), marking the largest negative gap since the late 1990s. Despite the consecutive cuts and upward pressure on CORRA, balance sheet normalization will continue (as expected). Here are additional highlights from the communique and the opening statement to the press conference: Driving the decision to cut was broad price pressures continuing to ease and ongoing excess supply lowering inflationary pressures. Once again, there wasnt really any forward rate guidance in the press release but the opening statement to the presser reiterated that it is reasonable to expect further cuts if inflation eases in line with their forecast. He added that downside risks are taking on increased weight in our monetary policy deliberations. Note that the statement dropped the focus items that theyd previously been referring to (i.e., the balance between demand and supply, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour). Instead, incoming information will guide future decisions. The statement notes that excess supply is growing: With robust population growth of about 3%, the economys potential output is still growing faster than GDP, which means excess supply has increased. On the labour market, they highlight that there are signs of slack with labour force growth outpacing employment and job seekers having more trouble finding work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderating but remains elevated. As for inflation, the statement notes that broad inflationary pressures are easing although shelter and some services inflation remains elevated. Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf

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Artificial Intelligence has taken the world by storm. Here’s how Canadians are using it to help with their finances

7/31/2024

Artificial Intelligence (AI) has had many breakthroughs in the past few years, and more and more households are beginning to incorporate it in their daily routines. The BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals a growing number of Canadians, notably Gen Z, are using artificial intelligence (AI) to help manage their finances and investments. Among the 33% of Canadians using AI to help manage their finances, the most common uses include: Learning more about personal finance topics (45%), Creating and/or updating household budgets (43%), Identifying new investment strategies (42%), Building savings (40%), and Creating and/or updating their financial plans (40%). While AI is helping Canadians manage some aspects of finances, over two thirds (68%) say AI cannot understand how emotions influence financial planning. AI is a transformative technology that can instantly analyze information and generate ideas, but peoples relationship with money is complex, personal and emotional. By making it easier to help manage finances, AI is proving a powerful tool to build financial literacy and make informed financial decisions, and together with guidance from a professional advisor, more Canadians can be empowered to conveniently manage their money, achieve their goals and make real financial progress. https://about.bmo.com/artificial-intelligence-has-taken-the-world-by-storm-heres-how-canadians-are-using-it-to-help-with-their-finances/

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More Clarity, for the Time Being… : Scotiabank’s Forecast Tables

7/26/2024

From Scotiabank Further rate cuts in Canada this year a certainty while we continue to believe that the Federal Reserve will cut in September. Economic data have come in largely as expected so our forecasts remain largely unchanged. Lower interest rates will provide a mild boost to economic growth later this year, but the full impact of rate cuts will take time to materialize given the lags of monetary policy. Clarity on interest rates and the outlook over the next few months may be fleeting. The results of the US election risk muddying the outlook substantially. The long-awaited rate cuts are finally underway in Canada and are likely to start in the United States in September. These will eventually provide relief to the interest rate sensitive parts of the economy and may also lift business and household sentiment. These rate cuts are occurring in the context of slow, but still-positive growth, and solid progress on inflation management even though there remain substantial risks of higher inflation (linked to the sharp rise in global shipping costs and rapid wage growth and low productivity in Canada). We remain comfortable with our view that policy rates will fall by another 75 basis points in Canada this year and that the Federal Reserve will cut its policy rate by at least 50 basis points starting in September. Moreover, economic data have come in roughly as expected over the last several months, leading to only minor tweaks to the outlook for growth. All told, this forecast update is largely similar to our previous forecast. In this sense, the stability in our forecast combined with more certainty on the interest rate path suggest greater clarity in the outlook for the next several months. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.global-outlook-and-forecast-tables.scotiabank%27s-forecast-tables.2024.july-18--2024.html

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Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points to 4½%

7/24/2024

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 4%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy is expected to continue expanding at an annual rate of about 3% through 2026. While inflation is still above central bank targets in most advanced economies, it is forecast to ease gradually. In the United States, the anticipated economic slowdown is materializing, with consumption growth moderating. US inflation looks to have resumed its downward path. In the euro area, growth is picking up following a weak 2023. Chinas economy is growing modestly, with weak domestic demand partially offset by strong exports. Global financial conditions have eased, with lower bond yields, buoyant equity prices, and robust corporate debt issuance. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable and oil prices are around the levels assumed in Aprils Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In Canada, economic growth likely picked up to about 1% through the first half of this year. However, with robust population growth of about 3%, the economys potential output is still growing faster than GDP, which means excess supply has increased. Household spending, including both consumer purchases and housing, has been weak. There are signs of slack in the labour market. The unemployment rate has risen to 6.4%, with employment continuing to grow more slowly than the labour force and job seekers taking longer to find work. Wage growth is showing some signs of moderating, but remains elevated. GDP growth is forecast to increase in the second half of 2024 and through 2025. This reflects stronger exports and a recovery in household spending and business investment as borrowing costs ease. Residential investment is expected to grow robustly. With new government limits on admissions of non-permanent residents, population growth should slow in 2025. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/07/fad-press-release-2024-07-24/

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NBC Housing Market Monitor: Home sales picked up in June following rate cut

7/19/2024

Summary Home sales edged up 3.7% between May and June, the first increase in five months following the beginning of the monetary easing cycle by the Bank of Canada in June. On the supply side, new listings increased 1.5% from May to June, the fifth advance in six months. Active listings rose by 1.2% in June, the third consecutive month of growth and the highest level since March 2020. Meanwhile, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) decreased from 4.3 in May to 4.2 in June, a level back in line with its pre-pandemic level. Market conditions tightened slightly during the month and remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces. They were balanced in Manitoba and B.C., and softer than average in Ontario. Housing starts decreased 23.5K in June to 241.7K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result below the median economist forecast calling for a 254.1K print. Urban starts decreased by 23.2K (to 223.2K) on a decline in the multi-family segment (+23.9K to 180.2K) while the single-family segment was up marginally (+0.7K to 43.0). Starts decreased in Vancouver (-3.0K to 20.6K), Toronto (-19.9K to 34.3K), and Calgary (-1.0K to 22.5K), while they increased in Montreal (+6.6K to 35.0K). At the provincial level, the most pronounced decreases in total starts were registered in Ontario (-19.1K to 67.6K), Alberta (-6.0K to 42.3K), and B.C. (-5.3K to 40.8K). Meanwhile, notable increases were seen in Manitoba (+6.3K to 10.3K), Nova Scotia (+3.2K to 12.1K), and Saskatchewan (+2.8K to 4.6K). The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index remained stable from May to June, after seasonal adjustments. Five of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Winnipeg (+3.9%), Edmonton (+2.3%), Quebec City (+1.1%), Calgary (+0.1%) and Toronto (+0.1%). Conversely, prices fell in Hamilton (-2.2%), Halifax (-0.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.8%), Vancouver (-0.3%) and Montreal (-0.3%), while they remained stable in Victoria. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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2024 CMHC Mortgage Consumer Survey

7/17/2024

Key Takeaways for 2024 Overall, the Canadian mortgage landscape in 2024 was relatively similar to 2023. The rate of mortgages contracted in the last 18 months were stable. Renewing vs buying. Consumers renewing their mortgage increased (62% vs 58% in 2023) whereas repeat buyers and first-time buyers decreased. Significantly more mortgage consumers were impacted this year by rising interest rates (65% vs 50% in 2023). However, most consumers had strategies in place to avoid defaulting on their mortgage. It took an average of 4.2 years for consumers to save for a down payment, with 30% of buyers receiving a gift to help with the cost. While consumers continue to have concerns or uncertainty during the home buying process, the majority (79%) still believe it is a good long-term financial investment. Nearly three times as many buyers this year said high interest rates made them delay buying a home (13% vs 5% in 2023). First-time homebuyers and newcomers were the most likely to postpone. The vast majority of consumers did research before their most recent mortgage transaction, with 52% of consumers researching exclusively online, compared to just 34% in 2023. Going green. Among homeowners who did energy efficient renovations, 93% are satisfied with the results of their renovations and 68% saw savings in their energy/electricity bills. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/surveys/mortgage-consumer-surveys/survey-results-2024/2024-cmhc-mortgage-consumer-survey-en.pdf

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TD Provincial Housing Market Outlook: Mediocre Second Half Sales Recovery on Deck

7/12/2024

From TD Economics As we had anticipated, its been a quiet spring selling season. Elevated borrowing costs and Bank of Canada uncertainty have kept buyers on the sidelines through May, leaving Canadian home sales at the lower end of their pre-Covid levels. Canadian average home prices have managed to grind higher so far this spring, but largely due to a shift to more expensive homes being sold. In contrast, benchmark prices (which are a more like for like measure) have declined. The resale market is still projected to gain traction in the second half of 2024, although weve dialed back the expected pace of gains in sales and prices relative to our March forecast. This is because borrowing costs are unlikely to fall as much as previously thought, with one fewer cut expected by the Bank of Canada this year. Whats more, the U.S. central bank is now likely to begin cutting its policy rate late in 2024, instead of the summer, which has spilled over to more limited declines in Canadian bond yields over the remainder of this year. 2025 growth forecasts for Canadian home sales and average home prices have been lifted, however, as downgraded activity in 2024 yields additional pent-up demand waiting to be unleashed, and more meaningful rate relief is delivered. Were retaining our view that price growth will outperform in the Prairies going forward, lifted by tight markets, historically strong population growth, solid affordability conditions, and economic outperformance. Elsewhere, relatively tight supply/demand balances should keep prices on the rise in Quebec and the Atlantic, although notable affordability deteriorations will prevent even stronger gains. Interprovincial migration has also begun to slow in the Atlantic, weighing on what is likely a key source of ownership demand in the region. In Ontario and B.C., average home price growth should benefit from the strongest sales gains in the country moving forward, with pent-up demand driving a recovery in activity from low levels in these two markets. In the near-term, price growth will be restrained by loose supply/demand conditions, although compositional forces could offer some offset in Ontario, as theyve done in recent months. Thereafter, historically challenging affordability backdrops should cap the pace of gains taking place in the two regions. https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook

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BMO Survey: Canadian Summer Spending Heats Up

7/10/2024

Nearly half (48%) admit to spending more than they know they should. 15% believe impulse shopping is preventing them from making real financial progress. A special report from the BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals Canadians plan to spend more on vacations and/or travel (20%), home renovations (15%), weddings for family and/or friends (10%) and special events such as graduations and showers (9%) this summer compared to 2023. Household spending continues to be a primary driver of economic growth. According to BMO Economics, consumer confidence will likely improve following the Bank of Canadas first rate cut in four years, with expectations for another two rate cuts for the rest of 2024 and several more in 2025. Inflation is showing continued signs of calming, opening the door for further rate cuts by the Bank of Canada, said Sal Guatieri, Senior Economist, BMO. Lower borrowing costs and slower-rising living costs should provide sufficient relief to support moderate two per cent growth in consumer spending this year and next. The BMO Real Financial Progress Index explores Canadians summer spending plans and forecasts: Sizzling Summer Travels: One-in-five Canadians (20%) plan to spend more on summer travel, while 38% plan on spending the same as in 2023. 15% plan on spending less than last year. Overcast Conditions for Celebrating Milestones: Nearly a tenth of Canadians plan to spend more on weddings (9%) and special events such as graduations and showers (9%) for family and friends. More than a fifth (22%) plan to spend the same on weddings for family and/or friends and more than a quarter intend to spend the same as last year on special events (27%). Ramping Up Home Renovations: 15% plan to spend more on home renovations, while nearly a quarter (24%) will spend the same as last year. 13% intend to spend less on home renovations in 2024. Summer Splurges: For those planning on making a large purchase, including buying a car, 18% plan to spend the same and 10% plan to spend more than they did in 2023. Climbing Summer Camp Costs: 15% of parents with children under the age of 18 plan to spend more on summer camps and/or childcare and 36% intend to spend the same as last year. https://newsroom.bmo.com/2024-06-18-BMO-Survey-Canadian-Summer-Spending-Heats-Up

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BMO: Canadian Housing: Migration Matters

7/5/2024

Canadas population surpassed 41 million for the first time on April 1, marking an increase of nearly a quarter-million people from the previous quarter. The yearly rise of 1.27 million set a new record, while the 3.2 per cent growth rate was the highest since 1958 and more than twice the historical average, says Sal Guatieri, BMO Senior Economist and Director of Economics in a recent report. Net international migration of 1.24 million drove almost all the rise, with two-thirds (828,000) propelled by temporary immigration. If, as planned, the federal government slashes the number of temporary immigrants from 6.8% of the population to 5% within three years, then overall growth will slow to around 1%. A growing population propelled by permanent immigration targets of half a million per year will still support the housing market, but in a much more sustainable manner. Builders will have a decent chance of keeping up with household formation, reducing the risk of markets overheating and prices overshooting income growth. Poor affordability, namely in B.C. and Ontario, is not (yet) having a serious effect on international migration. Ontarios population grew 3.5% in the past year and B.C.s rose 3.3%, both much faster than usual and still leading all provinces except for Alberta, whose population exploded 4.4%, the most since 1981. Ontario and Albertas population growth is about double the long-run norm. All provinces are attracting more international migrants than usual, even pricey Ontario (net 93,000) and B.C. (40,000), with Alberta (33,000) punching above its weight. But regional affordability differences are influencing where migrants, including longtime residents, eventually end up.The biggest increases in population relative to historical norms are in Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Quebec, and three Atlantic Provinces. What do all six regions have in common? Still-decent affordability. The sole exception is Newfoundland Labrador with still subdued population growth of 1.0%, though thats twice the norm. A total 356,000 people moved between provinces in the past year, also more than usual. This is where differences in housing costs come to the fore. Ontario had a net outflow of 32,000 people, trending at the worst levels on record, while B.C. lost 10,000 folks to other provinces. The hands-down winner of the interprovincial migration sweepstakes is Alberta with a net gain of 53,000, tracking the most on record. And its no coincidence that the biggest contributor to this gain is people leaving B.C. and Ontario. More Canadians are also moving to Atlantic Canada. While NL did see a small net outflow, this followed a rare inflow in the prior two years. Quebec, Saskatchewan and Manitoba also lost residents to other provinces, but Quebecs net outflow was much smaller than usual. Source: https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/0aa3f8dd-43d3-4167-ac05-682ddb7765be/

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TD: Provincial Growth Looking Up As Interest Rates Come Down

6/21/2024

TD Provincial Economic Forecast Provincial economies are performing broadly as expected. Activity is likely to remain subpar across most of Canada, as regional economies continue to absorb the impact of elevated rates. We still see scope for growth outperformances in the Atlantic Region and Prairies, with somewhat weaker expansions likely in Ontario, B.C and Quebec. The Bank of Canada has begun to normalize its policy rate. However, the process will be gradual, with more significant progress in 2025. By late this year, the U.S. central bank should also be trimming its policy rate, downwardly pressuring Canadian yields and setting the stage for meaningful rate relief. All provinces will benefit, particularly those with the most highly indebted households such as Ontario, B.C., and Alberta. Falling borrowing costs will also deliver a shot in the arm to Canadian housing markets later in the year, changing the momentum from a spring market that has been subdued. Home sales growth should be particularly sturdy in B.C. and Ontario given pent-up demand, although affordability pressures will limit price gains. In contrast, markets in the Prairies should continue to outperform. Population growth across the nation continued to balloon over the first quarter of 2024, notably in Alberta, Ontario, and PEI. This may be the last surge before we see population growth rates slowly taper as a result of recently announced policies by the federal government. For now, decent employment gains have not been able to keep pace with the quickly growing labour force, leading to higher unemployment rates across most jurisdictions. We see jobless rates generally peaking by the end of this year before gently pulling back in 2025. https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast

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Housing Market Monitor: Home sales edged down in May

6/19/2024

Summary Home sales edged down 0.6% between April and May, a fourth consecutive monthly decline. On the supply side, new listings increased 0.5% from April to May, the fourth advance in five months. Active listings rose by 4.2% in May, the second consecutive month of growth and the highest level since March 2020. Meanwhile, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased from 4.2 in April to 4.4 in May, a level now back in line with its pre-pandemic level. Market conditions loosened during the month but remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces. They were balanced in Manitoba and B.C., and softer than average in Ontario. Housing starts jumped 23.4K in May to 264.5K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result well above the median economist forecast calling for a 245.1K print. Urban starts increased by 24.7K (to 246.1K) withs gains in both the multi-family segment (+24.0K to 203.1K) and the single-family segment (+0.8K to 43.0K). Starts increased in Montreal (+14.4K to 28.3K), Toronto (+17.3K to 54.3K), and Calgary (+1.4K to 23.4K), while they decreased in Vancouver (-11.1K to 23.5K). At the provincial level, the most pronounced increases in total starts were registered in Qubec (+19.4K to 59.6K), Ontario (+12.4K to 86.3K), and New Brunswick (+3.5K to 7.0K). Meanwhile, notable decreases were seen in British Columbia (-8.4K to 46.5K) and Manitoba (-4.8K to 3.5K). The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.5% from April to May, after seasonal adjustments. Seven of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Halifax (+1.5%), Hamilton (+1.1%), Calgary (+1.0%), Vancouver (+1.0%), Victoria (+0.8%), Toronto (+0.5%) and Quebec City (+0.5%). Conversely, prices fell in Edmonton (0.7%), Winnipeg (-0.6%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.2%), while they remained stable in Montreal. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Population in Canada: A Monthly Snapshot

6/14/2024

ON TRACK IN SOME AREAS, A BUMPY ROAD AHEAD IN OTHERS Population growth continues to surge. Mays Labour Force Survey data reported a 3.6% (S.A.A.R.) increase in the 15 year old+ population compared to April. This 97,600 increase since the release of last months report maintained the trend of robust population growth through 2024 so far, with the last three months averaging growth of 3.7% (S.A.A.R.). Compared to May of last year, Canadas 15+ population is up by almost 1.1 million. The increase in the labour force population is down by roughly half when compared to Aprils explosive growth numbers, although m/m growth of 3% (S.A.A.R.) is still significantly high, especially when compared to pre-pandemic levels. A quarter of the year recorded, a quarter of the goal reached. Canada admitted another 34,785 permanent residents among its major categories in March, totalling 121,620 admissions for the year so far, approximately 25% of the annual goal of 485,000 the federal government set for 2024. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.canada-and-us-economics-.economic-commentary.population-growth.-june-10--2024-.html

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Further Rate Cuts on the Horizon: Scotiabank’s Forecast Tables

6/12/2024

From Scotiabank We expect the Bank of Canada to cut by 25bps at each of the next three meetings. Inflation is on a good downward path though growth in the interest rate-sensitive parts of the economy remains surprisingly strong. Positive risks to the outlook for growth and inflation remain as interest rates come down. We are particularly mindful of the response in real estate markets and household spending. Any materialization of upside risks would imperil future rate cuts. Rate cuts have finally begun in Canada. With inflation hopefully on a sustained downward path despite the interest rate-sensitive parts of our economy performing surprisingly well, it is now clear that the Bank of Canada has decided rate relief is necessary. That is great news for borrowers if the Bank of Canada follows through with additional cuts. We think they will, though we remain concerned about upside risks to inflation given rising wages and falling productivity, the surprising strength in consumption, the serial over-stimulation by the federal and provincial governments, and the potential for a housing market rebound. As a result of the latest decision and the communications around that we are changing our Bank of Canada view and now expect that Governor Macklem will cut the policy rate at each of the next three meetings, for a total of 100bps of cuts this year. https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.global-outlook-and-forecast-tables.scotiabank%27s-forecast-tables.2024.june-6--2024.html

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NBC BoC Policy Monitor: Price progress = Policy pivot

6/7/2024

From National Bank of Canada In the first rate decision with material uncertainty in a year, the BoC opted lower the target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points, a decision in line with market expectations and the consensus forecast. This makes the BoC the first G7 central bank to ease policy this year, though the ECB is widely expected to follow suit tomorrow. Citing clear progress in core inflation, in addition to ongoing sub-potential growth and a rebalancing labour market, the press release noted monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive. The focus now turns to the pacing of cuts in this nascent easing cycle. In the opening statement to the presser, Macklem said its reasonable to expect further easing as long as inflation continues to ease. That puts a July cut squarely in focus and wed be inclined to bet they will ease again at the next meeting. At the same time, wed note that earlier BoC communications indicated that monetary policy easing this year would be gradual. Macklem confirmed this view in the press conference. So although back-to-back cuts may be instituted to start, were skeptical theyll continue at the same pace thereafter. We agree with market expectations that 50 basis points of additional rate relief is appropriate in 2024. In contrast, the consensus sees this marking the start of a more aggressive easing campaign. The median expectation is for a 4% policy rate by year-end. Three more cuts over the last four decisions of the year, isnt a pace of cuts we would characterize as gradual and isnt as likely to materialize barring a more material slowdown in the economy. The Banks next decision will take place on July 24th. The Summary of Deliberations for todays decision will be released on June 19th. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/boc-policy-monitor.pdf

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Bank of Canada reduces policy rate by 25 basis points

6/5/2024

The Bank of Canada today reduced its target for the overnight rate to 4%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 4%. The Bank is continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization. The global economy grew by about 3% in the first quarter of 2024, broadly in line with the Banks April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projection. In the United States, the economy expanded more slowly than was expected, as weakness in exports and inventories weighed on activity. Growth in private domestic demand remained strong but eased. In the euro area, activity picked up in the first quarter of 2024. Chinas economy was also stronger in the first quarter, buoyed by exports and industrial production, although domestic demand remained weak. Inflation in most advanced economies continues to ease, although progress towards price stability is bumpy and is proceeding at different speeds across regions. Oil prices have averaged close to the MPR assumptions, and financial conditions are little changed since April. In Canada, economic growth resumed in the first quarter of 2024 after stalling in the second half of last year. At 1.7%, first-quarter GDP growth was slower than forecast in the MPR. Weaker inventory investment dampened activity. Consumption growth was solid at about 3%, and business investment and housing activity also increased. Labour market data show businesses continue to hire, although employment has been growing at a slower pace than the working-age population. Wage pressures remain but look to be moderating gradually. Overall, recent data suggest the economy is still operating in excess supply. CPI inflation eased further in April, to 2.7%. The Banks preferred measures of core inflation also slowed and three-month measures suggest continued downward momentum. Indicators of the breadth of price increases across components of the CPI have moved down further and are near their historical average. However, shelter price inflation remains high. With continued evidence that underlying inflation is easing, Governing Council agreed that monetary policy no longer needs to be as restrictive and reduced the policy interest rate by 25 basis points. Recent data has increased our confidence that inflation will continue to move towards the 2% target. Nonetheless, risks to the inflation outlook remain. Governing Council is closely watching the evolution of core inflation and remains particularly focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth, and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/06/fad-press-release-2024-06-05/

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Statistics Canada: New Housing Price Index, April 2024

5/31/2024

Canadian new home prices increase slightly in April The national index rose by 0.2% monthly in April on the strength of increases in large urban centres such as Edmonton, Calgary, and Vancouver. Overall, prices increased in 5 of the 27 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) surveyed, were unchanged in 15 CMAs and declined in 7. The largest price gains are reported by cities in Alberta The largest month-over-month increases in April were reported in Edmonton (+1.1%) and Calgary (+ 0.9%). Builders attributed the price gains to construction costs along with favourable market conditions. In Alberta, the rapidly growing population is fuelling demand for new housing. According to the latest population estimates of Canada, Alberta (+4.4%) recorded the fastest year-over-year rise in population in Canada in the first quarter of 2024. The largest monthly declines in April were seen in KitchenerCambridgeWaterloo (-0.4%) and Winnipeg (-0.4%), where builders linked the decreases to weak market conditions. National new home prices edge down year over year in April Nationally, the prices of new homes edged down (-0.1%) in April compared with the same month last year. This was less than the year-over-year decline seen in March 2024 (-0.4%). The largest year-over-year declines in April were registered in Ottawa (-4.4%) and Saskatoon (-2.5%), while the largest increases were in Calgary (+3.9%), Vancouver (+1.3%) and Qubec (+1.2%). https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240523/dq240523c-eng.htm

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NBC: Reliefs for housing affordability in the first quarter of 2024

5/29/2024

HIGHLIGHTS: Canadian housing affordability posted a first improvement in three quarters in Q124. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) fell 3.1 percentage points, the largest one quarter improvement since the second quarter of 2019. Seasonally adjusted home prices decreased 0.6% in Q124 from Q423; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) slumped 32 basis points, while median household income rose 1.2%. Affordability improved in all ten markets covered in Q1. On a sliding scale of markets from best progression to least: Vancouver, Victoria, Toronto, Hamilton, Montreal, Winnipeg, Ottawa-Gatineau, Edmonton, Quebec, Calgary. Countrywide, affordability enhanced 2.2 pp in the condo portion vs. a 3.4 pp betterment in the non-condo segment. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

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CMHC: What is Canada’s potential capacity for housing construction?

5/23/2024

Key Highlights Even with a record-high 650,000 construction workers in 2023, Canadas housing production of 240,267 units was below the potential of over 400,000 homes per year. While more human and financial resources have been committed to residential construction over the past several years, housing starts have not kept the pace. Meeting the Governments Housing Plan of achieving the goal of 3.87 million new homes by 2031 demands both regulatory reforms and industry consolidation to increase efficiency and productivity. The Housing Accelerator Fund is a huge step in achieving this outcome. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/blog/2024/what-canada-potential-capacity-housing-construction

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NBC: Still sluggish home sales allow inventory to recover

5/22/2024

Summary Home sales edged down 1.7% between March and April, a second monthly decrease in five months. On the supply side, new listings increased 2.8% from March to April, the third advance in four months. Active listings jumped 5.8% in April, following stabilization the previous month. Overall, the number of months of inventory (active listings-to-sales) increased from 3.9 in March to 4.2 in April. Market conditions loosened during the month but remained tighter than their historical average in most provinces. They were balanced in Manitoba and B.C., and softer than average in Ontario. Housing starts remained relatively stable in April as they edged down 2.0K to 240.2K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result in line with the median economist forecast calling for a 240.0K print. Urban starts decreased by 0.2K (to 220.1K) as a decline for the multi-family segment (-1.2K to 178.5K) was almost fully offset by an increase in the single-family segment (+0.9K to 41.7K). Starts increased in Montreal (+4.0K to 13.9K) and Calgary (+0.1K to 21.9K), while they decreased in Vancouver (-7.1K to 34.6K) and Toronto (-5.0K to 37.0K). At the provincial level, the most pronounced increases in total starts were registered in Alberta (+5.8K to 45.9K), Manitoba (+2.7K to 8.2K) and New Brunswick (+1.4K to 3.6K). Meanwhile, notable decreases were seen in Qubec (-6.7K to 39.9K) and British Columbia (-6.0K to 54.8K). The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Indexremained stable from March to April, after seasonal adjustments. Seven of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Edmonton (+2.3%), Montreal (+1.9%), Calgary (+1.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.5%), Vancouver (+0.4%), Hamilton (+0.4%) and Winnipeg (+0.3%). Conversely, declines occurred in Halifax (-0.7%), Toronto (-1.2%), Victoria (-1.9%) and Quebec City (-2.1%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Statistics Canada: Labour Force Survey, April 2024

5/17/2024

Employment increased by 90,000 (+0.4%) in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 6.1%. The employment rate held steady at 61.4%, following six consecutive monthly declines. In April, employment rose among core-aged men (25 to 54 years old) (+41,000; +0.6%) and women (+27,000; +0.4%) as well as for male youth aged 15 to 24 (+39,000; +2.8%). There were fewer women aged 55 and older employed (-16,000; -0.8%), while employment was little changed among men aged 55 and older and female youth (aged 15 to 24). Employment gains in April were driven by part-time employment (+50,000; +1.4%). Employment increased in April in professional, scientific and technical services (+26,000; +1.3%), accommodation and food services (+24,000; +2.2%), health care and social assistance (+17,000; +0.6%) and natural resources (+7,700; +2.3%), while it fell in utilities (-5,000; -3.1%). Employment increased in Ontario (+25,000; +0.3%), British Columbia (+23,000; +0.8%), Quebec (+19,000 +0.4%) and New Brunswick (+7,800; +2.0%) in April. It was little changed in the other provinces. Total hours worked rose 0.8% in April and were up 1.2% compared with 12 months earlier. Average hourly wages among employees increased 4.7% (+$1.57 to $34.95) on a year-over-year basis in April, following growth of 5.1% in March (not seasonally adjusted). In the spotlight: Over one in four workers (28.4%) have to come into work or connect to a work device at short notice at least several times a month. https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240510/dq240510a-eng.htm

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Bank of Canada: Households are adjusting to the rise in debt-servicing costs

5/15/2024

Following sharp declines during the COVID‑19 pandemic, many indicators of financial stress have now returned to more normal levels. Signs of stress are concentrated primarily among households without a mortgage and survey data suggest that, of these households, renters are most affected. In contrast, indicators of stress among mortgage holders are largely unchanged, remaining at levels lower than their historical averages. Factors such as income growth, accumulated savings and reduced discretionary spending are supporting households ability to deal with higher debt payments. Over the coming years, more mortgage holders will be renewing at higher interest rates. Based on market expectations for interest rates, payment increases will generally be larger for these mortgage holders than for borrowers who renewed over the past two years. Higher debt-servicing costs reduce financial flexibility for households and businesses and make them more vulnerable in the event of an economic downturn. Signs of financial stress have risen primarily among households without a mortgage The combination of higher inflation and higher interest rates continues to put pressure on household finances. Many indicators of financial stress, which had declined during the pandemic, are now close to pre-pandemic levels. Signs of increased financial stress appear mainly concentrated among renters. The rates of arrears on credit cards and auto loans for households without a mortgagewhich includes renters and outright homeownersare back to pre-pandemic levels and continue to grow. In contrast, arrears on these products for households with a mortgage have remained low and stable. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/05/financial-stability-report-2024/

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Bank of Canada: Financial Stability Report

5/10/2024

Key takeaways Canadas financial system remains resilient. Over the past year, financial system participantsincluding households, businesses, banks and non-bank financial institutionshave continued to proactively adjust to higher interest rates. However, risks to financial stability remain. The Bank sees two key risks to stability, related to: Debt serviceabilityBusinesses and households continue to adjust to higher interest rates. Indicators of financial stress in both sectors were below historical averages through the COVID-19 pandemic but have been normalizing. Some indicators look to be increasing more sharply and warrant monitoring. Higher debt-servicing costs reduce financial flexibility for households and businesses and make them more vulnerable in the event of an economic downturn. Asset valuationsThe valuations of some financial assets appear to have become stretched, which increases the risk of a sharp correction that can generate system-wide stress. The recent rise in leverage in the non-bank financial intermediation sector could amplify the effects of such a correction. The financial system is highly interconnected. Stress in one sector can spread to others. Participants should continue to be proactive, including planning for more adverse conditions or outcomes. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/05/financial-stability-report-2024/

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BMO Survey: 72% of Aspiring Homeowners are Waiting for Rate Cuts Before Buying

4/29/2024

13% of aspiring homeowners plan on purchasing a home in 2024. 26% plan on doing so in 2025 or later. 62% believe owning a home is still one of lifes biggest aspirations, but 56% of aspiring homeowners feel owning a home is unattainable. The BMO Real Financial Progress Index reveals the majority (72%) of aspiring homeowners are waiting until interest rates drop before purchasing a home a 4% increase from 2023 amid rising concerns about the cost of living (58%), inflation (56%) and their overall financial situation (38%), over the past three months. According to BMO Economics, homebuyers may need to wait longer for affordability relief. The Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged in April, but left the possibility open for a rate cut by June or July 2024. Demographic forces have allowed some pent-up demand to build, and market psychology is such that many are expecting rate cuts in the second half of the year, said Robert Kavcic, Senior Economist, BMO Capital Markets. This should pull some demand off the sideline and firm up housing activity, but rates have a long way to fall still before affordability is restored to recent norms. The BMO Real Financial Progress Index found 85% of Canadians believe they are making real financial progress and over two thirds (67%) feel confident in their financial situation, but fear of unknown expenses (84%) and concerns about their overall financial situation (81%) and housing costs (74%) are among the leading sources of financial anxiety. https://newsroom.bmo.com/2024-04-29-BMO-Survey-72-of-Aspiring-Homeowners-are-Waiting-for-Rate-Cuts-Before-Buying

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Home office expenses for employees for 2023

4/22/2024

Eligible employees who worked from home in 2023 will be required to use the Detailed Method to claim home office expenses. The temporary flat rate method does not apply to the 2023 tax year. As an employee, you may be able to claim certain home office expenses (work-space-in-the-home expenses, office supplies, and certain phone expenses). This deduction is claimed on your personal income tax return. Deductions reduce the amount of income you pay tax on, so they reduce your overall income tax liability. Salaried employees can claim: Electricity, Heat, Water, some utilities, monthly Internet access or part of your rent. Commission employees can also claim: home insurance, property taxes and lease of a cell phone, computer and more. Review the CRA website for more. https://www.canada.ca/en/revenue-agency/services/tax/individuals/topics/about-your-tax-return/tax-return/completing-a-tax-return/deductions-credits-expenses/line-22900-other-employment-expenses/work-space-home-expenses.html

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SCOTIABANK: SPEND LIKE THERE IS NO TOMORROW, TAX LIKE THERE IS

4/17/2024

Canadas federal Finance Minister tabled Budget 2024 on April 16th. Gross new spending measures were substantially higher than signalled ahead of budget day, with equally substantial taxation measures partially offsetting the net impact. The budget adds a near-term boost to growth with major new spending, but it introduces another twist as it gives with one hand while taking with the other. While net new spending amounts to 0.4% f GDP over the next two years, gross outlays to Canadians adds up to a much more substantial $22.5 bn (0.7%), while syphoning off $9.5 bn from drivers of growth. This is additive to the $44 bn incremental spending provinces have announced in recent weeks. The budget clearly makes the Bank of Canadas job more difficult. The soft inflation print released into the budget risks fanning complacency around the risk of a resurgence in inflationary pressure particularly with a housing market rebound waiting in the wings (and more potential buyers on the margin after this budget). New spending is hardly focused. A gross $56.8 bn is spread widely across a range of priorities. The new Housing Plan reflects just 1/6th of new outlays. Others were channeled aheadmilitary spending, AI investments, and pharmacarewhile new pledges were tabled towards Aboriginal investments, community spending, and a new disability benefit among others. New tax measures will yield a $21.9 bn offsetnotably a big increase to the capital gains inclusion rate from one-half to two-thirds for individuals and corporations later this Spring. The net cost of new measures in this budget lands at $34.8 bn over the planning horizon. Near-term economic momentum has provided additional offsets ($29.1 bn), leaving the fiscal path broadly similar to the Fall Update. The FY24 deficit comes in on the mark at $40 bn (1.4% of GDP) and is expected to descend softly to $20 bn (0.6%) by FY29. Debt remains largely on a similar path of modest declines as a share of GDP over the horizon. The fiscal plan could have delivered on critical priorities including the Housing Plan, along with AI and Indigenous spending, while still adhering to its fiscal anchors without resorting to substantial new taxation measures that will dampen confidence and introduce further distortions to Canadas competitive landscape. It wont likely trigger an election, but it is clearly a warm-up lap as Canadians brace for the polls within the next 1218 months. The taps are unlikely to be turned off any time soon. Source: https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.fiscal-policy.fiscal-pulse.federal.federal-budget-analysis-.canadian-federal--2024-25-budget--april-16--2024-.html

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

4/11/2024

The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. The Bank expects the global economy to continue growing at a rate of about 3%, with inflation in most advanced economies easing gradually. The US economy has again proven stronger than anticipated, buoyed by resilient consumption and robust business and government spending. US GDP growth is expected to slow in the second half of this year, but remain stronger than forecast in January. The euro area is projected to gradually recover from current weak growth. Global oil prices have moved up, averaging about $5 higher than assumed in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Since January, bond yields have increased but, with narrower corporate credit spreads and sharply higher equity markets, overall financial conditions have eased. The Bank has revised up its forecast for global GDP growth to 2% in 2024 and about 3% in 2025 and 2026. Inflation continues to slow across most advanced economies, although progress will likely be bumpy. Inflation rates are projected to reach central bank targets in 2025. In Canada, economic growth stalled in the second half of last year and the economy moved into excess supply. A broad range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions continue to ease. Employment has been growing more slowly than the working-age population and the unemployment rate has risen gradually, reaching 6.1% in March. There are some recent signs that wage pressures are moderating. Source:https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/fad-press-release-2024-04-10

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Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations—First Quarter of 2024

4/10/2024

Consumers believe inflation has slowed, but their expectations for inflation in the near term have barely changed. Consumers link their perceptions of slowing inflation with their own experiences of price changes for frequently purchased items, such as food and gas. Expectations for long-term inflation have increased, though they remain below their historical average. Relative to last quarter, consumers now think that factors contributing to high inflationparticularly high government spending and elevated home prices and rent costswill take longer to resolve. Canadians continue to feel the negative impacts of high inflation and high interest rates on their budgets, and nearly two-thirds are cutting or postponing spending in response. Although weak, consumer sentiment improved this quarter, with people expecting lower interest rates. As a result, consumers are less pessimistic about the future of the economy and their financial situation, and fewer think they will need to further cut or postpone spending. Improved sentiment is also evident in perceptions of the labour market, which have stabilized after easing over recent quarters. Workers continue to feel positive about the labour market and, with inflation expected to be high, they continue to anticipate stronger-than-average wage growth. Source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/04/canadian-survey-of-consumer-expectations-first-quarter-of-2024

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TD Economic Report: Canadian Highlights

3/25/2024

Central bankers took the stage this week, but it was Canadian economic data that stole the show. A significant improvement in inflation for February and a weak reading on retail sales increased expectations for an earlier cut by the Bank of Canada (BoC). Adding to this was the release of the BoCs March deliberations that confirmed the Bank is preparing to cut rates later this year. While the exact timing of the first rate cut is still uncertain, market pricing has rallied around June/July, matching expectations on timing for other major central banks. The inflation reading this week showed a meaningful deceleration, with the headline measure remaining within the BoC 1% to 3% target band. But the big surprise was the heavy discounting on items like clothing, cell phone /internet plans, and food. For the latter, that was the first contraction in three years (seasonally adjusted)! As Deputy Governor Toni Gravelle said at a speech later in the week, this was very encouraging. What was even more promising was the progress on the BoCs preferred inflation metrics. While these have remained stubbornly high over the last few months, they too have started to ease and now sit just above the 3% band. These metrics are starting to follow other measures of inflation lower, including the Banks old preferred inflation measure, CPIX. This index excludes the eight most volatile inflation items such as mortgage interest costs. Importantly, this measure has now reached the BoCs 2% target. Source: TD Economics https://economics.td.com/ca-weekly-bottom-line

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Canadian Home Prices See Sudden End to Declines in Advance of Spring Market

3/18/2024

Canadian home prices as measured by the seasonally adjusted Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) were flat on a month-over-month basis in February 2024, ending a streak of five declines that began last fall, according to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). The fact that prices were unchanged from January to February was noteworthy given they had dropped 1.3% from December to January. Considering how stable the seasonally adjusted MLS HPI tends to be, shifts this abrupt are exceedingly rare. There have only been three other times in the last 20 years that have shared a sudden improvement or increase in the month-over-month percentage change from one month to the next of this size; all at various points in the last four years when demand was coming off the sidelines. Its looking like February may end up being the last relatively uneventful month of the year as far as the 2024 housing story goes, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. With so much demand having piled up on the sidelines, the story will likely be less about the exact timing of interest rate cuts and more about how many homes come up for sale this year. Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems dipped 3.1% between January and February 2024, giving back some of the cumulative 12.7% increase in activity recorded in December 2023 and January 2024. That said, the general trend has been somewhat higher levels of activity over the last three months compared to a quiet fall market in 2023. Source: https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

3/6/2024

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Global economic growth slowed in the fourth quarter. US GDP growth also slowed but remained surprisingly robust and broad-based, with solid contributions from consumption and exports. Euro area economic growth was flat at the end of the year after contracting in the third quarter. Inflation in the United States and the euro area continued to ease. Bond yields have increased since January while corporate credit spreads have narrowed. Equity markets have risen sharply. Global oil prices are slightly higher than what was assumed in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In Canada, the economy grew in the fourth quarter by more than expected, although the pace remained weak and below potential. Real GDP expanded by 1% after contracting 0.5% in the third quarter. Consumption was up a modest 1%, and final domestic demand contracted with a large decline in business investment. A strong increase in exports boosted growth. Employment continues to grow more slowly than the population, and there are now some signs that wage pressures may be easing. Overall, the data point to an economy in modest excess supply. Source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/03/fad-press-release-2024-03-06/

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CMHC announced on March 1 that The First-Time Home Buyer Incentive program will be ending

3/1/2024

The deadline for submitting new or updated applications for the First-Time Home Buyer Incentive is March 21, 2024, at midnight ET. No new approvals will be granted after March 31, 2024. Initially designed to alleviate the burden of monthly mortgage payments for first-time buyers, the program involved the government acquiring partial ownership of a property. Under the program, the government provided a loan of up to 10 percent of the purchase price, which could be put towards a larger down payment, thereby reducing monthly payments. However, homeowners were required to repay the incentive after 25 years or upon selling the property, with the repayment amount adjusted to reflect changes in the propertys value. Source:https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/consumers/home-buying/first-time-home-buyer-incentive

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No respite for Canadian housing affordability in Q4 2023

2/23/2024

From National Bank of Canada The fourth quarter of 2023 witnessed a second consecutive deterioration for housing affordability in Canada. The degradation was widespread with every single market experiencing an increase in their mortgage payment as a percentage of income (MPPI) due to both higher interest rates and rising home prices. This worsening has practically eliminated recent improvements in affordability and our index at the national level is almost back to its worst affordability since the 1980s. That said, the headline index dissimulates a more worrisome picture. Indeed, the condo sub-index has reached its highest level of unaffordability in at least two decades. In other words, it would take nearly half of pre-tax median household income to service the median condo mortgage. With the condo market typically being the entry point for first-time homebuyers it leaves the latter with few options. While homeownership is becoming untenable, the rental market offers little respite. Our rental affordability index has never been worse. It would take nearly one third of pre-tax household income to pay for the average rent of a two-bedroom condo. The outlook for the coming year is fraught with challenges. While mortgage interest rates are showing signs of waning in the face of expected rate cuts by the central bank, housing demand remains supported by unprecedented population growth. As a result, we expect some upside to prices in 2024. On the rental side, in a recently released report by the CMHC, Canada`s rental market vacancy stumbled to a record low of 1.5% which leaves little room for an improvement in rents. Supply for any segment of the market isn`t expected to pick up anytime soon as building permits in many Canadian cities has plummeted at the end of 2023. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

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Canadian Home Sales Showing Signs of Recovery

2/15/2024

Following a weak second half of 2023, home sales over the last two months are showing signs of recovery, according to the latest data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA). Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems rose 3.7% between December 2023 and January 2024, building on the 7.9% month-over-month increase recorded the month prior. While activity is now back on par with 2023s relatively stronger months recorded over the spring and summer, it begins 2024 about 9% below the 10-year average. Sales are up, market conditions have tightened quite a bit, and there has been anecdotal evidence of renewed competition among buyers; however, in areas where sales have shot up most over the last two months, prices are still trending lower. Taken together, these trends suggest a market that is starting to turn a corner but is still working through the weakness of the last two years, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

1/24/2024

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Global economic growth continues to slow, with inflation easing gradually across most economies. While growth in the United States has been stronger than expected, it is anticipated to slow in 2024, with weakening consumer spending and business investment. In the euro area, the economy looks to be in a mild contraction. In China, low consumer confidence and policy uncertainty will likely restrain activity. Meanwhile, oil prices are about $10 per barrel lower than was assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have eased, largely reversing the tightening that occurred last autumn. The Bank now forecasts global GDP growth of 2% in 2024 and 2% in 2025, following 2023s 3% pace. With softer growth this year, inflation rates in most advanced economies are expected to come down slowly, reaching central bank targets in 2025. In Canada, the economy has stalled since the middle of 2023 and growth will likely remain close to zero through the first quarter of 2024. Consumers have pulled back their spending in response to higher prices and interest rates, and business investment has contracted. With weak growth, supply has caught up with demand and the economy now looks to be operating in modest excess supply. Labour market conditions have eased, with job vacancies returning to near pre-pandemic levels and new jobs being created at a slower rate than population growth. However, wages are still rising around 4% to 5%. Source: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2024/01/fad-press-release-2024-01-24/

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Income gap widens as higher interest rates reduce income for lowest income households

1/22/2024

Income inequality increased in the third quarter as the gap in the share of disposable income between households in the two highest income quintiles (top 40% of the income distribution) and two lowest income quintiles (bottom 40% of the income distribution) reached 44.9%, up 0.5 percentage points from the third quarter of 2022. The lowest income householdsthose in the bottom 20% of the income distributionwere the only income group to reduce their average disposable income in the third quarter of 2023 relative to the same quarter of 2022 (-1.2%). Gains in average wages and salaries for the lowest income households (+3.0%) were more than offset by reductions in net investment income (-43.4%). While higher interest rates can lead to increased borrowing costs for households, they can also lead to higher yields on saving and investment accounts. The lowest income households are more likely to have a limited capacity to take advantage of these higher returns, as on average they have fewer resources available for saving and investment. Higher interest rates weighed on average disposable income for the lowest income households in the third quarter. Along with a doubling of the Bank of Canadas policy interest rate from 2.5% in July 2022 to 5.0% as of July 2023, net investment income declined for the lowest income households in the third quarter of 2023 relative to a year earlier. The lowest income earners reduced their net investment income as increased interest payments, more than half of which was due to consumer credit, outweighed gains in investment earnings. Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/240122/dq240122a-eng.htm?HPA=1

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Canadian Home Sales See Unexpected Surge to Close Out 2023

1/16/2024

Home sales activity recorded over Canadian MLS Systems rose 8.7% between November and December 2023, putting it on par with some of last years relatively stronger months recorded over the spring and summer. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions came in 3.7% above December 2022, the largest year-over-year gain since August. On an annual basis, home sales totalled 443,511 units in 2023, a decline of 11.1% from 2022. It was technically the lowest annual level for national sales activity since 2008; although it was very close to levels recorded in each of the five years following the 2008 financial crisis, as well as the first year the uninsured stress test was implemented in 2018. While December did offer up a bit of a surprise in sales numbers to cap the year, the real test of the markets resilience will be in the spring, said Larry Cerqua, Chair of CREA. There are only a couple of months left until that gets underway. If youre looking to buy or sell a property in the 2024, youll want a game plan, so contact a REALTOR in your area today, continued Cerqua. Was the December bounce in home sales the start of the expected recovery in Canadian housing markets? Probably not just yet, said Shaun Cathcart, CREAs Senior Economist. It was more likely just some of the sellers and buyers that were holding onto unrealistic pricing expectations last fall finally coming together to get deals done before the end of the year. Were still forecasting a recovery in housing demand in 2024, but well have to wait a few more months to get a sense of what that ultimately looks like. Source: https://www.crea.ca/media-hub/news/canadian-home-sales-see-unexpected-surge-to-close-out-2023/

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Riding Out the Mortgage Tides is a 'Mission Possible' for Canadian Households

12/15/2023

Higher borrowing costs are leaving a permanent mark on the Canadian families who by the end of 2024 would have to budget for a roughly 30% increase in their monthly mortgage payments, on average. On aggregate, mortgage payments growth is forecast to slow next year, remain relatively flat in 2025 but pick up again in 2026, even if Canadian economy falls into a mild recession in 2024. Elevated mortgage payments will create an enduring drag on consumption and broader economic growth. Despite this, a relatively more resilient job market and largely unspent excess deposits should provide enough support for an average Canadian family to manage an increased debt servicing cost. https://economics.td.com/ca-mortgage-tides-canada-households

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Home sales plummet in October as affordability remains an issue

12/15/2023

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales dropped 5.6% from September to October, a fourth monthly contraction in a row and the sharpest slowdown in sales since June 2022. On the supply side, new listings decreased 2.3% in October, a first decline in seven months. Active listing increased by 4.6%, a fourth monthly gain in a row. As a result the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) increased from 3.7 in September to 4.1 in October and is now roughly back in line with its pre-pandemic level. The market conditions loosened during the month but remained tighter than its historical average in 7 provinces, while market conditions were balanced in B.C. and Manitoba, and looser than average in Ontario. Housing starts rose 4.0K in October to a 4-month high of 274.7K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result comfortably above the median economist forecast calling for a 255.0K print. Urban starts advanced 6.1K (to 257.4K) on gains in both the multi-family (+2.1K to 209.9K) and the single-family segment (+4.0K to 47.5K). Starts decreased in Toronto (-13.9K to 44.6K), Montreal (-13.6K to 18.2K), and Calgary (-9.0K to 34.8K), while they increased in Vancouver (+9.0K to 34.8K). The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.4% in October after seasonal adjustment. seven of the 11 markets in the composite index were still up during the month: Montreal (+3.7%), Halifax (+1.1%), Winnipeg (+1.0%), Quebec City (+0.9%), Calgary (+0.6%), Victoria (+0.3%) and Hamilton (+0.2%). Conversely, prices were down in Toronto (-1.6%), Edmonton (-1.2%), Vancouver (-1.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.1%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

12/7/2023

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. The global economy continues to slow and inflation has eased further. In the United States, growth has been stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending, but is likely to weaken in the months ahead as past policy rate increases work their way through the economy. Growth in the euro area has weakened and, combined with lower energy prices, this has reduced inflationary pressures. Oil prices are about $10-per-barrel lower than was assumed in the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Financial conditions have also eased, with long-term interest rates unwinding some of the sharp increases seen earlier in the autumn. The US dollar has weakened against most currencies, including Canadas. In Canada, economic growth stalled through the middle quarters of 2023. Real GDP contracted at a rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, following growth of 1.4% in the second quarter. Higher interest rates are clearly restraining spending: consumption growth in the last two quarters was close to zero, and business investment has been volatile but essentially flat over the past year. Exports and inventory adjustment subtracted from GDP growth in the third quarter, while government spending and new home construction provided a boost. The labour market continues to ease: job creation has been slower than labour force growth, job vacancies have declined further, and the unemployment rate has risen modestly. Even so, wages are still rising by 4-5%. Overall, these data and indicators for the fourth quarter suggest the economy is no longer in excess demand.

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Housing affordability: Significant deterioration in Q3 2023

11/10/2023

From National Bank of Canada The third quarter of 2023 witnessed a considerable deterioration for housing affordability in Canada. This degradation follows three consecutive quarters of improvements and deletes nearly two thirds of the progress that had been made so far. The worsening was widespread with every single market experiencing an increase in their mortgage payment as a percentage of income (MPPI). At the national level the deterioration stemmed from a surge in home prices of 4.6%, the largest in 6 quarters and partially erasing the decline over the last year. A rebound in home prices during a period of rising interest rates could initially appear perplexing. That said, a chronic lack of supply in the resale market compounded by record population growth has allowed prices to rise. Also contributing to lessening affordability, mortgage interest rates rose 32 basis points in the quarter, more than eliminating the two prior declines. While still rising income was a partial offset in the third quarter, it did little to assuage the situation. Looking ahead, we see a moribund outlook for affordability. At the very least, a further worsening is in the cards for the last quarter of the year. Mortgage interest rates have steadily trended up in October on the back of rising longer-term interest rates. If interest rates hold at their current level, it would only take a home price increase of 2% in the fourth quarter to surpass the worst level of affordability in a generation. The outlook remains particularly challenging for first-time homebuyers. HIGHLIGHTS: Canadian housing affordability posted a worsening in Q323 following three consecutive improvements. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) rose 4.0 points, more than erasing the previous pullback of 1.6-points in Q223. Seasonally adjusted home prices increased 4.6% in Q323 from Q223; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) surged 32 bps, while median household income rose 1.2%. Affordability deteriorated in all of the ten markets covered in Q3. On a sliding scale of markets from worst deterioration to least: Vancouver, Toronto, Victoria, Hamilton, Calgary, Montreal, Quebec, Ottawa-Gatineau, Winnipeg, and Edmonton. Countrywide, affordability worsened 2.5 pp in the condo portion vs. a 4.5 pp degradation in the non-condo segment. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

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Housing market slowed in September as interest rates weigh in

11/3/2023

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales decreased 1.9% from August to September, a third monthly contraction in a row following the renewed monetary tightening cycle of the Bank of Canada and the surge in long-term interest rates. On the supply side, new listings jumped 6.3% in September, a sixth consecutive monthly increase. Overall, active listing increased by 3.7%, a third monthly gain in a row. As a result the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) increased from 3.5 in August to 3.7 in September. This continues to be higher than the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. The active-listings to sales ratio loosened during the month but remained tighter than its historical average in every province except Ontario, which now indicated a slightly less tight market than the average. Housing starts rose 20.1K in September to a 3-month high of 270.5K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), a result comfortably above the median economist forecast calling for a 240.0K print. At the provincial level, total starts went up in Ontario (+19.3K to 103.6K), Alberta (+8.7K to a seven-and-a-half-year high of 49.1K) and Nova Scotia (+5.1K to 8.1K). Alternatively, declines were recorded in British Columbia (-8.6K to a 7-month low of 40.5K) and Saskatchewan (-2.7K to 3.4K). The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose 0.7% in September after seasonal adjustment. All 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Halifax (+1.9%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.7%), Victoria (+1.7%), Vancouver (+1.1%) and Calgary (+0. 9%) posted stronger-than-average growth, while Winnipeg (+0.7%) matched the composite index, and Montreal (+0.1%), Hamilton (+0.1%), Edmonton (+0.2%), Toronto (+0.5%) and Quebec City (+0.5%) saw less vigorous increases. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

10/26/2023

The Bank of Canada yesterday held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. The global economy is slowing and growth is forecast to moderate further as past increases in policy rates and the recent surge in global bond yields weigh on demand. The Bank projects global GDP growth of 2.9% this year, 2.3% in 2024 and 2.6% in 2025. While this global growth outlook is little changed from the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), the composition has shifted, with the US economy proving stronger and economic activity in China weaker than expected. Growth in the euro area has slowed further. Inflation has been easing in most economies, as supply bottlenecks resolve and weaker demand relieves price pressures. However, with underlying inflation persisting, central banks continue to be vigilant. Oil prices are higher than was assumed in July, and the war in Israel and Gaza is a new source of geopolitical uncertainty. In Canada, there is growing evidence that past interest rate increases are dampening economic activity and relieving price pressures. Consumption has been subdued, with softer demand for housing, durable goods and many services. Weaker demand and higher borrowing costs are weighing on business investment. The surge in Canadas population is easing labour market pressures in some sectors while adding to housing demand and consumption. In the labour market, recent job gains have been below labour force growth and job vacancies have continued to ease. However, the labour market remains on the tight side and wage pressures persist. Overall, a range of indicators suggest that supply and demand in the economy are now approaching balance. After averaging 1% over the past year, economic growth is expected to continue to be weak for the next year before increasing in late 2024 and through 2025. The near-term weakness in growth reflects both the broadening impact of past increases in interest rates and slower foreign demand. The subsequent pickup is driven by household spending as well as stronger exports and business investment in response to improving foreign demand. Spending by governments contributes materially to growth over the forecast horizon. Overall, the Bank expects the Canadian economy to grow by 1.2% this year, 0.9% in 2024 and 2.5% in 2025. CPI inflation has been volatile in recent months2.8% in June, 4.0% in August, and 3.8% in September. Higher interest rates are moderating inflation in many goods that people buy on credit, and this is spreading to services. Food inflation is easing from very high rates. However, in addition to elevated mortgage interest costs, inflation in rent and other housing costs remains high. Near-term inflation expectations and corporate pricing behaviour are normalizing only gradually, and wages are still growing around 4% to 5%. The Banks preferred measures of core inflation show little downward momentum. In the Banks October projection, CPI inflation is expected to average about 3% through the middle of next year before gradually easing to 2% in 2025. Inflation returns to target about the same time as in the July projection, but the near-term path is higher because of energy prices and ongoing persistence in core inflation. With clearer signs that monetary policy is moderating spending and relieving price pressures, Governing Council decided to hold the policy rate at 5% and to continue to normalize the Banks balance sheet. However, Governing Council is concerned that progress towards price stability is slow and inflationary risks have increased, and is prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed. Governing Council wants to see downward momentum in core inflation, and continues to be focused on the balance between demand and supply in the economy, inflation expectations, wage growth and corporate pricing behaviour. The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 6, 2023. The Bank will publish its next full outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, in the MPR on January 24, 2024. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/10/fad-press-release-2023-10-25/

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CMHC Housing Supply Report

10/13/2023

HIGHLIGHTS Total housing starts across the countrys 6 largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs) increased slightly in the first half of 2023. Significant changes were observed for individual dwelling types and CMAs. Notable strength in apartment starts offset declines in all other dwelling types (single-detached, semi-detached and row homes). Apartment starts were concentrated in Toronto and Vancouver. This led to strong growth in total starts in those CMAs, offsetting lower starts in other CMAs, particularly Montral. As a result, in Toronto and Vancouver, housing starts in the first half of 2023 were well above levels observed over the past 5 years. In most other large centres, meanwhile, they were below these levels. Montral tends to build more small and low-rise apartment structures than Toronto and Vancouver. Because of their smaller size, these structures take less time to plan and build. The decline in housing starts in Montral was, therefore, more reflective of the recent deterioration in financial conditions. Elevated rates of apartment construction are not likely to be sustainable due to various challenges facing developers. These challenges include higher construction costs and higher interest rates. Significant increases in construction productivity are critical to addressing the countrys affordability and housing supply crisis over the longer term. The level of new construction activity remains too low. cmhc-schl.gc.ca

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Housing prices set to moderate in coming months

10/6/2023

With renewed activity in the residential real estate market in recent months, the seasonally adjusted Teranet-National Bank composite index rose by 1.6% from July to August, the fourth consecutive monthly increase. As a result, the composite index is now just 2.1% below its all-time peak of April 2022, following a record cumulative decline of 8.6% over one year. The widespread nature of Augusts rise is also noteworthy, as this is the first time since March 2021 that monthly increases have been observed in all the CMAs included in the composite index. However, there is reason to believe that this strength is likely to be short-lived, given the slowdown observed in the resale market over the last two months in connection with the renewal of the Bank of Canadas monetary tightening cycle. Although price declines are expected in the coming months due to the growing impact of interest rates and the less favourable economic context, property price decreases should remain limited thanks to the support of historical demographic growth and the persistent lack of housing supply. HIGHLIGHTS: The Teranet National Bank Composite National House Price IndexTM rose by 1.6% in August after seasonal adjustment. After seasonal adjustment, all 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Calgary (+3.5%), Vancouver (+2.8%) and Hamilton (+2.4%) reported stronger-than-average growth, while growth Halifax (+1.4%), Quebec City (+1.3%), Toronto (+1.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.1%), Edmonton (+1.1%), Winnipeg (+0.7%), Montreal (+0.7%) and Victoria (+0.2%) were less vigorous. From August 2022 to August 2023, the composite index rose by 1.1%, the first annual increase in nine months. Growth was seen in Calgary (+6.2%), Halifax (+5.1%), Quebec City (+3.6%), Vancouver (+2.7%) and Toronto (+1.4%), while prices were still down in Edmonton (-0.3%), Victoria (-1.5%), Montreal (-1.7%), Hamilton (-1.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-2.3%) and Winnipeg (-3.6%) https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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Housing Market Monitor: Housing market slowed in August as interest rates weigh in

9/29/2023

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales decreased 4.1% from July to August, a second monthly contraction in a row following the renewed monetary tightening cycle of the Bank of Canada. On the supply side, new listings increased 0.8% in August, a fifth consecutive monthly increase. Another sign of a loss of momentum in the real estate market is the proportion of listings cancelled during the month, which continues to rise, a sign that some sellers are discouraged by recent interest rate hikes. Overall, active listing increased by 1.9%, a third monthly gain in a row. As a result the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) increased from 3.2 in July to 3.4 in August. This continues to be higher than the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical average in every province. Housing starts in Canada decreased slightly in August (-2.4K to 252.8K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), beating consensus expectations calling for a 250K print. Decreases in housing starts were seen in Ontario (-14.9K to 84.6K), Manitoba (-3.2K to 6.8K), and Nova Scotia (-2.5 to 3.2K). Meanwhile, increases were registered in Quebec (+14.8K to 53.1K), New Brunswick (+2.1 to 7.1K), Alberta (+1.1K to 39.6K), and Saskatchewan (+0.2K to 5.5), while starts in Newfoundland (1.1K), P.E.I. (1.2K), and B.C. (50.7K) remained unchanged. The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 1.6% in August after seasonal adjustment. All 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Calgary (+3.5%), Vancouver (+2.8%) and Hamilton (+2. 4%) reported stronger-than-average growth, while Halifax (+1.4%), Quebec City (+1.3%), Toronto (+1.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.1%), Edmonton (+1.1%), Winnipeg (+0.7%), Montreal (+0.7%) and Victoria (+0.2%) were less vigorous. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Housing shortages in Canada: Updating how much housing we need by 2030

9/15/2023

From CMHC Key Highlights To restore affordability, we maintain our 2022 projection that Canada will need 3.5 million more units on top of whats already being built. Weve adjusted our 2030 projection for how many housing units there will be in Canada in 2030 based on current rates of new construction. Our most recent projection is 18.2 million units, down from our 2022 estimate of 18.6 million. This is largely due to the shortfall in housing construction. About 60% of the 3.5 million housing unit gap is in Ontario and British Columbia. This is because housing supply hasnt kept up with demand over the past 20 years in some of the largest urban centres. Additional supply will also be needed in Quebec. Once considered affordable, the province has become less affordable over the last few years. More supply need is also projected for Alberta due to strong economic growth. Other provinces remain affordable to households with an average level of disposable income. However, challenges remain for low-income households in accessing housing that is affordable across Canada. In addition to our baseline scenario of 3.5 million additional units being needed to restore affordability by 2030, we offer 2 alternate scenarios: a high-population- growth scenario and a low-economic-growth scenario. We provide regional highlights for areas across the country. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

9/8/2023

The Bank of Canada on Wednesday held its target for the overnight rate at 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Inflation in advanced economies has continued to come down, but with measures of core inflation still elevated, major central banks remain focused on restoring price stability. Global growth slowed in the second quarter of 2023, largely reflecting a significant deceleration in China. With ongoing weakness in the property sector undermining confidence, growth prospects in China have diminished. In the United States, growth was stronger than expected, led by robust consumer spending. In Europe, strength in the service sector supported growth, offsetting an ongoing contraction in manufacturing. Global bond yields have risen, reflecting higher real interest rates, and international oil prices are higher than was assumed in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). The Canadian economy has entered a period of weaker growth, which is needed to relieve price pressures. Economic growth slowed sharply in the second quarter of 2023, with output contracting by 0.2% at an annualized rate. This reflected a marked weakening in consumption growth and a decline in housing activity, as well as the impact of wildfires in many regions of the country. Household credit growth slowed as the impact of higher rates restrained spending among a wider range of borrowers. Final domestic demand grew by 1% in the second quarter, supported by government spending and a boost to business investment. The tightness in the labour market has continued to ease gradually. However, wage growth has remained around 4% to 5%. Recent CPI data indicate that inflationary pressures remain broad-based. After easing to 2.8% in June, CPI inflation moved up to 3.3% in July, averaging close to 3% in line with the Banks projection. With the recent increase in gasoline prices, CPI inflation is expected to be higher in the near term before easing again. Year-over-year and three-month measures of core inflation are now both running at about 3.5%, indicating there has been little recent downward momentum in underlying inflation. The longer high inflation persists, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched, making it more difficult to restore price stability. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/09/fad-press-release-2023-09-06/

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Housing market stabilizing as rising interest rates weigh in July

9/1/2023

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales decreased 0.7% from June to July, a first monthly contraction in six months following the renewed monetary tightening cycle of the Bank of Canada. On the supply side, new listings jumped 5.6% in July, a fourth consecutive monthly increase. Another sign of a loss of momentum in the real estate market is the proportion of listings cancelled during the month, which is back on the rise, a sign that some sellers are discouraged by recent interest rate hikes. Overall, active listing increased by 2.5%, the second monthly gain in a row. As a result, the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) increased from 3.1 in June to 3.2 in July. This continues to be higher than the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical average in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only Manitoba indicating a ratio slightly above historical norm. Housing starts in Canada decreased in July (-28.5 to 255.0K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), beating consensus expectations calling for a 244K print. This decline follows the strongest growth ever recorded the previous month. Decreases in housing starts were seen in Ontario (-21.8K to 99.5K), British Columbia (-15.2K to 50.7K), Nova Scotia (-8.1K to 5.8K) and Saskatchewan (-1.9K to 5.3K). Meanwhile, increases were registered in Alberta (+11.9K to 38.5K), Quebec (+3.1K to 38.0K), Manitoba (+2.1K to 10K), New Brunswick (+0.6K to 5.0K), P.E.I. (+0.6K to 1.2K), while starts in Newfoundland (+0.1K to 1.1K) remained essentially unchanged. The Teranet National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 2.4% in July after seasonal adjustment. Eight of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Halifax (+4.9%), Hamilton (+4.4%), Vancouver (+3.9%), Toronto (+3.5%), Victoria (+1.6%), Winnipeg (+1.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.6%) and Edmonton (+0.3%). Conversely, prices fell in Quebec City (-1.2%), Montreal (-0.9%) and Calgary (-0.3%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Canada: Spectacular jump in house prices in July

8/25/2023

Following the recovery of the residential real estate market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite index jumped by 2.4% from June to July, the fourth consecutive monthly increase, but also the second highest price increase ever recorded in a single month after the one observed in July 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.6% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased a part of this correction, which now stands at just 3.8%. Interestingly, the recent upturn in prices has been greatest in the cities that have seen the biggest corrections. However, only four of the 32 CMAs covered have completely erased their price declines: Saint John, Lethbridge, Quebec City and Trois-Rivires. Prices could continue to rise in the third quarter, supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market. That said, the deterioration in affordability with recent interest rate hikes in a less buoyant economic context should represent a headwind for house prices thereafter. HIGHLIGHTS: The Teranet National Bank Composite National House Price IndexTM rose by 2.4% in July after seasonal adjustment. After seasonal adjustment, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Halifax (+4.9%), Hamilton (+4.4%), Vancouver (+3.9%), Toronto (+3.5%), Victoria (+1.6%), Winnipeg (+1.3%), Ottawa-Gatineau (+0.6%) and Edmonton (+0.3%). Conversely, prices fell in Quebec City (-1.2%), Montreal (-0.9%) and Calgary (-0.3%). From July 2022 to July 2023, the composite index fell by 1.9%, a smaller contraction than in the previous month. Price increases in Calgary (+3.3%), Halifax (+2.1%) and Quebec City (+1.1%) were more than offset by declines in Edmonton (-0.1%), Vancouver (-0.6%), Toronto (-2.1%), Montreal (-2.6%), Victoria (-2.7%), Winnipeg (-5.2%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-5.4%) and Hamilton (-7.9%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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Housing affordability: Recent improvement will not carry into H2 2023

8/11/2023

From National Bank of Canada The second quarter of 2023 saw housing affordability in Canada post a third consecutive improvement. While not as substantial as the previous two betterments, it still marked an advancement for 9 of the 10 markets covered. Taken together, the last three quarters represent a 7.1 percentage point decline for the mortgage payment as a percentage of income (MPPI). While that was a positive development, it pales in light of the 24.6pp worsening in affordability in the two previous years and only brings affordability back to levels last seen a year ago. The MPPI now stands at 59.3%, still way off the average since 2000 of 42.5%. The improvement mostly stemmed from a decrease in home prices. The latter declined 1.2% in the quarter which brings the cumulative decline over the last year to 8.1%. This pullback is the largest observed in a generation but could have bottomed out according to house price index data. The Teranet-National Bank Composite HPI rose 2.2% seasonally adjusted in June, and momentum is expected to continue into the third quarter on the back of strong demographics and a lack of supply in the resale market. Compounding that headwind, after providing marginal respite in Q2 (-3 basis points), mortgage interest rates in July have crept up on the back of further tightening by the Bank of Canada and should be detrimental to affordability in the next report. Moreover, the flip side of restrictive monetary policy is a weakening economic outlook. In such a high interest rate environment, we cannot count on significant wage gains to improve affordability, as we expect the labour market to cool in the second half of the year. HIGHLIGHTS: Canadian housing affordability posted a third consecutive improvement in Q223. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) declined 1.6 points, a further pullback following the 3.2-point decrease in Q123. Seasonally adjusted home prices decreased 1.2% in Q223 from Q122; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) edged down 3 bps, while median household income rose 1.2%. Affordability improved in 9 of the ten markets covered in Q2. On a sliding scale of markets from best improvement to deterioration: Toronto, Hamilton, Ottawa-Gatineau, Victoria, Vancouver, Winnipeg, Edmonton, Calgary, Montreal, and Quebec. Countrywide, affordability improved 1.2 pp in the condo portion vs. a 1.8 pp improvement in the non-condo segment. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

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CREA Updates Resale Housing Market Forecast

8/4/2023

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity and average home prices via Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations for 2023 and 2024. As expected, national home sales came flying out of the gates in April 2023. Buyers who had been sitting on the fence responded to the twin signals of interest rates looking like they were at a top and property values hitting bottom. With the Bank of Canada unexpectedly ending its pause on rate hikes in June and hiking again in July, a major source of uncertainty has returned to the housing market. That said, even before the resumption of rate hikes, the recent sales rally had already shown signs of losing steam. The biggest month-over-month increase in sales activity was back in April, followed by an increase only half as big in May, then by a small 1.5% gain in June. This was likely because new listings had fallen to a 20-year low, which was reflected in month-over-month price gains in April, May, and June that were only bested by those seen during the COVID-19 pandemic. New listings are now catching up to sales, although this isnt expected to translate into further big gains in activity as some buyers will likely be moving back to the sidelines, as they did in 2022, to wait for additional signals from the Bank of Canada and the data it bases policy on. Looking further out, theres also a growing consensus that rates will not just be higher, but likely for longer well into 2024. As a result, CREA has downgraded its forecast for home sales in 2023 and 2024 compared to its April 2023 outlook, along with the trajectory for prices. Thats not to say either are necessarily expected to return to declines on a month-to-month basis, but rather to stabilize or rise at a slower pace than they have in recent months. https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/canadian-housing-market-stats/quarterly-forecasts/

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Spectacular jump in house prices in June

7/26/2023

Following the recovery of the residential housing market in recent months, the Teranet-National Bank composite HPI jumped 2.2% from May to June, marking the third consecutive monthly increase, but also the largest price rise in a single month since November 2006. After a cumulative decline of 8.7% since peaking in April 2022, recent rises in the composite index have erased part of this correction, which now stands at just 6.2%. This rebound is even more impressive given that 81% of cities covered in June saw an increase during the month, the best diffusion of growth since the composite index peaked last year. While prices could continue to be supported by strong demographic growth and the lack of supply of properties on the market, and continue to rise in the third quarter, the Bank of Canadas recent rate hikes and the economic weakness expected in subsequent quarters will represent a headwind for house prices thereafter. HIGHLIGHTS: The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 2.2% in June after seasonal adjustment. After seasonal adjustment, 9 of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Toronto (+2.9%), Vancouver (+2.6%), Quebec City (+2.6%), Halifax (+2.3%), Calgary (+2.1%), Victoria (+1.9%), Montreal (+1.4%). Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.0%) and Edmonton (+0.2%). Conversely, prices fell in Winnipeg (-0.2%), while remaining stable in Hamilton. From June 2022 to June 2023, the composite index fell by 5.1%, a smaller contraction than in the previous month. Price growth in Calgary (+6.5%). Quebec City (+5.2%) and Edmonton (+1.3%) was more than offset by declines in Montreal (-3.6%), Victoria (-3.8%), Vancouver (-5.0%). Halifax (-5.6%), Winnipeg (-5.7%). Toronto (-6.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-8.4%) and Hamilton (-13.4%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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Housing market stabilizing as rising interest rates weigh in June

7/21/2023

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 1.5% from May to June, a fifth consecutive monthly increase. However, this was a much smaller rise than the 4.6% in May and 11.1% in April, a slowdown that could have been induced by the additional tightening of the Bank of Canada. On the supply side, new listings jumped 5.9% in June, a third consecutive monthly increase. Overall, active listing increased marginally by 1.5% in Canada, keeping the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) unchanged at 3.1 in June. This continues to be higher than the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical average in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only Manitoba indicating a ratio above average. Housing starts in Canada increased in June (+81.4K to 281.4K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), beating consensus expectations calling for a 220.0K print. This increase more than offset Mays 58.9K decrease and was the sharpest ever. In urban areas, increases in housing starts were seen in Ontario (+50.2K to 116.8K), British Columbia (+24.9K to 63.6K), Quebec (+3.7K to 25.0K) and the Maritimes (+8.9K to 17.6K). Meanwhile, a decrease was registered in the Prairies (-5.5K to 39.2K) on gains in Saskatchewan (+4.6K to 6.7K) which were offset by losses in Alberta (-10.1K to 25.7K) while starts in Manitoba (-0.1K to 6.7K) remained essentially unchanged. The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 2.2% in June after seasonal adjustment. Nine of the eleven markets in the composite index were up during the month: Toronto (+2.9%), Vancouver +2.6%), Quebec City (+2.6%), Halifax (+2.3%), Calgary (+2.1%), Victoria (+1.9%), Montreal (+1.4%). Ottawa-Gatineau (+1.0%) and Edmonton (+0.2%). Conversely, prices fell in Winnipeg (- 0.2%), while remaining stable in Hamilton. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening

7/14/2023

The Bank of Canada increased its target for the overnight rate to 5%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 5%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Global inflation is easing, with lower energy prices and a decline in goods price inflation. However, robust demand and tight labour markets are causing persistent inflationary pressures in services. Economic growth has been stronger than expected, especially in the United States, where consumer and business spending has been surprisingly resilient. After a surge in early 2023, Chinas economic growth is softening, with slowing exports and ongoing weakness in its property sector. Growth in the euro area is effectively stalled: while the service sector continues to grow, manufacturing is contracting. Global financial conditions have tightened, with bond yields up in North America and Europe as major central banks signal further interest rate increases may be needed to combat inflation. The Banks July Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects the global economy will grow by around 2.8% this year and 2.4% in 2024, followed by 2.7% growth in 2025. Canadas economy has been stronger than expected, with more momentum in demand. Consumption growth has been surprisingly strong at 5.8% in the first quarter. While the Bank expects consumer spending to slow in response to the cumulative increase in interest rates, recent retail trade and other data suggest more persistent excess demand in the economy. In addition, the housing market has seen some pickup. New construction and real estate listings are lagging demand, which is adding pressure to prices. In the labour market, there are signs of more availability of workers, but conditions remain tight, and wage growth has been around 4-5%. Strong population growth from immigration is adding both demand and supply to the economy: newcomers are helping to ease the shortage of workers while also boosting consumer spending and adding to demand for housing. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/07/fad-press-release-2023-07-12/

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Provincial Housing Market Outlook - BoC Hikes to Send a Chill Through Buyers

7/7/2023

From TD Economics Huge second-quarter upside surprises in both Canadian home sales and average home prices, relative to our March projection, have left their mark on our updated forecast. Our modelling had suggested that sales had undershot levels consistent with underlying fundamentals (such as income and population growth, for example). However, with the recent surge, this gap has effectively been closed. The sharp rise in prices also deteriorated affordability by more than we thought would take place, which is also a negative for go-forward activity. In light of resilient housing and consumer spending data, the Bank of Canada nudged its policy rate higher in June after a 4-month hiatus. By the time July is over, policymakers will have injected an additional 50 bps of tightening relative to our prior expectations. Beyond the direct hit to affordability from a higher policy rate, a more hawkish central bank should chill the psychology of buyers who were previously rushing into the market after the Bank went on pause earlier in the year. Indeed, Bank of Canada signaling appears to be playing a major role in shaping housing market dynamics. Our bond yield forecast has also been materially upgraded. We expect Canadian home sales to decline in the second half of this year, reversing part of their recent strength. Furthermore, we anticipate purchases growing at a slower quarter-on-quarter pace than previously envisioned in 2024. Tight markets amid restrained supply should keep Canadian average price growth positive in the third quarter, but we anticipate prices dropping slightly in Q4. Like sales, weve marked down our quarterly growth profile next year relative to our March forecast. https://economics.td.com/ca-provincial-housing-outlook

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Home prices rise for the first time in 11 months

7/4/2023

After adjusting for seasonal effects, the Teranet-National Bank composite HPI resumed its upward trend (+0.6%) after ten consecutive monthly declines, which saw home prices correct by a total of 8.6%. This turnaround in property prices is due in particular to the rebound in the resale market over the past four months. This recovery is taking place against a backdrop of record demographic growth, which is accentuating the shortage of housing supply on the market. With domestic housing starts falling to their lowest level in three years in May, there is no reason to believe that the shortage of properties on the market will be resolved any time soon. However, the resumption of the monetary tightening cycle by the Bank of Canada in recent weeks and the expected slowdown in economic growth could moderate price growth later this year. HIGHLIGHTS: The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.6% in May after seasonal adjustment. After seasonal adjustment, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Toronto (+1.6%). Winnipeg (+1.5%), Victoria (+1.3%), Edmonton (+1.3%), Quebec City (+1.2%), Montreal (+1.0%), Hamilton (+0.5%) and Calgary (+0.1%). Conversely, prices fell during the month in Halifax (-2.6%), Vancouver (-1.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.3%). From May 2022 to May 2023, the composite index fell by 7.6%, a smaller contraction than in the previous month. Price growth in Calgary (8.3%). Edmonton (4.9%) and Quebec City (3.1%) was more than offset by declines in Montreal (-3.0%), Winnipeg (-6.8%), Victoria (-8.4%), Halifax (-8.5%), Vancouver (-8.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-9.5%), Toronto (-10.3%) and Hamilton (-16.8%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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Fourth consecutive monthly increase in home sales in May

6/23/2023

On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 5.1% from April to May, a fourth consecutive monthly increase. Sales growth continues to be widespread across the country again this month, with the biggest increases seen in P.E.I. (+22.3%), Saskatchewan (+9.2%) and Alberto (+8.0%). Conversely, Nova Scotia (+0.9%) and Manitoba (+1.0%) saw smaller increases. On the supply side, new listings jumped 6.8% in May, a second consecutive monthly increase. Overall, supply decreased in Canada as testified by the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) decreasing from 3.3 to 3.1 in May. This remains up from the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical overage in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only Manitoba indicating a ratio above average. Housing starts in Canada decreased in May (-58.9K to 202.5K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), falling short of consensus expectations calling for a 240.0K print. This decline more than offset Aprils 47.8K increase and was the sharpest since December 2021. In urban areas, declines in housing starts were seen in Ontario (-43.1K to 67.7K), British Columbia (-20.1K to 38.2K), Quebec (-6.6K to 22.5K) and the Maritimes (-1.5K to 8.1K). Meanwhile, an increase was registered in the Prairies (+12.6K to 46.0K) on gains in Manitoba (+3.0K to 7.0K) and Alberta (+9.6K to 36.5K) while starts in Saskatchewan (+0.1K to 2.5K) remained essentially unchanged. The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index rose by 0.6% in May after seasonal adjustment. After seasonal adjustment, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month: Toronto (+1.6%), Winnipeg (+1.5%), Victoria (+1.3%), Edmonton (+1.3%). Quebec City (+1.2%), Montreal (+1.0%), Hamilton (+0.5%) and Calgary (+0.1%). Conversely, prices fell during the month in Halifax (-2.6%). Vancouver (-1.2%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.3%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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CMHC Residential Mortgage Industry Report

6/14/2023

Recent mortgage market trends High inflation, rapidly rising interest rates and cooling housing markets across Canada have resulted in decelerating mortgage growth in 2022. Mortgage activity by non-bank lenders accelerated up until 2022Q3 and has now reached the pace of mortgage growth in the banking industry. Despite increasing worries around the ability of Canadians to make their mortgage payments on time, mortgages in arrears remained at low levels. Mortgage borrowers are opting for shorter-term fixed rate mortgages, with fixed-rate 5-year mortgages falling to less than 15% of new mortgages, and variable-rate mortgages dropping to less than 20% of new mortgages. Housing finance research at a glance While demand surges, alternative lenders are lending more conservatively as the industry faces shifting investor appetite. Their risk profile remains at relatively low levels. A larger share of alternative loan mortgage borrowers are renewing their loans in this space as it is increasingly difficult to qualify for a conventional loan. Interest rate differences are not a significant source of inequality in the housing finance system. CMHC

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Bank of Canada raises policy rate 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening

6/8/2023

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4%, with the Bank Rate at 5% and the deposit rate at 4%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Globally, consumer price inflation is coming down, largely reflecting lower energy prices compared to a year ago, but underlying inflation remains stubbornly high. While economic growth around the world is softening in the face of higher interest rates, major central banks are signalling that interest rates may have to rise further to restore price stability. In the United States, the economy is slowing, although consumer spending remains surprisingly resilient and the labour market is still tight. Economic growth has essentially stalled in Europe but upward pressure on core prices is persisting. Growth in China is expected to slow after surging in the first quarter. Financial conditions have tightened back to those seen before the bank failures in the United States and Switzerland. Canadas economy was stronger than expected in the first quarter of 2023, with GDP growth of 3.1%. Consumption growth was surprisingly strong and broad-based, even after accounting for the boost from population gains. Demand for services continued to rebound. In addition, spending on interest-sensitive goods increased and, more recently, housing market activity has picked up. The labour market remains tight: higher immigration and participation rates are expanding the supply of workers but new workers have been quickly hired, reflecting continued strong demand for labour. Overall, excess demand in the economy looks to be more persistent than anticipated. CPI inflation ticked up in April to 4.4%, the first increase in 10 months, with prices for a broad range of goods and services coming in higher than expected. Goods price inflation increased, despite lower energy costs. Services price inflation remained elevated, reflecting strong demand and a tight labour market. The Bank continues to expect CPI inflation to ease to around 3% in the summer, as lower energy prices feed through and last years large price gains fall out of the yearly data. However, with three-month measures of core inflation running in the 3-4% range for several months and excess demand persisting, concerns have increased that CPI inflation could get stuck materially above the 2% target. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/06/fad-press-release-2023-06-07/

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Housing affordability: Starting 2023 on a positive note

6/2/2023

From National Bank of Canada Housing affordability in Canada in the first quarter of 2023 posted a second consecutive improvement. It marked the largest betterment in affordability in nearly 4 years as all markets covered saw a net amelioration (which was a first since 2020Q3). Nonetheless, the reversal of the worsening which occurred in the last two quarters was tepid compared to the slide that has occurred during the post-pandemic period. Indeed, after having reached its most unaffordable level in over 30 years, the mortgage payment as a percentage of income (MPPI) registered at a still elevated 60.9% in 2023Q1, down 5.4 points from the recent high mark. Feeding into the improvement, home prices declined for a third consecutive quarter. The retracement in home prices has now reached -7.3%, the biggest drawdown in a generation due to the restrictiveness in interest rates. The correction in prices was the sharpest in Vancouver, Hamilton and Toronto which translated into the biggest improvements in affordability during the quarter. Still, mortgage interest rates appear to be tapering out. In this latest report, our 5-year benchmark mortgage rate used to calculate affordability declined by 14bps, which helped contribute to the moderation. In addition, we note that still rising incomes also contributed to the enhancement. Looking ahead, for the second quarter of 2023, we expect a slight easing of pressure on the interest rate side. That said, a stabilization in home prices is likely given the pickup in activity with sales increasing while listings have moderated. However, we have doubts as to whether this price rise will be sustained, given restrictive monetary policy which is contributing to maintaining affordability at a challenging level. HIGHLIGHTS: Canadian housing affordability posted the largest improvement in 15 quarters in Q1`23. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) declined 3.2 points, a consecutive pullback following the 2.2-point decrease in Q422. Seasonally adjusted home prices decreased 2.4% in Q123 from Q422; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) fell 14 bps, while median household income rose 1.3%. Affordability improved in all ten markets covered in Q1. On a sliding scale of markets from best improvement to deterioration: Vancouver, Hamilton, Toronto, Victoria, Montreal, Winnipeg, Ottawa-Gatineau, Calgary, Edmonton, and Quebec. This was the first time in 10 quarters that all markets improved. Countrywide, affordability improved 1.8 pp in the condo portion vs. a 3.8 pp improvement in the non-condo segment. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

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Home sales jumped in April as interest rates stabilized and population boomed

5/26/2023

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 11.3% from March to April, a third consecutive monthly increase and the first double-digit gain since the summer of 2020. Unlike the previous month, the increase in sales was spread across all provinces, with New Brunswick (-2.5%) and Newfoundland (-17.0%) being the exceptions. On the supply side, new listings increased by 1.6% during the month, a first increase in three months. Overall, supply decreased in Canada as testified by the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) decreasing from 3.8 to 3.3 in April. This remains up from the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical overage in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only Manitoba indicating a ratio above average. Housing starts in Canada increased in April (+47.8K to 261.6K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), more than consensus expectations calling for a 220.0K print. This increase more than offset Marchs 27.7K decline and was the sharpest since November 2021. In urban areas, rises in housing starts were seen in Ontario (+35.8K to 110.7K), British Columbia (+9.9K to 58.1K), the Maritimes (+4.0K to 9.8K) and Quebec (+2.3K to 29.4K). Meanwhile, a decline was registered in the Prairies (-2.8K to 33.2K) on losses in Manitoba (-3.5K to 4.0K) and Saskatchewan {-0.3K to 2.4K) while starts in Alberta posted an increase (+1.1K to 26.8K). The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index remained relatively stable in April with a slight decrease of 0.1% compared with the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects. After seasonal adjustment, 5 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Edmonton (-2.5%). Ottawa-Gatineau (-2.1%), Vancouver (-0.9%), Hamilton (-0.5%) and Montreal (-0.2%). Conversely, prices increased during the month in Quebec City (+1.2%), Toronto (+0.7%), Winnipeg (+0.5%), Calgary (+0.3%) and Victoria (+0.1%), while they remained stable in Halifax. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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CMHC Housing Market Outlook - Spring 2023

5/18/2023

From CMHC Key highlights from the 2023 release We expect house prices and supply in Canada to decrease between 2022 2023. Price declines are expected to end sometime in 2023 before increasing for the remainder of the forecast period. Our analysis forecasts a significant drop in housing starts in 2023 and we can see some recovery starting in 2023 to 2024 and onward. Rental affordability is also set to decline due to demand outstripping supply, especially in Vancouver and Toronto. Prairie provinces expect more positive housing market conditions due to interprovincial migration and affordable homeownership. Ontario, British Columbia and Qubec will see significant drops in housing starts compared to other regions. The Atlantic regions economy remains stable and moderate relative to other regions. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-market-outlook/2023/housing-market-outlook-spring-2023-en.pdf?rev=5c29bc91-2310-435f-b2c9-b801866d0ede

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CMHC Housing Supply Report

5/10/2023

Highlights from the April 2023 Housing Supply Report: Growth in residential construction was mixed across Canadas 6 largest census metropolitan areas in 2022. Current new home inventories are at historic lows even though housing starts were strong during the pandemic. Housing starts increased in Toronto, Calgary, Edmonton and Ottawa. Starts were stable in Vancouver and decreased in Montral. New research completed by the University of British Columbia using CMHC data shows that most housing starts were built in low-amenity neighbourhoods. Apartments, however, tend to be in high-amenity areas . As interest rates increased, homebuyer purchasing power dropped. Prices decreased slightly in most markets. Apartment construction both purpose-built rental and condominiums continued to grow. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-supply-report/housing-supply-report-2023-04-en.pdf?rev=5558faea-840d-4a27-a9a3-c49e421abd1a

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Canada: Record annual price decline in March

5/5/2023

From National Bank of Canada Even though the resale housing market is showing its first signs of stabilization and the non-seasonally adjusted Teranet-National Bank Index has seen its first monthly increase in ten months, it is still too early to say that the real estate market in Canada is on the rise. In fact, once adjusted for seasonal effects, the composite index contracted by 0.8% during the month, as price growth is generally stronger in the spring with the start of the high season. It should also be noted that, on an annual basis, the index in March fell by 6.9% compared to March 2022 and thus equaled the record contraction recorded during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. With the Bank of Canada expected to keep its policy rate in restrictive territory for much of 2023 and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we anticipate that the price correction that currently stands at 8.8% could continue through the end of 2023 (-5% additional), but this assumes that policy rate hikes are over, and declines begin at the end of the year. Although corrections are observed in all markets covered by the index (except Sherbrooke), the CMAs that have experienced the largest price growth over the past two years are also those that have recorded the sharpest declines to date. Ontario and British Columbia thus appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less so, as affordability problems are less acute. HIGHLIGHTS: The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased 0.8% in March compared with the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects, the ninth consecutive monthly decline. After seasonal adjustment, 7 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Victoria (-4.5%), Winnipeg (-2.4%), Toronto (-1.9%), Edmonton (-0.9%), Hamilton (-0 .1%) Conversely, prices increased during the month in Halifax (+2.3%), Montreal (+0.5%), Vancouver (+0.3%) and Calgary (+0.1%). From March 2022 to March 2023, the composite index decreased by 6.9%, matching the record annual decline observed during the 2008-2009 financial crisis. Price growth in Calgary (7.6%), Quebec City (4.1%) and Edmonton (2.2%) was more than offset by declines in Montreal (-0.8%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-4.7%), Halifax (-4.9%), Vancouver (-5.0%), Winnipeg (-6.3%), Victoria (-8.7%), Toronto (-12.1%) and Hamilton (-13.5%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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Slight increase in sales for a second consecutive month

4/28/2023

From National Bank of Canada Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 1.4% from February to March, the first time since February 2022 that they experienced two consecutive monthly increases. Unlike the previous month, the increase in sales was not spread across all provinces. On the supply side, new listings dropped by 5.8% in the month, a seventh decrease in nine months. Still, we continue to see that there is a high proportion of sellers who are changing their minds, as we estimate that 19% of listings have been withdrawn in the last three months. Overall, supply decreased in Canada as testified by the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) decreasing from 4.1 to 4.9 in March. This remains up from the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical average in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only Manitoba indicating a ratio above average. Housing starts in Canada decreased in March (-27.1K to 213.9K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), which was below consensus expectations calling for a 237.5K print. This drop almost fully erased Februarys 27.9K gain. In urban areas, decreases in housing starts were seen in Ontario (-20.7K to 75.4K), the Prairies (-8.0K to 35.9K), Quebec (-11.8K to 27.0K) and the Maritimes (-0.3K to 6.3K). Starts in BC (+13.6K to 48.0K), meanwhile, increased after reaching their lowest level since March 2022 in February, thanks to a gain in multiples (+14.1K to 43.2K) while single units starts were essentially steady (-0.5K to 4.8K). The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased 0.8% in March compared with the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects, the ninth consecutive monthly decline. After seasonal adjustment, 7 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Victoria (-4.5%), Winnipeg (-2.4%), Toronto (-1.9%), Edmonton (-0.9%), Hamilton (-0.1%) Conversely, prices increased during the month in Halifax (+2.3%), Montreal (+0.5%), Vancouver (+0.3%) and Calgary (+0.1%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Canada: Slight increase in sales for a second consecutive month

4/19/2023

From National Bank of Canada On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 1.4% from February to March, the first time since February 2022 that they experienced two consecutive monthly increases. Unlike the previous month, the increase in sales was not spread across all provinces. In fact, this growth is largely explained by a notable jump of 10.0% in sales in B.C. and to a lesser extent by increases in Manitoba (1.2%), Ontario (1.1%) and Quebec (0.8%). Despite signs of stabilization, the level of sales in Canada remains very low on a historical basis and has declined by 39.5% since the start of the monetary tightening. As we expect the Bank of Canada to keep its policy rate at its current restrictive level for most of 2023, the outlook for a recovery in the housing market remains limited. As a result, sales are expected to remain below their historical average in the coming months and it is still too early to interpret recent increases in sales as a rebound in the housing Market. On the supply side, new listings dropped by 5.8% in the month, a seventh decrease in nine months. Still, we continue to see that there is a high proportion of sellers who are changing their minds, as we estimate that 19% of listings have been withdrawn in the last three months. Overall, supply decreased in Canada as testified by the number of months of inventory (active-listings to sales) decreasing from 4.1 to 4.9 in March. This remains up from the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. As a result, the active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical average in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only Manitoba indicating a ratio above average. On a year-over-year basis, home sales were down 34.4% compared to the second-strongest month of March in history last year. Sales were down in every province on a year-over-year basis, with the largest decline observed in Alberta (-41.3%) and the smallest in Saskatchewan (-20.2%). For the first quarter of 2023, cumulative sales were down 37.0% compared to the same period last year. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-canada.pdf

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

4/12/2023

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 4%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 4%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Inflation in many countries is easing in the face of lower energy prices, normalizing global supply chains, and tighter monetary policy. At the same time, labour markets remain tight and measures of core inflation in many advanced economies suggest persistent price pressures, especially for services. Global economic growth has been stronger than anticipated. Growth in the United States and Europe has surprised on the upside, but is expected to weaken as tighter monetary policy continues to feed through those economies. In the United States, recent stress in the banking sector has tightened credit conditions further. US growth is expected to slow considerably in the coming months, with particular weakness in sectors that are important for Canadian exports. Meanwhile, activity in Chinas economy has rebounded, particularly in services. Overall, commodity prices are close to their January levels. The Banks April Monetary Policy Report (MPR) projects global growth of 2.6% this year, 2.1% in 2024, and 2.8% in 2025. In Canada, demand is still exceeding supply and the labour market remains tight. Economic growth in the first quarter looks to be stronger than was projected in January, with a bounce in exports and solid consumption growth. While the Banks Business Outlook Survey suggests acute labour shortages are starting to ease, wage growth is still elevated relative to productivity growth. Strong population gains are adding to labour supply and supporting employment growth while also boosting aggregate consumption. Housing market activity remains subdued. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/04/fad-press-release-2023-04-12/?fbclid=IwAR0a-4yHJVIhZA_NbWespXWZn49Q7XwhCTvrCV92O8ATLiiGCG0Rwi0K6Vg

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Canadian home sales rise in February despite drop in new supply

4/5/2023

Statistics released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales were up on a month-over-month basis in February 2023. Highlights: National home sales rose 2.3% month-over-month in February. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 40% below February 2022. The number of newly listed properties dropped 7.9% month-over-month. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 1.1% month-over-month and was down 15.8% year-over-year. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price posted an 18.9% year-over-year decline in February. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems posted a 2.3% increase from January to February 2023. Gains were led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Vancouver. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in February 2023 came in 40% below an incredibly strong month of February in 2022. The February 2023 sales figure was comparable to what was seen for that month in 2018 and 2019. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA

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Home sales up in February, while new listings still down

3/30/2023

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 2.3% from January to February, a third monthly gain in five months. The increase was widespread across provinces, with only Manitoba (-7.9%), Nova Scotia (-0.9%), and Alberta (-0.4%) registering decreases. On the supply side, new listings dropped by 7.9% in the month, a sixth decrease in eight months. Still, we continue to see that there is a high proportion of sellers who are changing their minds, as we estimate that about one in five listings have been withdrawned in the last three months. Overall, supply decreased slightly in Canada as testified by the number of months of inventory (active listings to sales) decreasing from 4.2 to 4.1 in February. This remains up from the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. The active-listings to sales ratio is still tighter than its historical average in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only B.C. and Manitoba indicating a ratio above average. Housing starts in Canada increased in February (+27.4K to 244.0K, seasonally adjusted and annualized), which was above consensus expectations calling for a 220K print. This jump almost fully erased Januarys 32.4K pullback. In urban areas, increases in housing starts were seen in Ontario (+26.4K to 98.4K), the Prairies (+10.5K to 43.8K), Quebec (+5.1K to 40.4K) and the Maritimes (+0.8K to 5.8K). Starts in BC (-12.8K to 33.7K), meanwhile, declined to their lowest level since March 2022 on a weakness in multiples (-12.3K to 28.4K) while single units starts were essentially steady (-0.5K to 5.3K). The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.5% in February compared to the previous month and after seasonal adjustment, the tenth consecutive monthly decrease. After seasonal adjustment, 7 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Toronto (-2.7%), Calgary (-2.4%), Halifax (-1.8%), Edmonton (-0.8%), Hamilton (-0.3%), Montreal (-0.3%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.2%). Conversely, prices increased in Vancouver (+3.8%), Victoria (+1.9%) and Quebec City (+0.1%). while they remained stable in Winnipeg. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Canada: Prices still down in February

3/20/2023

From National Bank of Canada The Teranet-National Bank Index continued to decline in February so that the cumulative decline in prices since their peak in May 2022 totaled 11.2%, the largest contraction in the index ever recorded. The current decline in prices has even surpassed the 9.2% loss in value that occurred during the 2008 financial crisis. With the Bank of Canada expected to keep its policy rate in restrictive territory well into 2023 and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we still anticipate a total correction of about 15% nationally by the end of 2023, but this assumes that policy rate hikes are over and declines begin at year-end. Although corrections are being seen in all markets covered by the index, the CMAs that have seen the largest price growth over the past two years are also those that have seen the largest declines to date. Ontario, British Columbia and the Maritimes thus appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less vulnerable, as affordability issues are less acute. HIGHLIGHTS: The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.5% in February compared to the previous month and after seasonal adjustment, the tenth consecutive monthly decrease. After seasonal adjustment, 7 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Toronto (-2.7%), Calgary (-2.4%), Halifax (-1.8%). Edmonton (-0.8%), Hamilton (-0.3%), Montreal (-0.3%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (-0.2%). Conversely, prices increased in Vancouver (+3.8%), Victoria (+1.9%) and Quebec City (+0.1%), while they remained stable in Winnipeg. From February 2022 to February 2023, the composite index decreased by 4.7%, the second consecutive month in which the annual change in the index was in negative territory. Price increases in Calgary (8.8%), Quebec (5.0%). Edmonton (1.9%) and Montreal (0.8%) were entirely offset by decreases in Victoria (-1.4%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-2.3%), Winnipeg (-2.7%), Halifax (-3.2%), Vancouver (-3.9%), Toronto (-8.8%), and Hamilton (-14.0%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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Housing affordability: First improvement in over 2 years

3/14/2023

For the first time in 9 quarters, housing affordability improved in Canada. Not only was it the largest improvement in over 3 years, but it also ended the longest sequence of declining home affordability since the 1986-89 episode. Still, that is not to say that the median home is now affordable in Canada as the mortgage payment as a percentage of income (MPPI) registered at 64.6%, the second highest level since 1981. Feeding into the refinement, home prices declined for a second consecutive quarter and did so at the fastest pace since 1990. Although our 5-year benchmark mortgage rate used to calculate affordability rose by 17 bps in the fourth quarter, that was more than compensated for by falling prices and still rising incomes. The slight rise in rates nonetheless brought the benchmark rate to its highest level since 2008. Preliminary data for the first quarter of 2023 as well as our outlook for monetary policy in Canada suggest that we may be peaking in terms of mortgage interest rates. The current level for interest rates is restrictive and signals that home price declines are not over yet. Moreover, incoming data for the first quarter of 2023 confirms that prices have weakened while resale market data from CREA indicates that sales have significantly declined with listings concurrently increasing. Given our view for further declines in home price and decreasing mortgage rates, we expect affordability to improve in the coming quarters. HIGHLIGHTS: Canadian housing affordability improved for the first time in 9 quarters in Q422. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) declined 2.1 points, a pullback from the 4.0-point increase in Q322. Seasonally adjusted home prices decreased 3.9% in Q422 from Q322; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) rose 17 bps, while median household income rose 1.0%. Affordability improved in 8 of the ten markets covered in Q4. On a sliding scale of markets from best improvement to deterioration: Victoria, Hamilton, Toronto, Vancouver, Ottawa-Gatineau, Montreal, Winnipeg, Quebec, Edmonton, Calgary. This was the first time in 9 quarters that a majority of markets improved. Countrywide, affordability improved 0.6 pp in the condo portion vs. a 2.9 pp improvement in the non-condo segment. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues quantitative tightening

3/8/2023

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 4%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 4%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Global economic developments have evolved broadly in line with the outlook in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Global growth continues to slow, and inflation, while still too high, is coming down due primarily to lower energy prices. In the United States and Europe, near-term outlooks for growth and inflation are both somewhat higher than expected in January. In particular, labour markets remain tight, and elevated core inflation is persisting. Growth in China is rebounding in the first quarter. Commodity prices have evolved roughly in line with the Banks expectations, but the strength of Chinas recovery and the impact of Russias war in Ukraine remain key sources of upside risk. Financial conditions have tightened since January, and the US dollar has strengthened. In Canada, economic growth came in flat in the fourth quarter of 2022, lower than the Bank projected. With consumption, government spending and net exports all increasing, the weaker-than-expected GDP was largely because of a sizeable slowdown in inventory investment. Restrictive monetary policy continues to weigh on household spending, and business investment has weakened alongside slowing domestic and foreign demand. The labour market remains very tight. Employment growth has been surprisingly strong, the unemployment rate remains near historic lows, and job vacancies are elevated. Wages continue to grow at 4% to 5%, while productivity has declined in recent quarters. Inflation eased to 5.9% in January, reflecting lower price increases for energy, durable goods and some services. Price increases for food and shelter remain high, causing continued hardship for Canadians. With weak economic growth for the next couple of quarters, pressures in product and labour markets are expected to ease. This should moderate wage growth and also increase competitive pressures, making it more difficult for businesses to pass on higher costs to consumers. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/03/fad-press-release-2023-03-08/?fbclid=IwAR2176FL0YpgrqcA-0CAxpkw1SEwR7InkZY3Pb1NZxGjS9tc70Bw6ARkj-Q

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Home sales continue their downward trend in January

3/1/2023

On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales decreased 3.0% from December to January, a second monthly decline in three months. As a result, sales slipped to their lowest level since August 2010 (excluding the pandemic). As the Bank of Canada raised its policy rate in January and is expected to keep monetary conditions restrictive for most of 2023, the resale market could experience further declines in the months ahead and remain at a level of activity well below its historical overage. Adding to the weakness of the report, the decrease in sales was widespread across provinces, with only Ontario (+0.4%) and PEI (+6.0%) registering increases. On the supply side, new listings were up 3.3% in the month, a first increase in three months and the fastest one since February 2022. Still, we continue to see that there is a high proportion of sellers who are changing their minds, as we estimate that about one in five listings are withdrawn during the month. Despite this, the increase in listings combined to the low level of sales is allowing supply to rise in Canada as testified by the number of months of inventory increasing from 4.1 to 4.3 in January. This is up from the trough of 1.7 reached in the pandemic but remains low on a historical basis. As a result, the active-listing to sales ratio is easing but is still tighter than its historical average in the majority of Canadian provinces, with only B.C. and Manitoba indicating a ratio above average. On a year-over-year basis, home sales were down 39.4% compared to the second-strongest month of January in history last year. Sales were down in every province on a year-over- year basis, with the largest decline observed in B.C. (-49.0%) and the smallest in Newfoundland (-13.5%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-canada.pdf

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Canadian home sales begin 2023 at 14-year low

2/24/2023

Statistics released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales were down on a monthover-month basis in January 2023. Highlights: National home sales declined 3% month-over-month in January. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 37.1% below January 2022. The number of newly listed properties rose 3.3% month-over-month. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 1.9% month-over-month and was down 12.6% year-over-year. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price posted an 18.3% decline year-over-year in January. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

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CMHC Rental Market Report

2/14/2023

Growth in demand outpaced strong growth in supply, pushing the vacancy rate for purpose-built rental apartments down from 3.1% to 1.9%. This was the vacancy rates lowest level since 2001. Rent growth, for its part, reached a new high. Rental demand surged across the country. This was a reflection of higher net migration and the return of students to on-campus learning. Another factor was higher mortgage rates, which drove up already-elevated costs of homeownership. Despite higher overall supply, the share of rental units that are affordable for the lowest-income renters is, in most markets, in the low single digits or too low to report. This is especially true in Ontario and British Columbia (B.C.). New data: Average rent growth for 2-bedroom units that turned over to a new tenant was well above average rent growth for units without turnover (18.2% vs. 2.8%). This increased affordability challenges. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/rental-market-report/rental-market-report-2022-en.pdf?rev=2a0ed640-6c4c-435d-b13a-0faca94c0667

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Historic loss of value in the residential market

2/1/2023

From National Bank of Canada The Teranet-National Bank HPI continued to decline in December so that the cumulative drop in prices since their peak in May 2022 totaled 10.0%, the largest contraction in the index ever recorded. The current decline in prices has even surpassed the 9.2% loss in value that occurred during the 2008 financial crisis. However, there is some consolation in that the seasonally adjusted monthly decrease in prices in December was less significant than in November, going from -1.0% to -0.3%. With the Bank of Canada raising its key interest rate again in December and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we still expect the total correction to be limited to about 15% nationally by the end of 2023, but this assumes that policy rate hikes are coming to an end and that declines occur in the second half of 2023. Although corrections are occurring in all markets covered by the index (except Lethbridge), the CMAs that have experienced the largest price growth over the past two years are also the ones that have experienced the largest declines to date. Ontario, British Columbia and the Maritimes therefore appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less so, helped by a buoyant economic environment. HIGHLIGHTS: The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.3% in December compared to the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects, the sixth consecutive monthly decrease. After adjusting for seasonal effects, 6 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Winnipeg (-1.8%), Calgary (-1.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.1%), Edmonton (-0.9%), Montreal (-0.5%) and Toronto (-0.4%). Conversely, the Quebec City (+1.3%), Victoria (+1.1%), Hamilton (+0.8%), Halifax (+0.4%) and Vancouver (+0.1%) markets were up. From December 2021 to December 2022, the composite index remained stable, the first time since the financial crisis of 2008-09 that the index did not increase over one year. Price increases in Calgary (12.4%), Edmonton (6.3%), Halifax (4.7%), Quebec City (4.7%} and Montreal (2.5%) were entirely offset by decreases in Victoria (-0.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.0%), Vancouver (-1.5%), Toronto (-1.9%), Winnipeg (-2.0%) and Hamilton (-2.9%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 25 basis points, continues quantitative tightening

1/25/2023

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 4%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Global inflation remains high and broad-based. Inflation is coming down in many countries, largely reflecting lower energy prices as well as improvements in global supply chains. In the United States and Europe, economies are slowing but proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the Banks October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Chinas abrupt lifting of COVID-19 restrictions has prompted an upward revision to the growth forecast for China and poses an upside risk to commodity prices. Russias war on Ukraine remains a significant source of uncertainty. Financial conditions remain restrictive but have eased since October, and the Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar. The Bank estimates the global economy grew by about 3% in 2022, and will slow to about 2% in 2023 and 2% in 2024. This projection is slightly higher than Octobers. In Canada, recent economic growth has been stronger than expected and the economy remains in excess demand. Labour markets are still tight: the unemployment rate is near historic lows and businesses are reporting ongoing difficulty finding workers. However, there is growing evidence that restrictive monetary policy is slowing activity, especially household spending. Consumption growth has moderated from the first half of 2022 and housing market activity has declined substantially. As the effects of interest rate increases continue to work through the economy, spending on consumer services and business investment are expected to slow. Meanwhile, weaker foreign demand will likely weigh on exports. This overall slowdown in activity will allow supply to catch up with demand. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2023/01/fad-press-release-2023-01-25/

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Slight increase in home sales in December

1/20/2023

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 1.3% from November to December, a second monthly gain in ten months. Despite this relative stabilization of the market in December, sales were still down 37.8% from their February 2022 level. New listings were down 6.4% from November to December, a fifth contraction in six months which shows that both buyers and sellers remain on the sidelines in the current market environment. It should also be noted there is still a high proportion of sellers who are changing their minds, as we estimate that about one in five listings are withdrawn during the month. The low level of sales is still allowing supply to rebuild, with the number of months of inventory increasing from 4.1 to 4.2 in December. While easing, market conditions are still pointing in the direction of a favourable to sellers market with supply still very low on a historical basis. Housing starts fell 14.4K in December to a 9-month low of 248.6K (seasonally adjusted and annualized). Urban starts dropped 12.9K to 227.7K on declines in both the single-family (-5.5K to a post-pandemic low of 44.9K) and the multi-family segment (-7.4K to 182.9K). The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.3% in December compared to the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects, the sixth consecutive monthly decrease. After adjusting for seasonal effects, 6 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Winnipeg (-1.8%), Calgary (-1.1%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.1%), Edmonton (-0.9%). Montreal (-0.5%) and Toronto (-0.4%). Conversely, the Quebec City (+1.3%), Victoria (+1.1%). Hamilton (+0.8%), Halifax (+0.4%) and Vancouver (+0.1%) markets were up. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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What’s Happening in Canadian Housing Markets as We Head into 2023?

1/11/2023

Sales in November were down 3.3% on a month-over-month basis, rejoining the trend of moderating sales that began back in February. The Aggregate Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) edged down 1.4% on a month-over-month basis in November, which, as with sales activity, continues the trend that began in the spring. The national MLS HPI now sits about 11.5% below its peak level but there are considerable regional differences. While prices are down more in Ontario and parts of British Columbia, they have softened to some degree almost everywhere. Calgary, Regina and Saskatoon stand out as markets where home prices are barely off their peaks. https://www.creacafe.ca/whats-happening-in-canadian-housing-markets-as-we-head-into-2023/

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Canada: Prices down from their peak across the country

1/5/2023

From National Bank of Canada For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, all of the cities covered by the Teranet-National Bank HPI have seen prices decline from their peak reached over the past 12 months, marking the end of a prosperous period for the Canadian real estate market. Indeed, price declines were observed in all markets covered, with the last cities on the list to experience contractions being Calgary, Edmonton, Lethbridge and Trois-Rivieres. Since its peak in May 2022, the national composite index has already fallen by 9.0%, almost as much as during the last financial crisis (-9.2%). With the Bank of Canada raising its key interest rate again in December and mortgage rates remaining high, we believe that the impact on property prices should continue to be felt in the coming months. All in all, we still anticipate a total correction of about 15% in house prices nationally by the end of 2023, assuming that the policy rate does not increase further and begins to decline in the second half of 2023. Although corrections are being observed in the vast majority of markets covered by the index, the CMAs that have experienced the most significant price growth over the past two years are also those that have recorded the sharpest declines to date. Ontario, British Columbia, and the Maritimes therefore appear to be more vulnerable, while the Prairie markets are less so, helped by a buoyant economic context. HIGHLIGHTS: The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 1.1% in November compared to the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects, a fifth consecutive monthly decrease. After adjusting for seasonal effects, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Montreal (-2.2%), Hamilton (-1.9%), Vancouver (-1.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.3%), Winnipeg (-1.1%), Quebec City (-1.1%), Toronto (-0.9%) and Calgary (-0.8%). Conversely, the Halifax (+1.6%), Victoria (+0.9%) and Edmonton (+0.3%) markets were up. From November 2021 to November 2022, the composite index increased by 2.0%, the lowest annual growth since November 2019. This growth was driven by Calgary (14.6%), Edmonton (7.6%), Halifax (6.2%), Quebec City (5.7%), Montreal (4.7%) and Victoria (3.0%). Growth was lower than average in Winnipeg (1.2%), Vancouver (0.7%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.4%), while it remained stable in Toronto and was down in Hamilton (-0.9%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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The housing market resumed its downward trend in November

12/28/2022

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales decreased 3.3% from October to November, an eighth monthly decline in nine months. After recording a gain in October, the real estate market has resumed its downward trend of recent months, accumulating a decline in sales of 38.8% since their February level. New listing were down 1.3% from October to November, a fourth contraction in five months which shows that both buyers and sellers remain on the sidelines in the current market environment. It should also be noted that a very high proportion of sellers are changing their minds, while we estimate that about one in five listings are withdrawn during the month. The level of sales is still allowing supply to rebuild, with the number of months of inventory increasing from 3.9 to 4.2 in November. While easing, market conditions are still pointing in the direction of a favourable to sellers market with supply still very low on a historical basis. Housing starts were essentially steady in November at a level way above historical trends (-0.4K to 264.2K, seasonally adjusted and annualized). This was better than consensus expectations calling for a decline. That said, the prior months result was revised downwards from 267.1 to 264.6K. The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price lndexTM decreased by 1.1% in November compared to the previous month and after adjusting for seasonal effects, a fifth consecutive monthly decrease. After adjusting for seasonal effects, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Montreal (-2.2%), Hamilton (-1.9%), Vancouver (-1.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.3%), Winnipeg (-1.1%), Quebec City (-1.1%), Toronto (-0.9%) and Calgary (-0.8%). Conversely, the Halifax (+l.6%), Victoria (+0.9%) and Edmonton (+0.3%) markets were up. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Residential Mortgage Industry Report - Fall 2022 Edition

12/15/2022

From CMHC In this Fall 2022 edition, we find the following: Recent mortgage market trends Mortgage growth slowed down as interest rates hiked in the second quarter of 2022. Mortgage consumers are increasingly turning back to fixed rates as interest rates rapidly increase and the discount on variable interest rates vanishes. Declining ratios of mortgage loan approvals to applications show it is increasingly difficult for potential borrowers to get qualified for loans subject to the stress test. The share of mortgages in arrears (i.e. delinquent for 90 days or more) have continued to trend downwards across all types of lenders. Housing Finance Research at-a-glance In the third quarter of 2022, consumers without a mortgage registered notable delinquency rate increases in auto loans and credit cards. Mortgage lending growth by alternative lenders outpaces conventional lenders. Their portfolio metrics indicate a decreasing risk profile. Mortgage borrowers in the alternative lending space are more likely to renew their loans as it becomes harder to qualify with traditional lenders. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/housing-finance/residential-mortgage-industry-report/2022/residential-mortgage-industry-report-fall-2022-en.pdf?rev=239fc8ea-a885-430f-97fe-dd700161d872

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Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, continues quantitative tightening

12/7/2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 4%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 4%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based. Global economic growth is slowing, although it is proving more resilient than was expected at the time of the October Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In the United States, the economy is weakening but consumption continues to be solid and the labour market remains overheated. The gradual easing of global supply bottlenecks continues, although further progress could be disrupted by geopolitical events. In Canada, GDP growth in the third quarter was stronger than expected, and the economy continued to operate in excess demand. Canadas labour market remains tight, with unemployment near historic lows. While commodity exports have been strong, there is growing evidence that tighter monetary policy is restraining domestic demand: consumption moderated in the third quarter, and housing market activity continues to decline. Overall, the data since the October MPR support the Banks outlook that growth will essentially stall through the end of this year and the first half of next year. CPI inflation remained at 6.9% in October, with many of the goods and services Canadians regularly buy showing large price increases. Measures of core inflation remain around 5%. Three-month rates of change in core inflation have come down, an early indicator that price pressures may be losing momentum. However, inflation is still too high and short-term inflation expectations remain elevated. The longer that consumers and businesses expect inflation to be above the target, the greater the risk that elevated inflation becomes entrenched. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/12/fad-press-release-2022-12-07/

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Housing affordability: Back to the 1980s!

12/2/2022

From National Bank of Canada We remain in the midst of the longest sequence of declining home affordability since the 1986-1989 episode (11 quarters). The magnitude of the deterioration, however, is much more pronounced this time (25.5 p.p. vs. 20.2 p.p. in the 1980s). As a result, the mortgage ona representative home in Canada now takes 67.3% of income to service, the most since 1981. A first since the second quarter of 2019 is the downturn in housing prices that has mitigated slightly the impact on affordability of still rising mortgage rates. Our 5-year benchmark mortgage rate used to calculate our affordability metrics rose 75 bps in the third quarter of the year. While this surge was less significant than the one observed in the previous quarter, it propelled the benchmark mortgage rate to its highest level since 2010. To give an idea of scale, all else being equal, a 75-bps increase represents an extra 300$ (or an 8.1% increase) on the monthly mortgage payment for a representative home in Canada. With our affordability indexes at extreme levels in most markets, we see further declines in housing prices. The slowdown in real estate activity in several markets is expected to result in a cumulative 15% decline in home prices in 2023 from the peak (-7.7% to date). This, combined with a stabilization of the benchmark 5-year mortgage rate, should improve affordability in the coming quarters. HIGHLIGHTS: Canadian housing affordability deteriorated for a seventh consecutive quarter in Q322. The mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of income (MPPI) rose 3.8 points, a deceleration from the 10.2-point increase in Q222. Seasonally adjusted home prices decreased 1.1% in Q322 from Q222; the benchmark mortgage rate (5-year term) rose 75 bps, while median household income rose 0.9%. Affordability deteriorated in all the ten markets covered in Q3. On a sliding scale of markets from worst deterioration to least: Vancouver, Victoria, Calgary, Montreal, Toronto, Quebec, Edmonton, Ottawa-Gatineau, Hamilton, Winnipeg. This was the seventh consecutive quarter with a worsening in all markets. Countrywide, affordability deteriorated 2.7 pp in the condo portion vs. a 4.8 pp deterioration in the non-condo segment. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/taux-analyses/analyse-eco/logement/housing-affordability.pdf

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The housing market has stabilized in October

11/24/2022

Summary On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales increased 1.3% from September to October, the first monthly gains in eight months. Despite this growth in sales, this should not be seen as the beginning of an upward trend, but more like a stabilization of the market, with sales now 35.6% below their February level. This is the first time in four months that new listings are up with an increase of 2.2% from September to October. Despite the increase in soles, the increase in new listings allowed supply to accumulate, resulting in the number of months of inventory increasing from 3.7 to 3.8 in October. We are not yet seeing a large influx of sellers at this time, so supply is still very low on a historical basis and market conditions are still pointing in the direction of a favourable to sellers market. This situation is also present in the majority of Canadian provinces, while only B.C. and Manitoba close to indicating a favourable to buyers market. Housing starts declined by 31.8K in October to 267.1K (seasonally adjusted and annualized) after having reached their highest level for 2022 in the prior month while the consensus was calling for a decline to 275K. Storts continued to be well above their long-term average, despite still increasing interest rates. The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 0.8% in October compared to the previous month and after seasonal adjustments. Nine of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Halifax (-4.7%), Hamilton (-2.8%), Winnipeg (-2.4%), Victoria (-2.0%), Quebec City (-1.7%), Toronto (-1.1%), Ottawo-Gotineau (-1.1%), Montreal (-1.0%) and Vancouver (-0.3%). Conversely, the Calgary (+1.8%) and Edmonton (+2.0%) markets were still up. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Canadian home sales edge up from September to October

11/18/2022

Statistics released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales edged a little higher in October 2022. HIGHLIGHTS National home sales were up 1.3% on a month-over-month basis in October. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) monthly activity came in 36% below October 2021. The number of newly listed properties edged up 2.2% month-over-month. The MLS Home Price Index (HPI) declined by 1.2% month-over-month and was down 0.8% year-over-year. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average sale price posted a 9.9% year-over-year decline in October. https://stats.crea.ca/en-CA/

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index - Canada: A second consecutive record decline in September

11/10/2022

From National Bank of Canada In September, the seasonally adjusted composite index fell by 2.0%, matching the previous months record decline and representing a fifth consecutive monthly contraction. Since its peak in May, the composite index (not seasonally adjusted) has already declined by 7.0%, whereas during the 2008 financial crisis, prices fell by only 6.2% over the same period and by 9.2% in total over eight months. In a context where monetary policy will continue to be tightened in the coming months, house prices should continue their contraction and exceed that experienced during the financial crisis of 2008. Indeed, we anticipate a record cumulative decline of about 15% nationally by the end of 2023, assuming a policy rate that tops out around 4.0% and a Bank of Canada that throws some weight behind lowering rates in the second half of 2023. Although corrections are observed in the vast majority of markets covered by the index, the CMAs that have experienced the most significant price growth over the past two years are also those that have experienced the most significant declines to date. As a result, the price correction is expected to be more significant in Ontario, British Columbia and the Maritimes, while it is expected to be less significant in the Prairies, which are favoured by a buoyant economic environment. HIGHLIGHTS: The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index decreased by 2.0% in September compared to the previous month and after seasonal adjustments. After adjusting for seasonal effects, 8 of the 11 markets in the composite index were down during the month: Victoria (-5.9%), Vancouver (-3.5%), Hamilton (-2.1%), Montreal (-1.9%), Toronto (-1.8%), Winnipeg (-1.7%), Ottawa-Gatineau (-1.0%), and Quebec City (-0.1%). Conversely, the Calgary (+1.2%), Halifax (+1.1%) and Edmonton (+0.2%) markets were still up. From September 2021 to September 2022, the composite index increased by 6.0%. This growth was driven by Halifax (16.4%), Calgary (14 .7%) and Montreal (10.5%). Growth was lower than average in Winnipeg (5.9%). Hamilton (5.6%), Edmonton (5.6%), Ottawa-Gatineau (5.0%), Victoria (4.7%), Toronto (4.5%) and Vancouver (3.9%). https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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Canada: Home sales and new listings continued to slide in September

11/4/2022

From National Bank of Canada On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales fell 3.9% from August to September, bringing the level of sales 18.9% below its 10-year average. This was the seventh consecutive decline for this indicator, with sales down a cumulative 36.2% between February and September. Declines were observed in every province and in 60% of all local markets. We expect the current moderation in sales to continue going forward as the Bank of Canada continues to increase its overnight rate in restrictive territory. The rapid rise in interest rates by the central bank is certainly limiting the purchasing capacity of households while also having a psychological effect on some buyers who are waiting to see how high rates will stabilize before taking action. Rising interest rates and the slowdown in the market did not provoke an influx of sellers for the moment. On the contrary, new listings declined 0.8% between August and September, a third monthly drawback in a row. Overall, the number of months of inventory rose from 3.5 to 3.7 months in September, the highest level since May 2020. Based on the active-listings-to-sales ratio, market conditions loosened in the country and are still indicating a balanced market. Six provinces out of 10 are now in balanced territory: B.C., Alberto, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario and P.E.. The others continued to indicate market conditions favourable to sellers mainly due to lack of supply. On a year-over-year basis, home sales were down 32.2% compared to the second-strongest month of September in history last year. Sales were down in every province on a year-over-year basis, with the largest decline observed in B.C. (-45.2%) and the smallest in Saskatchewan (-7.3%). For the first three quarters of 2022, cumulative sales were down 21.9% compared to the same period in 2021. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, continues quantitative tightening

10/27/2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 4% and the deposit rate at 3%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. Inflation around the world remains high and broadly based. This reflects the strength of the global recovery from the pandemic, a series of global supply disruptions, and elevated commodity prices, particularly for energy, which have been pushed up by Russias attack on Ukraine. The strength of the US dollar is adding to inflationary pressures in many countries. Tighter monetary policies aimed at controlling inflation are weighing on economic activity around the world. As economies slow and supply disruptions ease, global inflation is expected to come down. In the United States, labour markets remain very tight even as restrictive financial conditions are slowing economic activity. The Bank projects no growth in the US economy through most of next year. In the euro area, the economy is forecast to contract in the quarters ahead, largely due to acute energy shortages. Chinas economy appears to have picked up after the recent round of pandemic lockdowns, although ongoing challenges related to its property market will continue to weigh on growth. Overall, the Bank projects that global growth will slow from 3% in 2022 to about 1% in 2023, and then pick back up to roughly 2% in 2024. This is a slower pace of growth than was projected in the Banks July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). In Canada, the economy continues to operate in excess demand and labour markets remain tight. The demand for goods and services is still running ahead of the economys ability to supply them, putting upward pressure on domestic inflation. Businesses continue to report widespread labour shortages and, with the full reopening of the economy, strong demand has led to a sharp rise in the price of services. https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2022/10/fad-press-release-2022-10-26/

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CMHL Housing Supply Report - Canadian Metropolitan Areas

10/20/2022

Highlights After a boom recorded last year, housing starts in the countrys six largest census metropolitan areas (CMAs) fell 5% in the first half of 2022. The decrease observed for apartments (-9%) is the main cause of this drop. On an annualized basis, however, housing starts in the first half of 2022 remained high compared to the level of construction over the past five years. Additionally, there was a lot of contrast between the six urban centres studied. Indeed, in the first half of the year, housing starts were up in Edmonton, Calgary and Toronto, while declines were observed in Vancouver, Ottawa and Montral. The effects of rising interest rates and construction costs could have an even greater impact on housing starts in the coming months. New data on physical construction time for housing reveal important differences across centres and dwelling types, which has an impact on the affordability of the end product. Cities that build a lot of large, tall apartment structures will risk having housing construction sectors that are less responsive to a rapid need for new housing units. This is consistent with what is observed in Vancouver and Toronto. Low-rise apartment structures, such as those built in abundance in Montral, take much less time to build than taller apartment structures with a similar number of units. https://assets.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/sites/cmhc/professional/housing-markets-data-and-research/market-reports/housing-supply-report/housing-supply-report-2022-11-en.pdf?rev=74c50e35-d0a7-4131-b6a5-5829967ed5d1

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The road ahead for the economy and housing — fall 2022 update

10/14/2022

Highlights Inflationary pressures have been stronger and more persistent than expected since we published our Housing Market Outlook in April 2022. This has led to significantly sharper than predicted interest rate hikes in Canada and other economies. Interest rates are expected to rise further given the need to reduce inflation. The Canadian economy will enter a modest recession by the end of 2022 and start recovering in the second half of 2023. The national house price is expected to decline by close to 15% by Q2 2023 from its historical peak in Q1 2022 as housing demand slows with rising interest rates and deteriorating economic and income conditions. Despite this house price decline, ownership affordability will not improve as the benefit from lower prices will be offset by rising interest rates. Rental affordability pressures will increase with rental demand as fewer renter households can access ownership. https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/blog/2022/road-ahead-economy-housing-fall-2022-update

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To buy or to rent: The housing market continues to be reshaped by several factors as Canadians search for an affordable place to call home

10/13/2022

The homeownership rate falls The proportion of Canadian households who own their homeor the homeownership rate (66.5% in 2021)is on the decline in Canada after peaking in 2011 (69.0%). The growth in renter households (+21.5%) is more than double the growth in owner households (+8.4%). Adults under the age of 75 were less likely to own their home in 2021 than adults in that age range a decade earlierespecially young millennials aged 25 to 29 years (36.5% in 2021 vs. 44.1% in 2011). A large share of newer builds are rentals Recently built dwellings are increasingly likely to be occupied by renters40.4% of the housing built in the five years ending in 2021 was tenant-occupied, the highest tenant rate next to that of dwellings built in the 1960s post-war apartment boom, at 44.5%. Over one-third of recently built dwellings, those constructed from 2011 to 2021, were occupied and primarily maintained by millennial (36.6%) renters or owners in 2021, the largest share of any generation. Millennials also represented the largest share of condominium occupants (30.2%) compared with the other generations. The share of condominiums continues to rise The rising trend of condominium construction continuesthe share of occupied dwellings that are condominiums edged up from 13.3% in 2016 to 15.0% in 2021. Most condominiums (90.0%) are located in Canadas large cities, known as census metropolitan areas (CMAs). In Canadas CMAs, condominiums made up 39.9% of the occupied stock in the primary downtowns in 2021, and half of these downtown condos were being rented out by investors. Home values continue to surge through 2021 Expected home values rose in large and small municipalities (census subdivisions [CSDs]) in Ontario and British Columbia from 2016 to 2021. Among CSDs, 77.8% in Ontario and 46.1% in British Columbia saw the average expected value of homes rise by over 50%. Differences in the impact of temporary COVID-19 benefits on household incomesfor renters and for homeownerswere a key contributor to the different degrees of improvement in housing affordability seen for each group, from 2016 to 2021. Canadians find their housing more affordable in 2021 because of higher incomes The rate of unaffordable housing, or the proportion of households that spent 30% or more of their income on shelter costs, fell from 24.1% in 2016 to 20.9% in 2021. The rate of unaffordable housing in Canada for renters fell from 40.0% in 2016 to 33.2% in 2021, with most of the decline occurring among renters earning below the median household income of all renters (68.4% in 2016, compared with 56.0% in 2021). https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220921/dq220921b-eng.htm

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Home sales fell for a sixth consecutive month in August

9/29/2022

From National Bank of Canada On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales fell 1.0% from July to August, bringing the level of sales 14.4% below its 10-year average. This was the sixth consecutive decline for this indicator, with sales down a cumulative 32.5% between February and August. Declines were observed in every province at the exception of Ontario, due notably to a rebound in sales in the GTA. We expect the current moderation in sales to continue going forward as the Bank of Canada continues to increase its overnight rate in restrictive territory. The rapid rise in interest rates by the central bank is certainly limiting the purchasing capacity of households while also having a psychological effect on some buyers who are waiting to see how high rates will stabilize before taking action. Rising interest rates and the slowdown in the market did not provoke an influx of sellers for the moment. On the contrary, new listings declined 5.4% between July and August. Overall, the number of months of inventory rose from 3.4 to 3.5 months in August, the highest level since May 2020. Based on the active-listings-to-sales ratio, market conditions loosened in the country and are now indicating a balanced market. Six provinces out of 10 are now in balanced territory: B.C., Saskatchewan, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and P.E.. The others continued to indicate market conditions favourable to sellers mainly due to lack of supply. On a year-over-year basis, home sales were down 24.7% compared to the second-strongest month of August in history last year. Sales were down in every province on a year-over-year basis, with the largest decline observed in B.C. (-40.0%) and the smallest in Saskatchewan (-2.2%). For the first eight months of 2022, cumulative sales were down 20.7% compared to the same period in 2021. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Teranet-National Bank House Price Index - Canada: Record price drop in August

9/22/2022

From National Bank of Canada In addition to recording a fourth consecutive monthly decline on a seasonally adjusted basis, the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index experienced its largest contraction ever in a single month (-2.1%) due to rapidly rising interest rates and a slowing resale market. This historic drop broke the previous record of -1.3% recorded in July 2010. Augusts data were also unique in that the declines extended to almost all the 31 cities covered by the index, except for the three CMAs located in Alberta (Calgary, Edmonton and Lethbridge), which is unprecedented. The reason for these isolated increases is obviously the high price of energy and many commodities that drive the economy in this province. Since its peak in May 2022, the composite index has already fallen 4.1%, led by significant declines in Hamilton (-10.5%). Halifax (-8.7%) and Toronto (-8.3%). Significant price declines were also observed in several cities not included in the composite index, including Abbotsford-Mission and many cities in the Golden Horseshoe (Brantford, Oshawa, Barrie, Kitchener, Guelph, and Peterborough). It should be noted, however, that the significant declines in these cities follow dramatic price increases since the start of the pandemic. As the Bank of Canada continues to raise its policy rate into restrictive territory, we expect the composite index to decline from its peak reached earlier this year by 10%-15% by the end of 2023. This assumes a policy rate that tops out below 4.0% and a Bank of Canada that begins to lower interest rates in the second half of 2023. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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CREA Quarterly Forecasts

9/16/2022

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) has updated its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service (MLS) Systems of Canadian real estate boards and associations in 2022 and 2023. With interest rates on the rise, home sales have continued to cool. In some parts of the country, home prices have fallen from their peaks reached earlier this year, are flat in some regions, and are still climbing in others. The issue of not enough homes for sale has not gone away. Some 532,545 properties are forecast to trade hands via Canadian MLS Systems in 2022, a decline of 20% from the 2021 annual record. The downward revision from CREAs June forecast was mostly the result of a downward revision to sales activity in Ontario, along with smaller revisions in B.C., Alberta and Quebec. The national average home price is forecast to rise by 4.7% on an annual basis to $720,255 in 2022. That said, much of that increase reflects how high prices were to start the year. Annual price gains are forecast to be largest in Quebec and the Maritimes. National home sales are forecast to edge back a further 2.3% to 520,156 units in 2023. The national average home price is forecast to slide mostly sideways (+0.2%) from 2022 to 2023 at around 722,000. https://www.crea.ca/housing-market-stats/canadian-housing-market-stats/quarterly-forecasts/

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Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 75 basis points, continues quantitative tightening

9/7/2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 3%, with the Bank Rate at 3% and the deposit rate at 3%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening. The global and Canadian economies are evolving broadly in line with the Banks July projection. The effects of COVID-19 outbreaks, ongoing supply disruptions, and the war in Ukraine continue to dampen growth and boost prices. Global inflation remains high and measures of core inflation are moving up in most countries. In response, central banks around the world continue to tighten monetary policy. Economic activity in the United States has moderated, although the US labour market remains tight. China is facing ongoing challenges from COVID shutdowns. Commodity prices have been volatile: oil, wheat and lumber prices have moderated while natural gas prices have risen.

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Prices have come down from their peak in July

8/24/2022

From the National Bank of Canada Declining transactions in the resale market and rising interest rates continue to weigh on property prices, with the Teranet-National Bank Composite House Price Index falling 0.2% from June to July after seasonal adjustments. This is the first monthly decline since the one seen at the beginning of the pandemic in June 2020. Using the unsmoothed seasonally adjusted index, which is more sensitive to market fluctuations, the decline is even more pronounced, with property prices falling 1.4% from June to July. Moreover, price decreases continue to be widespread across the country. In fact, for all 32 markets where the seasonally adjusted unsmoothed index was available in July, 58% experienced a decline during the month, the same proportion as observed in June, but much higher than those recorded since the beginning of the year. You have to go back to May 2020, at the very beginning of the pandemic when uncertainty was at its peak, to find such a large proportion of markets down. While the Bank of Canada has indicated that it will continue to raise its policy rate and that transactions in the real estate market should continue to decline, we anticipate that the composite index should decrease by 10% by the end of 2023. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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Home sales continued to fall in July

8/18/2022

From the National Bank of Canada On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales fell 5.3% from June to July, bringing the level of sales 12.8% below its 10-year average. This was the fifth consecutive decline for this indicator, with sales down a cumulative 31.1% between February and July. The slowdown was broad- based, with the number of transactions declining in three-quarters of the markets covered. We expect the current moderation in sales to continue going forward as the Bank of Canada is expected to raise its overnight rate further in September. The rapid rise in interest rates by the central bank is certainly having a psychological effect on buyers who are waiting to see how high rates will stabilize before taking action. Rising interest rates also seem to be having an effect on sellers who are postponing their decision to sell to a later date. Indeed, new listings declined 5.3% between June and July. Overall, the number of months of inventory rose from 3.1 to 3.4 months in July, the highest level in two years. Based on the active-listings-to-sales ratio, market conditions loosened in every province during the month, and the housing market in the country as a whole is now on the verged of indicating a balanced market. Six provinces out of 10 are now in balanced territory: B.C., Saskatchewan, Alberta, Manitoba, Ontario and P.E. (the latter having switched this month). The others continued to indicate market conditions favourable to sellers mainly due to lack of supply. On a year-over-year basis, home sales were down 29.3% compared to the second-strongest month of July in history last year. For the first seven months of 2022, cumulative sales were down 20.3% compared to the same period in 2021. Housing starts in Canada decreased for the first time in three months, dropping 8.3K in June to 273.8K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), in line with consensus expectations calling for a 274K print. With high commodity prices, labour shortages, and ongoing supply chain issues, this moderation in housing starts was expected and should continue in the coming months. However, with building permits remaining high and housing supply still tight, this moderation should stabilize at levels that remain strong on a historical basis. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Higher interest rates and household debt: Cause for recession?

8/10/2022

From National Bank of Canada There is a great deal of concern regarding the vulnerability of Canadian households not only to inflation shock but also to sharp interest rate hikes. For heavily indebted households, the bill could prove hefty. Those that contracted mortgages 4.Sx their gross income could see their monthly payments increase by $187 to $281 from 2022 to 2024 and absorb as much as 2.6% to 4.0% of their net income. At the macroeconomic level, however, the story is far different given the high proportion of properties without mortgages. By our calculations, the payment shock related to servicing the accumulated debt will represent 0.65% of disposable income over the next three years. The amount is significant but manageable in that it alone will not suffice to pull the economy into a recession. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/special-report_220728.pdf

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Prices continue to lose momentum in June

8/3/2022

With the decrease in resale market transactions and the increase in interest rates, property price growth moderated for a third consecutive month, but still remained solid in June at 1.0% after adjusting for seasonal effects. Using the seasonally adjusted unsmoothed index, which is more sensitive to market fluctuations, the moderation is even more pronounced, with property prices essentially flat in May and June. While the Bank of Canada has indicated that it will continue to raise its policy rate and that transactions in the real estate market should continue to decline, we anticipate that the composite index should decrease by 10% by the end of 2023. The price declines have already begun to spread across the country. In fact, for all 32 markets where the seasonally adjusted unsmoothed index was available in June, 58% experienced a decline during the month, compared to 34% in May and only 16% in January. We have to go back to May 2020, at the very beginning of the pandemic when uncertainty was at its peak, to find such a large proportion of markets in decline. https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-teranet.pdf

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CANADA: Home sales continued to fall in June

7/22/2022

From National Bank of Canda On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales fell 5.6% from May to June, bringing the level of sales 7.0% below its 10-year average. This was the fourth consecutive decline for this indicator, with sales down a cumulative 26.8% between February and June. The slowdown was broad- based, with the number of transactions declining in three quarters of the markets covered. We expect the current moderation in sales to continue going forward as the Bonk of Canada just announced a 1% rate increase this week and more rate hikes are expected by the end of the year. Now that interest rates for variable rate mortgages are generally over 4%, buyers must now qualify for the stress test with their mortgage rate +2% instead of a rate of 5.25%, which will add a drag on the market. The rapid rise in interest rates by the central bank is certainly having a psychological effect on buyers who are waiting to see how high rates will stabilize before taking action. According to CREA, new listings rose 4.1% in June, a second consecutive monthly increase. With the reduction in sales and the increase in new properties for sale, the number of months of inventory rose from 2.7 to 3.1 months in June, the highest level in two years. Based on the active-listings-to-sales ratio, market conditions loosened in every province during the month, but the housing market continued to be tight in the country as a whole. Five provinces out of 10 are now in balanced territory: B.C., Saskatchewan, Alberta, Manitoba and Ontario (the two latter having switched this month). The others continued to indicate market conditions favourable to sellers mainly due to lack of supply. On a year-over-year basis, home sales were down 23.9% compared to the strongest month of June in history last year. For the first semester of 2022, cumulative sales were down 18.9% compared to the same period in 2021. Housing starts in Canada increased for a second month in a row by 21.5K in May to 287.3K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), the strongest print since November 2021 (at 305.9K). Starts were well above consensus calling for a 255K print in May while building permits remained high on a historical basis and housing supply continues to be tight. As interest rates rise and demand in the resale market declines, we expect housing starts to moderate in the coming year. Data on housing starts in June will be published on July 18. The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 1.6% in May compared to April and after seasonal adjustment. Ten of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month, with Edmonton being the exception. On a year-over-year basis, home price increased by 18.3% in May. The June Teranet -National Bank HPI will be published on July 20. Source: https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Monetary Policy Report Press Conference Opening Statement; Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 100 basis points, continues quantitative tightening

7/14/2022

From Tiff Macklem - Governor Good morning. Im pleased to be here with Senior Deputy Governor Carolyn Rogers to discuss todays policy announcement and the Banks Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Today, we raised the policy interest rate by 100 basis points, or 1%. An increase of this magnitude at one meeting is very unusual. It reflects very unusual economic circumstances: inflation is nearly 8%a level not seen in nearly 40 years. I want to explain to Canadians why weve made this decision. There were three key considerations. First, inflation is too high, and more people are getting more worried that high inflation is here to stay. We cannot let that happen. Restoring price stabilitylow, stable and predictable inflationis paramount. Second, the Canadian economy is overheated. There are shortages of workers and of many goods and services. Demand needs to slow so supply can catch up and price pressures ease. And third, our goal is to get inflation back to its 2% target with a soft landing for the economy. To accomplish that, we are increasing our policy interest rate quickly to prevent high inflation from becoming entrenched. If it does, it will be more painful for the economyand for Canadiansto get inflation back down. With these important considerations in mind, the Governing Council decided to front-load the path to higher interest rates today. This is our fourth consecutive interest rate increase since March. We know that higher interest rates will add to the difficulties that Canadians are already facing with high inflation. But the strain of higher interest rates in the short term will bring inflation down for the long term. It will get us to the other side of this difficult period and back to normal. Things are not normal right now. After 30 years of low, stable inflation, many Canadians are experiencing the pain of high inflationand the uncertainty that comes with itfor the first time. Over half of the components in the consumer price index (CPI) basket are rising above 5%. When inflation is this high, it erodes the purchasing power of every Canadian. The drivers of inflation are the same in Canada as in most countries. The war in Ukraine and continued supply chain disruptions have boosted inflation in Canada and around the world. But what started as global inflation driven by higher global energy and goods prices is broadening here at home. Inflation is broadening because the Canadian economy is in excess demand. There arent enough goods and services to meet the demand were seeing as people enjoy a fully reopened economy. Employers cant find enough workers and theyre increasing wages to attract and retain staff. With households spending robustly, businesses are passing on higher input and labour costs by raising prices. Higher interest rates will help slow demand and allow supply time to catch up. Consumer spending will moderate as the pent-up demand from pandemic restrictions eases and the cost of borrowing increases. Housing market activity is already cooling rapidly from unsustainably high levels during the pandemic. And slower global growth will reduce demand for our exports. Taking all of this into account, we are forecasting annual growth in economic activity will be around 3% this year, 1% next year and 2% in 2024. As global bottlenecks gradually resolve and tighter monetary policy works its way through the economy, inflation will start to come down. While we may see a few more months with CPI inflation around 8%, we expect it to decline later this year, ease to about 3% by the end of next year and return to the 2% target by the end of 2024. This is the soft landing we are projecting. Interest rate increases can cool demand and inflation without choking off growth or causing a surge in unemployment. Some sectors will be more affected by interest rate increases than others, but the very tight labour market means there is room to reduce the number of job vacancies without having a big impact on overall employment. And with the prices of many of the commodities we export expected to remain elevated, the global forces slowing growth will not affect Canada as much as many other countries. But the path to this soft landing has narrowed because elevated inflation is proving more persistent. And this requires stronger action now so consumers and businesses can be confident that inflation will return to its 2% target. Our decision today takes the policy interest rate to 2%. That puts it in the long-run neutral range that neither stimulates nor restricts growth. We estimate that range to be between 2% and 3%. We continue to expect that interest rates will need to rise further to cool demand and achieve the inflation target. How high our policy rate needs to go will depend on how the economy and inflation evolves. By front-loading interest rate increases now, we are trying to avoid the need for even higher interest rates down the road. Front-loaded tightening cycles tend to be followed by softer landings. This argues for getting our policy rate quickly to the top end or slightly above the neutral range.

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Provincial Economic Forecast: Alberta and Saskatchewan to Top Growth Leaderboard This Year

7/8/2022

Weve downgraded our 2022 growth forecasts in most provinces by 0.1-0.9 percentage points compared to our March forecast, as a steeper climb in borrowing costs and persistently elevated inflation crimp household and business spending across the country. Real GDP is now projected to run from 1.4% in Newfoundland and Labrador to 5.5% in Alberta. The good news is that most regional economies appear to have entered the summer in solid form, leaving a cushion to absorb these shocks. As in recent months, households in the Atlantic region are expected to face the most intense inflation pressures in the near term, given the relatively high share of household budgets taken up by food and energy products. However, household debt burdens in the Atlantic (alongside Quebec and Saskatchewan) tend to be comparatively small. The opposite is true in Ontario and B.C., likely increasing the sensitivity of households to higher interest rates. Meanwhile, the Prairie and B.C. economies should continue to benefit from higher prices for agricultural and energy commodities, providing a strong counterbalance to the financial headwinds on households in those regions. Averaging around $110 per barrel in the second quarter, crude oil prices have moved in line with our March forecast. We project an even higher level for prices in the third quarter, before they gradually fall back towards $100 per barrel by year end on the back of a reduced fear premium, some demand destruction and modestly higher global supply. In the recently concluded provincial budget season, several governments committed to rolling out relief to households to help them cope with inflation. Notably, government spending should provide a tailwind to expansions. In aggregate, the Provinces are projected to remain in deficit over the medium term, while little headway will be made on reducing debt-to-GDP ratios. Housing markets are retrenching under the weight of higher interest rates. Home sales are down across nearly all provinces since February, while average home prices have dropped in Alberta, B.C. and especially Ontario. We believe that there is further downside left for markets as rates climb, and are forecasting continued declines in home sales and prices through the remainder of the year. Source: https://economics.td.com/provincial-economic-forecast

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Home sales plunged as interest rates continued to rise in May

6/30/2022

On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales slumped 8.6% from April to May, bringing the level of sales slightly below its 10-year average for the first time in 24 months. This decline also represents a third consecutive decrease, with sales down a cumulative 23.0% between February and May. The downward trend is now well established in the country as 75% of the markets have seen their number of transactions decrease during the month. We believe this market moderation should continue in the coming months as the tightening of monetary policy should push variable rates higher and make the stress test even more biting for buyers. Indeed, the stress test uses the higher of 5.25% or the contractual interest rate +2%. Until now, only customers opting for a fixed rate had to qualify with a rate of more than 5.25%. With the Bank of Canada policy rate increase expected in July, the qualification for a variable rate will also exceed 5.25%, a development that should cool the market further since over half of new mortgages are at variable rates. According to CREA, new listings rose 4.5% in May, the first increase in three months. With the reduction in sales and the increase in new properties for sale, the number of months of inventory rose from 2.3 to 2.7 months in May, its highest level since July 2020. Based on the active-listings-to-sales ratio, market conditions loosened in almost every province during the month, but the housing market continued to be tight in the country as a whole. There are now 3 provinces out of 10 in balanced territory; B.C., Saskatchewan, and Alberta (the latter switched this month). The others continued to indicate market conditions favourable to sellers mainly due to lack of supply. On a year-over-year basis, home sales fell 21.7% compared to the strongest month of May recorded in 2021. For the first five months of 2022, cumulative sales were down 17.8% compared to the same period in 2021. Housing starts in Canada increased for a second month in a row by 21.SK in May to 287.3K (seasonally adjusted and annualized), the strongest print since November 2021 (at 305.9K). Starts were well above consensus calling for a 255K print in May while building permits remained high on a historical basis and housing supply continues to be tight. As interest rates rise and demand in the resale market declines, we expect housing starts to also moderate in the coming year. The Teranet-National Bank Composite National House Price Index increased 2.0% in April compared to March and after seasonal adjustment. On a year-over-year basis, home price increased by 18.8% in April. Ten of the 11 markets in the composite index were up during the month, with Edmonton being the exception. Source: https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Canada’s Housing Supply Shortages: Estimating what is needed to solve Canada’s housing affordability crisis by 2030

6/24/2022

Were in a housing crisis. This report looks at the overall affordability for the entire housing system in Canada. The report has taken steps to estimate how much additional housing supply is required beyond current trends to restore housing affordability by 2030. Key Highlights CMHC projects that if current rates of new construction continue, the housing stock will increase to close to 19 million housing units by 2030. To restore affordability, CMHC projects Canada will need an additional 3.5 million units. Two-thirds of the 3.5 million housing unit gap is in Ontario and British Columbia where housing markets are least affordable. Additional supply would also be needed in Quebec, a province once considered affordable. It has seen a marked decline in affordability over the last few years. Other provinces remain largely affordable for a household with the average level of disposable income. However, challenges remain for low-income households in accessing housing that is affordable across Canada. Source: https://www.cmhc-schl.gc.ca/en/professionals/housing-markets-data-and-research/housing-research/research-reports/accelerate-supply/housing-shortages-canada-solving-affordability-crisis

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Housing Experiences in Canada: Persons with disabilities

6/17/2022

The Housing Experiences in Canada series of fact sheets highlights the diversity of housing situations experienced by different groups of people living across Canada. This fact sheet focuses on persons with disabilities living in private dwellings. Statistics below are derived from the 2017 Canadian Survey on Disability (CSD). The 2017 CSD identifies persons with disabilities based on responses to the disability screening questions in the survey. Since this fact sheet focuses on persons with disabilities in private dwellings, those living in collective dwellings such as hospitals and nursing homes are not included in the data. The National Housing Strategy Act (2019) declared that the right to adequate housing is a fundamental human right affirmed in international law. Adequate housing is understood in international law as housing that provides secure tenure; is affordable; is habitable; provides access to basic infrastructure; is located close to employment, services and amenities; is accessible for persons of all abilities; and is culturally appropriate. Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/pub/46-28-0001/2021001/article/00011-eng.htm

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Canadian Housing Statistics Program, 2019 and 2020

6/10/2022

New data from the Canadian Housing Statistics Program (CHSP) show the extent of inequalities in housing: multiple-property owners possess nearly one-third of all residential properties and the top 10% wealthiest owners account for around one-quarter of residential housing value. Despite these inequalities, new data show an increase in the number of first-time home buyers from 2018 to 2019. The data tables accompanying this release have been updated for the 2020 reference year, and expanded to include owners in Newfoundland and Labrador, Yukon, the Northwest Territories, and Nunavut. A new table on home buyers has also been added, covering Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, British Columbia and Yukon. These data provide a snapshot of property owners and buyers in the period prior to the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple-property owners own 31% of residential properties in Ontario In addition to their primary residences, multiple-property owners hold properties to receive rental income or for other investment purposes, or as a recreational property which may also provide rental income. Owners seeking additional properties contribute to increased competition in already tight real estate markets, making it more difficult for prospective homeowners to purchase a home. The overall impact of such holdings on housing prices and housing affordability, however, depends on a multitude of factors that are not fully assessed in this release. Individual multiple-property owners hold a significant share of the residential property stock, despite accounting for a relatively small number of owners. In Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, Ontario, and British Columbia in 2020, these owners held between 29% (British Columbia) and 41% (Nova Scotia) of the property stock while accounting for 15% (British Columbia) to 22% (Nova Scotia) of owners. Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220412/dq220412a-eng.htm

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Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, continues quantitative tightening

6/1/2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1%, with the Bank Rate at 1% and the deposit rate at 1%. The Bank is also continuing its policy of quantitative tightening (QT). Inflation globally and in Canada continues to rise, largely driven by higher prices for energy and food. In Canada, CPI inflation reached 6.8% for the month of April well above the Banks forecast and will likely move even higher in the near term before beginning to ease. As pervasive input price pressures feed through into consumer prices, inflation continues to broaden, with core measures of inflation ranging between 3.2% and 5.1%. Almost 70% of CPI categories now show inflation above 3%. The risk of elevated inflation becoming entrenched has risen. The Bank will use its monetary policy tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well anchored. The increase in global inflation is occurring as the global economy slows. The Russian invasion of Ukraine, Chinas COVID-related lockdowns, and ongoing supply disruptions are all weighing on activity and boosting inflation. The war has increased uncertainty and is putting further upward pressure on prices for energy and agricultural commodities. This is dampening the outlook, particularly in Europe. In the United States, private domestic demand remains robust, despite the economy contracting in the first quarter of 2022. US labour market strength continues, with wage pressures intensifying. Global financial conditions have tightened and markets have been volatile.

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Building construction price indexes, first quarter 2022

5/27/2022

National Overview Residential building construction costs increased 5.6% in the first quarter of 2022, the highest increase since the second quarter of 2021. Non-residential building construction costs were up 2.6% in the first quarter. Contractors surveyed attributed part of the growth in building construction costs to the rise in labour costs, and a surge in the number of vacancies for construction trades has contributed to increased wages in these occupations. In addition, amid rising fuel prices, contractors cited that a larger share of their expenses were now allocated to the transportation of their building materials. Increase in price growth for residential building construction Growth in residential building construction costs accelerated during the first quarter of 2022, after moderating in the previous two quarters. The majority of the 11 census metropolitan areas (CMAs) covered by the survey recorded larger quarterly increases than the previous two quarters. Rising residential construction costs were largely driven by rebounding softwood lumber prices. Costs to construct residential buildings increased the most in Calgary (+6.9%), followed by Edmonton and Toronto (both up 6.8%). While the construction costs to build a single-detached house in Toronto grew the most in the first quarter, the cost to build townhouses rose the most of all the buildings in scope for the survey in both Calgary and Edmonton. It is interesting to note that the rise in residential construction costs in Calgary and Edmonton coincided with the highest monthly increases recorded in new housing prices in over 15 years, with Calgary recording its recent high in March 2022 (+5.2%) and Edmonton reaching its recent high in February (+3.7%). Source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220505/dq220505b-fra.htm?indid=18843-2indgeo=0

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Home sales drop in April as mortgage rates shoot higher

5/16/2022

Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems dropped by 12.6% between March and April 2022. The decline placed monthly activity at the lowest level since the summer of 2020. While the national decline was led by the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) simply because of its size, sales were down in 80% of local markets, with most other large markets posting double-digit month-over-month declines in April. The exceptions were Victoria, Montreal and Halifax-Dartmouth where sales edged up slightly. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in April 2022 came in 25.7% below the record for that month set last year. That said, as has been the case since last summer, it was still the third-highest April sales figure ever behind 2021 and 2016. Following a record-breaking couple of years, housing markets in many parts of Canada have cooled off pretty sharply over the last two months, in line with a jump in interest rates and buyer fatigue, said Jill Oudil, Chair of CREA. For buyers, this slowdown could mean more time to consider options in the market. For sellers, it could necessitate a return to more traditional marketing strategies. Of course, there are significant regional differences, so your best bet is to contact your local REALTOR. They have the information, guidance negotiation skills to help you navigate this rapidly-changing market as it evolves, continued Oudil.

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National Bank of Canada: Home sales declined in March. Beginning of a downward slide?

5/5/2022

By Daren King On a seasonally adjusted basis, home sales decreased 5.4% from February to March, a first monthly decline in three months. Despite this decline, the resale market remained very active on a historical basis, standing above the historically high level of 45K now for 21 consecutive months. Is this the beginning of a downward trend in the Canadian real estate market? In our opinion, the housing market should remain active during the spring due to many people who have secured advantageous interest rates and will want to act before the end of their interest rate guarantee. However, with the recent increase in mortgage interest rates and the worst affordability conditions on record, we expect the residential market to slow down in the second half of the year. According to CREA, new listings decreased by 5.5% during the month. However, the reduction in sales compensated for the decrease in new properties for sale, so that the number of months of inventory rose from its historical low of 1.6 to 1.8 months in March. Based on the active-listings-to-sales ratio, the housing market continued to be tight in 9 of the 10 provinces, with only Saskatchewan indicating a balanced market. These market conditions should continue to support prices in the coming months. On a year-over-year basis, home sales fell 16.3% compared to the most active month ever recorded for any period of the year that was March 2021. Nevertheless, it remains the second most active month of March on record. Housing starts decreased by 4.0K in March to 246.2K, a slide of 1.6% m/m from 250.2K in February and below consensus expectations calling for a 250K print. Although housing starts in March were slightly below consensus expectations, they remained high on a historical basis. The trend in housing permits continues to suggest a higher level of starts at this time. Moreover, with the tight conditions in the resale market, the willingness of various levels of government to build more and the resumption of immigration, housing starts should remain high for some time. That being said, we are entering the building season in Canada with elevated commodity prices and renewed supply chain challenges. Combined with more restrictive monetary policy by the Bank of Canada, we expect housing starts to taper in 2023. The Teranet-National Bank Composite Notional House Price Index increased 1.7% in February compared to January after seasonal adjustment. On a year-over-year basis, home price increased by 17.7% in February. All 11 markets of the composite index were up in the month. The March Teranet-National Bank HPI will be published on April 20. Source: National Bank of Canada https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/economic-news-resale-market.pdf

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Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate by 50 basis points, begins quantitative tightening

4/13/2022

The Bank of Canada today increased its target for the overnight rate to 1%, with the Bank Rate at 1% and the deposit rate at 1%. The Bank is also ending reinvestment and will begin quantitative tightening (QT), effective April 25. Maturing Government of Canada bonds on the Banks balance sheet will no longer be replaced and, as a result, the size of the balance sheet will decline over time. Russias ongoing invasion of Ukraine is causing unimaginable human suffering and new economic uncertainty. Price spikes in oil, natural gas and other commodities are adding to inflation around the world. Supply disruptions resulting from the war are also exacerbating ongoing supply constraints and weighing on activity. These factors are the primary drivers of a substantial upward revision to the Banks outlook for inflation in Canada. The war in Ukraine is disrupting the global recovery, just as most economies are emerging from the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. European countries are more directly impacted by confidence effects and supply dislocations caused by the war. Chinas economy is facing new COVID outbreaks and an ongoing correction in its property market. In the United States, domestic demand remains very strong and the US Federal Reserve has clearly indicated its resolve to use its monetary policy tools to control inflation. As policy stimulus is withdrawn, US growth is expected to moderate to a pace more in line with potential growth. Global financial conditions have tightened and volatility has increased. The Bank now forecasts global growth of about 3% this year, 2% in 2023 and 3% in 2024.

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VERICO Canada receives 5-Star Mortgage Employer award for second year in a row

4/8/2022

The size of companies represented in the survey ranged from 125 employees to 500+, with 43% of the brokerages having 26100 employees. Among the respondents, 50% were classified as brokerages, 36% were lenders, and the rest are in the technology, network, or other categories. This years 5-Star winners gained high scores for putting the working environment front and center, under what can only be characterized as extraordinary times, by focusing on what is best for brokers and, by extension, the clients they serve. As the survey showed, the winners made work-life balance, benefits and bonus compensation, a supportive working atmosphere, and a productive work culture their top priorities. The impressive 5-star accolade recognizes Canadas award-winning independent and storied brokerage, VERICO, for their outstanding contributions to the mortgage sector when it comes to career development, commitment to diversity and inclusion, and incentive and training programs, says Dino Di Pancrazio, Chief Strategy Officer, Head of Mortgage Division of M3 Mortgage. Read More: https://www.mpamag.com/ca/best-in-mortgage/5-star-mortgage-employers-2022/399366#winnersListSection

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February home sales rise as buyers scoop up first of the 2022 spring listings

3/28/2022

Statistics released by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales were up in February 2022 as buyers jumped on the first batch of spring listings. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems climbed 4.6% between January and February 2022. The monthly increase in activity was likely the result of a rebound in new listings in February following big a decline in January. As such, stronger activity may persist as late-February new listings continue to sell in March. Sales were up in about 60% of local markets in February, led by some big jumps in Calgary and Edmonton, as well as a gain ahead of the national increase in the GTA. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in February 2022 came in 8.2% below the monthly record set in 2021. That said, as was the case in January and throughout the second half of 2021, it was still the second-highest level on record for that month.

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The continued reconfiguration of global supply chains

3/18/2022

Because of China-U.S. trade tensions and the pandemic, many corporations and governments had already made long-term plans to diversify supply chains and re-shore production in key sectors in order to break their reliance on geopolitical rivals for key goods. Russias invasion of Ukraine will accelerate this trend. One example of how recent sanctions will further rejig supply chains are U.S. restrictions on Russias ability to purchase such things as microchips, advanced machinery, and airplane parts. These measures apply not just to goods made in America, but also to those made in other countries with American technology.While China will no doubt step in to replace America in some of these areas, it cannot yet produce latest-generation semiconductors or provide spare parts for Western-made aircraft. It is important to note, also, that it will take Western countries many years to find or develop alternative sources for many of Russias commodity exports, particularly in the mineral sector. The International Energy Agency estimated that it takes more than 16 years on average to move mining projects from the discovery to the production phase.Europe has been an especially large consumer of Russian commodities, including copper, nickel, palladium, and titanium. Source: https://www.nbc.ca/content/dam/bnc/en/rates-and-analysis/economic-analysis/geopolitical-briefing-220315.pdf

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Bank of Canada increases policy interest rate

3/11/2022

The Bank of Canada increased its target for the overnight rate to %, with the Bank Rate at % and the deposit rate at %. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds on its balance sheet roughly constant until such time as it becomes appropriate to allow the size of its balance sheet to decline. The unprovoked invasion of Ukraine by Russia is a major new source of uncertainty. Prices for oil and other commodities have risen sharply. This will add to inflation around the world, and negative impacts on confidence and new supply disruptions could weigh on global growth. Financial market volatility has increased. The situation remains fluid and we are following events closely. Global economic data has come in broadly in line with projections in the Banks January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Economies are emerging from the impact of the Omicron variant of COVID-19 more quickly than expected, although the virus continues to circulate and the possibility of new variants remains a concern. Demand is robust, particularly in the United States. Global supply bottlenecks remain challenging, although there are indications that some constraints have eased. Economic growth in Canada was very strong in the fourth quarter of last year at 6.7%. This is stronger than the Banks projection and confirms its view that economic slack has been absorbed. Both exports and imports have picked up, consistent with solid global demand. In January, the recovery in Canadas labour market suffered a setback due to the Omicron variant, with temporary layoffs in service sectors and elevated employee absenteeism. However, the rebound from Omicron now appears to be well in train: household spending is proving resilient and should strengthen further with the lifting of public health restrictions. Housing market activity is more elevated, adding further pressure to house prices. Overall, first-quarter growth is now looking more solid than previously projected.

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3 essential healthy credit card habits

2/24/2022

A credit card is only a benefit if you have a good relationship with your spending. Otherwise, your shiny new financial tool can quickly turn into a burden. How do you make sure that doesnt happen? Try these three key money habits. 1. Pay off your purchases When you use your credit card to make purchases, youre then responsible for paying it off. Each month, youll receive a statement outlining how much youve spent on your card and how much you need to pay off. Paying off the entire balance each month will help you avoid costly interest charges, but if you cant afford that, at least make the minimum payment to prevent a ding on your credit score. 2. Manage your credit utilization ratio Your credit cards limit is the maximum amount of debt you can carry at one time. Your limit will usually be between $1,000 and $10,000. You shouldnt spend right up to your credit cards limit, though. Getting too close to the limit will negatively affect your credit score due a calculation called your credit utilization ratio. Your credit utilization ratio is a measure of your credit card balance against your total credit limit. To maximize your credit score, keep your credit utilization ratio below 35%. For example, if you have a credit card with a $10,000 limit, try not to carry a balance higher than $3,500. 3. Choose the right credit limit Choose a credit limit that accurately reflects your spending habits. If you only plan to use your credit card for occasional purchases and online shopping, a few thousand dollars should be enough. If you spend thousands of dollars per month on it, pick a higher credit limit to keep your credit utilization ratio in check. Be realistic about how youll pay it back, as well. If you know that you occasionally carry a credit card balance and incur interest charges, choose a smaller credit limit to minimize the monthly interest youll pay.

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Canada's large urban centres continue to grow and spread

2/10/2022

In 2021, nearly three in four Canadians (73.7%) lived in one of Canadas large urban centres, up from 73.2% five years earlier. These large urban centres with a population of 100,000 or more people, referred to as census metropolitan areas (CMAs), accounted for most of Canadas population growth (+5.2%) from 2016 to 2021. Canada continues to urbanize as large urban centres benefit most from new arrivals to the country. From 2016 to 2019, Canada welcomed a record high number of immigrants and more than 9 in 10 settled in CMAs. There were six more CMAs in 2021 compared with five years earlier, another sign of the increasing urbanization of the country. Rapid population growth in cities is increasing the need for infrastructure, transportation and services of all kindsincluding front-line emergency services. Further urban spread also raises environmental concerns such as car-dependent cultures and encroachment on farmlands, wetlands and wildlife. Source:https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/220209/dq220209b-eng.htm?HPA=1

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, removes exceptional forward guidance

1/26/2022

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of %, with the Bank Rate at % and the deposit rate at %. With overall economic slack now absorbed, the Bank has removed its exceptional forward guidance on its policy interest rate. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant. The global recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic is strong but uneven. The US economy is growing robustly while growth in some other regions appears more moderate, especially in China due to current weakness in its property sector. Strong global demand for goods combined with supply bottlenecks that hinder production and transportation are pushing up inflation in most regions. As well, oil prices have rebounded to well above pre-pandemic levels following a decline at the onset of the Omicron variant of COVID-19. Financial conditions remain broadly accommodative but have tightened with growing expectations that monetary policy will normalize sooner than was anticipated, and with rising geopolitical tensions. Overall, the Bank projects global GDP growth to moderate from 6 % in 2021 to about 3 % in 2022 and 2023.

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Bank of Canada/OSFI pilot helps Canadian financial sector assess climate change risks

1/21/2022

The Bank of Canada and Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) released the results of a pilot project on climate scenario analysis. This pilot was an important step in helping Canadas financial sector improve its ability to analyze economic and financial risks affecting financial institutions that could arise from climate change. Together with six Canadian financial institutions, the Bank and OSFI developed scenarios that will help the financial sector identify, measure and disclose climate-related risks. These scenarios were not intended to be forecasts or predictions. Rather, they were specifically designed to capture a range of potential outcomes and illustrate the kinds of stresses on the financial system and economy that could occur as the world transitions to a low-carbon future. All scenarios showed that this transition will entail important risks for some economic sectors. Mispricing of transition risks could expose financial institutions and investors to sudden and large losses. It could also delay investments needed to help mitigate the impact of climate change. source: https://www.osfi-bsif.gc.ca/Eng/osfi-bsif/med/Pages/clrsk-mgm_nr.aspx

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Scotiabank Nowcast: Employment Gains Continued Prior to Omicron Spread, Q4-2021 GDP at 6.22%

1/7/2022

This note is part of a series that will be published after important data releases, documenting mechanical updates of the nowcast for Canadian GDP coming from the Scotiabank nowcasting model. The evolution of this nowcast will inform Scotiabank Economics official macroeconomic outlook. The Canadian labour market continued to power ahead in December according to Statistics Canadas labour force survey (LFS), with the net gain of +55K jobs for the month that brought the unemployment rate down to 5.9%, just 0.2 ppts above the level of February 2020. This bodes well for the overall Canadian GDP growth in December and is in line with our Q4-2021 estimate of +6.22% Q/Q SAAR. The timing of the survey (December 5 to 11) means that it largely missed the beginning of the spread of the Omicron variant and the late-December tightening in public health measures that occurred in response to it. The flooding in BC, a source of downside risk to the short term outlook, occurred after the LFS was completed in November. In December, however, the LFS picked up the beginning of the reconstruction phase, according to StatCan. As a result, we are not likely to find out the true impact of this disaster on the labour market until the November survey of employment, payrolls and hours (SEPH) is released in late January. With these caveats, the underlying picture of the labour market in Canada is one of continuing recovery. The ratio of employment to population (61.5%), the labour force participation rate (65.3%), the unemployment rate (5.9%) are all within 0.2 0.3 ppts of their respective February 2020 levels, signalling a rapid diminishing of the labour market slack. Even the ranks of those unemployed for 52 weeks or longer, while still significantly elevated at 293K (Feb 2020: 179K), continued to fall rapidly in December. The tightness in the labour market spurred a recovery in wages, which grew 2.7% y/y in December, although this increase was much weaker than the rate of inflation over the same period. While the spread of the Omicron variant will likely lead to short term weakness in employment, in particular in the high-contact industries that are subject to public health restrictions, it is already exacerbating labour shortages in essential services as scores of employees self-isolate having tested positive for the virus. With inflation running significantly above the Bank of Canadas inflation-control target range, the labour market slack essentially gone and wages picking up, the short term impact of the Omicron spread is unlikely to alter the Bank of Canada on its path to higher rates in 2022. Source: Scotiabank Global Economics

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OSFI maintains Qualifying rate at mortgage contract rate plus 2 percent or 5.25 percent

12/17/2021

The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) confirmed that the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages will remain the greater of the mortgage contract rate plus 2 percent or 5.25 percent. In an environment characterized by increased household indebtedness and low interest rates, it is essential that lenders test their borrowers to ensure that mortgages can continue to be paid during more adverse conditions. This environment supports todays decision to maintain the current minimum qualifying rate. Mortgages are typically one of the largest exposures that banks carry on their balance sheets. Ensuring that borrowers can continue to repay their mortgage loans strongly contributes to the safety and soundness of Canadas financial system. OSFI reviews and communicates the minimum qualifying rate at least every December. Throughout the year, we will continue to monitor the appropriateness of the minimum qualifying rate and will make further adjustments, if conditions warrant.

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate and forward guidance

12/10/2021

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of percent, with the Bank Rate at percent and the deposit rate at percent. The Banks extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate is being maintained. The Bank is continuing its reinvestment phase, keeping its overall holdings of Government of Canada bonds roughly constant. The global economy continues to recover from the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. Economic growth in the United States has accelerated, led by consumption, while growth in some other regions is moderating after a strong third quarter. Inflation has increased further in many countries, reflecting strong demand for goods amid ongoing supply disruptions. The new Omicron COVID-19 variant has prompted a tightening of travel restrictions in many countries and a decline in oil prices, and has injected renewed uncertainty. Accommodative financial conditions are still supporting economic activity. Canadas economy grew by about 5 percent in the third quarter, as expected. Together with a downward revision to the second quarter, this brings the level of GDP to about 1 percent below its level in the last quarter of 2019, before the pandemic began. Third-quarter growth was led by a rebound in consumption, particularly services, as restrictions were further eased and higher vaccination rates improved confidence. Persistent supply bottlenecks continued to inhibit growth in other components of GDP, including non-commodity exports and business investment.

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CANADA HOUSING MARKET: THE FALL’S RISE

11/18/2021

Canadian home sales rose by 8.6% (sa m/m) in October, the largest increase since July 2020. Listings moved in the same direction, albeit by a much smaller 3.2% (sa m/m). The larger increase in sales carried the sales-to-new listings ratio, an indicator of how tight the market is, to 79.5%, up from 75.5% in September, and much higher than its long-term average of 54.5%. As a result, the composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rose by 2.7% (sa m/m)the third consecutive acceleration, and the biggest, after months of price gains deceleration. Single-family homes and apartments were the main drivers of Octobers price gain. Movements in the market were broad-based, with the uptick in sales spread out across much of the country. Sales went up in 28 of 31 local markets we track. Kitchener-Waterloo recorded the largest increase (29.5% sa m/m) followed by Thunder Bay, Kingston, Okanagan-Mainline, and Winnipegall recording increases of over 15% (sa m/m). While these are mainly suburban secondary markets, primary markets are also showing signs of strength, with Torontos sales going up by 9.9% (sa m/m) and Montreals and Vancouvers by 7.8% (sa m/m). Octobers national level of sales is historically strongthe second highest on record for October after October 2020, and a remarkable 40% (sa) higher than the 20002019 October-average. source: https://www.scotiabank.com/ca/en/about/economics/economics-publications/post.other-publications.housing.housing-news-flash.november-15--2021.html

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Excess Household Savings and Implications for Inflation in Canada

11/8/2021

Canadians have built up a record amount of savings during the pandemic. By some estimates, it totals around $300 billion. This stockpiled spending firepower has fueled concerns that inflation could be higher and more persistent than currently thought, especially at a time of growing supply-side constraints. However, there are a few reasons to suggest the inflation impulse from excess savings may not be as hefty as some believe. The amount of funds in highly liquid cash form is significantly lower than the headline estimate, consumers are likely to gradually draw on their savings to spend, and the reorientation of outlays from goods to services will dampen price pressures. Still, the amount accumulated in savings is large and unprecedented. This represents an important upside risk to the Bank of Canadas consumption and inflation forecast in the October Monetary Policy Report. Source: https://economics.td.com/ca-excess-saving

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Canadian home prices continue to re-accelerate in September

10/25/2021

Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems were up 0.9% between August and September 2021, marking the first monthover-month increase since March. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in September 2021 was down 17.5% on a year-over-year basis, from the record for that month set last year. That said, it was still the second-highest ever September sales figure by a sizeable margin. September provided another months worth of evidence from all across Canada that housing market conditions are stabilizing near current levels, said Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. In some ways that comes as a relief given the volatility of the last year-and-a-half, but the issue is that demand/supply conditions are stabilizing in a place that very few people are happy about. There is still a lot of demand chasing an increasingly scarce number of listings, so this market remains very challenging. Thats why your best bet is to consult with your local REALTOR for information and guidance about navigating the current market, continued Stevenson.

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Residential permits continue to trend down since March peak

10/7/2021

Residential permits decreased 8.3% to $6.4 billion in August, the lowest level since March. Ontario and British Columbia drove most of the decline. Construction intentions for multi-family units fell 15.9%, largely reflecting Ontarios decline (-24.3%). This was despite the approval of high value condominium projects in the city of Toronto. In contrast, single family intentions were up slightly (+1.2%), led by a 15.7% gain in Quebec. Additionally, Newfoundland and Labrador (+0.7%) reported the first provincial increase in this component after six consecutive monthly declines.

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Price growth continues to decrease in August

10/1/2021

In August, the TeranetNational Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 1.0% from the previous month. It is now the third consecutive month in which the monthly price increase is lower than the previous month (2.8% in May, 2.7% in June and 2.0% in July). The August index was led by six of the 11 constituent markets: Ottawa-Gatineau (2.1%), Hamilton (1.7%), Montreal (2.1%), Quebec City (1.3%), Winnipeg (1.3%) and Victoria (1.3%). Growth was equal to the national average in Halifax (1.0%), while it was more moderate in Vancouver (0.8%), Calgary (0.8%), Toronto (0.7%) and Edmonton (0.6%). This is the sixth consecutive month in which gains were observed in all regions included in the composite index. The slowdown in price growth can be linked to the slowdown in housing sales reported in recent months by the Canadian Real Estate Association. In fact, when analyzing the 12-month growth in the number of sale pairsused to calculate the 11 metropolitan indices, this is the first time in twelve months that they have not increased in all cities. Moreover, this slowdown in price is expected to continue in the coming months as the unsmoothed composite index adjusted for seasonal effects rose only 0.1% from July. Source: https://housepriceindex.ca/2021/09/august2021/

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Bank of Canada maintains policy rate, continues forward guidance and current pace of quantitative easing

9/13/2021

The Bank of Canada on September 8th held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of percent, with the Bank Rate at percent and the deposit rate at percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance on the path for the overnight rate. This is reinforced and supplemented by the Banks quantitative easing (QE) program, which is being maintained at a target pace of $2 billion per week. The global economic recovery continued through the second quarter, led by strong US growth, and had solid momentum heading into the third quarter. However, supply chain disruptions are restraining activity in some sectors and rising cases of COVID-19 in many regions pose a risk to the strength of the global recovery. Financial conditions remain highly accommodative. In Canada, GDP contracted by about 1 percent in the second quarter, weaker than anticipated in the Banks July Monetary Policy Report (MPR). This largely reflects a contraction in exports, due in part to supply chain disruptions, especially in the auto sector. Housing market activity pulled back from recent high levels, largely as expected. Consumption, business investment and government spending all contributed positively to growth, with domestic demand growing at more than 3 percent. Employment rebounded through June and July, with hard-to-distance sectors hiring as public health restrictions eased. This is reducing unevenness in the labour market, although considerable slack remains and some groups particularly low-wage workers are still disproportionately affected. The Bank continues to expect the economy to strengthen in the second half of 2021, although the fourth wave of COVID-19 infections and ongoing supply bottlenecks could weigh on the recovery. CPI inflation remains above 3 percent as expected, boosted by base-year effects, gasoline prices, and pandemic-related supply bottlenecks. These factors pushing up inflation are expected to be transitory, but their persistence and magnitude are uncertain and will be monitored closely. Wage increases have been moderate to date, and medium-term inflation expectations remain well-anchored. Core measures of inflation have risen, but by less than the CPI. The Governing Council judges that the Canadian economy still has considerable excess capacity, and that the recovery continues to require extraordinary monetary policy support. [The Bank of Canada] remains committed to holding the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In the Banks July projection, this happens in the second half of 2022. The Banks QE program continues to reinforce this commitment and keep interest rates low across the yield curve. Decisions regarding future adjustments to the pace of net bond purchases will be guided by Governing Councils ongoing assessment of the strength and durability of the recovery. [The Bank of Canada] will continue to provide the appropriate degree of monetary policy stimulus to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective. Information note The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is October 27, 2021. The next full update of the Banks outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR at the same time. Source: Bank of Canada

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Ontario weighs down residential permits nationally

9/7/2021

The total value of building permits in Canada decreased 3.9% to $9.9 billion in July. All provinces except British Columbia and Newfoundland and Labrador posted lower values, with the majority of the national decline reported in Alberta (-23.4%). Building permits fell 3.1% in the residential sector and 5.6% in the non-residential sector. On a constant dollar basis (2012=100), building permits fell 3.8% to $7.0 billion. Seven provinces reported declines in the residential sector, led by Ontario (-10.5%). Single-family permits fell 9.6% in July, with two provinces showing growth. Ontario (-9.1%) contributed the most to the decrease. Construction intentions for multi-family units rose 2.7% in July. British Columbia posted an increase of 55.1%, which was driven by high-valued condo projects in the city of Surrey. In contrast, Ontario reversed strong growth in June (+67.6%) and fell 11.7% in July due to fewer high-valued condo permits reported for the census metropolitan areas (CMA) of Hamilton and Guelph.

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Labour Force Survey, July 2021

8/19/2021

July Labour Force Survey (LFS) data reflect labour market conditions during the week of July 11 to 17. Between the June and July reference weeks, many jurisdictions substantially eased public health restrictions affecting indoor and outdoor dining, recreation and cultural activities, retail shopping, and personal care services. All public health restrictionsaside from some masking and screening requirements in select settingswere lifted in Alberta (July 1) and Saskatchewan (July 11). British Columbia also lifted virtually all restrictions (July 1), although some capacity limits on certain activities remained. All regions of Quebec moved into the lowest level of restrictions (June 28), followed by a removal of retail capacity limits (July 12). In Ontario, personal care services partially resumed at the end of June, and the province reopened indoor dining and permitted recreational activities, with certain limitations, at the end of the LFS reference week (July 16). In Manitoba, personal care services and restaurants reopened at the end of June, and capacity limits on restaurants, gyms, and retail stores were further eased on July 17.

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Ontario residential permits bounce back

8/9/2021

The total value of building permits rose 6.9% to $10.3 billion in June. Seven provinces contributed to the gain, led by Ontario, which jumped 22.7%. Construction intentions in the residential sector were up 9.1%, while the non-residential sector advanced 2.2%. On a constant dollar basis (2012=100), building permits increased 5.2% to $7.2 billion. High-value permits for new apartment buildings in the census metropolitan areas (CMA) of Toronto and Hamilton helped push multi-family permits up 13.5% to $3.7 billion nationally in June. Provincially, Ontario led the way, rebounding 67.8% to $1.8 billion. On the other hand, Quebec reported the largest decrease (-29.9%), pulling back from a record high in May. Construction intentions for single-family dwellings increased 4.7% to $3.4 billion. Seven provinces saw gains in this component, led by Ontario and Alberta. Overall, the value of residential building permits increased 9.1% to $7.2 billion, following two months of lower construction intentions.

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Housing market continues to moderate in June

7/16/2021

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales were down between May and June 2021. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems fell by 8.4% month-over month in June 2021, marking the third straight monthly slowdown since activity hit an all-time record back in March. While sales are now down a cumulative 25% from their peak, and below every other month in the last year, June transactions still managed to set a record for that month. Month-over-month declines in sales activity were once again quite broad-based, with sales moderating in around 80% of all local markets, including almost all large markets across Canada. The actual (not seasonally adjusted) number of transactions in June 2021 was up 13.6% on a year-over-year basis and marked a new record for that month. While there is still a lot of activity in many housing markets across Canada, things have noticeably calmed down in the last few months, said Cliff Stevenson, Chair of CREA. There remains a shortage of supply in many parts of the country, but at least there isnt the same level of competition among buyers we were seeing a few months ago. As these conditions continue to evolve over the summer and fall, your best bet is to consult with your local REALTOR for information and guidance about buying or selling a home at this stage in the cycle, continued Stevenson.

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Record rise of home prices in May

7/7/2021

In May the TeranetNational Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 2.8% from the previous month, the largest monthly rise since the index series began in 1999. It was led by four of the 11 constituent markets: Ottawa-Gatineau (4.9%), Halifax (4.3%), Hamilton (3.7%) and Toronto (3.4%). Rises were more moderate for Vancouver (2.3%), Winnipeg (2.2%), Montreal (2.2%), Victoria (2.1%), Calgary (1.4%), Quebec City (1.2%) and Edmonton (1.2%). It was a third consecutive month in which all 11 markets of the composite index were up from the month before. The May rise was consistent with the increase in number of home sales over the last several months as reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association. For a ninth straight month, the number of sale pairs entering into the 11 metropolitan indexes was higher than a year earlier. The unsmoothed composite index, seasonally adjusted, was up 2.1% in May, suggesting that the uptrend of the published (smoothed) index could continue. The May composite index was up 13.7% from a year earlier, for a 10th consecutive acceleration and the strongest 12-month gain since July 2017. The 12-month rise was led by five markets Halifax (29.9%), Hamilton (25.5%), Ottawa-Gatineau (22.8%), Montreal (17.6%) and Victoria (15.3%). Toronto matched the countrywide average at 13.7%. Lagging that average were Vancouver (11.9%), Winnipeg (10.4%), Quebec City (9.8%), Calgary (4.5%) and Edmonton (3.6%). Besides the Toronto and Hamilton indexes included in the countrywide composite, indexes exist for seven smaller urban areas of the Golden Horseshoe Barrie, Guelph, Brantford, Kitchener, St. Catharines, Oshawa and Peterborough. In May all seven were up from the previous month and from a year earlier. The 12-month gains ranged from 27.6% for Brantford to 31.4% for Barrie. Source: https://housepriceindex.ca/2021/06/may2021/

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Similar Housing Demand Conditions in Canada and US

6/3/2021

Housing markets in Canada and the US are sizzling. Recent headlines have used superlatives to describe housing market conditions in both countries and the data do back this up. Still, a closer look reveals some interesting distinctions as well. Home price and sales metrics show that while the US market is hot, Canadas is hotter. For example, existing home sales, which make up the majority of overall sales in both countries, is well above historical averages, but Canadian home sales have outperformed. As of March 2021, home sales in Canada were 75% higher than the average over 2018 and 2019, while it was 13% above in the US. Likewise, home prices also spiked. In Canada, the average home sold was 32% more expensive than what it was a year ago, and it was 17% higher stateside. From a high level, the list of commonalties across markets during the pandemic is longer than the areas of difference, particularly on the demand side. Perhaps the most influential demand-side driver has been historically low mortgage rates. Responding to the impacts of the pandemic, the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve slashed rates and enacted large quantitative easing programs early last year, resulting in a sharp drop in borrowing costs. Given that the US conventional mortgage rate is a 30-year rate compared to Canadas 5-year benchmark, borrowing costs fell faster in America as flight to safety flows lowered longer term yields at the onset of the pandemic. Source:https://economics.td.com/housing-heat-check

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CANADA HOUSING MARKET and new stress test

5/27/2021

Canadian home sales took a turn in April 2021, declining by 12.5% (sa m/m) from the highest level on record in March 2021. Listings followed suit, falling by 5.4% (sa m/m). While both sales and listings decreased in April, the smaller decline in listings further eased the national-level sales-to-new listings to 75.2% from record high readings earlier this year (the highest being 91% in January). While this is a move in the right direction towards a better supply-demand balance, the ratio is still significantly higher than its long-term average of 54.5%. As a result of this persistent tightness in the housing market, the composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI) rose by 2.4% (sa m/m). This is a deceleration in price gains from paces observed over the last two months, owing in the most part to a slowing in prices for single-family homes and townhouses. Apartments, which had remained relatively close to pre-pandemic levels before accelerating earlier this year have maintained momentum in April. Movements in the housing market this month continued to be broad-based rather than market-specific, as declines in sales were spread out across much of the country. The Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) also announced that, effective June 1, the minimum qualifying rate for uninsured mortgages (i.e., residential mortgages with a down payment of 20 percent or more) will be the greater of the mortgage contract rate plus 2 percent or 5.25 percent.

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Scotiabank: Why Canada needs to focus on ways to encourage more home building

5/14/2021

The recent run-up in housing prices, and the attendant worries about affordability and accessibility, have many stakeholders scrambling to find quick solutions. While understandable, those approaches are likely to have only minimal impacts on Canadas housing situation and its consequences for people looking for a reasonably priced place to live. Focusing on interest rate policy or macroprudential instruments, such as stricter mortgage stress tests, draws attention away from the underlying cause of the problem: the inability of supply to meet demand. Put simply, this country doesnt build enough housing. We should not be surprised by this. Canada has increased immigration dramatically in recent years to tremendous benefit to the economy, but we failed to pro-actively address the housing challenges the consequent population boom was sure to bring. Policy efforts must focus far more on anticipatory, collaborative, multistakeholder and very specific solutions to the housing situation rather than on the short-term and ultimately ineffective macroprudential Band-Aids applied in recent years. Scotiabank Economics is publishing research this week looking at the increase in Canadas housing stock relative to the increase in population over the past several years to get a sense of how effective we have been in creating new units. The numbers are not encouraging. One way to look at it is by using the ratio of new housing to population growth. By that measure, construction has been well below its historical average since mid-2017. That is perhaps not surprising, given that Canada has seen an immigration-fuelled population boom since 2015. In the three years leading up to the COVID-19 pandemic, population grew nearly twice as fast as new housing units were being built. That ratio improved somewhat with the COVID-related stall in immigration, but it is likely to reverse course once immigration returns to planned levels. Dan Rees is group head, Canadian banking at the Bank of Nova Scotia. Jean-Franois Perrault is Scotiabanks chief economist

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Two-thirds of Canadians were asset resilient in the year prior to the pandemic

5/10/2021

Just over two-thirds (67.1%) of Canadians were asset resilient for at least three months in 2019, up from 63.6% in 1999. Over these two decades, several factors contributed to the overall rate of asset resilience. For one thing, Canadians held more liquid assets at the end of the period. Median person-adjusted household liquid assets rose from $6,300 in 1999 to $10,700 in 2019. Canadians were also slightly older, on averagethe median age of Canadians increased from 36.4 years to 40.8 years. Family income has also been rising since 1999, and asset resilience is associated with higher income. The median person-adjusted, household after-tax income of Canadians increased by one-third (+34.9%), rising from $37,300 in 1999 to $50,300 in 2019, while the share of Canadians below the LIM-AT edged down from 12.4% to 12.1%. source: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/210504/dq210504e-eng.htm

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Big jump in home prices in March

4/23/2021

The Teranet-National Bank HPI jumped 1.5% to a new high in March, its 17th straight monthly rise. Its recent vigour coincides with historically high numbers of home sales in most regions of Canada, coupled with limited supply. The monthly jump of the unsmoothed HPI was even bigger 2.7%, the most of any month since July 2006, taking the unsmoothed index to a cumulative rise of 11.9% since last June (left chart). The rapid rise of home prices continues in the great majority of large Canadian cities, with prices up 10% or more from a year earlier in an unprecedented 81% of the 32 urban markets surveyed (right chart). However, the magnitude of the price rise varies with category of dwelling. In the main metropolitan markets the rise was much smaller for the condo segment than for single-family homes. Among the reasons for the difference is a shift of preferences away from small dwellings in city centres toward larger homes in suburbs. Source: https://housepriceindex.ca/2021/04/march2021/

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How to tell between a real CRA call and a scam

4/1/2021

(NC) Many of us have heard of scammers pretending to be from the Canada Revenue Agency. You may have even received a call or email yourself. But how do you know what you can trust? Avoiding this common scam is easier when you know what the agency will and wont do. The agency will never threaten you with immediate arrest or jail for a tax debt, and never uses text or instant messaging to communicate about taxes. It will never demand that you settle tax debt by buying gift cards or prepaid credit cards, or using cryptocurrency like Bitcoin, or offer to pay you a refund by e-transfer. Remain vigilant when you receive communication from someone claiming to be from the CRA, especially when asked for personal information such as a social insurance, credit card, bank account or passport number. If you are unsure that the person on the phone is a legitimate agency employee, ask for the agents phone number and badge number and call 1-800-959-8281 to validate the caller. If you receive a call demanding immediate payment, take time to think it over. If you believe it was legitimate, you can check the status of your account online. If you use online or telephone services, you can further protect yourself by keeping your access codes, user ID, passwords and PINs secret, and changing them frequently. Enabling email notifications for online CRA accounts will notify you by email of changes to them, warning you of potentially fraudulent activity. Finally, suspicious phone calls or messages can be reported to the Canadian Anti-Fraud Centre online or by telephone. If you think you have fallen victim to a scam, contact your local police. Find more information at canada.ca/taxes. www.newscanada.com

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Home prices accelerate in February

3/25/2021

In February the TeranetNational Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.5% from the previous month, an acceleration from the January increase after three consecutive months of slowing. The advance was led by four of the 11 constituent markets: Halifax (2.3%), Hamilton (1.1%), Vancouver (0.8%) and Quebec City (0.7%). Rises of less than the countrywide average were reported for Montreal (0.5%), Victoria (0.4%), Calgary (0.4%) and Toronto (0.4%). The index for Winnipeg was flat on the month. Down from the month before were the indexes for Edmonton (0.1%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.5%). After three months, from September to November last fall, in which all 11 markets of the composite index were up from the month before, February was a third consecutive month in which one or more markets were down on the month. The February rise is consistent with the increase in the number of home sales over the last several months reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association. For a sixth straight month, the number of sale pairs entering into the 11 metropolitan indexes was higher than a year earlier. The unsmoothed composite index, seasonally adjusted, was up 1.1% in February, suggesting that the uptrend of the published (smoothed) index could persist. Source: National Bank

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Bank of Canada will hold current level of policy rate until inflation objective is sustainably achieved, continues quantitative easing

3/12/2021

The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of percent, with the Bank Rate at percent and the deposit rate at percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program, which continues at its current pace of at least $4 billion per week. The global economy is recovering from the economic effects of COVID-19, albeit with ongoing unevenness across regions and sectors. The US economic recovery appears to be gaining momentum as virus infections decline and fiscal support boosts incomes and consumption. New fiscal stimulus will increase US consumption and output growth further. Global yield curves have steepened, largely reflecting the improved US growth outlook, but global financial conditions remain highly accommodative. Oil and other commodity prices have risen. The Canadian dollar has been relatively stable against the US dollar, but has appreciated against most other currencies. In Canada, the economy is proving to be more resilient than anticipated to the second wave of the virus and the associated containment measures. Although activity in hard-to-distance sectors continues to be held back, recent data point to continued recovery in the rest of the economy. GDP grew 9.6% in the final quarter of 2020, led by strong inventory accumulation. GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021 is now expected to be positive, rather than the contraction forecast in January. Consumers and businesses are adapting to containment measures, and housing market activity has been much stronger than expected. Improving foreign demand and higher commodity prices have also brightened the prospects for exports and business investment.

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Index growth slows further in January

2/25/2021

In January the TeranetNational Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 0.3% from the previous month. It was the third consecutive month in which the index rose less than the month before. The increase was led by five of the 11 constituent markets: Hamilton (2.0%), Montreal (1.0%), Victoria (0.6%), Halifax (0.4%) and Vancouver (0.4%). Rises of less than the countrywide average were reported for Quebec City (0.3%) and Ottawa-Gatineau (0.1%). Indexes were down from the month before in Toronto (0.1%), Calgary (0.2%), Edmonton (0.4%) and Winnipeg (0.4%). After three months September, October, November in which all 11 markets of the composite index were up from the month before, it was a second consecutive month in which one or more markets were down on the month. The price rise is consistent with the rise of home sales volume over the last several months as reported by the Canadian Real Estate Association. For a fifth straight month, the number of sale pairs[1] entering into the 11 metropolitan indexes was higher than a year earlier. The unsmoothed composite index, seasonally adjusted, was up 0.9% in January, suggesting that the published (smoothed) index could continue its uptrend.

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Canadian home sales continue their momentum to start 2021

2/19/2021

In January, Canadian home sales increased 2.0% month-on-month, building on Decembers 7.0% gain. On a year-on-year basis, they were up 35.2%. Provincially, sales were up in 8 of 10 provinces in January, with strong gains recorded in PEI (+20.5% m/m) and Alberta (+11.9%). On the flipside, a relatively steep decline was recorded in Nova Scotia (-8.3%). New listings dropped by 13.5% m/m in January. The combination of rising sales and falling new listings brought the months supply of inventory measure to under 1.9 months. The national sales-to-new listings ratio also increased to 90.7% its highest level by far. Every province was in sellers territory in December, and many of those in the eastern part of Canada had ratios over 100% (Quebec: 128.3%; New Brunswick: 116.0%; Nova Scotia: 114.3% and PEI:101.5%). This means that there were more sales than new units listed last month in these provinces. This is a rare situation, but has occurred before in the Atlantic Provinces. However, January marked a first on this front in Quebec. Elsewhere, ratios were particularly elevated in Manitoba (86.1%) and Ontario (88.6). Strong demand and historically tight conditions were reflected in prices. Indeed, Canadian average home prices surged by 4.7% m/m in January. On a year-on-year basis, they were up 22.8%, marking an acceleration from December. However, prices were up in 8 of 10 provinces during the month, with the largest gains occurring in Alberta (+8.1%) and Ontario (7.4%). Compared with the average sales price, the MLS home price index, a more like for like measure, increased 2.0% m/m. Single family home prices rose 2.6% m/m (and a robust 17.4% y/y), whereas apartment prices advanced by a smaller 0.2% m/m (and decelerated to 3.3% y/y). In Toronto, apartment prices increased 0.4% m/m, the first gain in 4 months. Key Implications Home sales picked up right where they left off to start 2021. Demand was likely given a lift by ultra-low mortgage rates, which dropped again during the month. Januarys robust gain coupled with a strong handoff into this year virtually ensures that sales will increase in the first quarter. However, with sales likely running above fundamentally-supported levels, we think some cooling in activity will take place, especially in the second half. A dwindling supply of inventories, when benchmarked against the current sales pace, could also weigh on activity moving forward. With todays data showing a solid gain in prices last month and new supply collapsing across nearly the entire country, markets were historically tight. This points to further strong price gains ahead in the near-term. Also notable was that benchmark condo prices grew for the first time in several months in Toronto. Although supply remains elevated, conditions are becoming tighter than what we saw last fall. This suggests that further gains are in store. Source: https://economics.td.com/ca-existing-home-sales

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5 ideas for families to make the most of staying home this March Break

2/5/2021

(NC) Due to current travel restrictions, families will be spending March Break at home. One way to keep your kids busy is by making personal finance a group activity. Research shows that young people who discuss money matters with their parents have higher financial knowledge and skills, which leads to stronger financial well-being in the future. Here are five ideas for simple things you can do with your kids to help them develop good money habits early: Involve your children in age-appropriate conversations about news related to economics or budgeting, and discuss how the family is responding to the unprecedented circumstances caused by the pandemic. Use the Financial Consumer Agency of Canadas online interactive budget Planner to teach your children about the importance of a financial plan. Try making a budget for your next family vacation. Encourage your child to set up a savings account. Forming good savings habits early can help kids learn how to be financially independent and avoid relying on credit cards and loans in the future. Help your child to make a plan to save for something they really want, like a new toy or video game. Show your child how to set up an automatic payment for either a subscription or their cellphone. This is an opportunity teach them about the importance of never missing a payment, which could have a negative impact on their credit report in the future. Review your childs bank account agreement with them and make sure they understand their responsibilities, such as keeping their PIN secret, even from their parents. Sharing their PIN means they may not be protected from a fraudulent transaction on their account. Understanding personal finances can have a big impact on the present and future well-being of young people. No matter what life stages your child is at, you can find unbiased and fact-based information from the Financial Consumer Agency of Canada at canada.ca/money.

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Record December caps record year for Canadian home sales

1/22/2021

Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales set another all-time record in December 2020. Home sales recorded over Canadian MLS Systems jumped by 7.2% between November and December to set another new all-time record. Seasonally adjusted activity was running at an annualized pace of 714,516 units in December 2020 the first time on record that monthly sales at seasonally adjusted annual rates have ever topped the 700,000 mark. The month-over-month increase in national sales activity from November to December was driven by gains of more than 20% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Greater Vancouver. Actual (not seasonally adjusted) sales activity posted a 47.2% y-o-y gain in December the largest year-over-year increase in monthly sales in 11 years. It was a new record for the month of December by a margin of more than 12,000 transactions. For the sixth straight month, sales activity was up in almost all Canadian housing markets compared to the same month in 2019. For 2020 as a whole, some 551,392 homes traded hands over Canadian MLS Systems a new annual record. This is an increase of 12.6% from 2019 and stood 2.3% above the previous record set back in 2016.

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Ready or Not?

10/31/2013

Deciding whether to buy a fixer-upper or a move-in ready home isn't a question of which is better, but rather which makes the most sense for you. To help you figure that out, consider the following questions: What's your budget? Move-in ready homes typically cost most that fixer-uppers, as they done need work. Plus, there can be more competition for move-in ready homes, which further drive up the price. With lower asking prices and less competition, fixer uppers can be a great way to buy into a neighborhood you otherwise couldn't afford. What is the nature of work needed? Are the problems with the fixer-upper largely cosmetic, or are they significant, such as poor plumbing or wiring? If the work needed is significant, the high cost of improvements may mean you'll end up spending more on the fixer-upper than you would have on a move-in ready home. Do you have the time and know-how to fix up a fixer-upper? If so, buying such a property can be a great way to get exactly what you want in a home while boosting its resale value. If not, you're better off buying a turnkey home, as having to hire contractors could negate any savings incurred by purchasing a fixer-upper. What are the neighborhood dynamics? Buying a home in an undesirable location of depriciating neighborhood is always a risky proposition, but this is especially true when buying a fixer-upper, as youare less likely to recoup your improvement expenses on a home in such a location or neighborhood.

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Tread Softly

8/12/2013

Out with the old, in with the new. Carpeting, that is. Are you redecorating? Or preparing the home for sale? Whatever your reasons for installing new carpeting, here's a guide to help you make the best choice for your needs. What's Your Style? There are two categories of carpeting: loop pile and cut pile. Loop styles include Berber and level loop. Both are durable, stain resistant, easy to clean, and leave little evidence of walking or vacuuming, making them great for high-traffic areas. Level loop, which is often used in commercial spaces due to its resilience, has a tough texture, while Berber is soft. Because they're looped, however, both are vulnerable to snagging. Cut-pile begins as loop pile, but the loops are cut during manufacturing. Styles include plush, Saxony, textured, and frieze. Footprints and vacuum marks easily show on plush and Saxony carpets, thanks to their velvety soft surface. Less suitable for high-traffic areas, they're often used in master bedrooms and formal living rooms. Textured and frieze are very popular choices for floors in every room of the home, as they mask imprints well and are quite durable (frieze especially so). Get Your Fiber A carpet's durability is largely determined by its fiber type. Most carpetsare made of synthetic fibers: nylon, olefin (polypropylene), polyester and acrylic, for example. Nylon is the most commonly used fiber, and no wonder - it's strong, easy to clean, and resistant to dirt, mildew, and crushing, making it great for floors that see lots of activity. Polyester is nylon's less expensive, less resilient alternative. Olefin has traditionally been used for outdoor carpeting, but is becoming more popular indoors. Relatively inexpensive, it offers excellent stain and moistureresistance, but is susceptible to crushing. Acrylic resembles wool in look and feel, but is much less expensive. It's stain and mildew resistant, and easily cleaned. Acrylic can pill, however. More commonly used in rugs than carpets, it's not recommended for high-traffic areas. A natural fiber, the luxuriousness of wool is pricey. Its advantages are that it's naturally durable, made from a sustainable material, and soil resistant due to its tightly packed fibers. However, it's high-maintanence and moisture absorbent. Carpet Color If you're selling your home, or there's a chance you'll be selling in the near future, your carpet-color choice should be dictated not by what's appealing to you, but by what's appealing to as many potential buyers as possible. And that means staying neutral: off-white, beige, or gray, for example. If you're staying put, anything goes. But do keep the following in mind: Light colors show off stains, and are harder to clean. On the upside, they help make smaller rooms appear bigger and brighter. Dark colors better hide stains but more easily show lint; they also lend large rooms a sense of warmth. Also, a color looks different depending on lighting, so be sure to get samples and look at them under a variety of different light sources.

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Finding Motivation

8/9/2013

Generally speaking, sellers come in two types: motivated and unmotivated. As a buyer, knowing the difference is important, as it will help determine how you should proceed in making an offer- or if you should make one at all. Motivated sellers are those who need to sell within a certain timeframe. Perhaps they need the equity in their home to pay off debts, hey have accepted a new job in a different city, or they have already committed to buying a new property. Whatever the reason for the urgency, the more motivated sellers are, the more likely they are to price the property at or under market prices and to accept lower offers. On the other hand, unmotivated sellers are those who are under no such pressure. They don't need to sell their home, but might under the right circumstances - the right circumstances usually being buyers willing to pay the seller's asking prices, which are often above market. Looking to profit from their home sale, unmotivated sellers often keep their property on the market for long periods of time. This is not to say you should never make an offer on a property owned by an unmotivated seller - after all, an unmotivated seller can become a motivated one. However, some unmotivated sellers will do nothing more than waste your time; this is one of the many reasons why it's important to team witha professional real estate sales representative. It's part of the real estate sales representative's job to help you avoid wasting time on sellers who aren't serious about selling and to help you focus your efforts where they're more likely to pay off.

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Juggling Act

7/24/2013

Unless you're a first-time homebuyer, moving likely means selling your current home at the same time as you purchase your next. To make this juggling act more fluid, consider the following advice. If you have the luxury of choosing what time of year to move, choose spring. There are more buyers out looking for properties at this time of year than any other. And, as a buyer yourself, spring offers the greatest selection of available properties from which to choose, increasing your chances of a simultaneous sale and purchase. Be a motivated seller. Doing this includes: pricing your home realistically to have the best chance of selling quickly, having a home inspection performed and making repairs as needed, making sure your home shows well, considering the use of a home stager, making your property easily available for showings, and being open to lower offers if they are unconditional or allow for a long or flexible closing. Be a motivated buyer. Figure out how much you can afford to spend on your next home and find out what's available in your price range: don't waste valuable time looking at unaffordable properties. Get pre-approved for a mortgage. Line up a home inspector and any other professionals whose services you may require once you're ready to make an offer. Negotiate for a smooth transition. This could mean, for example, negotiating a long close with the seller of your future home, giving you time enough to sell your current property; or negotiating a rent-back provision with your current home's buyer, whereby you rent your recently sold home until such time as you can move into your new one.

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Professional Advice From a Mortgage Professional

7/19/2013

Increased regulations in the Canadian mortgage industry are benefiting Canadian homebuyers, by giving them the confidence to use the services of a mortgage broker to finance their homes with full piece of mind. The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals (CAAMP) is dedicated to creating a network of trained mortgage professionals that every Canadian can count on for their home financing needs. Tobecome an Accredited Mortgage Professional (AMP) in Canada, one must now abide by a code of industry ethics, have worked in the industry a minimum of two years, and finished CAAMP's mandatory ethics and responsibilities course. To maintain the accreditation, each AMP must complete several hours of mandatory education per year, and continue to be a member in good standing with the Association. Canadians From coast to coast can count on Accredited Mortgage Professionals in their area for education, expert advice and guidance when dealing with the financing of their homes. For most of us, our home is our largest asset, and as such it deserves the attention of a true professional. The Canadian Association of Accredited Mortgage Professionals is helping more and more Canadians receive the best information, and the best value for their mortgage every day. As your mortgage representative, I am proud of my ability to provide you with the best financing available for your individual needs. If you, your friends or family members are looking for qualified advice on home financing, please call me. I would be happy to answer all your questions.

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Selling in The Summer

7/17/2013

Making buyers feel comfortable in your home is key to selling it, but that can be difficult when the mercury spikes. Here are a few tips for showing your home during the hot, hazy days of summer. Make sure your home's temperature is comfortable. Dont skimp on the air conditioning; if you have (quiet) fans, use them. Have a friend visit and tell you if it's too hot, or even if you've overdone it on the A/C - you don't want buyers to rush through your home without getting a good look at it because they're uncomfortable. When the temperature rises, you probably keep your window coverings closed. Ifyou're tempted to keep them closed during showings too, tohelp keep things cool, don't; darknessdoesn'tdo when selling your home. It's natural light (and plenty of it) that buyers want, as well as appealing views. So keep those window treatments open! Home-hunting is thirsty work any day of the year, but especially so during the scorching summer heat. Leave some cold bottled water out for buyers, ideally in a decorative container full of ice, along with a note on some nice stationary reading Help Yourself! It's a small gesture, but one that buyers will really appreciate (and remember!) at this time of year. Many sellers bake before showings or even simmer cinnamon sticks for a welcoming aroma. Opt for refreshing scents during the dog days of summer, and avoid the oven and stove. Dab citrus essential oil on light bulbs or combine it with water to make a spray; run citrus peels through your garbage disposal or leave them in strategically placed bowls.

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For Freshness' Sake

7/12/2013

In addition to making it easier and faster for you to find what you need, organizing your fridge is a great way to save money (you'll lose less food to spoilage and be less likely to re-purchase items you already have on hand) and to avoid illness (you'll reduce the chances of eating spoiled or contaminated food). Here are a few tips for maximizing food freshness and safety. Don't overfill your fridge: a crowded fridge is one in which the circulation of air is inhibited - as a result, your fridge will have to work more strenuously and your food will degrade more quickly. Ideally, your fridge should be no more than three quarters full, so clear it of unnecessary items regularly (e.g. before you go grocery shopping - this will help you determine what you need to buy too) and don't refrigerate items that don't need it (such as coffee, potatoes, onions, and tomatoes). Due to being opened countless times throughout the day, being relatively crowded, and having less insulation than it's walls, your fridge's door is where temperatures are least consistent and least cool. As such, this is, ironically, the worst place to keep dairy products like milk, butter, and eggs. Instead, it's ideal for the storage of condiments, many of which contain natural preservatives like vinegar and salt, and other items that don't need to be kept very cold, such as soft cheeses and herbs. If your fridge has a meat drawer, use it as intended: it's probably the coldest area in your fridge and helps prevent cross contamination by containing drips.Otherwise, store meat wherever your fridge is coldest: if that's the bottom shelf, great - no need to worry about juices dripping down onto other foods; if the top shelf is coldest, keep meat on or in something that will contain drips (e.g. a lipped plate, sealable bag, or fridge shelf liner). Sanitize your meat storage area regularly. Like meat, dairy products and other highly perishable foods should be shelved wherever your fridge is coldest; keep in mind, too, that temperatures will be more consistent at the back of your fridge than the front. If your fridge has a built-in egg storage area, don't bother with it: eggs are highly porous - in addition to keeping them fresher longer, the carton they come in helps prevent them from absorbing odors from other foods. Plus, having the best before date handy is, well, handy. Fruits and vegetables should be stored seperately in their respective crisper drawers. These drawers are the most humid part of your fridge - produce won't wilt as quickly here. Veggies like more moisture than fruits, though, so keep that in mind if you're able to control drawer humidity levels independently. Apples, however, shouldn't be kept with the rest of your produce; due to off-gassing, they can hasten the ripening of other foods - a hardy fruit, apples will do well where your fridge is coldest.

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At First Sight

7/8/2013

Your first viewing of a property isn't the time to measure doorways or haggle over whether the chandelier stays or goes. So what should a buyer be focusing on for a valuable first-showing experience? Size. How many square feet? How many bedrooms and bathrooms does it have and how big are they? Is the kitchen suitably sized for your lifestyle? Is there enough storage space for your needs? Is there room enough for you now and in the forseeable future? Floor Plan. Does the home's layout work for you? Will it work for the near future? Do you entertain frequently and want an open-concept plan? Is there enough seperation between bedrooms and more highly trafficked areas? Is the traffic configuration convenient? Are there any oddly shaped rooms? Bone Structure. Of course, a showing is no substitute for a home inspection, but you should use your first viewing to learn about the condition of the home. Look for obvious signs of water damage, pest infestations, problems with plumbing or electrical systems and structural issues. Renovations. How much repair and renovation would be needed immediately? In the future? Whatis the natureof needed repairs and renovations? If they're cosmetic, great!If not, you'll need to estimate costs and determine whether you can afford to purchase the home and do the necessary work. Your Instincts.Do you feel comfortable in the home? Isit easy to envision your family, furniture, and decor in this space? Can you imagine living your daily life in it? Can you picture doing so for years to come? Do you feel possessive and proud of it already?

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Understanding Mortgage Insurance

7/3/2013

Mortgage insurance is often misunderstood. There are two types of insurance related to mortgages. The first type - mortgage loan insurance - protects the lender in case the borrower defaults, and the second type - similar to a life insurance policy - protects the homeowner and family by making mortgage payments if the homeowner dies or becomes disabled and is unable to make payments. Mortgage loan insurance protects the lender in case you are unable to make your mortgage payments, and is therefore mandatory in Canada if you are purchasing a home with less than a 20 percent down payment. Offered by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and a few other private insurance companies, the insurance premiums for this type of insurance are typically amortized right into your mortgage, so you do not pay a lump sum upfront. Talk to us about how mortgage loan insurance can help you qualify for a new mortgage with less money down and with better terms, and how you can even savemoney on the insurance premium itself with a special CMHC discount for energy-efficient homes. The second type of mortgage insurance is mortgage payment protection for you - the homeowner - to help pay your mortgage in case of your death or disability. There are many types of mortgage payment protection insurance plans, available from any licensed insurance agent, and the monthly premiums are based on your individual situation. Please call me if you need more information about mortgage insurance, or about any other matters relating to a new or existing mortgage loan.

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Coming to Terms With Your Mortgage

6/28/2013

Mortgage holders are sometimes confused between the words term and amortization in their mortgages. The amortization of your mortgage refers to the total number of years it would take you to pay off your housing loan. The average Canadian mortgage is amortized over 25 years, although if you can afford higher monthly payments, you can shorten your amortization period and pay off your mortgage earlier. You may also choose an amortization period longer than 25 years - just be aware that you will accumulate higher interest costs over the long run. Because your financial circumstances can change substantially over the years, it's important to recognize that you may change your amortization period - to longer or shorter - throughout the life of your mortgage. The term of your mortgage is the period for which your current payment arrangement is valid. As an example, if you chose a 25-year amortization period for your home, the total mortgage amount you owed, plus interest, would be fully paid off after 25 years. During that 25-year period, if you chose to renew the terms of your mortgage every five years, your interest rate and your payments, and any pre-payment options, would be set for each five-year period. At the end of the first five-year term, your amortization would be 20 years, and you could re-negotiate both the term and the amortization at that point, depending on your current financial situation. Need clarification on the details of your mortgage? Please, never hesitate to call with your questions!

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Inspection Expectations

6/26/2013

Most homebuyers understand the importance of having a home inspection performed on any property they're considering. Fewer understand just what should - and should not - be expected of the inspection and inspector. Here's some clarification. During the inspection, the property should be examined top to bottom, including its doors, windows, stairs, walls, floors, ceilings, plumbing and electrical systems, heating and cooling systems, as well as the building's foundation and roof, among other things. Once the examination is complete, the inspector should provide you with a written report detailing the property's strengths and weaknesses. You should expect to be informed of what steps must be taken to correct any problems uncovered, what priority to assign them, the size of the repair costs, and what repair alternatives might be available to you. What the home inspector won't do is examine any areas that aren't readily visible or immediately accessible, nor will they move or destroy anything in order to do so: know that there is always a risk of concealed problems. Should their inspection reveal any defects, a home inspector won't - or at least shouldn't - offer to repair the problem fora fee, as this would be a conflict of interest. Don't expect a home instructor to tell you whether you should purchase the property or how much you should pay for it, either. A home inspection is a means of assessing the physical condition of a property. It is not a means of appraising a property's value or guaranteeing that local building codes have been complied with. Lastly, a home inspection is an opinion and not a guarantee that future failures won't occur.

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Your Mortgage: It's All About You!

6/19/2013

Of growing concern to many Canadian homebuyers is the lack of personalized service offered by the national banks. There isa perception that banks bend on rates and terms only as much as they feel they haveto in order to gain or retain your other banking business. That's where my services, as an outside mortgage representative, can be a great benefit to you. You may have noticed that, in many cases, your bank will quote you a non-discounted, posted interest rate for your mortgage. Unless you know enough about the mortgage market to negotiate, or have retained the services of a mortgage broker to do so for you, you may not be getting the best rate possible by just contacting your bank. Canadians are taking notice that quality brokers are assuming the role of referee in the morgage arena, keeping lenders across the country on their toes when it comes to securing the best interest rate and terms possible for their clients' specific needs. Only a few short years ago, less than 20 percent of Canadians used a mortgage broker to help them secure their mortgage. According to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, the national average in now 33 percent. That's a full third of Canadians who are now turning to an accredited mortgage broker for advice, guidance and placement of their mortgage. Negotiation and leverage are only two of many advantages of working with a mortgage representative. Note that brokers are not affiliated with any one lender, and we do not get paid unless you are satisfied with the terms of the mortgage we arrange for you (Note: In some complex cases a broker may charge a fee for their service). This arrangement provides you with a professional, educated and objective source working exclusively for your best interests. Call me with any questions you may have on today's mortgage market, and how it may apply to you.

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The Personal Touch

6/17/2013

The internet has been a boon to both buyers and real estate professionals. But it's no replacement for personal service. Here's why you still need a real estate representative to walk you through the home-buying process. Access to the most comprehensive - and current - information. Want to be in the know about properties not even listed on the MLS? Want the most up-to-date figures on comparable sales to help you determine your offer price? Want insight into the local market? There's no more immediate source of information than your real estate sales representative. Negotiating is a skill. Having a real estate sales representative negotiate on a buyer's behalf allows for the best possible deal, without ruffling the seller's feathers. And knowing how to respond to a rejected offer is just one important way a real estate professional can help a seller. Contracts can be confusing. They're there to protect you and to provide an out if specified conditions aren't met - provided the contract has been properly drawn up. As the language can be confusing, and the legal ramifications serious, most people feel contracts are an aspect of home buying best left to experienced professionals. It's your real estate sales representative's job to look out for your best interests. Real estate licensees must adhere to certain laws and ethical codes; if they don't, there are repercussions. Many people prefer the security of having someone accountable on their side, and like knowing they're protected should they run up against an unscrupulous party.

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It's All About Teamwork!

6/14/2013

Canadian consumers recognize that, between our healthy real estate market and easy access to affordable mortgages, it's a great time to invest in property. Buying or selling a home, however, involves many functions that can overwhelm even the most organized of us. To make the whole process less stressful, it's important to choose a support network of professionals to help you through the technical parts of home shopping. Included on your team should be: A Professional Real Estate Sales Representative. The benefits of having professional representation are priceless when it comes to knowing the market, and how to buy and sell your properties quickly and efficiently. A Lawyer. A real estate lawyer or notary protects your legal interests and will review all your paperwork before you sign. Find one early, so that he or she can evaluate any offers you may want to make before you put in your formal offer. A Lender. Before you even start house-hunting, let's sit down and review your financing needs. You will most likely benefit from a pre-approved mortgage, which will not only allow you to focus directly on the homes you know you can afford, but also makes your offer more appealing to a seller who is looking for a quick and smooth transaction. A pre-approved mortgage enables you to plan your home-buying and household budget up front, giving you and organized approach. Your pre-approved mortgage rate will be guaranteed for a set period of time. If interest rates rise during that time, you need not worry as your rate is set at the level you agreed to. If the rate falls before the mortgage funds are advanced, you will automatically receive the lowest rate available. For more tips on smooth home transactions, please call me at any time for a no-obligation discussion.

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Silence is Golden

6/13/2013

Many a seller has lost money on their home sale, or even lost the sale altogether, because they said the wrong thing to buyers. Don't let it happen to you - below, learn what not to say. Don't disclose why you're selling - you might inadvertently help buyers decide they don't want to purchase your home for the very reason you want to sell it. Alternatively, if buyers discover you're selling because you need to (whether due to financial reasons or a job transfer, for example), you'll be relinquishing the upper hand you want to have during negotiations. You also risk giving buyers the upper hand if you reveal that your property hasn't had a lot of people through to view it or that it hasn't generated many offers. Because you want your house to appear desirable, keep this kind of information to yourself. Similarly, keep mum about the lowest price you'd be willing to settle for. Also you may think your being helpful by volunteering information about your neighbors and neighborhood, but what you find appealing the buyers might find off-putting. For instance, saying, This is a mature neighborhood - mostly retirees, might make buyers with children think twice. This is especially true of matters pertaining to religion and politics. As you can see, there are many ways even the best-intentioned seller can succumb to foot-in-mouth disease. That's why it's beneficial for you to be absent during your home's showings, and to let your real-estate sales representative handle the buyers.

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How Much?

6/11/2013

Two words you'll find yourself asking time and time again when arranging a new mortgage or thinking about refinancing are, How much? How much money will I need? Financing the mortgage on a new property is just part of the cost. Remember to budget into your loan request: Closing costs, moving costs and renovation costs. How much will it cost me? Understanding the different types of loans and their associated interest rates is just the start. There are many additional factors that can come into play, including your credit score, your source of financing, type of mortgage, length of mortgage, location, lender's fees, income source, employment history and amount of down payment. How much time will it take? Having the proper documentation prepared ahead of time can help expedite the loan process when seeking a new mortgage or arranging mortgage refinancing. In addition, it's always faster and easier to close on a home purchase when the buyer has a pre-approved mortgage in-hand. Before you even start thinking through the details of a loan, you'll want to get some advice from an experienced and qualified mortgage broker. Obtaining the best mortgage for your needs involves careful shopping, comparing and negotiating. Whether you're looking for home financing, refinancing, debt consolidation or a home equity loan, The Financial Forum would be happy to assist you in the various aspects of loan options. In addition, if your friends, family members, neighbors or colleagues would like to discuss their own loan options, please send them our way - We'd be happy to talk with them, too!

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Reality Reality

6/7/2013

Real estate is one of those professions people have a lot of preconceived notions about. Below are some commonly held myths - and their realities - about working with real-estate sales representatives. I shouldn't tell my representative how much I dislike this property; I might offend them. Actually, your honest feedback about the homes you and your representative view - even if it's negative - is not only welcome, it's valued. The more honest you are, the more time and energy you will save both you and your representative. If I work with multiple real-estate reps, I'll find my next home that much faster. Most real-estate representatives use the same MLS and, as such, would likely provide you with the same listings. Plus, when you work with multiple representatives, you may miss out on the high level of service you can expect when loyal to one. I don't need a representative; I'm buying brand new. Remember, the builder's onsite salespeople work for the builder - it's the builder's best interests th're concerned with, not yours. A real-estate sales representative can be valuable to you in modifying the builder's contract for your protection, negotiating pricing and upgrades, protecting you against builder's liens, and more. I'll save money by not hiring a real-estate sales representative to help me with my next home purchase. On the contrary, with representation you're less likely too overpay for a home, as real-estate sales reps have access to information (known as comparables) that help them determine what you should be paying for a property, and they are experts at negotiating the best deal.

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Justifying Your Price

6/4/2013

Ideally, you'd never have to haggle over your selling price. While there's not much you can do to prevent buyers from offering less than you're asking, there are some things you can do to help jusify your asking price. Have a home inspection done before your property goes on the market. A documented, impartial report verifying that your home is in good condition helps substantiate a higher listing price. If the report reveals any defects, disclosing them up front via a seller's inspection helps justify your price given your home's current condition, minimizing opportunities for prospective buyers to negotiate down. Many buyers, however, want - and are willing to pay for -homes that are move-in ready. So if you do ensure that any defects revealed by the report get addressed prior to listing, and if you take care of all those little fixes you've been putting off - the light switches that don't work, the missing cabinetry hardware, the toilet whose handle you have to jiggle - you can justify a higher asking price. Making your home move-in ready, so as to substantiate your asking price, also means giving it a fresh coat of paint in a neutral shade, replacing your flooring as needed, again in a neutral tone, and cleaning it until it shines. If you want to go the extra mile, have your home professionally staged. Staging can help justify your asking price by distinguishing your property from others on the market, and positioning your home more favorably in the minds of prospective buyers by appealing to their emotions and creating an environment in which they can picture themselves living.

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Ask Yourself

5/21/2013

You want to sell your home. Do you list with a real-estate sales representative or sell it yourself? The latter may be tempting, especially during such difficult economic times. But before you decide to go solo, ask yourself the following questions. Do you have the time, energy and money to devote to marketing your home? More than just putting up a For Sale sign, effectively marketing a property involves creating persuasive newspaper ads, using the Multiple Listing Service (a tool not available to sellers working without a real-estate sales representative), and much more. Are you a skilled negotiator? Buyers often low-ball owners selling their own homes thinking they'll take less since they're not paying anyone commission. Sales sometimes grind to a halt because owners take offense to criticisms of their property. How would you handle such scenarios? Would you be able to stay objective? Do you have sufficient legal and financial knowledge to successfully see the sale through? If you're unable to properly complete an offer to purchase, prepare closing documents or offer financing options, the sale may fall through or, worse, you could wind up in a lawsuit. Real-estate law is complex and ever evolving, which is why we recommend you consult with real estate lawyers, accountants and other professionals. Do you have access to all the information needed to assess your home's market value: familiarity with the target market, knowledge of which features the target market values, selling prices of comparable homes? If not, like many do-it-yourselfers, you'll likely overprice, which is the top reason homes for sale by owner don't sell. When you consider the questions above - and your answers - can you afford not to list with a real-estate sales representative?

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Talk to The Boss!

5/21/2013

Being self-employed means being your own boss and doing things your way - certainly an empowering feeling. However, along with the benefits of being self-employed come a few aggravations as well, one of them being the process of acquiring a personal mortgage. While using a mortgage broker certainly improves your chances of securing the best mortgage product at the best terms, you still need to know what you need to prepare a successful mortgage request. Here are some points to think about. Plan Ahead. Don't wait until you find your dream house to search around for the documentation you'll need to apply for a mortgage. Check your credit score, know where your business license is, gather two to three years of tax returns, prepare a profit-and-loss statement, organize your bank statements and get your financial papers in order. A broker can help you plan ahead - even by a year or two - for optimum odds of a favourable mortgage. Show as Much Income as Possible. Remember that in many cases, by the time self -employed people claim all their tax deductions, their income can look frighteningly low to a lender, distracting the perception of how likely you are to be able to pay back the loan. Talk to your accountant about how to show as much income as possible. Also ask a mortgage broker about mortgage products that allow you to simply state your income, as long as you have good credit, a good down payment and have been in business at least 24 months. Make Sure You Shop Around. Here's where a mortgage broker can be your best friend. Mortgage Brokers take the time that you can't afford to take away from your business, to shop around for the best mortgage for you.

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Buy Green

5/17/2013

When buying a home, you naturally consider your decision's impact on your lifestyle and finances. But do you think about its impact on the environment? To make your next home purchase a little greener, follow these tips. When it's time to begin your home hunt, think less is more; the smaller the home the more environmentally friendly it is. That's because fewer resources have been consumed in constructing it, less energy is required to heat, cool, light and otherwise run it, less water is needed to maintain its landscaping, and you won't need to buy as much stuff in order to fill it. Choose your location wisely. The closer your home to your workplace, public transit, and those amenities most essential to you, the less driving you'll need to do, which is good news for both the environment and your bank account. Also, avoid properties that were built on environmentally sensitive land; infill developments are the greener choice, as they make use of land that's already been developed. Consider, too, the eco-friendliness of the products and materials that have gone into the home's finishing. For instance, are the appliances ENERGY STAR rated? Are the toilets water-conserving low-flow models? Are the floors made of bamboo, cork or linoleum? Are the countertops made from a recycled material like glass? Was it painted with low- or no-VOC paint? Those wishing to take their commitment to the green lifestyle a step further may wish to purchase a property that was constructed with an eye toward minimizing environmental impact, such as a property that features energy-efficient heating and cooling systems or one that harnesses the power of solar energy.

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What's The Difference?

5/16/2013

Over half of prospective homebuyers polled in a recent Ipsos survey didn't understand the difference between a home inspection and a home appraisal. Let's clear up any confusion right now. The purpose of a home inspection is to give the client (whether buyer or seller) a deeper understanding of a property's physical condition. Most home inspections are commissioned by buyers, so that they may make a more informed decision about their purchase. It's increasingly common, however, for sellers to commission inspections, so that they may have an opportunity to address defects prior to listing, and so, price their properties more accurately. The inspector examines the property (including its foundation, roof, ceilings, walls, windows, doors, floors, basement, and heating/cooling, plumbing and electrical systems), then gives the client feedback, pointing out the property's strengths, the work needed to keep it in good condition, and any problems needing repair. The purpose of a home appraisal, on the other hand, is to assess a property's value, as opposed to its condition. Home appraisals are commissioned by lenders, prior to approving a mortgage, in order to ensure the loan amount doesn't exceed the home's value and that the lender could reasonably recoup their loss by reselling the property should the buyer default. Performed by certified appraisers (typically chosen by the lender and paid for by the borrowers as part of their closing costs), appraisals can take into consideration comparable sales, the property's condition and location, and local market conditions. Also included in the appraisal report can be an estimate of the time it would take for the property to sell.

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Falling Into Place

5/14/2013

A home with a place for everything and everything in its place can save time, stress and money - and boost your home's appeal should you decide to sell it. What follows is a game plan to help you get, and keep, your home organized. The prospect of organizing your home can be daunting. To make the task more manageable and increase your odds of success, break it down - focus on one space at a time. That space may be as small as a desk or as big as an entire room. Whatever area you choose, stick with it until it's done. Before you can actually get to organizing, you need to purge your chosen space of items that don't belong there. If you don't love it, need it or haven't used it fora year, throw it out or give it away; chances are it won't be missed. Keep a box handy for items that should be kept but make more sense in a different space; later, you can distribute the contents to areas where the items rightfully belong, so that they can be incorporated into your organizational scheme for that space. After purging, you'll no doubt find yourself with extra room that you weren't even aware you had. Now it's time to organize, which means using the space to designate a spot for each of the items that belong there, a spot where they will always be stored when not in use.As you find a home for your things, group similar items together for convenience and place frequently used items where they can be quickly and easily accessed. If you find that you still don't have enough room to store everything that belongs in the space you're working on, you can always purchase some creative storage solutions. Depending on the area you're organizing, the remedy might be more shelving to take advantage of vertical space, under-bed totes to maximize space that typically goes unused or decorative storage boxes that can be seamlessly incorporated into your decor. Now that all of your things have a permanent home, the trick to keeping organized is making sure they stay there. Ideally, get into the habit of replacing items immediately after you've finished with them. This may be challenging at first, but after a while it should become routine. If that strategy doesn't work for you, use time that likely gets wasted while waiting for the oven to heat up or talking on the phone, for example, to pick things up and return them to their home. Or dedicate 10 minutes before bed each night to round up out-of-place items and put them away. Once picking up and putting away becomes a second nature, maintaining an organized home is easy!

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Kitchen Aid

5/14/2013

The kitchen is the epicenter of your home while you live there, and the most crucial room of your home when it's for sale. If your kitchen needs a new look, you needn't worry about breaking the bank. There are plenty of ways to give it a makeover without spending a fortune. It's The Little Things New hardware is about the cheapest, easiest way to update your kitchen - especially if you opt for unfinished wooden hardware and do the finishing yourself; if you prefer contemporary to customizable, go for chrome or stainless steel hardware. You can pick up a high-quality faucet for around $200, and replace the overhead fixture and/or add under-cabinet lighting for a relatively small cost. Just be sure your new hardware and fixtures match (or at least complement) each other. Goodbye Harvest Gold If your appliances work fine, but could use a cosmetic facelift, you have a few options. You can order a front panel and trim kit from the manufacturer or a refacing company. Applying a vinyl film or magnetic cover isa great way to inject some personality into your kitchen - they come in a variety of colors, themes, and materials (e.g., chalkboard, whiteboard, or stainless-steel panels). Or there's also appliance paint, available in brush-on and spray-on varieties and found at home improvement and paint stores. Make a Splash A new backsplash doesn't have to cost more than a can of paint; a chalkboard, whiteboard, or magnetic backsplash adds some whimsy (and some functionality) to your kitchen. Other options include laminate; porcelain, ceramic, or glass tile; sheet glass; and mirror, ideal in smaller kitchens. If your kitchen's size is enough to make doing so affordable, you could splurge on natural stone (e.g. slate or granite) or metal tiles (e.g. stainless steel or copper). Ground Level Natural stone, tile, and hardwood floors are great in terms of resale value, but pricey. While those options may not be out of reach if your kitchen is on the small side, if you have a budget and a big kitchen, laminate or vinyl floors are your best bet. Laminate flooring can replicate the look of stone or wood and is relatively easy to install, thanks to its snap-together, tongue-and-groove design. Vinyl flooring, the most economical choice, comes in two types: sheet and tile; and though you can install both types yourself, vinyl tiles are easier to work with. Blow the Doors Off If your cabinets are in sound shape but look dated, you can reface them with new doors and drawer fronts, then paint the rest of the cabinets to match. It's less expensive than refinishing cabinets, sanding and/or stripping, and then painting or staining them. If you don't like the style of your cabinets, however, refinishing them doesn't make much sense. If you really want to change things up, consider removing some cabinet doors altogether or replacing door panels with clear or frosted glass.

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Who Do Mortgage Brokers Work For?

5/10/2013

There are two top questions mortgage brokers are asked: Do you work for a particular bank? How much does your service cost? The short answers are that mortgage brokers are not employed by a particular bank - they work for you, the borrower - and in most cases it won't cost you a dime! Mortgage brokers represent borrowers in the quest to find the best loan at the best rate. Unlike a bank employee, or a broker who is tied to a bank, mortgage brokers are not committed to any financial institution. This offers you the advantage of having someone peruse the entire loans market to compare the hundreds of mortgage products available, and assess their features, benefits, terms and rates to find the one that best fits your situation. Because loan procurement is a mortgage broker's main function, brokers are acutely aware of new loan products that enter the market on a daily basis - particularly specialized products for clients with specific needs. This could include self-employed borrowers, first-time borrowers or borrowers looking for a minimum down payment allowance. So, if you're not paying the broker to find you the best mortgage product for your needs, how do they earn their money? Well, once you choose your new loan, the lender usually pays the broker a direct commission. This is preferable for the lender as, even with the commission, they still save on their overhead compared to paying a full-time employee. You expect your bank to give you their best rate and product, but they can only negotiate with the products they offer. The best product for your needs might not exist at your bank. Talk about your loan requirements with a mortgage broker, and find the lender that accomodates your specific needs.

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Hiring a Home Stager

5/10/2013

If you're considering selling your home, you might also be thinking about having it professionally staged. If you've never had to hire a home stager before, you'll want to read these tips: Home staging is an industry for which official accreditation standards don't yet exist. As such, your screening of candidates is critical. Just as you would if hiring an interior designer or contractor, ask potential home stagers for refernces - and check them. If you can't tour homes the candidate has staged, at least ask to see a portfolio of before-and-after photos. Ask for an estimate. In fact, get a few estimates, as pricing in this industry varies significantly. Be sure you understand and are comfortable with how the home stager charges for their services. Some charge by the hour, while some charge a flat fee for the entire job. Still others charge based on square footage or number of rooms. Depending on the scale of the job, home staging can cost anywhere from hundreds to thousands of dollars. A stager can orchestrate the entire moving process for you, from cleaning and packaging, to painting and removing furniture. Some will even rent furniture in order to achieve a desired effect, which will drive up costs. If you're willing to do the work yourself, however, a home stager may simply be able to provide you with a detailed analysis of what needs to be done in order to make your home appealing to the broadest spectrum of buyers. Such a to-do list could cost as little as a couple hundred dollars, making home staging a more viable option for sellers.

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A Matter of Principle

5/9/2013

If you think a well-designed room just happens, think again. As professional interior designers well know, any successful decor is dependent on the five principles of design: balance, focal points, proportion and scale, rhythm, and unity. Below is an introduction to each. Balance Balance refers to the distribution of visual weight in a room. There are three different types of balance: symmetrical, asymmetrical and radial. Symmetrical balance involves repeating the same objects on either side of an axis, a hallmark of formal interiors. Asymmetrical balance is characterized by a lack of focal point or mirroring, and lends rooms a more casual feel. Radial balance refers to arrangements where elements radiate around a focal point. Focal Points Every well-designed room features a focal point, a point of emphasis that draws the eye and gives it a place to rest. That point of emphasis could be a work of art, a piece of furniture, or an architectural detail such as a fireplace or window. Whatever it is, your focal point should be immediately apparent upon entering the room. Depending on its size, a well-designed room can incorporate more than one focal point; in fact, large spaces may need multiple points of emphasis. Proportion and Scale These refer to the shape and size of objects. Proportion has to do with how the elements within a room relate to the room as a whole, while scale refers to how the elements in a room relate to one another in terms of size. For instance, small delicate pieces of furniture in a large room would make for an ill-proportioned interior, while a heavy lamp on a small end table would be out of scale. Ideally, all the elements in a room should be proportionate to each other as well as to the room itself. Rhythm Rhythm refers to how the eye moves about a room. There are four ways to use rhythm in decor: repetition, progression, transition and contrast. Repetition involves repeating the same element - be it a pattern, color or line - throughout the space. Progression means increasing or decreasing one or more of an element'squalities, like it's color or size. Contrast results from combining opposing elements, such as black pillows on a white couch. Transition is less obvious, and serves naturally to lead the eye from one area to another, such as through an arched entry. Unity An interior has unity when all of the elements and principles of interior design combine to create a pleasing area and lend spaces a sense of order. In addition to establishing unity within each room of your home, your home should be well designed as a whole, its rooms, halls and stairways all part of one larger space. However, too much unity is bland, while too little is disorienting. Striking just the right balance is tricky, which is why so many call in a professional.

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The Fast Track

5/9/2013

There's no guarantee how long it'll take to process your mortgage application, but there are things you can do to help ensure a smoother, quicker process. First, be sure of your credit worthiness: request a copy of your credit report. It will likely be blemish-free, but never discount the possibility that it could contain errors: closed charge accounts may show up as available credit, repaid loans could appear outstanding, or you may discover you've been a victim of identity theft. Address any mistakes now so they don't slow or altogether stop your application process later. Next, gather documents to support the claims you'll be making on your application. Include things like listing and purchase agreements, home appraisals, credit reports, pay stubs, income-tax returns, letters from employers, bank statements, lists of assets and liabilities, and proof of income from sources like rental properties, pensions, alimony, or child support. The more information you provide, the faster the lender can make a decision. When filling out your loan application, do so honestly and accurately. Make sure all information is correct and legible and no questions have been missed. Once you've filed your application, make sure you can be easily reached should your lender require any further information or paperwork from you - and be able to respond quickly to such needs. Now is probably not the time to go on vacation. Lastly, check in - occasionally - with your lender to see how your approval is coming along. This will also lessen its chances of getting lost in the shuffle. While many homebuyers wait until they find the perfect property before applying for a mortgage, you may want to consider having a pre-approved mortgage in hand before even starting your new home search. This gives you the best idea of what you can afford, and also gives you the edge when negotiating with a seller who is looking for a swift closing.

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Pre-Qualification vs. Pre-Approval: What's the Difference?

5/7/2013

Mortgage brokers often tell potential borrowers how important it is to have all their paperwork in order before they even start hunting for a new home. This helps buyers have an idea of the price range they can afford, and expedites the buying process once they find their ideal new home. But what's the difference between pre-qualifying for a property and being pre-approved for its purchase? In a nutshell, pre-qualification is an informal way to find out approximately how much you should be able to borrow. It's a no-obligation conversation, during which you would disclose how much you make, how much you owe and how much you have (your assets). With this information, we would arrive at a ballpark figure approximating the mortgage amount for which you would qualify. Armed with this figure, you and your real estate representative can more confidently search for an appropriate property. Pre-Approval is a more formal commitment from a lender - an actual assurance to lend you a certain amount - following a more involved application process.You would need to complete an official mortgage application and present evidence of your financial status. Once the lender analyzes this information and does thorough background and credit rating checks, they will conditionally approve you for a specific mortgage amount. Approaching a seller with this document in-hand gives you a firm advantage over another potential purchaser - depending on the property, the seller will know that delays contingent on your obtaining financing are unlikely.

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Your Mortgage: Take it, or Leave it?

5/3/2013

Are you aware that, when you move, you may be able to take your existing mortgage with you? A mortgage representative can help you find the clause in your mortgage that confirms your options. If your mortgage is portable, meaning that you can move it to your new property, you can sit down with your mortgage representative and discuss whether this makes sense in your situation. If the current mortgage rates are higher than what you are currently locked in for, then a mortgage representative can help you transfer the interest rate and all the existing terms and conditions of your existing mortgage to your new property, subject to a credit review and property appraisal when you buy your new home. Another benefit of porting your mortgage is that you will automatically avoid any prepayment charges for breaking your mortgage early. Note that there is no fee for using the portability option, although you would still have to pay legal fees to register the mortgage on your new home. If you don't want to take your mortgage with you, you might be able to offer it to the prospective buyer of your current property as an assumable mortgage. If the rate and terms are favourable, this offer may provide an extra incentive for a buyer to make his or her decision. Again, this is an optionyou would need to consider carefully before presenting it for consideration. Please call a mortgage representative for more information on these interesting mortgage options. They have access to up-to-date information on financing choices to answer whatever loan questions you have.

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Feeling Rejected

5/2/2013

You've found your next dream home and excitedly made an offer on it. But the seller has rejected your offer. So where do you go from here? Having your offer rejected can be disheartening, but it's important to avoid letting your emotions rule. A rejected offer isn't necessarily the end of the road, however, your refusal to pursue a negotiation because you feel offended probably will be. If a seller rejects your offer but presents you with a counter offer, they are telling you they are interested in your offer but not completely satisfied with one or more of your terms. Carefully review the seller's counteroffer with your agent and decide if you're able and willing to accept it as is, or presenta counteroffer of your own. Note that price is, most often, the reason sellers reject offers. Before accepting or making a counteroffer with a higher price, be sure you're financially equipped to do so, which may involve securing additional mortgage financing. Changes in other terms, like closing dates or repairs, might also require you to adapt your plans. Be prepared before accepting or making another offer. If the seller rejects your offer outright without making a counteroffer, discuss with your agent the reason why your offer wasn't accepted. The problem simply may be a misunderstanding on the seller's behalf, in which case your offer could be back on the table and reconsidered. If the seller's reason for rejecting your offer is more than a simple misunderstanding, you need to discuss with your agent whether you're capable of and willing to submit a revised offer to the seller.

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One-Stop Shopping

4/30/2013

There are hundreds of mortgage products available in today's marketplace, from an overwhelming number of mortgage providers. How do you find the product that's just right for you? Start by making one easy phone call to your mortgage broker. The job of a mortgage broker is to do the legwork for our clients in order to find the mortgage product or loan strategy that meets your specific needs, wants and financial capabilities. Because we have no vested interest with any particular mortgage lender, you can rely on our impartial advice regarding your many loan options. While having a qualified mortgage broker compare all the products on the market for you at no cost is a great service, another important benefit of using a mortgage broker to shop around for you is that your credit score won't be threatened, as you'll only need one credit check. Save time, effort, your credit rating and possibly money too, by calling today for a review of your current or future mortgage needs. Remember, in most cases there is no cost to you for our services, as the final lender pays our fees. As fees tend to be similar, there isn't any reason or incentive for us to recommend one lender over another - we will present only the options that are in your best interest. Please call for a mortgage information update today!

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What's Up? Not Interest Rates!

4/22/2013

Back in January of this year, the Bank of Canada announced that it would be keeping its key policy interest rate where it's been for more than two years - at one percent. This is positive news for would-be buyers in today's real estate market, especially in the midst of our active real estate season. While the continued low interest rates may partially reflect a not-so-positive recognition that Canadian economic growth slowed more abruptly in the second half of 2012 than was previously anticipated, it is a silver lining for both first-time buyers contemplating buying real estate and current homeowners thinking about moving up in the market. What it is not, encouragingly, is a signal that the housing market is in trouble. In fact, Gregory Klump, Chief Economist with CREA, says history supports the notion that some sort of major event is needed to create a housing market collapse. In the late 1980s, it was a case of a spike in the interest rates, in late 2008 and early 2009 it was a massive layoff, said Mr. Klump. You need a massive and extended economic shock and none of that is in the forecast. Of course, nobody definitely knows which direction our real estate market is heading towards, but we do know that if you are planning on moving to a larger home and need additional funds, it makes sense to investigate today's low mortgage rates. Please call today for a personal, no-obligation review of your own borrowing needs!

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Faux Finishes

3/18/2013

Paint is the most versatile tool homeowners have for changing the look of a room, piece of furniture or accessory. To help you push the possibilites of paint even further, below are introductions to four faux finishes that should spark your creativity. Sponging Ideal for novices, sponging is the easiest of faux-finishing techniques. Mistakes are easily corrected, supplies are inexpensive and cleanup is easy, making sponging ideal in homes with children. The effect of sponging is a textured, mottled look, which is achieved by applying differing shades of paint, using a damp sponge, over top of a solid base coat. A natural sea sponge is essential, as synthetic sponges create too structed a pattern. This technique works best on walls, but can also be used on furniture. As an added bonus, sponging is helpful in camouflaging surface imperfections, where regular paint jobs emphasize them. Ragging Like sponging, ragging requires relatively little artistic skill and can be easily retouched should you make a mistake during application or should your child decide to do a little painting of his or her own. The ragging technique produces a soft appearance that mimics fabric. This effect is created by applying a solid base coat, then using a rag to apply a glaze color on top. Your rag can be almost anything: a t-shirt, plastic bags, lace, chamois...Note that different materials create different effects. Ragging is a technique most commonly used on walls, but can be applied to furniture. Similar to sponging, ragging is a forgiving finish, helpful in hiding surface imperfections. Stippling A subtler effect than sponging or ragging, strippling requires a finer touch and is slightly more difficult to master. To make the process easier, work as a team: one person to apply the glaze, the other to stipple it. Stippling results in a fine, grainy appearance similar to that of suede. The effect is achieved by applying a solid base coat, then using a stippling brush, whose stiff bristles are specifically designed for this application, to stab on a glaze coat of a slightly different shade. This technique is a great treatment for walls, trim, furniture and accessories. Unlike sponging and ragging, which mask imperfections, stippling emphasizes flaws. Smooth, well-prepared surfaces are a must. Marbling This technique requires greater skill and patience than those listed above, but the effect - an elegant, luxurious look - is well worth the time and effort, especially when you weigh the cost of marbling against paying for the real thing. Marbling is a process that involves replicating the patterns and hues of real marble by applying layers of tinted glaze on top of a base coat. The veined look that characterizes many marbles is usually achieved with the help of a long feather or small, artist's paintbrush. Marbling lends itself well to a multitude of applications: table tops, fireplace surrounds, floors, moldings and much more. A surface free of imperfections is paramount for a high-quality finish.

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Terms Over Price

2/19/2013

Money isn't everything - even when it comes to real estate. While price is often the bottom line for sellers, sometimes it's another term of your offer that can make your bid the winning one. After price, the closing date tends to be the most frequently negotiated term of an offer. Perhaps the seller requires a quick close due to a job transfer or a scheduled closing date on another home. Maybe the seller is looking for a long closing, allowing them time to find their next property. Whatever the circumstances, your ability to accomadate the seller's closing date may be just what tips the scales in your favor. A buyer will often make their offer conditional upon their ability to obtain a specific amount and type of financing, or upon selling their current home by a certain date. If the buyer can't arrange that financing or sell their home by the specified date, their offer becomes null and void. Such offers are risky for sellers. If you can make an offer free of such conditions, thus eliminiating the risk for the seller, it may win you the home - even if your price is lower than that of a competing offer. For some sellers, it may be your willingness to waive another common offer contingency - the home inspection - that clinches the deal. Foregoing an inspection and agreeing to buy the property for better or for worse is risky, but some buyers are willing to assume that risk if that's what it takes to seal the deal.

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A New, Sustainable Start

1/22/2013

If you don't yet have a New Year's resolution of your own, here's one to consider: making your home a more environmentally sustainable place to live - and living a more sustainable life in it. Here are some tips to help you do just that, starting today and into 2013. Be discerning about the products you bring into your home and where they come from. Become a locavore - buy locally produced food at farmers' markets, for example. Before buying something for your home, be it a cleaning product or decorative accessory, ask yourself a few questions: Does this product have minimal packaging? Is it made from naturally sourced ingredients? Is it made from sustainable/eco-friendly materials? Conserve water. Install low-flow showerheads, faucet aerators, and toilet tank water-displacement devices. Don't use use your toilet as an ashtray or garbage can. Don't let water run excessively while rinsing dishes or vegetables, brushing teeth, or shaving. Don't let clean water escape down the drain while waiting for it to warm - collect it for watering plants, for example. Turn your shower off while you lather up. Run your dishwasher and washing machine only when fully loaded. Conserve energy. Swap incandescent light bulbs for compact fluorescent ones. Prevent phantom power loss: use smart power strips, which automatically cut power completely to devices that are off. Install a programmable thermostat so you can automatically adjust your home's temperature while you're sleeping and at work, for example. Run your dishwasher and do laundry during off-peak hours. Use cold water instead of hot whenever possible (e.g. when washing clothes). Go paperless. Register to receive your bills and bank statements online, and pay bills by phone or Internet; many companies now charge a fee to send you paper, so you might save money every month by going electronic too. Think about how you can replace paper (and save money in the process!) in all rooms of your home - for example, use washcloths and fabric napkins instead of paper towels and napkins. Compost your yard and/or kitchen waste. Whether you have a big compost bin in your backyard, a worm bin (also known as a vermicomposter) on your balcony or patio, a motorized under-sink composter,a decorative countertop crock-style composter with replaceable carbon filter, or you simply collect your kitchen scraps in freezer bags and drop them off when you visit your local farmers' market, there's a way to compost no matter what type of home you live in. Be conscientious about how you rid your home of stuff you no longer want. Divert as much as you can away from landfills by recycling and donating reusable items to charitable organizations. From paint to old cell phones, packing peanuts to motor oil, you'd be surprised to learn just how much of your trash can be turned into someone else's treasure just by doing a little homework.

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That Secure Feeling

1/11/2013

Selling means opening your home up to strangers - which can leave you feeling vulnerable when it comes to security. Safeguarding valuables is one way to make your home safer while it's for sale; hiring a real estate sales representative is another. Your real estate representative acts as a gatekeeper of sorts - someone prospective buyers have to go through if they want to view your home. As a part of their services, your rep pre-screens potential buyers by inquiring about their identities and reasons for wanting to see your property. Common inquiries inlude: Has the buyer been pre-approved for financing? Do they live in the area? Why are they buying? What interests them about the property? Such questions are meant to ensure buyers aren't going to waste your time, or your real estate rep's - in other words, to ensure anyone entering your home is there because they're serious about buying, and not for other reasons, providing peace of mind for sellers. In hosting showings, your real estate sales representative is just as concerned as you are about safety, and cautious about who's entering your home. This is why real estate reps often take precautions such as requiring prospective buyers to sign a guest register with their name, address, and phone number upon entering your home, and/or brining a colleague along to provide added supervision during open houses - precautions you can request if you're concerned about security.

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A New Year, A Fresh Start

1/3/2013

January is a great tie to organize your budget, so make THIS the year you enjoy being financially in control! To establish a realistic household budget, start by gathering all your past financial information. Document your expenses - every single one! It's easy to tally your regular monthly bills - household expenses, car payments, insurance installments and so forth, but figuring out your miscellaneous expenses takes a little more effort. Keep track of all your expenses over the next three months. A simple software program can make this easier. You'll be suprised how those quick trips to the supermarket - on top of your weekly shopping trips - add up. Jot down how much you spend on car repairs, gifts, entertainment and vacations (including out-of-pocket cash), what you spend for coffee, newspapers, and lunch. Of course, check your credit card situation too. How much do you pay each month, and what interest rate? We can discuss ways you can lessen monthly payments and find an additional source of cash by consolidating your credit cards, or even look into a home equity loan to allow you to pay a lower interest rate. Please call if you need help clarifying your home loan options!

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Mortgage Reduction Resolutions for 2013

1/2/2013

As a homeowner, one of your New Year's resolutions may include a goal to stabilize your financial position in 2013. Why not take the first step toward fulfilling that goal by calling your mortgage broker to review the status of your current mortgage, and see how you can best plan for the future? Despite regional ups and downs, the forecast for Canada's real estate market is still positive. Interest rates continue to remain at historically low levels, and in fact have fallen by half since 2007. While it's easy to get caught up with the excitement of lower rates today than what you might have been paying a few years ago, remember that you can make the most of today's conditions by finding out how you may be able to capitalize on the lower rates to pay off your home sooner. Do you qualify for a lower mortgage rate than what you are currently paying? If so, consider keeping your payments the same, even though a lower interest rate would lower your monthly obligation. This will result in more money being directed toward your principal, a shorter term, and substantially less interest paid by the end of your term. Please call today for a no-obligation update on the newest mortgage products, and a discussion on the best options available to finance your home in today's exciting and ever-changing real estate market.

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The Nose Knows

12/13/2012

Few things sour prospective buyers faster than offensive odors. Below are the four most common offenders, and tips for ridding your home of them. Pets: Use baking soda or a urine-neutralizing product containing enzymes on accident sites. For a deeper carpet cleaning, hire a professional (be sure to let them know pet odor is the problem). Also, keep pets' toys, bowls, bedding and litter boxes clean. And pets should get regular baths and, ideally, not be home when prospective buyers are viewing your property. Cigarettes: Tar deposits are very hard to remove from fabrics, so, have drapes, upholstery and carpeting professionally cleaned. Also, clean hard surfaces with vinegar, excellent at demolishing those deposits. Wash walls with a vinegar-water solution, and then give them a fresh coat of paint. Empty and clean ashtrays - and don't smoke inside while your home's for sale! Cooking: Until your property sells, avoid cooking strong-smelling foods like fish, don't deep-fry, and cook with windows open and fans on. Place a bowl of white vinegar near your stovetop while cooking to absorb odor-causing particles. Lemon also works: squeeze juice into a pot of boiling water; rub lemon slices on surfaces; run a rind through your disposal. Mold/Mildew: To get rid of the odor, you need to address its source, so your course of action will depend on whether the problem is a rug, a leak, or your bathroom, for instance. But, generally, to absorb musty smells from fabrics, use baking soda; for hard surfaces, use vinegar, lemon, or hydrochloric acid, all of which are highly effective fungus killers.

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Decor Dilemmas

12/11/2012

Decorating a home can be harder than anticipated. Those of us who aren't interior designers, and who may therefore welcome a little help, might be interested in reading about these five common decor dilemmas - and their solutions. DILEMMA#1: Decorating a Large Room The Problem: I have a large room that lacks intimacy; it sometimes makes conversation difficult. The Solution: Large spaces are made for multiple uses, so use rugs, furniture or elements like columns to divide the room into zones serving different functions, like a reading area and conversation area. Create the appearance of a lower ceiling by installing molding a few feet below and painting it a darker shade than the walls; opt for warm, dark shade. Go big with furniture, artwork and patterns for proportionality's sake. DILEMMA#2: Decorating a Small Room The Problem: My small space feels claustrophobic. I'm worried it could also make my home harder to sell. The Solution: The further you can see into a space, the bigger it seems, so choose low-profile, open-design furniture - think exposed legs, armless chairs, glass-top tables, backless shelves. Match furniture to walls so it blends into the background. Use light hues on walls and paint the ceiling a lighter shade to raise it. Maximize light to banish shadows, and incorporate mirrors. DILEMMA #3: Establishing a Focal Point The Problem: I've heard a room will feel more inviting if furniture is arranged around a focal point. How do I establish this focal point? The Solution: If the room's architecture doesn't provide a natural focal point, like a fire place or picture window, you can create one by picking the room's largest feature, be it an armoire, sofa, TV, painting or even a rug, and emphasizing it by arranging your furniture around it, accenting it with lighting, accessorizing it, painting the wall behind it a different shade or wallpapering that wall. DILEMMA #4: Incorporating Trends The Problem: There are so many appealing home decorating ideas. How do I keep up with the latest styles, yet keep my budget in check? The Solution: Follow only one trend at a time and don't embrace it for the sake of being trendy - embrace it because it's in keeping with your personal style and it'll stay relevant to you that much longer. Incorporate trends only via those things that can be easily and inexpensively replaced: rugs, cushions, throws, lamps, artwork, picture frames and so on. For big-ticket items like your couch, stick to a timeless, classic look. DILEMMA#5: Mixing Decor Styles The Problem: I want to introduce a new look in my room but don't want it to look chaotic! The Solution: Consider incorporating a second decor style by introducing just one key item. If you want to mix it up more, be sure to keep your canvas (the room's walls) simple in terms of paint and wallpaper choice. Find a common denominator (color, pattern, shape, texture) to unite your distinctly styled pieces, and adhere closley to the principles of design: balance, proportion and scale, rhythm, and focal points.

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The Green Treatment

12/6/2012

In the quest to make your home's interior more environmentally friendly, you probably think first of things like installing energy-efficient appliances and CFL bulbs. Note that window treatments, while less obvious, can be part of your green home makeover, too. Here are some options for dressing your windows in an eco-friendly fashion. Buy Bamboo Bamboo is a fast-growing, biodegradable grass that requires no replanting or fertilizers. It's also versatile: choose from bamboo roman or mini shades, matchstick or roll-up blinds, verticals or shutters. Because they're lightweight, bamboo window coverings aren't very durable and provide little to no insulation, but they're inexpensive, low-maintenance and offer a natural look that complements - and even inspires - many a room's decor. Very similar to bamboo are jute, reed and rattan window coverings. Go Natural Synthetic fabrics like rayon and polyester contain petrochemicals harmful to your health and the environment, so opt instead for curtains made of natural fabrics like silk, cotton, linen, hemp or wool. Be aware of fabrics that have been chemically treated to be stain resistant or fire retardant, and look for those that are naturally pigmented or that have been colored with non-toxic or low-toxic dyes. You may need to add a backing to your natural-fabric drapes to add insulation, or to help darken the room to your liking. Everything Old Is New Again More and more manufacturers are offering consumers window coverings that are either entirely or partially made from recycled materials, and that are either wholly or partially recycable. For example, a can of soda pop could enjoy a reincarnation as a window covering - aluminum is a common material from which recycled blinds are made, as is hardwood. Polyester and natural fabrics like cotton can also be given new life as recycled curtains. The Real Thing, Only Better For some people, there's just no substitute for the look and feel of real wood. If this applies to you, choose window coverings that are made of basswood, a renewable hardwood that's recycable and biodegradable. Any type of wood will do, really, so long as it's certified as coming from a sustainably harvested forest. Alternatively, you can purchase window coverings made from sawdust or reclaimed wood, diverting waste from our landfills. Energy Savers Another way to green your window coverings is to choose more energy-efficient ones, which will help keep your utility bills and carbon footprint down. The energy efficiency of window coverings is measured in R-values. Look for treatments with a high R-value; the higher the R-value, the more effective the treatment is in preventing heat from escaping your home. Its shading coefficient is also important - the lower the coefficient, the less heat entering through your windows. Thanks to their honeycomb-like cell structure that serves to trap air, cellular shades are among the most effective insulating window coverings on the market.

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Less Is More

11/29/2012

From young professionals snapping up condos downtown, to empty nesters looking to downsize, small-space living is catching on. And no wonder: the benefits are numerous, from lower mortgage payments to less time spent cleaning. Furnishing a smaller home can be a challenge, however. With that in mind, here are five space-saving furniture options. Multifunctional Ottomans No longer just a place to prop your feet, ottomans have been enjoying a comeback as fashionable and felxible pieces of furniture. With lids that lift up to reveal hollow interiors, storage ottomans are great for stowing everything out of sight, from your media collection to your spare linens. Cube-style ottomans can be scattered throughout a room, doing double duty as extra seating or side tables wherever they're needed; bench-style ottomans are great in place of a coffee table or as seating at the foot of your bed. Wall-Mounted Desks Whether you need your guest room to double as a home office or need a spot in the kitchen where the kids can do their homework while you supervise, wall-mounted desks are a revelation. Taking up no floor space and only a few feet of wall space, the work surface simply flips down when needed and folds away to free up living space. Don't underestimate the functionalityof these desks: in addition to having compartments to store and organize accessories, some even have CPU holders and cord organizers. Convertible Coffee Tables Do you have an occasional need for a larger work surface? Expandable coffee tables - which offer added surface area that either flips up, is inserted, or slides out - are just the ticket. Don't have room for a coffee table and dining table? Problem solved, with a convertible coffee table that's adjustable to dining height, with or without an expandable surface area. Don't have room for a desk? Opt for a lift-top coffee table: the tabletop extends up and forward, providing a convenient surface for writing or using your laptop. Sectionals Sectionals are great for modestly sized spaces, as pieces can be arranged in whatever configuration suits your needs, then rearranged when needs change. Have company over? Disperse pieces throughout the room to provide seating for your guests. Watching a movie? Push the pieces together and lay down on your couch. Also beneficial, many sectionals include a corner piece, allowing you to make the most efficient use of space. For even greater space savings, look for a sectional that offers under-seat storage. Small-Space Beds Gone are the days of pullout couches that leave you feeling a phantom metal bar in your back for days. Today's options are much more sophisticated, comfortable, and varied in style. Choose from: loft beds, which utilize vertical space; trundle beds; sofa beds whose backs and sides fold down to create sleeping surfaces; loveseats, chairs, ottomans, and even desks that convert to beds; and Murphy beds disguised as cabinetry (vertical or horizontal) or built into bookcases, that flip down or retract with the push of a button.

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Mortgages for the Self-Employed

11/27/2012

If you are one of the approximately 2.5 million self-employed workers in Canada, or one of the millions more who generate your income through commission-based sales, you may have had difficulty in the past arranging competitively-priced mortgage financing. Banks have traditionally shied away from lending money to the self-employed, as without a file full of predictable pay stubs to back you up, lenders may not feel confident that you can meet your mortgage obligations. However, with the rising amount of workers moving into independent employment arrangements, the time has come for lending institutions to look at this particular market in a more accepting manner. As a general rule, you can prepare for your loan application by: Working on a good credit record. Ensure your income tax has been filed, and you owe no money to Revenue Canada. Check that all payments on your credit cards or other loans are up-to-date. You'll need to provide proof of how long you have been self-employed (three or more years is ideal), plus your incorporation number and GST number. You'll find that it's often easier to secure financing for a property that's in or near a major city centre. Many business-for-self owners deduct expenses in lieu of extra income, something that doesn't fit into the regular bank accounting structure. A smart financial strategy for your business is to minimize taxable income, but when your final numbers are pligged into a regular chartered bank's lending criteria, they may view you as a high-risk borrower.

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Holiday Sale

11/27/2012

Placing your home for sale during the holidays is often a savvy sales move, however you do need to consider a slightly different sales approach than usual due to the special time of year. One suggestion is to consider forgoing your holiday decorating traditions while your home is for sale. In doing so, you'll avoid the risk of making potential buyers feel uncomfortable or unwelcome in your home; after all, not everyone celebrates the holidays as you do. In addition, you'll make it easier for buyers to imagine observing their own traditions in the space. If you do put out holiday decorations, stick to ones that can easily be stowed away when potential buyers stop by for a showing or keep those that will stay out to a minimum. If too many decorations crowd your home, you risk making the space feel smaller in the eyes of buyers and obscuring from view its selling features, like windows and architectural details. You want buyers' attention to focus on the home itslef, not the decorations adorning it. To help ease your stress levels, be open with your agent about those times during the holidays when your home will be unavailable for showings. Whether you'll be entertaining guests or out of town, your agent needs to know your home's availability. If you will be out of town, be sure your agent knows how to contact you should an offer be made on your home. Lastly, be aware that it might take longer to process paperwork during the holiday season and that you may have to plan further ahead than normal when booking a mover.

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A Place For Everything

11/22/2012

Have you just moved into a new place and are looking for room for all your belongings? Are you having trouble accommodating all the things you've accumulated in your home throughout the years? Or are you planning to sell and need to show off your square footage to potential buyers? Whatever your reasons for wanting more storage space are, there are plenty of ways to get it. Here are just a few. PARE DOWN: First things first, edit your stuff. The easiest and most inexpensive way to get the added storage space you need is to get rid of everything you don't. So gather togetherall those items you don't want or use - the rule of thumb is that if you haven't used it in the last year, it goes - sell or donate. If you've recently moved, you've probably already done this. If you're soon-to-be selling, paring down your belongings will not only vacate more storage space to impress buyers, it'll make your move easieras you'll have fewer things to pack up and transport to your new home. DOUBLE DUTY: Multifunctional furniture is an ingenious solution to the problem of where to put your stuff, because it gives you added storage space without taking up any more room in your home. Examples of multifunctional furniture include: ottomans and coffee tables with lids that lift up to reveal storage space; chairs and sofas with seat cushions that hide space ideal for stowing away knitting equipment or spare blankets; and beds that have shelves built into the headboard or that feature under-bed drawers, perfect for storing clothing and accessories. OVERHEAD, OVERLOOKED: Take a quick survey of your rooms. Chances are there's little to no functional use of the space above the approximate five-foot mark. So take advantage of that wasted overhead space for items you don't use very often. For instance, if you're redoing your kitchen, as many people do after moving into or before selling their home, opt for 36- or 42-inch cabinets instead of the standard 30-inch ones. Consider installing floatingshelves above and on either side of windows, or even suspending them from ceilings. In kid's rooms, ceiling-suspended nets are a great place to store soft toys when they're not in use. GO DEEPER: Did you know there's valuable storage space hiding in your walls that you may be able to take advantage of? It's right there behind your drywall and between your studs. If you're able to find remote sections of your walls, you can create (with the help of a professional, of course!) stylish, functional built-ins in any room of your home, whether they be open shelves meant for displaying items or whether you finish them off with doors for out-of-sight storage space. Very appealing to buyers, built-ins can lend your home a customized look and add to its value - after all, buyers crave extra storage space just as much as you do!

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Best Intentions

11/20/2012

While an overwhelming percentage of Canadians agree that homeownership is a good thing, and that today's real estate conditions make it a good time to purchase a home, it's interesting to discover how long buyers take to actually act on their home-owning intentions. According to the Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation, 70 percent, or more than two-thirds of recent homebuyers, reported they had spent at least six months planning their purchases. The national average shows homebuyers taking 12 months to plan, with those in the Prairies taking nine months, compared to homebuyers in Quebec taking an average of 15 months to plan their purchase. Budgeting for a new mortgage is a significant part of the home buying process, and, in fact, should be the first step in the hunt for a property. When you don't know what you can afford, there is no point in wasting your time viewing properties that are potentially unsuitable for your budget. Being familiar with the services of a mortgage broker, you know how easy it is to get the information you need about all the financing options available. And you know that, because there is no cost or obligation for these services, you can feel comfortable asking the questions you need answers to, without any pressure. Please call with your questions on financing your next property. A mortgage broker's job includes sitting down with you and going over your budget, and your home ownership goals. With that information, we can review the most effective financing options, allowing you to hunt for a property with clear, feasible objectives in mind.

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To Your Health!

11/13/2012

You've no doubt heard it said that most accidents occur inside the home. With that in mind, here are some helpful tips on how to make your home a safer place to live in. Smoke Detectors. Contrary to popular belief they shouldn't go in the kitchen, where they're likely to go off when they shouldn't. Rather, they should be placed outside of every bedroom, to wake the sleeping, and on every floor of homes with more than one. Mount them at the ceiling's highest point, as smoke rises, and test them regularly (once a month). Carbon monoxide detectors. These, too, should be placed outside of sleeping quarters and on every floor in multilevel homes. Where they shouldn't go is next to fuel-burning appliances and in areas prone to tempature fluctuations: in bathrooms and kitchens, or near fans, vents or windows. Carbon monoxide detectors do expire, so be sure to read the instructions. In kitchens and bathrooms - anywhere there's potential for contact between you and a plugged-in device near water - standard electrical outlets should be replaced with ground-fault circuit interrupters (GFCIs). GFCIs monitor current flow and cause the circuit to shut off if there's an imbalance, protecting you from electrocution. GFCIs should be professionally installed. Bathrooms are a hot spot for home injuries. Having GFCIs will help with the issue of electrocutions, but falls are a big problem here too. To help prevent them, you should outfit your bathtubs and shower stalls with grab bars and non-slip mats, strips or decals. Also, put a bath mat (with a non-slip backing) on the floor outside of tubs and shower stalls where floors tend to get wet. Trips and falls, a leading cause of household injuries, don't just happen in bathrooms. Make sure your home is well lit, particularly around entranceways and any stairs you have. Pick up some nightlights and put them where they'll illuminate paths you often tread at night. Additionally, take a survey of your home: are there any rugs or loose cords that could cause an accident? Fire extinguishers - one per floor. Definitely have one in your kitchen, where home fires are most likely to occur - just don't keep it by the stove, where you may not be able to grab it in case of flames. Familiarize yourself with the different types (A,B,C, and D) and make sure you know how to use them; for example, B is ideal for kitchens, as it's intended for use on flammable liquid (e.g. grease fires). Speaking of fires, consider replacing your regular candles with flameless ones; they flicker and are made of wax, but are battery operated. At the very least, exercise candle safety: always use a heat-resistant candleholder big enough to catch drips, place them on sturdy surfaces away from combustible materials, and never leave them unattended or let them burn all the way down.

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Ready to Shop? Stop!

11/8/2012

So, you qualified for a new mortgage and are all set to make an offer on your dream home - congratulations! It's time to go shopping for new furniture, new appliances and the many other things you'll need for your new place, right? Stop now! Even though you've completed your loan application and were accepted for a mortgage, it doesn't mean automatic money in your pocket. Until the purchase of your new home is 100 percent finalized, you need to keep your cash reserves high to prove to your lender that you are capable of servicing your upcoming mortgage debt. Do not buy anything using credit card once you have completed a loan application. Turn away from that car you've had your eye on, say no to that shiny new computer, and delay the purchase of those new appliances you were planning to put in your new home. These purchases, if bought on credit, may cause a slight alteration in your credit ratio, and that might be enough to cause an underwriter to deny your loan. And to add insult to injury, there may even be a risk of forfeiting your deposit when you lose your opportunity to buy the home.

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6 Months to a Better Budget

10/29/2012

One of the challenges with proper budgeting is that it has to become habitual in order to be effective. You can survive without knowing how to budget if you manage to keep more money coming in rather than going out or have credit cards to cover the gap, but this won't last forever. Emergency Fund The crux of this six-month plan is the emergency fund. Ideally, everyone should have at least one or two months' wages sitting in a money market account for any unpleasant surprises. This emergency fund acts as a buffer as the rest of the budget is put in place, and should replace the use of credit cards for emergency situations. You will want to build your emergency fund as quickly as possible. The key is to build the fund at regular intervals, consistently devoting a certain percentage of each paycheck toward it and, if possible, putting in whatever you can spare on top. What's an Emergency? You should only use the emergency money for true emergencies: like when you drive to work but your muffler stays at home. Covering regular purchases like clothes and food do not count, even if you used your credit card to buy them. Downsize and Substitute Now that you have a buffer between you and more high-interest debt, it is time to start the process of downsizing. It’s odd that the natural solution to not enough money seems to be increasing income rather than decreasing spending, but this backwards approach is very familiar to debt counselors. The more space you can create between your expenses and your income, the more income you will have to pay down debt and invest. This can be a process of substitution as much as elimination. For example, if you buy coffee from a fancy coffee shop every morning, you could just as easily purchase a coffee maker with a grinder and make your own, saving more money over the long term. Focus on Rewards Another trick that will help your budget come together faster is to focus on the rewards. A mixture of long- and short-term goals will help keep you motivated. This can be as simple as saving for a small luxury, or even something bigger like buying a car with cash. Watching these goals slowly but surely become a reality can be very satisfying and provide further motivation to work harder at your budget. Find New Sources of Income Why isn't this the first step? If you simply increase your income without a budget to handle the extra cash properly, the gains tend to slip through the cracks and vanish. Once you have your budget in place and have more money coming in than going out, you can start investing to create more income. Now, it is possible that it will take you more than six months to get your budget balanced out as it all depends on your situation, including how much or what kind of debt you have. But, even if it does take you longer than six months to get your budget turned around, it is time well spent. (Source: Investopedia.com)

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What's The Forecast?

10/25/2012

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation's (CMHC) third quarter housing report projects that Canada's new and existing home markets will moderate through to the end of this year and into the next. Canada's housing markets are expected to moderate over the rest of 2012 and into 2013 after showing sustained activity levels, specifically in the multiples segment over the first half of 2012. Balanced market conditions in most local housing markets will result in a slowing in house price growth as well. said Mathieu Laberge, Deputy Cheif Economist for CMHC. While predictions are being applied in the direction of housing sales and prices, it's anyone's guess as to when mortgage rates will finally rise. What we do know is that today's rates are still sitting at historically low levels. As 2012 winds down, you may be wondering if now is the time for you to consider refinancing your mortgage to a lower interest rate. Each situation is different, and there may be costs involved that aren't obvious to consumers when perusing advertised rates. That's why making time now for a personal, no-obligation discussion with your mortgage broker is an essential first step in your decision-making process. And of course, if your mortgage renewal is coming up, it's especially timely that we review the best rates and terms for you as soon as possible. Even if you're not interested in moving or refinancing at the moment, or aren't ready to renew your mortgage, please remember that you're always welcome to call for a no-obligation update on today's mortgage matters.

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Getting Your Home Clean & Clutter Free for The Fall Season

10/18/2012

Surveys agree that cleaning and decluttering is the most low-cost, high-return home improvement a seller can make. To help you get (and keep) your home clean and clutter-free, consider availing yourself of any of the following services. A professional cleaning service. Whether you hire them to get your home sparkling clean from top to bottom before it goes on the market, or just to come in regularly to maintain things while it's for sale (or both), a cleaning service can do wonders for your stress levels. A professional organizer. Don't know how to tackle your clutter? So used to it you can't even see it? An organizer can simply identify your problem areas and provide you with a to-do list, or get your hands-on in helping you clear your clutter. You'd be surprised how affordable their services can be. Temporary storage. Showing your home off at its most spacious state might necessitate off-site storage. Portable containers are ideal for those on the move - have your things delivered right to your new door! There are even climate-controlled storage units for our more delicate stuff. Junk removal service. What to do with all that clutter, the dilapidated furniture taking up space? If you've got a lot of stuff you don't want going with you to your new address, consider hiring a junk removal company (perhaps even a green one - they exist!) to deal with it before buyers see it. True, such services are an additional expense, but when you consider that studies have consistently shown the return on investment for simply cleaning and decluttering to be around $2,000, a little professional help may be well worth the cost.

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Decor Don'ts

10/15/2012

Trends come and go, but there are some decor decisions that are just never en vogue. In fact, they can outright sabotage the look, and sometimes the functionality, of your room. Below are four mistakes that decorating professionals would agree are cardinal decorating sins. Poor Lighting When done right, lighting lends a room a warm, inviting atmosphere while providing enough light to carry out the tasks for which you use the room. Too common, however, are rooms so dark they give new meaning to man cave or so harshly lit they make you feel like you're on stage. Often the problem is a single overhead fixture. Rooms should have three layers of light: ambient, for general lighting; accent, for highlighting features like bookcases or artwork; and task, for reading in the bedroom or chopping veggies in the kitchen, for example. Dimmer switches and soft white light bulbs are very useful in the creation of good lighting schemes. Hanging Artwork Too High Make artwork diffucult to see and you defeat its purpose. Hang it where it can be comfortably viewed: at eye level. Keep in mind that eye level differs between standing and sitting positions, of course, so when hanging art, consider where it will be viewed from - art to be viewed while seated at your dining table should be hung lower than art in your hallway, for instance. Rules of thumb: eye level for most people is 60 to 64 inches from the floor to the centre of the artwork; there should be six to eight inches between the top of a furniture piece and the bottom of the artwork hung above it, so that the art anchors to, rather than floats above the furniture. Clutter Accessory overload is an all too common affliction: picture frames obscuring every available surface, collectibles everywhere you look...In addition to being visually draining and making rooms appear smaller than they are, clutter is mentally draining, adding to your stress level and making you feel a lack of control over your life. Edit your stuff: if you don't use or love it, it goes; consider rotating your knick-knacks so that only some are out at any time - changing them with the seasons, for example, can help you keep your decor fresh. For greater impact, keep collectibles together instead of placing them throughout the room. Awkward Furniture Arrangements Oft-seen mistakes include: pushing all the furniture back against a room's walls, leaving a void in a room's middle, making conversation difficult; traffic paths that don't allow enough walking space around your furniture or that direct people through the conversations or activities taking place in the room; layouts in the which seating areas aren't accompanied by a place to set down, at the very least, a drink; placing all the visually heavy pieces of furniture on one side of the room, resulting in a space that's unbalanced; and overlooking proportion, in terms of how pieces relate to each other (e.g. diminutive tables next to oversized sofas).

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Back to School Lessons on Student Loans

10/1/2012

Thousands of students are back to school now, many of them struggling with the financial responsibility of tuition fees for the first time. If you not only remember those days, but are, in fact, still struggling to pay off your student loan from years past, you may want to find out if your mortgage broker can help. Becoming a homeowner consists of many more financial obligations than just a mortgage. Taxes, home maintenance and the costs of running a household create immediate repsonsibilities that you may find take precedence over your old student loan. You do, however, need to pay off that student loan at some point, and that's where, if you have enough equity in your home, you may want to consider taking care of your student loan by incorporating it into your existing mortgage. Wiping your student loan clean will feel good, and - because it would be considered paid by the lender and would therefore show as one less loan on your record - could have a positive impact on your credit score too! Do you have questions about your existing loans, or on any new loans you may be considering? please call for a no-obligation discussion today!

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"For Sale By Owner": Issues With Selling Your Home Yourself

9/25/2012

If you're thinking of selling your home yourself as an FSBO (For Sale By Owner), think again, from a buyer's perspective. Buyers may be more hesitant to deal with sellers representing themselves than with those working with a professional real estate sales representative. Owners selling their own homes probably don't have access to the information needed (e.g., comparables) in order to assess their home's true market value. As a result, they're more likely to overprice their homes and less likely to recognize a fair offer when they see one. For buyers, this can make for a more frusterating and time consuming negotitation process, which is always a turn-off. And so when the market's moving fast, buyers will be especially motivated to avoid such sellers. Also, real estate transactions can be incredibly complex, requiring detailed financial and legal knowledge in order to see a sale through. For example, do the sellers know how to properly fill out paperwork? Buyers may be wary of dealing with homeowners selling their properties themselves, fearing the sellers lack the breadth and depth of knowledge needed in order to successfully complete the transaction. Lastly, some buyers may be reluctant to deal with do-it-yourself sellers because they're of the opinion that sellers who won't hire a professional to handle the sale are frugal and like to cut corners. They may even wonder if the sellers will try to nickel and dime them (e.g., with chattels and fixtures) and where else the sellers will try to cut corners. For a transaction as significant as buying and selling a home, it's important to involve real estate professionals, starting with a qualified real estate sales representative.

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The Final Analysis

9/21/2012

Not to be skipped, your final walkthrough is your last chance to ensure your new home is conveyed to you in satisfactory condition. Here are a few words of advice about your pre-closing viewing. If the seller is present during your walkthrough, it may be beneficial. No one knows the property better, so it's a great opportunity to ask questions about it, your new neighbours, or the neighbourhood. Also ask for their new contact info, for forwarding mail after you've moved in. Your real estate representative should attend your walkthrough. Not only can they keep you from getting distracted (mentally arranging your furniture), they know what to check for, and should there be problems, can advise you of of your options and immeditaely contact the seller's representative. If permitted, take a camera so you can document any problems. If you took any photos of the home during previous visits, bring them along too, so you can compare its condition then to its condition now, as well as identify and more closely investigate spots that were covered by furniture or rugs, for example. Bring your contract so you can ensure that alkl items included in the sale have been left behind an that all agreed-upon repairs have been made. You might also want to bring the home-inspection report so you can check if any problems revealed (but not repaired per the contract) have gotten worse. Ask the seller to provide you with any manuals and warranties for the home's appliances and such. Warranties and invoices for any work done on the home before closing will also be very useful to you as the new owner, so ask for those too.

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New Borrowing Regulations

9/10/2012

Did You Hear The News? If you were away for the summer and are just getting caught up on the latest real estate news, you'll be interested in hearing about the new borrowing regulations that came into effect on July 9th, 2012. As announced by Jim Flaherty, Minister of Finance, The Canadian government put four new measures in place for new government-backed insured mortgages with loan-to-value ratios of more than 80 percent: The new maximum amortization period is reduced from 30 years to 25 years for homebuyers who have a downpayment of less than 20 percent. This is the third adjustment to the maximum amortization period in four years. The maximum amortization period was set at 35 years in 2008 and further reduced to 30 years in 2011. The new maximum amount Canadians can borrow when refinancing is reduced from 85 percent to 80 percent of the value of their homes. The purpose of this is to promote saving through homeownership and encourage homeowners to prudently manage borrowings against their homes. The new maximum gross debt service limit is now 39 percent. The purpose of lowering the limit is to better protect Canadian households that may be vulnerable to economic shocks or an increase in interest rates. Government-backed mortgage insurance will no longer be available for homes with a purchase price of more than $1 million. Wondering how these new regulations will affect your borrwing plans? Please call for a no-obligation discussion today.

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A New Look for Less!

8/22/2012

Roll With It. Paint is one of the easiest, least expensive ways to breathe new life into your decor. Change a room's color and you not only change its look, you change its vibe. Large rooms feel more calming when painted in cool hues, like marine greens and blues. But there are many more applications for paint than just changing wall color. Use paint with stencils to create faux finishes, or paint, well, just about anything: bookcases, tables, lamps, and even floors. Check local retailers for mis-mixed paints, which you can pick up at a fraction of their original cost. Change of Plans. If you're like most people, your floor plan is arranged in such a way that all of your furniture is pushed back flush against your walls. Such a layout can look a bit sterile, so try bringing your furniture out from the room's perimeter, and placing pieces on the diagonal - this can lend rooms a sense of movement, takingthem from dull to dynamic. Also, experiment with groupings of furniture, creating different zones that serve different functions - a reading nook and a TV-watching area, for example. Changing your floor plan might make you break a sweat, but it certainly won't break the bank. It's the Little Things. Rugs, pillows, artwork, picture frames, lamps, vases - easy to move around, repositioning accessories are a great way to revamp a room. Rearrange your accessories or rotate them so only some of them are out at any one time. Want to introduce a theme into a room or change one that's already there? Accessories are a great way to do so - limiting your thematic expression to accessories helps to avoid overkill and allows you to easily and inexpensively change your theme when you tire of it. A Shift in Focus. Interior designers will tell you every room should have a focal point, a place for the eye to rest. If your room doesn't have a focal point, create one. To make it easier, some rooms have natural focal points: a fireplace, picture window, or wall of built-in shelving. If the room already has a focal point, you can shift it - from the TV to your big, fabulous painting or area rug, for example. Emphasize your focal point by arranging your furniture around it, accenting it with lighting, accessorizing it, or painiting the wall behind it a different color.

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Everything in Place: Arranging a Floor Plan

7/24/2012

Whether you're planning a room's layout for the very first time or changing its layout for the fifth time, below are a few factors you need to consider in order to end up with a floor plan that not only looks great, but that functions well too. How will the room be used? Function should dictate form: think about who will be using this room and what activites they'll be using it for. In a living room, for example, the space might be needed for any combination of watching TV, reading, game playing, crafting, and conversing. Your layout will need to include a zone for each function that the room will be serving, so you'll want to figure out what furniture is needed for each activity and how much space is needed for each zone. How will traffic flow through the room? A layout may look great on paper, but if you can't navigate through the space or get to other rooms without walking through a conversation, bumping into the furniture, or someone yelling Down in front! at you, the room isn't functional. Ideally, traffic paths should afford those walking them two or three feet of space and furniture should be brought out from the walls so as to direct traffic around the room's perimeter (a floor plan that's more realistic in larger rooms). What about architectural/fixed features? Windows, doorways, closets, built-ins, niches, bump-outs, fireplaces, electrical outlets and switches, heating and cooling vents - the more architectural/fixed features a room has, the more challenges it adds to your layout. Doors need enough clearance to open, outlets and switches need to be accessible, and vents, views and doorways need to be unobstructed. Bringing your furniture out from the walls or angling pieces on the diagonal will help with at least some of these problems. Where will the room's focal point be? Without a focal point, the eye darts about the room without a place to rest. If the room's architecture doesn't provide a natural focal point, such as a fireplace or a bay window offering a nice view, you can make one. Pick the room's largest feature, be it an armoire, sofa, bed, TV, painting or even an area rug, and arrange your furniture in such a way as to direct people's attention to your chosen focal point. Because it anchors the room, your focal point should be placed on your floor plan first. Is the room balance? Balance refers to the visal distribution of weight in a room. If all the large, heavy pieces of furniture are on one side of the room, for example, it will look off-balance. When planning your layout, try to distribute visual weight evenly throughout the room, by mirroring a weighty item with another one or with a grouping of lighter items. You also want to be mindful of the scale of items placed next to each other - setting delicate side tables next to a bulky, oversized couch won't work.

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Is the Price Right?

7/19/2012

When a homeowner decides to sell, there's no limit as to what they can list their property for. So how do you know if the asking price of that home you've been eyeing is on the money? Your likely starting point is comparable sales - that is, recent sales of properties similar to the one you're considering in terms of location, age, square footage, number of bedrooms/bathrooms, etcetera. Knowing the selling price of comps, as they're known, gives you an idea of how competitively priced the property is. Where can you find information on comparable sales? The Multiple Listing Service, a centralized database that your real estate representative will access for you. In addition, your real estate representative can find out about pending sales, providing you with the most up-to-date information. But these numbers don't paint the whole picture. Rarely will comps be exactly like the property you're eyeing, making it necessary to be evaluated on its own merits. Only by viewing the property first-hand can you and your real estate representative see what upgrades it has and what condition it's in, for example. You'll also want to have any property you're seriously considering professionally inspected. Though a home inspection won't tell you what a property is worth, it will give you a deeper understanding of the home's physical condition, which is helpful information when it comes to evaluating a seller's asking price. Ultimately, it's up to your lender's appraisal to assess the property's worth, though your lender won't order the appraisal until you apply for mortgage financing. But you can get information on comparable sales right away by calling your real estate representative today!

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Relocating Responsibly

7/18/2012

Whether you're relocating across town, across the country or across the world, you can make your next movea more environmentally friendly one. One of the main tenets of green living is, reduce. So get rid of as much of your stuff asyou can pre-move. The fewer things you have to move, the less packing material and fuel you will require. But purge the eco-friendly way: offer items that don't make the cut to friends and family, hold a garage sale, or sell, donate, or recycle them. Don't buy boxes; savage them from from local retailers or friends and family, and recycle them post-move or pass them on to someone else. Alternatively, you can rent storage containers, either from a regular moving company or one of the increasing number of green moving companies that offer containers made from recycled materials. Bubble wrap and Styrofoam peanuts are made in an eco-unfriendly way and linger in landfills. Don't buy packing material - collect it from the products you buy and reuse it for your move; use your clothing, bedding, towels and kicthen cloths to pad your belonings; or pack with paper products like newspaper and cardboard, which can be recycled when you're finished with them. Hire an eco-friendly mover. They provide the reusable, recycled and/or recyclable storage containers and packing materials for you, take them away when your move is over, and, in some cases, they use trucks that run on biodiesel fuel to transport your belongings.

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Fear Factor: Battle Purchasing Fears

7/17/2012

No matter how many times you've done it before, buying a new home can be a daunting task. But it doesn't have to be. Below are some of the most common fears homebuyers face - and some advice to help alleviate them. NOT BEING ABLE TO AFFORD YOUR NEW HOME. Sit down with a mortgage consultant before you start home hunting. Not only will he or she give you a realistic idea of what you can afford given your circumstances and tell you how much you can qualify to borrow, the consultant can discuss borrowing options with you to find the best fit. OVERPAYING. Make sure you shop with a needs vs. wants list to help you stay objective when looking at prospective properties. And team up with a real estate sales representative, a professional who is an expert at assessing a property's fair market value and who is a skilled negotiator, and whose job it is to work for your best interests. MISSING OUT ON THE ONE. When it comes to real estate, there's no such thing as the one. In reality, for any property that suits your needs, there will be others that are just as suitable for you given your criteria. After all, properties in any given area are usually very similar to one another, often constructed by the same builder. BUYER'S REMORSE. It's normal to wonder whether you made the right decision after making such a big purchase. No home is perfect, and even the slightest imperfections can leave you questioning your choice, so be prepared for that. But if you follow the advice above, it's less likely you'll suffer from a serious case of buyer's remorse.

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For Rent? Or Sale?

7/13/2012

You've decided to buy a new home. But what are you going to do with your current one: rent it or sell it? Below are a few things to consider before making your decision. What's the rental market like? If you anticipate uninterrupted occupancy of your property, you can view the rental arrangement as a way to have your cake and eat it too - your tenants can help pay off your mortgage as your property grows in value. What's the buying and selling market like? Every market's different, and yours might be kinder to sellers right now - or not. If it is a buyer's market, renting out your property until the market changes may make more financial sense. Do you have the time and inclination to be a landlord? Consider the distance from your current home to your new home, and if you'll have the time to maintain both properties. If not, you'll want to have a reliable back-up person available to deal with any repair issues you're not able to address. And, of course... Can you afford it? If you're like most people, you probably need the money from your current home in order to purchase your next one. Consider the equity in your current property and the financing necessary for your next property before making your final decision. An investment property can certainly be profitable for you in the long run, but make sure you get all the facts first, by talking to your lawyer, your mortgage advisor, and your real estate sales representative.

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Aesthetic Appeal

7/11/2012

Unfortunately, many potential buyers can't see past a property's aesthetic flaws; fortunately, such flaws are easily remedied. Below are five aesthetic mistakes you don't want to make during showings of your home. Lack of light. At most, a dark home is one that buyers can't see their way around, possibly causing injury; at least, a dark home can feel unwelcoming and look smaller than it really is. So let in all the natural light you can, turn on all your light fixtures, and swap dim bulbs for high wattage. Clutter. Like dark spaces, cluttered spaces feel smaller than they are. Also problematic, clutter signals neglect, distracts buyers' eyes from what they're there to see (the property itself, not all of your stuff), and makes it hard for buyers to picture their own lives and belongings in the space. Offensive odors. Whether the source is smoking, cooking or pets, few things turn buyers off a home faster than an unpleasant odor. Eliminating odor may be as simple as keeping your trash emptiedor as involved as professionally cleaning your carpets, draperies and upholstery. Outdated decor. While you don't need to be updated on all the latest design trends, your decor should be appealing to the greatest number of prospective buyers possible - and an interior that looks like it's stuck in a time warp doesn't have broad appeal. Neglected repairs. Drawers without hardware, crooked cabinet doors, missing pieces of molding - like clutter, these little imperfections signal neglect, giving buyers the impression your home hasn't been well maintained. Make sure they're fixed before potential buyers start showing up at your door.

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Mortgage Freedom, Faster!

7/10/2012

It's exciting to buy a home and feel free of the restraints of paying off someone else's property through rent. But once the inital euphoria wears off, many homeowners have woken up in a cold sweat, thinking, How am I ever going to pay off this mortgage? It can be done and certainly has been done in a reasonable amount of time, and here are some tips on how. A recent Harris-Decima poll questioned Canadian homeowners about how they managed to become mortgage-free faster. The majority of them used one or more of the following strategies to pay off their mortgages: 52 percent made lump-sum payments when they could 42 percent increased the amount of their regular mortgage payments 40 percent increased the frequency of their regular mortgage payments Sound easy? Maybe, but it didn't come without certain sacrifices. In fact, the poll showed that the Canadians who paid off their mortgages followed one or more of these habits: 53 percent said they skipped large, unnecessary purchases 53 percent said they created a budget to track their spending 49 percent cut down on extra spending, including restaurant and entertainment costs 38 percent skipped vacations Today's low interest rates are allowing more people to move up in the market. With smart planning and the guidance of your mortgage broker, you can afford you dream home within a realistic timeframe. Please call today for a no-obligation discussion on your current loan situation, and for updates on today's mortgage options and how you may benefit from them.

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Rate Your Mortgage

7/6/2012

Mortgage rates have been front-page news for a while now, with the focus being in the historically low rates currently being offered to mortgagors. When borrowers find themselves being caught up incalculating dollars and cents, it's important to remember that a mortgage is about so much more than only the interest rate. A mortgage broker's job is to make sure that the mortgage you choose fits your needs, financial capabilites and lifestyle. Once we make sure you're comfortabke with your options, we will also go over a number of other features to see where else you can save money. For example, we will discuss and explain: flexible payment options prepayment options and penalties lender fees, if applicable portability and assumability missed payment flexibility It's important for homeowners to know that answers to your everyday questions are just a phone-call away. For example, you may recieve an annual bonus at work and may wonder how much of a difference it would make in the long-term if you decided to apply that lump sum to your mortgage. Or you may want a comparison on how many years you could shave off your mortgage - and how much money you would subsequently save in interest - if you increased the amount, or the frequency of your regular mortgage payments. Please call today for answers to all these questions, plus - yes - information on the most attractive interet rates available.

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Closing Time: What to Avoid

6/21/2012

A lot can happen between the time you make an offer on a home and when you get your new keys. What you do before you close can create problems for you, slow down the home-buying process, or even stop it all together. As you count down the days to your closing, there are a few things you should avoid doing. First, don't make major purchases. Your credit may be in great shape, but if you make any major purchases, you'll increase your debt-to-income ratio and reduce that portion of your monthly income that's meant for mortgage payments. As a result, your lender might decide you can't afford to carry the home. Using cash for large purchases isn't a good idea either, as lenders take your cash reserves into account when processing your mortgage approval. It's also best to avoid changing jobs until the property is officially yours. Changing employers can create uncertainty about your future earnings, particularily if a substantial portion of your income will come from commissions or bonuses, or you work part-time. For those considering self-employment, know that most lenders like to see a two- or three-year track record of self-employment income before approving a loan. Finally, don't shift your money around. When approving your loan, your lender may ask to see statements on your liquid assets (checking and savings accounts, stocks, mutual funds, retirement accounts) for the last two or three years, including a complete record of all deposits and withdrawals. If you've been moving your money around, you could make it difficult for your lender to properly document the paper trail, so leave your money where it is and don't change banks for now.

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Ready, Set, Move!

6/19/2012

Most buyers, especially first-time homebuyers, agree that finding a property in move-in ready condition is important to them. So, sellers, it's time to roll up your sleeves and get to work. Making your home move-in ready doesn't necessarily mean doing costly kitchen and bath renovations. It does mean addressing safety issues, as well as performing maintenance tasks, both minor (such as fixing leaky faucets and drawers that stick) and major (like fixing faulty appliances or problems with your heating/cooling system). To that end, consider having your home professionally inspected before it goes on market; the inspection report can serve as your to-do list, ensuring your property is all fixed up - not a fixer-upper. Getting your home in move-in condition also means making sure it's thoroughly clean and neutral in decor. Ideally, buyers want to be able to move into a property where they can apply their personal touch without having to first remove yours. In other words, your decor should be a blank canvas - so give your walls a fresh coat of paint in a neutral tone, and, if not already a neutral shade, replace your carpeting, too. Just as buyers want a move-in ready home, you want top dollar for your property. So, while putting work and money into your home only to turn around and sell it might seem counterproductive, doing so will help to justify a higher asking price than you could set for your home if it required more work on behalf of its new owners.

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Price it Right: Avoid Common Pricing Mistakes

6/18/2012

Pricing your home right is critical for a quicker sale. To help prevent your property from lingering on the market longer than it needs to, avoid the following mistakes many sellers unfortunately make when establishing their asking price. Factoring in sentimental value. Your property is no doubt priceless to you - you've worked hard to make it a home and it's been the source of countless wonderful memories. However, your price needs to be based on market value - after all, buyers aren't buying your memories, they're buying a piece of real estate. Ignoring comparable sales - that is, recent sales of properties similar to yours in terms of location, square footing, number of bedrooms/bathrooms, ecetera. This information is key to establishing your home's market value, so ask your real estate sales representative for a comparative market analysis. Letting your financial needs determine your asking price. While it may be tempting to base your listing price on how much money you need at closing, be it to pay off debt or make a down payment on a pricier home, this is a big no-no. If you want your home to sell faster, price it at fair market value. Basing your asking price on what you paid for your home. Home values fluctuate due to economic factors, shifts in demand for certain housing types, and various other reasons. The new buyer will pay what they think it's worth, not necessarily what you paid for it, plus a markup. Set your asking price too high, and your lisiting wont generate interest. Set it too low, and potential buyers might wonder if there's a significant flaw. Again, your real estate sales representative's guidance is imperative when determining your asking price.

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Home-Hunting Don'ts

6/13/2012

Whether you're looking for your next home now or you're planning to pound the pavement this spring, be sure to avoid these home-hunting don'ts. If possible, don't bring the kids - at least in the initial home-hunting stages. They can divert your attention from where it needs to be: on the homes. Also, children tend to either love or hate each property, so it's best not to bring them along until you've objectively narrowed your search down to the serious candidates, at which time you'll want their input. Don't bite off more than you can chew. Filter your search to a defined area; if you run all over town without focus, you're bound to tire sooner. And don't schedule too many showings for the same day - you might find yourself suffering from information overload and unable to distiguish between the homes you saw. Don't forget to bring along copies of your needs vs. wants checklist so you can meaure how each peoperty stacks up. At the very least, bring a notepad, so you can jot down your thoughts and questions about each property, so you have some point of reference to help you remember which home was which. Don't focus solely on the home itself - be sure to take note of its surroundings, too. For exmaple, do neighbouring properties look well maintained? Might the property be difficult to get in and out of due to traffic? What's within walking distance? Is there anything nearby that might be a source of excessive noise or unpleasant odors? Remember that an experienced real estate sales representative can help you negotiate through today's housing market, and provide valuable tips on successful house-hunting.

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Kitchen Aid

5/31/2012

Its the Little Things New hardware is about the cheapest, easiest way to update your kitchen - especially if you opt for unfinished wooden hardware and do the finishing yourself; if you prefer contemporary to customizable, go for chrome or stainless steel hardware. You can pick up a high-quality faucet for around $200, and replace the overhead fixture and/or add under-cabinet lighting for a relatively small cost. Just be sure your new hardware and fixtures match (or at least complement) each other. Goodbye Harvest Gold If your appliances work fine, but could use a cosmetic facelift, you have a few options. You can order a front panel and trim kit from the manufacturer or a refacing company. Applying a vinyl film or magnetic cover is a great way to inject some personality into your kicthen - they come in a variety of colours, themes, and materials (e.g., chalkboard, whiteboard, or stainless steel panels). Or there's also appliance paint, available in brush-on and spray-on varities and found at home improvement and paint stores. Make a Splash A new backsplash doesn't have to cost more than a can of paint; a chalkboard, whiteboard, or magnetic backsplash adds some whimsy (and some functionality) to your kitchen. Other options include laminate; porcelain, ceramic, or glass tile; sheet glass; and mirror, ideal in smaller kitchens. If your kitchen's size is enough to make doing so affordable, you could splurge on natural stone (e.g. slate or granite) or metal tiles (e.g. stainless steel or copper). Ground Level Natural stone, tile, and hardwood floors are great in terms of resale value, but pricey. While those options may not be out of reach if your kitchen is on the small side, if you have a budget and a big kitchen, laminte or vinyl floors are your best bet. Laminate flooring can replicate the look of stone or wood and is relatively easy to install, thanks to its snap-together, tongue-and-groove design. Vinyl flooring, the most economical choice, comes in two types: sheet and tile; and though you can install both types yourself, vinyl tiles are easier to work with. Blow the Doors Off If your cabinets are in sound shape but look dated, you can reface them with new doors and drawer fronts, then paint the rest of the cabinets to match. It's less expensive than refinishing cabinets, sanding and/or stripping, and then painting or staining them. If you don't like the style of your cabinets, however, refinishing them doesn't make much sense. If you really want to change things up, consider removing some cabinet doors altogether or replacing door panels with clear or frosted glass.

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What's The Difference? Home Inspection and Home Appraisal

5/22/2012

Over half of prospective homebuyers polled in a recent Ipsos survey didn't understand the difference between a home inspection and a home appraisal. Let'sclear up any confusion right now. The purpose of a home inspection is to givethe client (whether buyer or seller) a deeper understanding of a property's physical condition. Most home inspections are commissioned by buyers, so that they may make a more informed decisionabout their purchase. It's increasingly common, however, for sellers to commision inspections, so that they may have an opportunity to address defects prior to listing, and so, price their properties more accurately. The inspector examines the property (including its foundation, roof, ceilings, walls, windows, doors, floors, basement, and heating/cooling, plumbing and electrical systems), then gives the client feedback, pointing out the property's strengths, the work needed to keep it in good condition, and any problems needing repair. The purpose of a home appraisal, on the other hand, is to assess a property's value, as opposed to its condition. Home appraisals are commissioned by lenders, prior to approving a mortgage, in order to ensure the loan amount doesn't exceed the home's value and that the lender could reasonably recoup their loss by reselling the property should the buyer default. Performed by certified appraisers (typically chosen by the lender and paid for by the borrower as part of their closing costs), appraisals can take into consideration comparable sales, the property's condition and location, and local market conditions. Also included in the appraisal report can be an estimate of the time it would take for the property to sell.

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Move-Up Mistakes

5/10/2012

With interest rates still low, this is a great time to move up in the market. But things are a little more complicated for move-up buyers than first-timers. Below are a few mistakes to avoid as you trade up. Depending on market conditions, buying before selling may be ill advised , leaving you burdened with two mortgages, an especially precarious position in buyers' markets. Plus, you may weaken your negotiating position: a seller under deadline may feel pressure to accept a lowball offer; a buyer with a property to sell may be one sellers would rather avoid. Failing to establish a contingency plan in the event you can't move straight from one current home into your new one. Have you figured out where you, your pets, and your belongings will stay in the interim? Leave such considerations to the last minute(or forego them altogether), and you may be in for a much more stressful and expensive move than need be. Not coordinating your closings. Timing is everything, especially when you're juggling the sale of one property and the purchase of another. There are a lot of people involved in these transactions - appraisers, mortagge consultants, inspectors, etcetera - so work closely with your real estate representative to ensure a smooth transition. Failing to price it right, prep it to show, or get pre-approved. Pricing your current home competitively and making sure it shows well is key to selling it more quickly, which is obviously important when you've got another home to buy. And with another home to buy, being pre-approved means you'll have more braganing power with the seller.

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Show Off Your Home - Make Your Property Easy to Show

4/23/2012

A home that's difficult to show is difficult to sell; after all, buyers won't buy what they can't see. To increase your odds of a speedy sale, make your property easy to show. Here's how: TRY TO AVOID MAKING SUCH STIPULATIONS AS REQUIRING 24 OR 48 HOURS' ADVANCE NOTICE FOR SHOWINGS. Buyers aren't keen on waiting; if your home isn't readily available they'll move on to those that are. BUYERS WANT TO VIEW YOUR HOME AT THEIR CONVENIENCE, NOT YOURS -and that often means at a moment's notice. If you're serious about selling, you'll make it as easy as possible to accommodate showings. Establish generous, reasonable hours of availability during which buyers and their real estate representatives can drop by: weekdays from 10 a.m. to 8 p.m., and weekends from 11 a.m. to 6 p.m., for example. And stick to those hours: a buyer or representative who shows up during appointed times only to be turned away isn't likely to return. TO MAXIMIZE YOUR HOME'S AVAILABILITY, CONSIDER HAVING A LOCKBOX INSTALLED. These sturdy boxes are usually affixed to your front doorknob, storing a key to your home that's accessed via another key or a combination and replaced when the showing is over. BE SURE TO KEEP YOUR HOME CLEN AND TIDY SO IT WILL SHOW WELL EVEN WHEN YOU'RE GIVEN LITTLE NOTICE OF A VIEWING. Establish a game plan for vacating your home, along with children and pets, so buyers can feel more comfortable looking around.

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Open House - Mind Your Manners

4/19/2012

When you attend an open house, you're not just inspecting a product for sale; you're entering someone's home. Be a good guest and observe these rules of etiquette. - Be respectful of open-house hours. Just as it's impossible to arrive early, when the hosting agent may be unprepared for visitors, don't linger longer than necessary. The agent may have other appointments to get to, so if they start turning off the lights, take that as your cue to get going. - Don't show up with a crowd. Open houses aren't a means of entertaining your whole family for free on a weekend afternoon. It's preferable you not bring your children so you won't be distracted from viewing the home, but if you do bring them, make sure they're well supervised. - Don't bring food or beverages inside with you. Remember, even though it's for sale, the home you're touring still belongs to someone and should be left as it was found. Refreshments are provided at many open houses, in which case eating and drinking them is perfectly appropriate. - If the hosting agent asks you to remove your shoes or of there is a sign asking that shoes be removed, the seller has specifically requested that it be done. Be sure to respect their wishes. Even if you aren't asked to remove your shoes, it's good manners to do so anyway. - If you're asking to show identification or to register with your name, address and phone number, don't take offense. Unfortunately, agents and homeowners are sometimes the victims of crime during open houses; requesting such information from you is merely a safety precaution.

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The Nose Knows...

4/9/2012

Few things sour prospective buyers faster than offensive odors. Below are the four most common offenders, and tips for ridding your home of them: - PETS: Use baking soda or a urine-neutralizing product containing enzymes on accident sites. For a deeper carpet cleaning, hire a professional (be sure to let them know pet odor is the problem). Also, keep pets' toys, bowls, bedding, and litter boxes clean. And pets should get regular baths and, ideally, not be home when prospective buyers are viewing your property. - CIGARETTES: Tar deposits are very hard to remove from fabrics, so, have drapes, upholstery and carpeting professionally cleaned. Also, clean hard surfaces with vinegar, excellent at demolishing those deposits. Wash walls with a vinegar-water solution, and then give them a fresh coat of paint. Empty and clean ashtrays - and don't smoke inside while your home's for sale! - COOKING: Until your property sells, avoid cooking strong-smelling foods like fish, don't deep-fry, and cook with windows open and fans on. Place a bowl of white vinegar near your stovetop while cooking to absorb odor-causing particles. Lemon also works: squeeze juice into a pot of boiling water; rub lemon slices on surfaces; run a rind through your disposal. - MOLD/MILDEW: To get rid of the odor, you need to address its sources, so your course of action will depend on whether the problem is a rug, a leak, or your bathroom, for instance. But, generally, to absorb musty smells from fabrics, use baking soda; for hard surfaces, use vinegar, lemon, or hydrochloric acid, all of which are highly effective fungus killers.

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Bank or Mortgage Broker?

4/2/2012

Your mortgage is likely the biggest financial arrangement you will ever enter. What's the difference between borrowing from a bank versus a Mortgage Broker? Bank: Financial institution with personal banking, credit card, loan and mortgage services. Lends money directly? Yes Assists in putting loan application together? Yes Advantages: Some people feel more comfortable consolidating all their financial services under one roof. Disadvantages:Mortgages are only one of the products banks offer, and as such, employee training is not focused specifically on all the mortgage intricacies in which Mortgage Brokers are educated. In addition, banks can only offer you their own products and rates. Your specific borrowing needs or qualifications may fall outside of their spectrum. Mortgage Broker: Licensed mortgage specialist with access to multiple lenders and mortgage products. Lends money directly? No Assists in putting loan application together? Yes Advantages: Mortgage Brokers focus on one thing only: Shopping the market to find the best rates and terms for their clients. Borrowers save time and money while those with unique needs or employment situations can usually find options through a Mortgage Broker not available through their bank. Disadvantages:While Mortgage Brokers are becoming more and more popular every year, some people may not yetbe familiar with their services. This is asimpleissue, solved by calling to set up a no-obligation mortgage consultation. If you're looking for a Mortgage Broker who will put your needs first and focus on your specific borrowing requirements, please call today!

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Put Your Tax Refund To Work For You!

3/26/2012

If you're expecting money back from your tax return this year, ask your mortgage broker how you can channel your refund into owning your home sooner! Here are some mortgage-savvy ideas to consider: 1.) If your mortgage has pre-payment privileges, why not apply your tax refund - or any annual lump sum payment - directly to your mortgage? You'll pay off your mortgage years faster, and could potentially save tens of thousands of dollars over the amortization of your mortgage. Let's go over the terms of your mortgage together to see how this could work in yourparticulararrangement! 2.) If your mortgage is up for renewal, consider paying as much as possible towards your mortgage before you renew. Again, applying any lump sum contribution towards your principal will save you years off your mortgage, andmany times in the contribution in mortgage payments. 3.) Consider using your tax refund to add value to you home by investing in a renovation. Updated kitchens and bathrooms are at the top of homebuyers' wish lists, so you may want to consider fixing yours to enjoy now, while knowing you're adding to your home's equity as well. 4.) Thinking of buying a second orvacation property? Your tax refund may be the jumpstart you need towards your down payment. A mortgage broker's job is to help you make smart mortgage decisions. Please call with any questions about your home loan needs.

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Second Mortgage: Second Chance

3/19/2012

Whether you find yourself worried about making payments for existing debts - auto loans, credit cards, medical bills, tuition fees, etc. - or you need money to repair or renovate your existing property, or are even considering a new business venture this year, you will want to learn about obtaining a second mortgage as a financing option. If you have equity in your home (calculated as being the difference between the current value of your home and the amount already paid towards the first mortgage), you can apply for a second mortgage. When you do, you'll notice that the interest rate is likely higher than that of your primary mortgage interest rate. The reason for this difference is that in the even a borrower defaults, the first mortgage will be paid off first, therefore putting the second mortgage in a somewhat higher risk category to the lender. Applying for a second mortgage is similar to the process you went through when you applied for your first mortgage. There is still paperwork to complete, options to compare and rates to negotiate. Alternatively, you may want to ask about the possibility of refinancing, in order to obtain the money you need. Direction on what's best for you, plus dedicated service and individual advice, are included in the support that we as a mortgage brokerage provide to our clients. Let's take some time to discuss the benefits and risks of all your options, to ensure you make the right decision for your own personal needs.

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Is Now a Good Time to Refinance?

3/5/2012

With interest rates at their lowest point in years, many Canadians are considering refinancing their mortgages to take advantage of the interest savings.It can be nerve-racking to make this type of decision though, especially if you are not clear on how refinancing works. Many homeowners miss the opportunity to save money through refinancing simply because they lack knowledge on how it works. Is refinancing a good idea for you? You know that having a lower interest rate will save you money, but is there a refinancing cost to consider too? There may be fees involved that you should be aware of in order to make the right decision. For example, you may incur a penalty for breaking the terms of your current mortgage. In addition, you'lll want to know about any legal fees to register a new mortgage. Having said that, once any costs have been accounted for, it is simple to calculate the true value of refinancing. Why not find out for certain? The numbers will tell the story and I want to help you see the real picture. If you have been wondering if you should refinance, but are getting different advice from different sources, please give me a call so we can work together with your unique situation to determine what's best. This education will provideyou with peace of mind, and could save you thousands of dollars in the future.

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Banks vs. Mortgage Brokers: What's the Difference?

2/27/2012

Banks offer mortgages; Mortgage brokers offer mortgages. What's the difference? The difference starts with the range of financing solutions offered. Banks offer their own products, a select group which may or may not satisfy your needs, while mortgage brokers have access to products, rates, terms and conditions from a wide variety of lenders - one of which is sure to have the financing solution that works for you, with no compromises. Hate haggling? You shouldn't have to, especially for something as important and complex as a mortgage. Instead, let's talk about the range of lending institutions available to you through a mortgage broker, and how it's the job of the broker to negotiate the features and benefits of the applicable programs on your behalf. You're busy, so you decide where and when you'd like to meet. Choose your home, your business, or whatever is convenient for you, at the time that best fits your schedule. Why go bank-to-bank to compare lending products, when a broker can bring the banks to you, through a no-obligation presentation of available loan options? Thedifference between your seeking financing from a bank, andyour asking a mortgage broker for assistance, is in thevalueto you, as a mortgage holder. It's in the time and effort spent to find the financing that fits your borrowing needs best. And it'sin the benefiting from the most current options on the market. Remember, mortgage brokers work for you, not for any one particular financial institution, which allows them unbarred opportunity to find you the best financing - and refinancing - arrangements. Please call today, to find out about the many services available to you.

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Questions for Your Mortgage Broker

2/21/2012

When applying for a mortgage, be prepared to answer a lot of questions, from confirming what you make versus what you owe, to your borrowing and repayment history, to your current financial status. In addition to preparing answers for your mortgage broker, you should also prepare your own list of questions, to make sure you understand all the specifics of the loan you're considering. Your first question could be to ask for an explanation of what types of mortgages are available, and what the difference is between them. A good mortgage broker will take the time to explain the differences between an open and a closed mortgage, a fixed and a variable rate, the term of the mortgage, the amortization period, pre-payment options and other specifics of different loan products that would make sense for your particular borrowing needs. Next, you'll want to compare interest rates on the various mortgages, and ask if you'd be able to lock in a rate for a fixed period of time, and if there's an associated fee. You'll want to talk about how much down payment you have, and how mortgage loan insurance works. Make sure you understand all the costs of your loan - including closing costs. The costs of an appraisal, credit report, inspection reports and taxes are just some of the things to budget for. Take the first step to a thorough understanding of your mortgage decision, by calling with all you questions, today!

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Income Inquiries

2/14/2012

One of the most important pieces of information you will need to provide when applying for a new mortgage is evidence of your gross annual income. To do this, you'll need to supply your mortgage broker with an employment letter, on company letterhead, confirming: - Your current gross or base income - How long you have worked at the company - Your title, or current position - Your status: full-time, regular part-time, contract, or casual The situation gets a little more involved if you are not working a permanent, full-time job. For example, contract workers may need to attach a copy of their contract to their employer's letter. Regular part-time or casual workers must break down their hourly wage and number of hours worked per pay period. Self-employed or commission-based workers, whose income typically changes from year-to-year, must usually submit two or three years worth of tax returns - although workers of any status should be prepared to provide the same. Be aware that income from sources other than employment can also be reported in order to qualify for a mortgage. This income may be generated from a pension, from investments, dividends or annuities, from rental income, from child tax credits, from child support or alimony payments, or from any other income of a continual nature. Often, borrowers only call their mortgage broker when they're ready to check out different rates, but you're encouraged to call right at the beginning of the mortgage process to gain help through all the different qualifications of applying for a mortgage. Do you have questions on any step of the mortgage application process? If so, please call today!

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Plan Ahead, Save Money!

2/6/2012

Time flies when you're busy and a hectic lifestyle doesn't leave a whole lot of time for pondering mortgage payments. So when homeowners receive their mortgage renewal notices in the mail, many are surprised that it's come up so quickly, and will often automatically renew with the same lender because it's the fastest, easiest thing to do, especially if they assume the lender will give them the best rate possible. Be aware that the rate and terms included in your mortgage renewal may not necessarily be the best available. In fact, many lenders will simply offer you the current posted rate for your renewal. We strongly suggest that you take a few minutesto have a good look at your new paperwork. Your financial situation and other factors in your life may have changed since you initially signed up for your mortgage, while the mortgage market itself may have developed products that may for your current situation better. My job as a mortgage broker is to make sure my clients get the best possible deal and most appropriate features in your mortgage loan, by presenting you with a selection of options that fir your individual scenario.Contact meup to four months before your mortgage matures, so that I can review what you currently have versus what is available in today's market. Remember, I work for you, not one individual lender, and I do have the time to sort through all the options in today's market to make sure you continue to receive the best financing to fit your situation.

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Understanding Mortgage Insurance

1/30/2012

Mortgage insurance is often misunderstood. There are two types of insurance related to mortgages. the first type - mortgage loan insurance - protects the lender in case the borrower defaults, and the second type - similar to a life insurance policy - protects the homeowner and family by making payments if the homeowner dies or becomes disabled and is unable to make payments. Mortgage loan insurance protects the lender in case you are unable to make your mortgage payments, and is therefore mandatory in Canada if you are purchasing a home with less than 20 percent down payment. Offered by the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) and a few other private insurance companies, the insurance premiums for this type of insurance are typically amortized right into your mortgage, so you do not pay a lump sum upfront. Talk to us about how mortgage loan insurance can help you qualify for a new mortgage with less money down and with better terms! The second type of mortgage insurance is mortgage payment protection for you - the homeowner - to help pay your mortgage in case of your death or disability. There are many types of mortgage payment protection insurance plans, available from any licensed insurance agent, and the monthly premiums are based on your individual situation. Please feel free to contact us if youwould likemore information about mortgage insurance, or about any other matters relating to a new or existing mortgage loan.

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Mortgage Matters - Justifying Your Price

1/16/2012

Ideally, you'd never have to haggle over your selling price. While there's not much you can do to prevent buyers from offering less than you're asking, there are some things you can do to help justify your asking price. Have a home inspection done before your property goes on the market. A documented, impartial report verifying that your home is in good condition helps substantiatea higher listing price. If the report reveals any defects, disclosing them up front via a seller's inspection helps justify your price given your home's current condition, minimizing opportunities for prospective buyers to negotiate you down. Many buyers, however, want - and are willing to pay for - homes that are move-in ready. So if you do ensure that any defects revealed by the report get addressed prior to listing and if you take care of all those little fixes you've been putting off - the light switches that don't work, the missing cabinetry hardware, the toilet whose handle you have to jiggle - you can justify a higher asking price. Making your home move-in ready, so as to substantiate your asking price, also means giving it a fresh coat of paint in a neutral shade, replacing your flooring as needed, again in a neutral tone, and cleaning it until it shines. If you want to go the extra mile, have your home professionally staged. Staging can help justify your asking price by distinguishing your property from others on the market, and positioning your home more favorably in the minds of prospective buyers by appealing to their emotions and creating an environment in which they can picture themselves living.

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3, 2, 1... Happy New Home!

1/11/2012

Happy New Year 2012 Welcome to 2012. Are you ready for all the real estate opportunities the New Year will bring? The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) remains positive about housing in our country, leading many homeowners to consider moving, refinancing or even investing in a second property. Canada's housing market remains stable amid continuing financial market volatility, contributing to Canadian's confidence in the economy and providing support for Canadian economic growth, said Gregory Klump, CREA Chief Economist. Interest rates are expected to remain low for longer, and evidence suggests that recent changes to mortgage regulations are preventing the kind of excesses they were designed to avert. Both of these developments are good news for the housing market. CREA President Gary Morse supports Klump's views, adding, The Canadian housing market remains a bright spot against a backdrop of mixed headline news about the global economy. Low mortgage rates continue to draw buyers to the housing market, while recently tightened mortgage regulations are working as intended. If you have questions about financing real estate in 2012, remember that a qualified mortgage broker is skilled in finding the right funding for clients, educated in all the regulations surrounding those dealings, licensed and committed to ensuring that the smoothest, most competent financial transactions transpire on your behalf, saving you time, money and frustration. Whether you're looking for a new mortgage, have questions on your existing mortgage, or just need an update on today's market and the latest trends in real estate financing, please remember you're welcome to call at any time for a no-obligation discussion.

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Why Do Our Kids Need a Post-Secondary Education Nowadays?

12/15/2011

(NC)—In an increasingly competitive society, where more and more jobs require some sort of diploma or degree, it's never been more important for parents to start talking about post-secondary education with their children. After all, experts say Canada must take full advantage of a better educated population and a highly qualified workforce if we are to succeed economically and compete in a global economy. Also, a highly skilled workforce fosters innovation, social development and opportunities for individuals to advance in the labour market. If you have children at home and your dream is to send them to college, university or trade school after they graduate from high school, there are many ways you can start the ball rolling. Through the Canada Learning Bond (CLB) and the Canada Education Savings Grant (CESG), the federal government gives money to parents to start saving now even if college or university is years away. www.newscanada.com

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Mortgages for the Self-Employed

12/5/2011

If you are one of the approximately 2.5 million self-employed workers in Canada, or one of the millions more who generate your income through commission-based sales, you may have had a difficulty in the past arranging competitively-priced mortgage financing. Banks have traditionally shied away from lensing money to the self-employed, as without a file full of predictable pay stubs to back you up; lenders may not feel confident that you can meet your mortgage obligations. However, with the rising amount of workers moving into independent employment arrangements, the time has come for lending institutions to look at this particular market in a more accepting manner. As a general rule, you can prepare for your loan application by: - Working on a good credit record. Ensure your income tax has been filed, and you owe no money to Revenue Canada. Check that all payments on your credit cards or other loans are up-to-date. - You'll need to provide proof of how long you have been self-employed (three or more years is ideal), plus your incorporation number and GST number. - You'll find that it's often easier to secure financing for a property that's in or near a major city centre. Many business-for-self owners deduct expenses in lieu of extra income, something that doesn't fit into the regular bank accounting structure. A smart financial strategy for your business is to minimize taxable income, but when your final numbers are plugged into a regular chartered bank's lending criteria, they may view you as a high-risk borrower. Please call us for helpful tips on preparing your loan application; we can help you prepare for, and find, financing precisely designed for your independent work situation.

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Resolution #1: Pay Down Mortgage!

11/21/2011

With the holiday season approaching, it's wise to focus on bigger goals, especially if doing so will help you prevent overspending on gifts and non-essentials. Instead of focusing on shopping for the upcoming holidays before your goals for 2012, why not reverse the order and set your priorities now? For example, if your goal is to pay off your mortgage sooner, consider these suggestions: 1. INCREASE THE FREQUENCY OF YOUR PAYMENTS. Let's calculate how much you could save by paying biweekly instead of monthly. You could reduce the term of your loan and save hundreds of dollars in annual interest costs! 2. DECREASE THE AMORTIZATION OF YOUR LOAN. If you can afford higher payments, choose a shorter amortization period and pay substantially less interest over the duration of the loan. 3. PAY AS MUCH AS YOU CAN for your down payment and your monthly payments. Don't pay more that you can comfortably afford. However, if interest rates decrease when it's time to renew your mortgage, for instance, then keep your mortgage payments the same, allowing more money to go directly to your principal. 4. USE EXTRA MONEY FOR AN ANNUAL LUMP SUM PAYMENT. Expecting an end-of-year bonus? Why not apply any windfalls that you receive directly to your principal to help pay off your mortgage faster and reduce your annual interest costs? Please feel free to contact us for other simple but practical mortgage-smart tips.

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Canadian Real Estate on Solid Ground

11/14/2011

The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA)has revised its forecast for home sales activity via the Multiple Listing Service ® for 2011 and 2012, and the outlook is positive! Overall, sales activity and prices have come in stronger than expected this year. In fact, instead of its original prediction that sales would decline by about one percent in 2011, CREA is now forecasting a slight rise in national sales activity, to 450,800 units by the end of 2011. With mortgage rates lower than they have been in decades, many people are viewing this as the perfect time to buy real estate, or to refinance the property they already own. Whether you or your friends or family are looking to buy a first home or a second (vacation or retirement) property; if you're considering upsizing or downsizing from your existing home; or even if you simply want to know if you can save on your monthly mortgage obligation through refinancing, you'll want the most current information available. Please remember that the latest rates and information are just a phone call away. Contact The Financial Forumtoday to find out of you can save on a new loan, or if you can reduce your borrowing costs by refinancing an existing mortgage. If you have some equity in your home, have a good credit rating and a steady income, you may be surprised at what is available to you.

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'Reward' Yourself With Holiday Savings This Year

11/7/2011

(NC)—While many will be embracing the holidays with tinsel, roast turkey and metres of wrapping paper and ribbons, Canadians spend an average of $587 each on food, gifts and entertainment every holiday season according to a recent TD Holiday Poll. Christina Panay, Vice President of Credit Cards, TD Canada Trust, offers her advice on how Canadians can use their credit cards wisely to save and maximize their holiday shopping experience this year: • Redeem rewards points to put towards your holiday gifts – A good credit card will give you the freedom and flexibility to redeem your rewards points on a wide range of gifts or gift cards from top retailers to help you afford your holiday shopping this year. For example, the TD Rewards website www.tdrewards.com is a 'one-stop-shop' for holiday shoppers, offering thousands of unique gift ideas like a new watch for dad or a gift card to an exclusive day spa for mom. • Shop online – Credit cards offer the highest level of protection when shopping online, so take advantage of the ease and convenience of internet shopping for holidays. Many online retailers offer 1 to 2-day delivery, so if you're a last minute shopper you'll still have time to shop online and have the perfect gifts wrapped and delivered before it's too late. • Track your spending – A credit card is a great tool to help track and monitor your holiday spending. Check your account regularly to ensure you're sticking to your budget and adjust your spending accordingly. Remember to pay your bill in full and on time once your bill arrives. www.newscanada.com

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TFSA 101: Managing Your Tax-free Savings

11/4/2011

(NC)—A recent survey by ING Direct finds many Canadians don't understand the basic rules of the tax-free savings account. The majority of Canadians indicated they have a vague idea (37%) or don't understand how the TFSA works (14%), and many Canadians were not able to properly identify who was responsible for tracking withdrawals and contributions or whether or not TFSA contributions resulted in a tax deduction. To ensure you're taking full advantage of your tax-free savings account and not being penalized for saving, here are some dos and don'ts to keep in mind when managing your TFSA: Do Keep Track of Your Own Contributions and Withdrawals - One of the benefits of a TFSA is the ability to re-contribute money you've withdrawn from your account, though not until the following year. If you're making multiple contributions to and withdrawals from your TFSA, it's important to keep records of your transactions so you aren't charged a penalty for over contributing to your account. Remember that although the government will determine your remaining available TFSA contribution limit for the coming year when you file your tax return, it is your responsibility to track your withdrawals and contributions so you don't exceed your annual limit. Don't Treat Your TFSA asa Regular Savings Account - Treating your TFSA as a regular savings account can not only result in over-contributions from the constant withdrawals and deposits, but you also lose out on the benefit of compound interest—interest that is also tax-free. Do Manage Multiple TFSAs Wisely - Over a quarter of Canadians (27%) think you can only have one TFSA, but Canadians can have TFSAs with more than one financial institution. Keep in mind the annual contribution limit is $5,000 per year, not per account, so with multiple TFSAs it's even more important to keep detailed records of contributions and withdrawals so you don't exceed your limit Do Focus on the “Tax Free” Part, Not Just the “Savings Account” - The term tax-free “savings account” is something of a misnomer since Canadians can hold a variety of investments within a TFSA, including GICs, mutual funds, ETFs and stocks and bonds. A majority of Canadians (47%) have their TFSA funds invested in a savings account, followed by mutual funds (19%), GICs (13%) and stocks and bonds (10%). To get the best bang for your buck, look for investment options with low-fees and no commissions. Because the money in your TFSA is earning interest tax-free, you won't have to pay income tax on the earnings you make through these various investment products. Do Understand the Tax Implications of a TFSA - Over a third of Canadians (35%) said they were unsure whether or not they receive a tax deduction for contributions to a TFSA, while 8% believe they do. Unlike an RRSP, contributions made to your TFSA don't result in a tax deduction. One in 10 Canadians believes they have to pay tax when withdrawing funds from a TFSA, while a third of Canadians said they weren't sure. Contrary to RRSP rules, you don't have to pay income tax when you withdraw funds from your TFSA since contributions are made with after-tax dollars. In addition, TFSA withdrawals don't affect your ability to qualify for federal benefits, so you're not penalized for saving. www.newscanada.com

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RIM Starts To Build Bridge Over "App Gap"

10/20/2011

CHRIS UMIASTOWSKI - The Globe and Mail Chris Umiastowski spent over a decade working as a technology analyst on Bay Street. He now works as an independent analyst and strategy consultant and is blogging from the BlackBerry Developer Conference for the Globe and Mail. Ever since Apple Inc. launched the App Store for the iPhone, Research in Motion Ltd. has been stuck playing catch-up. Relative to Apple, RIM has a history of offering a less powerful operating system and weak developer tools. This has resulted in not only fewer, but far less attractive mobile apps within BlackBerry App World. Industry pundits have referred to this problem as the app gap. After attending the BlackBerry Developer Conference (DevCon) in San Francisco this week, I can confidently say this problem is on its way to becoming a part of the past. The primary reasons for this are third party software developer kits and HTML5. In speaking to gaming experts at DevCon, it is clear to me that most of the big name games are not programmed using native developer tools for iPhone or Google's Android. Instead, they are coded using third-party platforms such as Marmalade or Unity. Both of these platforms now support BlackBerry. Dozens of high quality 3D games have recently been released to BlackBerry App World. Aside from gaming, most other apps need to do a good job of presenting content to the user. This could involve weather forecasts, financial data, news, or location based services. In the past, BlackBerry developers have had to program these capabilities using Java. Today, the recognized path forward by developers is to use HTML5. This is a web-based programming language that allows a developer to write code one time, but publish an app for several mobile platforms including Apple's iOS, Android and BlackBerry. Over the past two days at DevCon I've spoken to dozens of attendees about the future of mobile apps. What has become clear to me is that RIM will not suffer from an app gap problem in the future. HTML5 and third party gaming developer kits allow developers to deploy their applications to all of the major mobile phone platforms without re-coding their apps for each platform. For RIM, this solves a major problem. It levels the playing field. It means that customers won't worry about being stuck with empty virtual shelves in their mobile app store. It means that mobile apps are less likely to be a source of competitive advantage for any one particular platform in the future. RIM’s goal is to deliver a compelling mobile app experience for its consumers while maintaining a strong commitment to enterprise customers and a continued focus on security. Collaboration with third-party gaming developer platforms and strong HTML5 initiatives look to me like a huge step in the right direction for RIM. It may not sound terribly exciting for RIM to play catch up to iOS and Android, but we need to remember the company has over 70 million active BlackBerry users, and this number is growing substantially every quarter. Every step RIM takes to catch up to the two leading smartphone platforms means that Microsoft has more work to do in order to beat out RIM for the #3 position in the smart phone platform race. I’ll be leaving DevCon today. I came here to speak to as many developers as possible. I came with a fairly skeptical view on RIM’s future. I wanted to leave with a better understanding of the company’s competitive position. As an investor, this is not a story where you can draw conclusions based on any one particular conference. But I feel more comfortable as a shareholder having attended DevCon. I’m not ready to say that I’ll remain a long-term shareholder, but I will be hanging onto my shares for now. I’m anxious to see how RIM executes with the Playbook 2.0 relaunch, and the initial launch of QNX-powered smartphones in early 2012.

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BlackBerry Users Face Technical Glitches for 2nd Day

10/11/2011

The Canadian Press Date: Tuesday Oct. 11, 2011 11:23 AM ET BlackBerry users experienced technical glitches for a second day after an unexplained problem cut off Internet and messaging services Europe, South America, the Middle East and Africa. BlackBerry users experienced technical glitches with their smartphones for a second day after an unexplained problem cut off Internet and messaging services Europe, South America, the Middle East and Africa. The new round of troubles on Tuesday involved the BlackBerry's popular messaging service which was not fully operational, with multiple users reporting issues in sending and receiving messages. Angry smartphone users posted on Twitter to vent frustration with the company and bemoan the loss of their messaging capabilities, questioning why the company took so long to restore services. RIM said some users in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, India, Brazil, Chile and Argentina are experiencing messaging and browsing delays. We are working to restore normal service as quickly as possible, the Waterloo, Ont., company said in a statement. We apologize for any inconvenience this has caused. RIM has about 70 million BlackBerry subscribers around the world. The latest round of technical problems come as shareholder Jaguar Financial Corp. (TSX:JFC) increased pressure on the smartphone maker Tuesday to either sell or split up the company and shake up management. Vic Alboini, chairman and chief executive of Toronto-based Jaguar, said a total of 12 institutional shareholders including Jaguar are calling for changes at the company. Together they own about eight per cent of the BlackBerry maker's stock, he said. Alboini noted that the other shareholders don't want to be named publicly at this time. The head of Jaguar said the changes that are being pushed for at RIM won't happen quickly. I suspect this is not going to be a sprint, Alboini said. This is going to be a marathon. He said appointing an independent chairperson to RIM's board of directors would be the most immediate change that could happen. It would take five of the nine directors to appoint a new chairperson. As for the technical problems RIM is experiencing, he said it happens from time to time with technology companies and won't have an effect on his campaign. All companies get bugs and have issues so I don't think it's appropriate for us to zero in on RIM, he said. If it became a critical issue that could not be fixed, and it was evidence of a totally broken situation, that's different. The glitches with the messaging feature of the smartphones came after RIM said late Monday that services were fully operational and the unexplained issue responsible for delays in subscriber services had been resolved. The issue was resolved and services are operating normally, the Waterloo, Ont, company said in a statement. However, problems persisted on Tuesday with several European carriers responding to customer concerns about the outage. In Britain, Vodafone UK told customers via Twitter that service was not fully restored. T-Mobile UK blamed a European-wide outage on the BlackBerry network which it said was affecting all mobile operators. Etisalat, in the United Arab Emirates, apologized for the further interruption to Blackberry services, once again due to RIM problems. Kenya's Safaricom Ltd. said on Twitter that its Blackberry customers were experiencing a technical fault and apologized for any inconvenience. RIM faces major hurdles as it deals with mounting competition in the smartphone market and the growing speculation among analysts and industry experts that its days of rapid growth are behind it. RIM was once worth about $70 billion and has, from time to time, been Canada's most valuable company. Today it has a market value of about $12 billion or so and shareholders have complained about its lagging stock price and corporate leadership. RIM did not give an explanation for the glitch that occurred on Monday, but some telecommunications companies in the Middle East and Europe laid the blame at the Canadian company's door. Among the companies reporting problems at that time were Qtel Qatar, Etisalat in the United Arab Emirates, Dubai-based Du, Zain Kuwait and Bahrain Telecommunications Co. With files from The Associated Press Read more: http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20111011/blackberry-service-disruptions-spur-shareholder-pressure-111011/#ixzz1aUkFi1iG

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Another Tumultous Day Likely Amid Market Fluctuation

10/5/2011

CTVNews.ca Staff Date: Wed. Oct. 5 2011 8:15 AM ET A currency trader reacts at the foreign exchange dealing room of the Korea Exchange Bank headquarters in Seoul, South Korea, Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2011. (AP / Lee Jin-man) It could be another volatile day on the Toronto Stock Exchange after the market officially entered bear market territory on Tuesday. For a market to reach the ‘bear' designation it must lose 20 per cent of its peak value, and remain there for some time, said BNN's Michael Kane. Typically the marketplace or the street thinks the markets must stay down, and as a matter of fact several indexes, not just one, must stay down 20 per cent for a couple of months before you're in a bear market, historically speaking, Kane told CTV's Canada AM. The TSX peaked in the spring around early April, and has been up and down ever since. About $500 billion worth of stock value has been wiped out on the Canadian market since the peak, largely due to fears about European and U.S. debt troubles. Almost $250 million of the $500 million lost has evaporated in the past month alone. The markets plunged during the day on both Bay Street and Wall Street on Tuesday, but then climbed back up in the last 40 minutes of trading before the closing bell. The jump came as word emerged that European governments were planning to bail out some of the continent's struggling banks. The S and P/TSX composite index came back from a 404-point drop to close down 74 points at 11,178. The Dow Jones was down more than 200 points but then gained 153 points. The volatile ups and downs have analysts increasingly worried about the prospect of another recession. As stock values drop, traders typically sell their shares as prospects for future growth erode. When that happens, companies are usually forced to cut costs by announcing layoffs or shutting down production -- which contributes to the likelihood of a recession. Canadians' investment plans and retirement funds also suffer, as equity investments or mutual funds take a hit. James Marple, a senior economist with TD Bank, said the current problems are driven largely by the ongoing debt turbulence in Greece. He said the storm is growing. The problem is Greece is probably containable if you could keep it to Greece, but as we've seen it doesn't stay in Greece it goes to the periphery countries and even now to the core European countries of Italy and even France is of some concern, Marple told Canada AM. They haven't been able to fence it to Greece and it's gotten to the point we've got to deal with these losses and brace for impact. Read more: http://www.ctv.ca/CTVNews/TopStories/20111005/markets-greece-TSX-economy-111005/#ixzz1ZuqV84ih

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Inflation Heats Up In August

9/21/2011

Julian Beltrame - The Globe and Mail Inflation in Canada rose above the Bank of Canada's comfort level last month as higher prices for gasoline and food pushed the rate up four notches to 3.1 per cent, Statistics Canada reported Wednesday. The surprisingly strong gain in the cost of consumer goods reverses a recent trend towards more moderate inflation, which had seen the rate fall from 3.7 during May to 2.7 in July. On a month-to-month basis, prices rose 0.3 per cent from July to August. Core or underlying inflation, which excludes volatile items such as energy and some foods, also saw a sizable increase to 1.9 from 1.6 per cent, pushing close to the central bank's two-per-cent target. In a speech Tuesday, Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney said he was not concerned about inflation and would not raise interest rates to deal with the issue. The bank's mandate is to keep consumer prices within a range of one and three per cent, and as close to two as possible. With the global economy entering what the International Monetary Fund called a “new dangerous phase,” most analysts agree that inflation will moderate as demand diminishes. But at the moment Canada is getting the worst of both scenarios, stubbornly high inflation and a slowing economy. Gasoline and food, two items that constitute significant portions of household spending, continue to be big drivers of annual inflation. Gasoline was 22.8 per cent more expensive last month than in August 2010, food cost 4.4 per cent more, and food bought at grocery stores was five per cent higher. “Excluding food and energy, the consumer price index increased 1.5 per cent in August after advancing 1.2 per cent the previous month,” Statistics Canada noted. Passenger vehicles, electricity, homeowners' house and mortgage insurance, telephone service and jewelry also contributed to the increase in annual inflation from July, the agency added. Not all consumer goods and services are rising, however. Mortgage interest costs declined 1.7 per cent, video equipment was down 13.9 per cent, prescribed medicines slipped 3.9 per cent, natural gas one per cent, and digital computing equipment and devices fell 10.4 per cent. Still, prices rose in all eight major components tracked by Statistics Canada, and increased at a faster pace than the previous month in five of those components. Prices also increased at a faster pace for eight of the 10 provinces, with New Brunswick continuing to experience the highest inflation in the country at 4.1 per cent.

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Turmel To Set Rules For New Democrats Seeking Leadership

9/14/2011

NDP Interim Leader Nycole Turmel appears on Canada AM from Quebec, Wednesday, Sept. 14, 2011. The Canadian Press Date: Wed. Sep. 14 2011 6:54 AM ET QUEBEC — Some of the NDP's most effective critics on some of the hottest files could be sidelined during the fall and winter sittings of Parliament. Interim Leader Nycole Turmel is expected today to order New Democrat MPs to give up their shadow cabinet posts if they decide to seek the party's permanent leadership. She's also expected to lay down other rules for leadership contenders during a caucus retreat to plot strategy for Monday's resumption of Parliament. Among those considering a leadership bid are some of the most prominent members of the NDP's front bench: deputy leader and House leader Thomas Mulcair, deputy leader and health critic Libby Davies, finance critic Peggy Nash, foreign affairs critic Paul Dewar, industry critic and caucus chairman Peter Julian and environment critic Megan Leslie. New Democrats insist they have plenty of bench strength to fill any gaps created by the leadership contest. What's more, they maintain the party's new young bucks will get a chance to shine in the House of Commons while some of the more experienced MPs are off campaigning to succeed Jack Layton, who died last month from cancer. We have 102 very dynamic, very hard-working members of Parliament and I've no doubt that with the talent we have throughout our caucus that we're going to be holding the Harper government to account throughout the period of the parliamentary session, says Julian. Most of the prospective leadership contenders say they'll respect whatever decision Turmel makes about their shadow cabinet roles. But potential candidate Nathan Cullen, the party's associate natural resources critic, says contenders should simply volunteer to step aside, without being pushed. Nycole should make the suggestion but I think it should come from all the candidates too. We should just do this thing, he says. Allowing contenders to maintain high-profile, influential roles within the party, shadow cabinet or caucus would create potential conflicts of interest and an uneven playing field for other candidates, Cullen adds. Leslie agrees the rules must ensure there's no unfair advantage for anyone. For me, the big question is what's fair and how do we make sure the playing field is as level as possible. Both within the group of people who are MPs who are running and people who aren't MPs who are running ... whatever we do has to be fair. Party president Brian Topp, the only formally declared candidate so far, has already recused himself from all decisions regarding the leadership contest. And he's promised to step down altogether as soon as he officially files his leadership registration papers. Julian, who sits on the party's federal council, has also recused himself and says he'll resign as interim caucus chairman should he decide to run. As for his industry critic's post, he says that's up to Turmel.

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Loonie Briefly Slips Below Parity, Then Bounces Back

9/12/2011

CTVNews.ca Staff Date: Mon. Sep. 12 2011 9:05 AM ET The loonie fell briefly below parity but then moved back to positive territory compared to the greenback ahead of the opening of North American stock markets on Monday. After falling as low as 98.84 cents US earlier in the morning, the Canadian dollar climbed to 100.19 cents US. The fluctuations come ahead of what is expected to be a tumultuous trading day as European markets react to Europe's ongoing debt problems and worries that Greece will default on its loans. The uncertainty has led investors to turn to the greenback as a safe haven currency, which accounts for the fluctuations in the loonie. BNN's Michael Kane said world markets were reacting to North American declines recorded on Friday after Euro markets had closed. The world stock markets are looking shaky this morning, Kane told CTV's Canada AM, noting that Friday's 2.6 per cent plunge in major industries on Wall Street was being echoed in world markets. Tokyo is down 2.3 per cent, Hong Kong fell 4.3 per cent, European markets are down in the range of 2.5 to 4.4 per cent and shares of French banks BNP Paribas, Credit Agricole and Societe Generale plunging today on worries their rating might be cut by Moody's Investors Service, Kane said.

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Olivia Chow Says Layton's Legacy Lives On

9/7/2011

Olivia Chow sits down with CTV's Canada AM to discuss the loss of her husband Jack Layton, Wednesday, Sept. 7, 2011.CTVNews.ca Staff Date: Wed. Sep. 7 2011 8:17 AM ET Olivia Chow said she sees her husband Jack Layton in every kind and generous deed performed by those around her. Layton lost his battle to cancer last month after temporarily stepping down earlier this summer as leader of the New Democrat Party. His death sent many across the country into a period of mourning, with tens of thousands paying their respects in Ottawa, where his body was lying in state, and then in Toronto, where it was lying in repose before a state funeral. Thousands of mourners wrote messages of support in downtown Toronto's Nathan Philip Square in a chalk tribute that took up much of the concrete park and many across the country expressed their condolences. Chow told CTV's Canada AM the outpouring of grief has been accompanied by an overwhelming show of support for her family. It feels like a big warm blanket covering me with love and support, and it's just wonderful, it proves Jack is right to be optimistic, Chow said. He believes in the goodness in people and he feels if you touch and connect with that goodness, some call it love, others call it hope, then people will respond... and the outpouring is affirmation of that belief. Chow, who recently said she will not try to succeed her husband as leader of the Official Opposition, said it was especially difficult to cope in the first few days after Layton died. Eventually she sought advice from others who had gone through similar experiences and turned to coping mechanisms such as swimming and running, and putting her family's affairs in order, to help her deal with her grief. There's also that belief that Jack and I both shared that some of the things we share, some of the values we have, are eternal, like love, like hope for the future, like believing that when we come together we can make things happen, we can change the world, Chow said. Those kinds of things help me deal with not being able to spend more time with him, dealing with his death. Chow said Layton's legacy is the belief, as he wrote in the final line of his farewell letter to Canadians, that optimism is better than despair, and that politics doesn't have to be a divisive, cynical business. Jack kept talking about working together no matter where you come from, and in order to work together you have to trust each other whether it's in life, in work, in personal life, or in politics, she said. Layton will live on through all those who were inspired by his life, Chow said. Every time I see an act of kindness or generosity I think ah, his legacy lives on in action, so it makes it a lot easier.

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Today's Tidbit

9/6/2011

Conditional Offer - An offer to purchase a home provided certain conditions, agreed upon by both buyer and seller, are met within an agreed upon time frame. Such conditions typically include completion of a home inspection, the buyer's ability to secure financing, and the sale of the buyer's current home. Once the conditions are met, the contract becomes binding and the buyer is then obligated to purchase the property; if the conditions aren't satisfied, the buyer is not obligated to buy.

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Conrad Black Heads Back to Prison Today

9/6/2011

Conrad Black sits down with Lisa LaFlamme for a CTV exclusive one-on-one interview. CTVNews.ca Staff Date: Tuesday Sep. 6, 2011 8:18 AM ET Former media baron Conrad Black returns to prison Tuesday to serve out the remainder of his sentence for fraud and obstruction of justice charges. Black is scheduled to serve out an additional 13 months after Judge Amy St. Eve ruled earlier this summer his sentence was not complete. Black, who has been free on bail since last summer, living in a five-star hotel in New York City, believes he will be released from prison in about eight months. I think that he's putting the bravest face on it that he possibly can, George Tombs, author of Robber Baron: Lord Black of Crossharbour, told CTV's Canada AM. To be going back to prison at the age of 67 for a 13-month stretch, especially in a federal penitentiary in the United States, is obviously very difficult. The location where Black will be serving his sentence has not yet been released. Lord Black of Crossharbour was convicted for obstruction of justice and three counts of fraud in a trial that ended in 2007. He was released last summer on US$2-million bail after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling on the honest services law used in his trial put his convictions into question. However, St. Eve ruled in June that Black still has to serve 42 months less the 29 months he had already served, for a total of 13 months. Black's wife Barbara Amiel, 70, who suffers from an autoimmune condition, collapsed in court when St. Eve handed down the decision. Tombs said another stretch in prison will be difficult for the couple who will likely be permitted only one visit per week. It isn't clear what will happen once Black's sentence is complete. He is no longer a Canadian citizen after former prime minister Jean Chretien enforced an archaic law that said no Canadian citizen could become a British lord, while also retaining their Canadian citizenship. Black chose to give up his Canadian citizenship as a result of the high-profile battle. However, he told CTV's Chief Anchor and Senior News Editor Lisa LaFlamme in a recent exclusive sit-down television interview that he hopes to return to Canada once his sentence is complete. Tombs said Black faces two years probation in the U.S. following hs release from jail. But since he isn't a citizen there either -- but rather is considered a non-resident alien scheduled for eventual deportation -- it isn't clear whether he'll be required to remain in the U.S. for his probation, or be allowed to serve it elsewhere. That's hard to take for someone who considered himself lifelong to be the greatest friend to the United States that there ever was, an expert on American politics, a friend of numerous presidents, secretaries of state et cetera, Tombs said. Black still maintains his British citizenship and can return to the U.K. once his sentence is complete, if he chooses to do so. At one time Black's media empire included the Chicago Sun-Times, The Daily Telegraph of London, the National Post and a handful of small papers across the U.S. and Canada.

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Congratulations, Mortgage-Savvy Canadians!

8/29/2011

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) provided some interesting - and positive! - insight into the way Canadian mortgage holders view their mortgage obligations, according to the CMHC 2011 Mortgage Consumer Survey. Overall, Canadians appear to enter the housing market with both eyes open, doing extensive research before they purchase, and then are diligent in their mortgage management following their purchase. After all, Pierre Serre, Vice President, Insurance Product and Business Development at CMHC noted, Buying a home is one of the biggest financial decisions most Canadians will make in their lifetimes. The survey showed that Canadians take, on average, 11 months to plan their purchase, and 88 percent of homebuyers indicated they had a good sense of how much mortgage they could afford before purchasing a home. Many of these homebuyers no doubt took advantage of the research provided to them through their mortgage brokers, whose job it is to provide homebuyers with a comprehensive insight into all their borrowing options. Following their home purchases, 75 percent of recent homebuyers surveyed felt it was very important to pay off their mortgage as soon as possible. To achieve this, 39 percent of recent buyers indicated they had arranged for higher mortgage payments than the minimum required, while 20 percent had made lump-sum payment since taking out their mortgage. Whether youhave questions about your current mortgage, or are thinking about taking out a new loan, please remember that you can call at any time for a discussion and advice, with absolutely no obligation.

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Gold Stocks Weigh on TSX Amid Positive Chinese Data

8/23/2011

The Canadian Press Date: Tuesday Aug. 23, 2011 10:06 AM ET TORONTO — The Toronto stock market was a little down on Tuesday despite data showing China's manufacturing sector slowing less than thought and a better-than-expected profit at Bank of Montreal. The SP/TSX composite index was off 11.06 points to 12,057.3 with the market weighed down by the gold sector was bullion prices fell back after a string of record high closes. The TSX Venture Exchange dipped 1.33 points to 1,765.43. The Canadian dollar was up 0.31 of a cent to 101.31 cents US as investors also took in a mixed reading on Canadian retail sales. Statistics Canada said that retail sales rose 0.7 per cent in June to $37.8 billion, a third consecutive monthly increase and a bit better than the 0.6 per cent reading that economists expected. However, retail sales excluding the auto segment decreased 0.1 per cent. Economists had expected a rise of 0.3 per cent. The agency said that higher sales and lower prices at new car dealers accounted for most of the 1.6 per cent increase in retail sales in volume terms. U.S. markets advanced as the Dow Jones industrial average climbed 29.71 points to 10,884.36. The Nasdaq composite index gained 9.18 points to 2,354.56 while the SP 500 index edged up 0.83 of a point to 1,124.65. The financial sector was 0.55 per cent higher after Bank of Montreal (TSX:BMO) kicked off quarterly earnings reports from the big Canadian banks. BMO turned in net income of $793 million in the three months ended July 31, up 18 per cent from the same time last year. Its adjusted net income was $843 million, or $1.36 per share, four cents higher than analyst estimates. BMO's revenue was $3.27 billion, up 13 per cent from the third quarter of fiscal 2010 and its shares climbed 51 cents to $57.86. National Bank (TSX:NA) hands in earnings Thursday while Royal Bank (TSX:RY) reports on Friday. Prices for oil and metals advanced following the release of HSBC's preliminary purchasing managers index for China's manufacturing sector. The index rose to 49.8 in August from 49.3 in July. Analysts said that there had been worries the reading would come in much worse. The October crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange climbed 24 cents to US$84.66 a barrel after running ahead about $2 on Monday, taking the energy index up 0.74 per cent. Canadian Natural Resources (TSX:CNQ) gained 68 cents to C$33.58 as the energy giant said its Horizon oilsands operation has resumed sales of synthetic crude, which were interrupted by a fire at the processing plant in January. It says it's ramping up production and expects to reach full capacity of 110,000 barrels per day of synthetic crude by next week. Imperial Oil (TSX:IMO) was ahead 48 cents to $39.40. The base metals sector rose 0.41 per cent as hopes for higher demand from China helped push the September copper contract on the Nymex up five cents to US$4.00 a pound. First Quantum Minerals (TSX:FM) lost 21 cents to C$19.85 while HudBay Minerals (TSX:HBM) rose 12 cents to $11.98. The gold sector was down 2.2 per cent as bullion prices slipped after nervous investors pushed the precious metal into record territory for the last four sessions. The December contract in New York was down $22.90 to US$1,869 and Barrick Gold Corp. (TSX:ABX) lost $1.16 top $50.48 and Goldcorp Inc. (TSX:G) faded $1.40 to $52.25. The news wasn't quite so positive from Europe, where economic indicators showed that failing efforts to resolve the eurozone debt crisis are cutting into economic activity and sentiment in the currency union's core. Markit's composite purchasing managers index for the eurozone was unchanged at 51.1 in August, signalling stagnation in the manufacturing sector and hardly any growth in the services sector. While analysts at Capital Economics had expected the index to deteriorate further from its 22-month low in July, they warned that the index is still dangerously close to recession territory. North American markets racked up gains Monday after the TSX and the Dow industrials both tumbled about four per cent last week on worries centred around a slowing global economy and the European government debt crisis. But trading was volatile and expected to remain that way this week as investors await a key speech by U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke during an annual economics conference in Wyoming on Friday. The Fed already pledged to maintain its super-low interest rates until at least 2013 but some economists are calling for a third round of massive bond-buying to pump money into the faltering U.S. economy. Elsewhere in the oilpatch, PetroMagdalena Energy Inc. (TSXV:PMD) reported that it has discovered a new light-oil field with its Petirojo-1 discovery well in Colombia and its shares rose 12 cents to $1.16. Caledonia Mining Corporation (TSX:CAL) has resolved a dispute with the Zimbabwean government over the future ownership of the company's Blanket gold mine. Under the settlement announced Tuesday, Caledonia will resubmit a new plan to sell control of the mine to black Zimbabwean owners under a national law that went into effect last year. Its shares added half a cent to 8.5 cents. In the U.S., H.J. Heinz Co.'s fiscal first-quarter net income slipped six per cent to US$226.1 million on charges related to some productivity initiatives, but adjusted results topped expectations as revenue climbed due to strength in emerging markets. The world's largest ketchup maker also lowered its fiscal 2012 adjusted earnings outlook and its shares fell $1.33 to US$50.71 in New York. And Swiss bank UBS AG said Tuesday it is cutting 3,500 jobs worldwide as part of an effort to save 2 billion Swiss francs annually by the end of 2013. The Zurich-based bank declined to say how the jobs cuts will be distributed geographically. The bank currently has 65,000 employees in more than 50 countries around the world. UBS shares rose 30 cents to US$13.49. Earlier in the day, Asian markets closed higher, tracing North American gains on Monday. Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 1.2 per cent and Hong Kong's Hang Seng gained two per cent. South Korea's Kospi jumped 3.9 per cent. Chinese shares advanced for the first time in six trading sessions as investors sought bargains following the release of the HSBC data. The benchmark Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.5 per cent and the Shenzhen Composite Index added 1.8 per cent. European markets were positive with London's FTSE index ahead 0.41 per cent, Frankfurt's DAX was up 0.92 per cent and the Paris CAC 40 gained 0.31 per cent.

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Jack Layton, 61, Dies After Struggle With Cancer

8/22/2011

NDP Leader Jack Layton pauses at a news conference in Toronto on Monday, July 25, 2011. (Nathan Denette / THE CANADIAN PRESS) Angela Mulholland, CTV News.ca Date: Mon. Aug. 22 2011 8:58 AM ET NDP Leader Jack Layton died early Monday morning after a struggle with cancer. He was 61 years old. The news comes mere weeks after Layton announced he had been diagnosed with a second form of cancer. The New Democratic Party issued a statement Monday on behalf of Layton's wife Olivia Chow, and his children Sarah and Michael Layton. We deeply regret to inform you that The Honourable Jack Layton, leader of the New Democratic Party of Canada, passed away at 4:45 a.m. today, Monday, Aug. 22, the statement said. He passed away peacefully at his home surrounded by family and loved ones. Layton's death is not only heartbreaking in how quickly it came after he announced his illness on July 25, but that it came so soon after what is considered Layton's greatest political achievement. After an entire life spent in politics -- first as an academic, then as a city councillor, then in federal politics-- Layton had been riding a wave of popularity ahead of his death. It was his personal popularity that many credit for the NDP's orange crush in the 2011 federal election. Buoyed by his party's success, Layton had even put the prime minister's office in his sights for the next election. Now, with his death, those dreams come to an end and put the very future of his party into doubt. While not everyone agreed with Layton's socialist views, there were few who didn't respect the man's passion and work ethic. The politician who had once been a scrappy city councillor with a brash, sometimes strident style, matured into a federal party leader renowned for his dedication. Layton's colleagues say he was a master politician who knew how to both work a crowd and work out compromise within his team. All the while, he seemed to never abandon the causes he held most dear: poverty, the environment, public transit, workers' rights. In the 2011 election, voters who had once seemed a little wary of the camera-loving politician appeared to finally connect with Layton, embracing his energy, his no-nonsense approach and his promises to represent the average Canadian in Parliament. Many voters, particularly in Quebec, said it was Layton himself that drew them to vote for his party and push the NDP into official Opposition status. Layton had likely dreamed of reaching the higher echelons of power his whole life. He had been steeped in politics from an early age, growing up in Hudson, Que., under a father who was a cabinet minister in Brian Mulroney's government and who became the Progressive Conservatives' caucus chairman. Layton's grandfather too was a cabinet minister, under Maurice Duplessis' Union Nationale government in Quebec, and his great-great-uncle was one of the Fathers of Confederation. The Layton political legacy continues today, with his son, Mike, now a Toronto city councillor as well. Layton became student council leader in high school and was voted by classmates as most likely to become a politician. He went on to study political science at McGill University and received his PhD in Political Science from York University. He briefly aligned himself with the Liberals while at McGill but, impressed by Tommy Douglas's opposition to the War Measures Act, he turned to the NDP in 1971. Layton married at 19, wedding his high school sweetheart, Sally Halford. They had two children: Mike, the Toronto city councillor; and Sarah, who works for the Stephen Lewis Foundation. But his marriage to Sally dissolved in 1983, shortly after Layton decided to leave behind life as a politics professor at Ryerson University (then called Ryerson Polytechnical Institute) and make a run for Toronto city council. A few years later, Layton met Olivia Chow, who was then a school board trustee, and married her in 1988. She ran for Toronto city council in 1991, the same year that Layton decided to make a bid for mayor. Layton lost badly to June Rowlands; but Chow won her council seat. Many have credited Chow, an ambitious politician in her own right, as being one of Layton's greatest assets, acting as both his closest adviser and his soulmate. Former Toronto city councillor Howard Moscoe told The Canadian Press he always thought of Layton and Chow as a single political-family unit. They were so good at playing the council, he said earlier this year. They were kind of meant for each other. Together, Layton and Chow became Toronto's political power couple, fighting for public transit, the homeless and sustainable urban development. As councillors, they were often accused of grandstanding, once wearing black gags to protest being silenced by other Toronto politicians when they attempted to object to a deal with Shell Oil. Layton loved to spend time in the outdoors with Chow and cycled to work every day while in Toronto and worked out in the House of Commons gym every week while in Ottawa. NDP MP Pat Martin once said that Layton and Chow even thought of their work as recreation. I've never met anybody so perfectly matched to a life in politics, Martin said of Layton. But Layton did have some brushes with controversy. In 1988, he came under fire when it emerged that he and Chow were living in a housing co-operative subsidized by the federal government, despite a combined income of $120,000. Toronto's solicitor cleared the couple of any wrong-doing, and the couple soon left the co-op and bought a house in Toronto's Chinatown. In the 2011 election, three days before voting day, it emerged that Layton had also been caught up in a sting on a Toronto massage parlour. Layton insisted he had entered the salon seeking a legitimate shiatsu massage and didn't know the place was used for illicit purposes. Police chose not to charge him in the sting. Despite the scandals and Layton's failed 1991 mayoralty bid, his ambitions didn't falter; they simply shifted. In 1994, he decided to make a run for federal politics, vying for a seat in the riding of Rosedale. Again, he fared badly, finishing fourth. He pressed on with his Toronto city council duties, but in another example of his trademark energy, he also took on work as well as the head of the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, where he said he broadened his understanding of the priorities of towns outside Toronto. Along the way, Layton also penned three books; Homelessness: the Making and Unmaking of a Crisis in 2000; Speaking Out: Ideas That Work for Canadians in 2004 and Speaking Out Louder in 2006. He ran again for MP in 1997, this time in the riding of Toronto-Danforth but lost yet again, to longtime incumbent Liberal, Dennis Mills. Layton was finally able to make his move into federal politics in 2003 by taking over as leader of the NDP from outgoing leader Alexa McDonough. He grabbed a seat in Parliament a year later, in the 2004 election. In that first federal election campaign in 2004, Layton insisted to reporters without any irony that his aim was to increase the party's standings from 13 seats to 150. The party earned 19 seats. But the NDP was able to win 15 per cent of the popular vote -- its best result in 16 years. Layton's flamboyant leadership style seemed to re-energize the party following the staid leaderships of McDonough and Audrey McLaughlin before her. He was constantly in front of the microphone, moving easily between English and French, always ready with the quick sound bites that had made him famous in Toronto. But Layton stumbled in that first federal campaign when he accused then-Liberal prime minister Paul Martin of being responsible for the deaths of homeless people because he had failed to provide funding for affordable housing. He managed to smooth out his edgy persona during the 2006 election campaign and consistently scored well in leadership polls, with voters giving him high marks in the areas of principle, honesty. Queen's University political scientist Jonathan Rose told CTV.ca during the 2006 campaign that voters seemed to respond to Layton because of his tireless campaigning and infectious energy. He has all the hallmarks of what we demand from traditional leaders: a clear persona, someone who has a high trust level, and someone who is able to articulate clearly what they believe, Rose said. Layton added 10 more seats for his party in the 2006 election, and then again in 2008, when the party's seat count rose to 37. Throughout the 2008 election campaign, Layton opened every speech with the eyebrow-raising declaration that he was running to be prime minister. Longtime friend Peter Tabuns said at the time that Layton was never anything if not an optimist. He is one of the most optimistic and hopeful people that I know, and I think that gives him a lot of strength to get through tough times, he told CP. Those tough times were soon to come, when Layton was diagnosed in early 2010 with prostate cancer. Layton chose to push through it, taking to the hustings for the 2011 election campaign with the save fervour as ever. He even suggested the illness gave him further motivation. People that go through serious illness – you can either go one way or the other. You can either become despondent about it all. Or it kind of rejuvenates you, makes you focus on what's important, he said in an interview with Metro news. The election began as a traditional two-horse race between the Conservatives and the Liberals, but at some point after the leaders' debate, Layton surged. Layton was suddenly no longer the third-place outsider; he was being embraced as the candidate of hope and change for those opposed to the Conservatives. Election Day brought what became known as the orange crush: 31 per cent of the popular vote for the NDP, 59 seats in Quebec, as well as 44 other seats across the country -- the party's best showing ever. Former Progressive Conservative prime minister Brian Mulroney told CTV News afterwards that he believed Quebecers embraced Layton because they thought of him as one of their own. He's always referred to here as, ‘Our boy, Jack, a good guy,' Mulroney said. Ahead of the 2011 campaign, many had said that with four elections already behind him, if the NDP didn't make big strides, this would likely be Layton's final federal election. In fact, it was Layton's last campaign. But not for the reason that anyone would have ever predicted.

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Loonie Makes Gains Amid Tame Inflation

8/19/2011

The Associated Press Date: Fri. Aug. 19 2011 9:09 AM ET A man walks past a screen displaying stock index in Hong Kong Friday, Aug. 19, 2011. (AP / Vincent Yu) TORONTO — The loonie made gains against its U.S. counterpart in early trading Friday as traders took in tame inflation data and awaited a economic update being delivered to a parliamentary committee. The Canadian dollar was ahead 0.10 of a cent at 101.27 cents US as a report showed inflation last month was lower than economists expected. Statistics Canada said the pace of inflation eased in July to 2.7 per cent as increases in the price of gasoline slowed. Economists had expected prices to rise 2.9 per cent on an annual basis. The gain compared with a 3.1 per cent increase for the consumer price index in June. It was the first time that inflation has been below three per cent since February. On a month-over-month basis, the core index was up 0.2 per cent in July, in line with economist expectations. The tame core reading will buy the Bank of Canada time to remain on the sidelines and is clearly no obstacle for rate cuts should global recession risks intensify, said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets. Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney will appear before the Commons finance committee this morning along with Finance Minister Jim Flaherty to update Canadians on the economy amid continued market turmoil and fears of a return to recession in the United States. Gold reached new heights Friday, soaring as high as US$1,881 an ounce as uncertainty about the global economy had anxious investors again snapping up the precious metal. In morning trading, the price backed off slightly, but remained $35 higher at US$1,857. Copper prices added two cents to US$3.96 a pound. Oil stepped back 91 cents to US$81.47 as investors feared a global slowdown might zap demand for crude.

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Canada Post Putting RIM's BlackBerry on Stamps

8/18/2011

Research In Motion Ltd. and the BlackBerry are putting their mark on snail mail. Canada Post is releasing a new commemorative stamp honouring the Canadian invented smartphones. The Canadian Press Date: Thursday Aug. 18, 2011 6:56 AM ET OTTAWA — Research In Motion Ltd. and the BlackBerry are putting their mark on snail mail. Canada Post is releasing a new commemorative stamp honouring the Canadian invented smartphones. The Crown corporation says the device freed information workers from their desks and changed the way the world communicates. The stamp is one of four being released to recognize Canadian inventions. The three others recognize the electric oven, the electric wheelchair and the cardiac pacemaker.

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Time to Employ ‘Buy Low, Sell High’ Strategy

8/17/2011

PREET BANERJEE - The Globe and Mail While most people are tearing their hair out over the recent market turmoil, for some it could be a blessing. “How?” you ask. Well, if you are decades away from retirement, especially if you've never invested before, now is a great time to start an investment portfolio. The average investor tends to wait for a few good years of growth in the markets before feeling confident about putting money into stocks. Conversely, they want to get out of the markets when prices have dropped. This can be described as “buy high, sell low.” This happens to be the formula for losing money. What we want is the opposite: buy low, sell high. It sounds like a simple concept, but in practice it is very hard to execute. When most media reports make it sound like the sky is falling, it's hard to get the courage to leap into the market. Sometimes you will hear statements such as “there were more sellers than buyers on the market today,” or “sellers were in control of markets, sending the indexes down,” or other imprecise comments. Let's take a look at the basic process of stock price movements. The current price of a stock is simply based on whatever the price was during the last transaction. If the price has gone up, it means that the most recent transaction occurred at a price higher than the previous transaction. If the price has gone down, it means that the most recent transaction occurred at a price lower than the previous transaction. Further, that most recent transaction could have been for one share or 1 million shares – it doesn't matter, so long as there’s someone to buy what someone else is selling. It's imperative to understand this concept: You cannot sell a share if someone else will not buy it. So when a market is falling, the number of sellers does not necessarily have to be greater than the number of buyers. Sure, it's possible that thousands of investors each sell a few shares, and only one investor is buying them all up at a lower price than yesterday. But it's also possible that there is only one investor with many shares selling them in small lots to many buyers. The point I'm trying to make is that for prices to go down, someone has to be buying those shares. These are the investors who understand the concept of “buy low”. The next time you hear a reporter saying “more buying than selling” or vice versa, laugh and tune out. The amount of buying and selling is always exactly the same. If they say “sellers were in control of the market” when the market goes down, they are again mistaken. It's the buyers controlling the market in a decline. The market may be flooded with panicked investors looking to sell, but those shares only get unloaded when buyers step up to the plate. So why do some investors step up during market sell-offs? Past stock market behaviour doesn't tell us anything that helps us predict accurately what will happen in the future, but it’s worth pointing out some compelling statistics. Tacita Capital Inc., an investment counselling firm in Toronto, notes that since 1950 there have been 37 declines of 10 per cent or more on U.S. stock markets. The average decline was 19.7 per cent, and in 34 of the 37 declines, the market was up by 26.8 per cent on average one year later. For a well-diversified portfolio, there is a saying that “it's time in the market, not timing the market” that makes you money. But you can increase you likelihood of making better returns by doing both: investing for a long time and taking advantage of dips. If you are a younger investor, you've got the time. And with the recent market sell-offs now, you've got the dip, too. This happens to be the formula for making money.

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CREA Revises Forecast for 2011 Home Sales

8/16/2011

The Canadian Press Date: Tuesday Aug. 16, 2011 10:41 AM ET OTTAWA — The Canadian Real Estate Association has revised upward its forecast for national home resales in 2011, citing stronger than expected activity and prices in the second quarter. CREA previously had forecast a one per cent dip in sales this year compared with 2010. However, CREA said Tuesday that the strong second-quarter performance and momentum going into the third quarter means the resale market should finish this year slightly ahead of last year. Overall, 450,800 housing units are expected to be sold across Canada under its multiple listing service in 2011, up less than one per cent from 2010, and the average selling price will be slightly higher. About 90 per cent of resales in Canada are listed on MLS. On a regional basis, British Columbia's 2011 sales forecast has been revised slightly higher, while stronger than expected activity in Ontario is expected to offset slightly softer than anticipated demand in Quebec, Manitoba and Newfoundland. Meanwhile, the association says erosion in affordability due to higher prices has prompted it to make a slight, seven-tenths of a per cent downward revision in its sales outlook for 2012 to 447,000 units. That would be roughly on par with the 10-year average, CREA said. While there had been some talk of potential interest rate increases. That hasn't happened, said CREA president Gary Morse. In fact, rates have actually come down and are now expected to remain low for the remainder of this year and into 2012. It's a great opportunity to purchase a property with financing at very favourable rates. The national average home price is forecast to rise 7.2 per cent in 2011 to $363,500. This is an increase from the previous forecast, reflecting continued strong price growth in Vancouver in the second quarter of 2011 and acceleration in prices elsewhere, particularly Toronto. These two markets exert an outsized influence on the national average due to their relatively high level of activity and average price, CREA said. The national average home price is expected to moderate in the second half of 2011, returning to normal following a heavily skewed start to the year due to a surge in multimillion-dollar sales in selected areas of Greater Vancouver and a higher than normal share of overall sales in more expensive markets. Some of the expected moderation in the national average price is seasonal, with average price peaking in many local markets during the second quarter of any year, said Gregory Klump, CREA's chief economist. Elevated shares of provincial and national sales activity in Vancouver and Toronto are also expected to return to more normal levels, contributing to an anticipated moderation in average price in British Columbia, Ontario, and nationally, Klump said. He said additional new listings should result in a more balanced resale housing market in most provinces, with the national average price forecast to stabilize in 2012 although at a slightly higher level than previously expected. Meanwhile, CREA said national resale housing activity was stable on a month-to-month basis in July following an uptick in June. However, actual, or non-seasonally adjusted, sales activity in July came in 12.3 per cent above national levels in July 2010 when levels for the month reached their lowest point since 2002. With year-to-date sales continuing to run in line with the 10-year average, the national housing market remains firmly entrenched in balanced territory. The national average price in July posted the largest year-over-year gain since April 2010, but was below where it stood in June. Upward skewing of the national average price is diminishing due to fewer expensive sales and a declining share of national activity in Vancouver and Toronto, it said. Major markets that saw gains compared to June include Edmonton, Montreal, as well as Newfoundland and Labrador. Activity also held steady in Toronto, while Vancouver recorded a small decline. Based on a sales-to-new listings ratio of between 40 to 60 per cent, about three in every five local markets in Canada were balanced in July. Half of the remaining markets may be classified as sellers' markets, with a sales-to-new listings ratio of above 60, CREA said.

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TD to Buy Bank of America's Canadian Credit Card Unit

8/15/2011

- The Globe and Mail Toronto-Dominion Bank is boosting its stake in Canadian consumer debt. The bank says it has agreed to purchase Canadian credit card business of Bank of America Corp. which has about $8.5-billion in receivables. While TD did not disclose the value of the transaction, it said the price was a “modest premium.” That premium is believed to be about $100-million. The assets are part of the MBNA credit card portfolio, which was acquired by Bank of America in 2006. MBNA is Canada's largest MasterCard issuer. “This acquisition will position TD as a top card issuer in Canada,” said TD president and CEO Ed Clark. “This franchise brings new customers to TD, provides attractive additional options for our customers and is a great complement to our existing high-growth credit card business.” TD Bank said the agreement is expected to close in the fiscal first quarter of 2012. Bank of America has been reworking its credit card division to exit several international divisions, and last month sold its credit card assets in Spain, and also recently exited the same business in the U.K. “Our strategy is clear: We have been transforming the company to deliver the franchise to our core customer groups, and building a fortress balance sheet behind that,” said Bank of America CEO Brian Moynihan. “While the credit card remains a fundamental core product for our U.S. customers, an international consumer card business under another brand is not consistent with that strategy.”

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Overseas Markets See Gains at End of Wild Week

8/12/2011

CTV News.ca Staff Date: Friday Aug. 12, 2011 9:17 AM ET Many overseas stock markets saw gains during Friday trading, as North American investors waited to see how their own markets would fare at the end of one of the most volatile weeks in recent memory. BNN's Michael Kane said the uncertainty seen in North American markets this week made it difficult to predict what would happen on Friday. Case in point, the Dow Jones industrial index swung more than 400 points by the close of markets from Monday through Thursday. Kane said it was the first time in history that had happened in four consecutive trading sessions. Shortly before markets opened in North America, the U.S. Commerce Department announced that retail sales rose a half per cent in July, as Americans spent more on autos, furniture and gasoline. That was the best monthly increase since the spring. A stock trader looks on a graph showing activity on the gold market, in Paris, Friday, Aug. 12, 2011. (AP / Michel Euler) Overseas, major European markets were up Friday and several large Asian markets saw gains as well. In Europe, Germany's DAX led the way with a 2.3 per cent increase, putting it ahead of Britain's FTSE 100 (up 1.4 per cent) and France's CAC-40 (up 2.3 per cent). European regulators had banned the short-selling of financial stocks the night before trading resumed on Friday, which helped shore up the share prices of French banks. Some financial observers were skeptical that the ban on short-selling -- a practice where investors bet that a stock will decrease in value -- would do much to improve the markets. With deteriorating investor confidence in eurozone debt likely to continue driving reduced investor confidence in European banks' ability to withstand the fallout from the eurozone debt crisis, we doubt that downward pressure on European financials will now dissipate, Lee Hardman, an analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsibushi UFJ told The Associated Press. Hong Kong's Hang Seng index saw a slight bump of 0.1 per cent during Friday trading, while Australia's SP/ASX 200 jumped 0.8 per cent and benchmarks in New Zealand and Singapore also increased. In China, the Shanghai Composite Index was up 0.5 per cent, while the Shenzhen Composite Index gained 1 per cent. Other Asian markets lost ground Friday. Japan's Nikkei 225 stock average was down 0.2 per cent, South Korea's Kospi dropped 1.3 per cent, and markets in India and Taiwan also fell. While the overseas markets were not going through the wild swings seen earlier in the week, there was still a sense Friday that investors were highly vulnerable to the tremors of uncertainty. It's a very volatile market and everyone is reacting to every bit of news, said Tom Kaan of Louis Capital Markets in Hong Kong. The guy who is trying to pick the bottom is still very much at risk here. With files from The Associated Press

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Flaherty: Canada Able to Weather Global Turmoil

8/11/2011

The Canadian Press Date: Thu. Aug. 11 2011 7:06 AM ET WAKEFIELD, Que. — Canada's economy remains stable and growing despite a volatile situation on global markets, but Finance Minister Jim Flaherty acknowledge Wednesday that the continued uncertainty poses obvious risks for the country. However, the minister, said he will stick with his plan to balance the government books by 2014-15 in part by finding $4 billion in annual savings in government spending. In an uncertain global economic situation one of the strategic contributions that the government can make to bolster confidence and growth in Canada is to maintain our strong financial and fiscal position, he said. We will stay the course. We will stay on track. We will continue with the plan. Flaherty told reporters Wednesday before his annual summer policy retreat that U.S. and European difficulties have not prevented the Canadian economy from performing relatively well. Minister of Finance Jim Flaherty speaks to reporters as he arrives to his fifth annual summer police retreat in Wakefield, Quebec on Wednesday, August 10, 2011. (THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick) Our focus is on creating the right conditions for more jobs and stronger economic growth, the minister said. Flaherty's comments follow several days of volatile financial markets that has seen the Toronto stock market drop sharply. The Canadian market clawed back some of its lost ground Wednesday -- gaining about 89 points -- but Wall Street stocks plunged more than 500 points as investors' attention returns to the weak economy and Europe's debt problems. The U.S. Federal Reserve said Tuesday that it would look to keep interest rates at their record lows for the next two years as its painted a bleak picture of the U.S. economy. Economists expect the move by the U.S. will keep the Bank of Canada from raising interest rates until next year. Investors have also been kept on edge by Europe's debt troubles, rising inflation in China and slower growth in other less-developed countries. NDP finance critic Peggy Nash said Flaherty wasn't doing enough to cushion the economy from another slump. What we would have liked to have seen was a little more flexibility on the part of the minister, she said. We know that the government has a plan going forward in terms of cutting public spending and deficit reduction, but what we don't need right now is rigidity or even an ideological approach to our finances. Nash said Flaherty should have signalled he was open at looking at infrastructure spending as a way to deal with the uncertain times. The Conference Board of Canada reported Wednesday its index gauging the mood of business leaders has slipped due to their less optimistic outlook for the economy. The business confidence index stood at 103.7, down from 106.2 last quarter and 109.5 in the fourth quarter of 2010. The survey was done during the last three weeks of June, before the recent turmoil on the financial markets. The Conference Board said business leaders remained generally positive on their financial position and profitability, but predictions about the future of the Canadian economy had worsened. Just 30.9 per cent of those surveyed believed economic conditions will improve in the next six months, down from 40.6 per cent last quarter. Those who believed conditions will worsen increased four percentage points to 17 per cent.

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Lower Pump Prices Silver Lining of Economic Woes

8/10/2011

The Canadian Press Date: Wed. Aug. 10 2011 6:47 AM ET CALGARY — A big oil price drop over the last few days could come with one perk -- lower gasoline prices. And if oil prices remain at current levels, down sharply from earlier this summer over fears of a double-dip recession, that could shave prices at the pumps, helping consumers squeezed by high fuel costs. One bank economists predicted Tuesday that prices could drop another 15 per cent or so in the U.S. market if world oil rices stay around the $80 a barrel level. On Tuesday, crude sank to its lowest level since last September on fears of a double-dip recession in the United States. Crude lost $2.01, or 2.5 per cent, to finish at US$79.30 per barrel. That dip followed a 6.4 per cent decline on Monday, when investors had their first chance to react to news late Friday that Standard Poor's downgraded U.S. long-term debt for the first time in history. Mixed in with the unnerving headlines, beleaguered U.S. consumers have received at least one piece of good news in recent days, as gasoline prices have followed plunging benchmark crude prices lower, CIBC economist Peter Buchanan said in a report Tuesday. U.S. consumers were hit with a de facto tax of about $200 billion as gasoline prices hit three-year highs of $4 per gallon earlier this year. A one-dollar decline in the price of crude -- the raw product used to make gasoline -- typically shaves three to four cents off of each gallon of gas. U.S. pump prices are averaging $3.60 now, but if crude stays in the $80-per-barrel range, it could mean a further reduction of 40 to 50 cents, Buchanan wrote. In Canadian terms, that would be the equivalent of a drop from 95 cents per litre to between 84 and 82 cents per litre. Gas tends to be cheaper south of the border than in Canada due to differences in taxes and market dynamics. Given that sort of impact, the lift from cheaper gasoline isn't likely to be the magic bullet that single-handedly puts a sub-par recovery back on the rails, wrote Buchanan. But it does form part of our view that the U.S. economy will see disappointing growth rather than a return to outright recession in the next few quarters. Price-tracking website Gasbuddy.com pegged the Canadian average for gasoline at about C$1.25 on Tuesday, down just a cent and a half from a month ago, when oil was around US$96 per barrel. Consumers are likely perplexed as to why the drop in crude hasn't yet led to breaks at the pump, said Roger McKnight, a senior petroleum adviser at En-Pro International. McKnight said one culprit is the lower Canadian dollar, which has dropped in recent weeks against the American greenback and even fell below par for a short time Tuesday. Gas prices dropped overnight as seen in Kitchener, Ont. on Tuesday, Aug. 9, 2011. With crude being paid for in U.S. dollars, the Canadian public isn't seeing that drop as dramatically because they're using a weaker dollar to pay for it, he said. The economic turmoil has consumers worried about their jobs and their retirement savings, and that could cause them to cut back on their fuel use. There's a fear factor here that's just running rampant right now, not only in the stock market, but with the consumer in general, said McKnight. I would say that demand has been anemic all year, and I can't see it picking up until such time as there's some positive news from the United States of America. Meanwhile, experts do not foresee a pullback in oilsands investment as a result of the lower crude prices -- at least not to the same degree as in the 2008 downturn, when construction of new projects to ground virtually to a halt. During the summer of 2008, crude hit a record near US$150 per barrel. By year-end it was in the $30-per-barrel range. I think that was an end-of-the-world scenario, said John Stephenson, portfolio manager at First Asset Investment Management. The overnight implosion of investment house Lehman Brothers three years ago was a cataclysmic event that shocked markets, but this time the debt debacles in the United States and Europe have been known to the market for some time. It's a chronic, systemic issue that's going to slowly bleed us down lower. But do I see (crude oil) going down to $30? No. Could I see $70? Sure. Oilsands operations, which require enormous amounts capital, are still profitable where crude is at now. But as you get down to $70 and stuff, it gets a little dicier for many of these projects, said Stephenson. Some observers said they expect the crude price rout to be short-lived. It's not a reaction, as far as I know, to any real change in the fundamentals, said Scotiabank commodities specialist Patricia Mohr. Investors were betting debt worries in the United States and Europe will slow growth in those economies, thereby reducing global demand for energy. I'm not readily convinced of that, said Ralph Glass, with consulting firm AJM Deloitte. AJM has been expecting crude to average $100 per barrel for the balance of 2011, and Glass said he's not prepared to lower his forecasts just yet. We're still seeing growth in other countries, like China, like India, and we've already seen flat or no growth in the U.S. and Europe anyway, he said. So I really think it is just a short-term reaction to what's happening in the U.S. and Europe as far as the economic growth potential.

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Rate Guarantee: Get The Best Mortgage Rate

8/9/2011

Shopping for a new home can be a stressful experience, but finding the right mortgage doesn't have to be complicated. In a recent Vision Critical survey commissioned by ING Direct, 71 per cent of Canadians indicated that rate was the most important factor when shopping for a mortgage. Many banks offer a rate hold, a commitment to mortgage applicants that guarantees their lowest rate for a set period of time-usually up to 90 days-before they fund their mortgage. A rate hold secures the best rate and protects you from an increase when you apply or get pre-approved for a mortgage. If the mortgage rate goes down, you automatically get the lowest rate. In today's rising interest rate environment, a rate guarantee is an important item on your home buying checklist. Guaranteeing the best rate gives you peace of mind and helps you save money on one of the biggest purchases you'll ever make. Source www.newscanada.com

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U.S. Perils to Feel like Double Dip Recession: Experts

8/8/2011

The Canadian Press Date: Mon. Aug. 8 2011 1:40 PM ET TORONTO — Economic observers say Canadian consumers will likely feel the pain of economic turmoil in the United States if it heads back into recession as some credit agencies fear. John Stephenson of First Asset Funds says U.S. debt downgrades and plunging stock market values could translate into tougher times ahead for Canadian consumers. He says a faltering U.S. economy will likely mean Canadian businesses won't be in much of a mood to hire, while consumers may lack the confidence to spend enough to keep the economy growing. Stephenson says consumers should be concerned about reduced investment income, especially at a time when Canadians have racked up debt at cheaper borrowing rates. A broker reacts as the stock index fell slightly after the opening of trading, in Frankfurt, Germany, Monday, Aug. 8, 2011. (AP / Michael Probst) Bank of Montreal economist Robert Kavic says the Canadian dollar is vulnerable and the Toronto stock market will probably keep taking a beating for some time. He says that could affect consumer confidence and spending levels, which could undermine prices in the influential housing market, especially in Vancouver and Toronto. Source: www.ctv.ca

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Timely Advice For A Good Credit Score

7/19/2011

The interest rate you pay for a new mortgage, or for refinancing your current mortgage, is determined to a large degree by your credit score. Here's one very basic piece of advice for encouraging a good credit score: Pay your bills on time! Any unpaid bills - no matter how small - that find their way into the hands of a collection agency, can affect your credit report, and therefore the interest rate on your mortgage. Even a seemingly minor 0.25 percent increase in your mortgage interest rate can make a difference of thousands of dollars over the long run. Credit ratings can affect you at the most unexpected times. For example, did you know that a lower credit rating could even result in higher home and auto insurance premiums? A good credit record comes from using credit responsibly. However, sometimes even people who do use their credit responsibly discover, at the point they're applying for a loan, about an error or a forgotten issue on their credit report, and have no time to set the record straight. Don't let this happen to you - take advantage of your right to receive a free credit report every year. In Canada, the three main companies you'd approach to find out your credit score are Equifax, Trans union and Experian. Even if you're not interested in applying for a mortgage at this point, take the time to find out your credit score, and make sure it's accurate. Need information on loans, mortgages or credit scores?Make contact today for a no-obligation discussion! **Contact information can be found at the top of our Blog page; just look for the smart key tabs!

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Mortgage Matters - The Waiting Game

7/7/2011

While young adults from age 18 to 34 represent the most likely age group to buy a home within the next two years, 55 percent of them responded to a recent survey saying they're not quite ready now, and, in fact, probably won't be ready until at least next year. Why the wait? An Ipsos Reid survey, conducted in January 2011 among 2, 103 Canadians, found that rising real estate prices, along with providing a large enough down payment, were the biggest concerns for the young people. Committing to the purchase of a first property, or eve - for current homeowners - a second property, should be done with all the facts in hand, which is why doing your research now, with the help of a mortgage broker, has never been more important. You'll need to determine what you can afford, and you'll want someone to present and explain all the financing options available to you. Keep in mind that mortgage rates have been at historical lows over the past couple of years, but are starting to inch up now. We are lucky to live in an economy that shows steadily improving activity, however, the other side of the coin is that mortgage rates will eventually have to rise, making homeownership challenging. In a few short years, potential buyers might nostalgically look back on these times as the good old days, when financing a loan was affordable. Even if you're not ready to move right now, remember that you are always welcome to call with any questions. Why wait? Please call for a no-obligation discussion on today's real estate environment and mortgage market.

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Terry Fox legacy lives on three decades after death

6/28/2011

The Canadian Press Date: Tuesday Jun. 28, 2011 6:46 AM ET VANCOUVER — In this world of multimillion-dollar athletes and badly behaved celebrities, it comes as no surprise to Lorne Davies that three decades after his death, Terry Fox remains one of the country's most recognizable heroes. The athletics director at Simon Fraser University when Fox was a junior varsity basketball player who lost his leg to cancer, Davies remembers watching the young man return to the gym after his right leg was amputated above the knee. He'd decided to take up wheelchair basketball, and from his office Davies could see Fox spend hours practising. He'd shoot a basketball and he'd go roll after it and pick it up, go back and shoot again, shoot and roll, shoot and roll. To see him all by himself in a gymnasium like that was quite inspiring, said Davies, now the director of the Terry Fox Humanitarian Award Program, a national program which provides dozens of scholarships across the country to students who give time to charitable work. Fox eventually did play on a wheelchair basketball team, and his team won the national championship that year. Then he decided to train for a marathon. Terry Fox attends a rally at Toronto City Hall, Nathan Phillips Square Friday July 11, 1980. He is wearing an NHL All Star jersey presented to him by Darryl Sittler of the Toronto Maple Leafs. His parents Betty (L) and Rolly Fox (R) stand with him. (Bill Becker / THE CANADIAN PRESS) I don't say this to criticize anyone but... we really lack heroes for young people in this country, Davies said. Most people can name several sports icons and celebrities, but struggle to come up with somebody who's given something to help others. Fox, who was 18 when he lost his leg to cancer in 1977 and three years later began his Marathon of Hope to raise money for cancer research, certainly did that. He dipped his leg into the cold water of the Atlantic Ocean to begin his cross-country run on April 12, 1980. For the next 143 days, Fox ran a marathon a day -- 42 kilometres -- from St. John's, NL, to just outside Thunder Bay, Ont. It's an incredible athletic feat for any athlete. For a cancer survivor amputee, it was enough to spark the imagination of a nation. But near Thunder Bay, the Marathon of Hope came to an abrupt and devastating end. On Sept. 1, 1980, 5,373 kilometres into his journey, with less than half way left to go, he found out the cancer had returned and spread to his lungs. Fox himself was shocked. I thought that the cancer, that I had it beat. It was an unbelievable shock to me yesterday to find out what I had, he told reporters after the run ended. You know I've been running 26 miles a day, up and down those hills and I've been feeling great. And I just, I didn't expect that at all. I've come so far, Fox said in an emotional interview. He died in the Royal Columbian Hospital, in New Westminster, B.C., on June 28, 1981. For those who shed tears early that morning as news spread that Fox's struggle had ended, it seems impossible that three decades have passed. The image of him, with his unique gait, running along the TransCanada highway remains fresh in their minds. To me, everything is clear. It could have happened yesterday, said Leslie Scrivener, a writer for the Toronto Star who spent time on the road with Fox, and later wrote the biography, Terry Fox: His Story. She can still picture the first time she saw him along the highway near the Quebec-Ontario boundary. I can see the line of poplar trees behind him; I can see him running and how small he looked on the road; I can see him lifting his hand when I honked the horn, to say hi. Of course, he didn't stop, Scrivener said. She recalls him quite literally running into his mother's arms when her newspaper flew Betty and Rolly Fox out for a visit in July. While she was extremely worried about Terry it was still exciting because her son was on this tremendous adventure, Scrivener recalled of Betty, who died last week. Who wouldn't want a son who was giving back and to be such a tremendous role model for others? While no one could have foreseen where the run would ultimately take him, Fox did seem to appreciate the incredible journey he was on. He remembered ordinary Canadians on the road, he remembered what he'd seen and it all had a place in his heart and he didn't forget it, Scrivener said. When he was in Newfoundland and he said 'I remember going through Gander and seeing kids playing road hockey. And where are those kids now? Are they still playing road hockey? Are they playing it in a rink? I think about that all across Canada. What are the people doing in the little towns, the people that I met?' It meant so much to him, she recalled with emotion. After they parted company, Scrivener returned to her apartment in Vancouver, looking forward to seeing him dip his foot in the Pacific at the end. For certain, I would be there in British Columbia, on the west coast of Vancouver Island and again as he made his triumphant entry into Stanley Park. He made you believe that -- that he would succeed. I mean he made an 8,000-kilometre run seem possible, because of who he was. It was not just Fox, but his family, said Davies. It's been my belief that without his mother and without his father and the family, I don't think the run would be where it is today, he said. The family started the foundation and steadfastly guarded Fox's legacy, especially Betty. The first annual Terry Fox Run took place just a few months after his death. Today, runs take place in 28 countries around the world, and the Terry Fox Foundation has raised more than $550 million for cancer research. Thousands attended Betty Fox's memorial service on the weekend.

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Canada Post Strike Update - Mail should start flowing by Tuesday

6/27/2011

CTV.ca News Staff Date: Monday Jun. 27, 2011 8:13 AM ET Canadians should expect to see mail arriving at their homes and businesses as soon as Tuesday, as newly passed legislation will force postal workers back to work within hours. Locked out Canada Post employees gather outside the Gateway sorting plant in Mississauga, Ont., Monday, June 27, 2011. Canada Post spokesperson Jon Hamilton said postal workers will begin sorting through the mail that has accumulated during the strike and accompanying lockout when they return to work on Monday. What we're going to do is move as quickly as possible to get the mail restored across Canada, Hamilton told CTV's Canada AM from Ottawa on Monday morning. Hamilton said that once sorting begins, postal workers will be able to begin distributing the mail as soon as Tuesday afternoon. Denis Lemelin, the president of the Canadian Union of Postal Workers, has said union members will obey the back-to-work order from the government that will come into full effect by the end of Monday. But he said CUPW will examine the back-to-work legislation that passed Sunday to see if it has any holes to exploit -- and the union will also take an aggressive stance during the upcoming arbitration process. Forty-eight thousand urban postal workers began a series of rotating strikes on June 3, after failing to come to an agreement with Canada Post. Wages for new employees, sick days and the company's plan for the future were among the sticking points between the Crown corporation and its employees. In the early days of the rotating strikes, the post office and the union remained engaged in negotiations. But the two sides didn't get very far and Canada Post announced June 14 that it was locking out its striking workers. A day later, Labour Minister Lisa Raitt signalled that the government would table back-to-work legislation if the two sides couldn't reach a deal. After that bill was subsequently tabled on June 20, the New Democrats spoke out against the government's efforts to quash the labour dispute on the basis that the legislation wasn't fair to the striking workers. Then the Official Opposition used a filibuster -- a non-stop debate in the House of Commons -- to hold up passage of the back-to-work bill for 58 hours. But they could only stall the bill for so long and it finally passed, was approved by the Senate and received royal assent all during the same weekend. Question Period host Jane Taber said the NDP's staunch support of the postal workers got mixed reviews from critics. While the Opposition's debate manoeuvre in the House of Commons held up the bill, it did not stop it from passing. This is the Harper government at work. This is the new muscular NDP opposition showing that it was not going to be cowed by what this majority government was doing, Taber told CTV's Canada AM from Ottawa on Monday morning. With files from The Canadian Press

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The Almighty Dollar...

6/16/2011

CBC News Posted: Jun 16, 2011 11:38 AM ET The Canadian dollar fell to a three-month low Thursday as worries that Greece will default on its massive debts sent traders to the safe haven status of the U.S. dollar for a second day. The loonie was down 0.54 of a cent to 101.61 cents US at mid-afternoon. It fell more than one cent on Wednesday. I think the risk is we could easily move toward parity because we're seeing a trend to risk aversion in markets and a lot of uncertainty stemming out of Europe, said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotia Capital. As well, we're also seeing a softening in U.S. economic data overall. All of that puts some pressure on the Canadian economic outlook as well. Canada's dollar hasn't closed below parity since the end of January. Canada's benchmark stock index, the SP/TSX Composite Index, was also lower. The TSX shed 105 points to sit at 12866 in the afternoon. That's almost 10 per cent below its recent high of 14,270, hit on April 5. When a stock index loses more than 10 per cent, it's considered to be an official correction. Anti-auterity protesters gesture outside the Greek parliament in Athens on Wednesday. Concern about a financial collapse in Greece has led currency traders to seek safety in the U.S. dollar. (Lefteris Pitarakis/Associated Press) The political crisis inGreece escalated Thursday, with critics within the governing Socialist Party openly in revolt over harsh austerity measures, despite assurances from the European Union that Athens would receive rescue loan money needed to avoid a summer default. Markets fear that a Greek financial collapse could trigger panic elsewhere in the 17-nation euro zone, pushing up borrowing costs in other vulnerable EU countries and pressuring financial markets. 'Markets are jittery because [of] the risk of contagion spreading to other euro-zone countries and banks is a key concern.'—Rahim Madhavji, Knightsbridge Foreign Exchange Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou was forced to delay a planned cabinet reshuffle and convene an emergency party meeting Thursday after two Socialist deputies resigned and others openly questioned his leadership. Investors are deeply worried that a default in Greece could hurt banks elsewhere and set off a catastrophic financial chain reaction. Markets are jittery because [of] the risk of contagion spreading to other euro-zone countries and banks is a key concern, said Rahim Madhavji of Knightsbridge Foreign Exchange. If the value of debt holdings is re-priced/restructured, on a leveraged basis, many banks will require additional capital, and quickly, tightening lending, and a call for capital all at the same time. The dollar has also suffered following the release of economic data which indicates the U.S. economy is slowing down faster than thought. Bad news from Canada's biggest trading partner this week included two regional manufacturing surveys — the Empire State and Philadelphia Fed indexes — came in well below expectations. What transpires for the U.S. economy is by default also transpiring in Canada, so that's a big negative, added Sutton.With files from The Canadian Press and The Associated Press

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Air Canada Strike; No End in Sight

6/15/2011

CTV.ca News Staff Date: Wednesday Jun. 15, 2011 2:15 PM ET Opposition Leader Jack Layton lashed out at the Conservative government's plan to legislate an end to a strike by Air Canada employees on Wednesday, calling it a draconian measure that abuses the government's role in labour talks. New Democratic Party leader Jack Layton asks a question during question period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Wednesday, June 15, 2011. Layton said the government's decision to seek a forced end to the strike, which came just hours after some 3,800 call centre staff and check-in agents walked off the job at midnight Tuesday, suggested it had no interest in allowing the union to negotiate for a better deal. Here we have, moments after a labour conflict reaches the point of a work stoppage, the government is bringing in back-to-work legislation, Layton told reporters on Wednesday. This shows the government is not serious about allowing people work things out at the table. They are standing very clearly on the side of the company. Labour Minister Lisa Raitt has given notice that the federal government would table legislation to end the strike within 48 hours. The call came just hours after some 3,800 call centre staff and check-in agents walked off the job at midnight Tuesday. The move, she said, would be aimed at ensuring the strike does not harm Canada's economic recovery. Both the union and Air Canada have said a negotiated settlement would be preferable to being forced back to work, although they remain divided on how to get there. In an interview with CTV's Canada AM early Wednesday, the president of the striking airline employees' union said the rumblings from Parliament Hill don't matter as much as the talk at the bargaining table. I don't even worry about the government orders, Canadian Auto Workers National President Ken Lewenza said, explaining that he was nevertheless surprised by the government's threat. But he said the union is unmoved from its commitment to hammering out a deal with the airline. We've got to go to work and try to get a deal because a bargained settlement between both sides ratified by the membership is much more important than being legislated back to work, Lewenza said. Commenting in a separate interview just moments later, Air Canada spokesperson Peter Fitzpatrick indicated the airline is on the same page. It's probably best to leave politics to the politicians, he said, echoing Lewenza's call for a negotiated settlement. That's really where we're directed and that's what we're hoping for. While he agrees with the government's opinion that Air Canada is a strategic industry on which the national economy depends, he doesn't think it would be best served by a legislated end to the strike. It's best to have the airline functioning as it normally does, he said. We want to get there and we think the best way to do that is by reaching a settlement directly with the CAW. While speaking to reporters, Layton agreed with Fitzpatrick and Lewenza and said the two sides should be given time for hammer out a lasting agreement. This issue should be resolved, and the associated complexities, at the bargaining table. That is what a government should be doing: encouraging the sides to get together, he said. The two sides are in agreement on that issue, but they're far apart on a number of others including wages and the biggest stumbling block of all -- proposed changes to employees' pension plans. With the airline facing an approximately $2-billion unfunded pension shortfall, Air Canada has proposed a defined contribution pension plan for new employees, while maintaining the current defined benefit plan for existing employees. In Lewenza's view, the offer is really an attempt to divert most of the costs associated with the pension plan on the backs of our members. That won't fly, he said, explaining that union is committed to maintaining the existing benefit plan for current employees as well as future new hires. But with the growing number of retirees expected to live longer than previous generations, Fitzpatrick said the union's position fails to account for the new reality in pensions. With its customer service staff walking the picket lines at nine airports nationwide, approximately 1,700 Air Canada managers have taken on the striking employees' jobs. An airline spokesperson said just one per cent of Air Canada flights were cancelled on the first day of strike action. In an interview from Ottawa, Raitt said she set the legislative ball rolling on Tuesday because the impact of the strike is expected to grow as it goes on. And given the two sides' failure to resolve the issue of pensions going back to 2009, Raitt said she wouldn't expect them to suddenly reach a deal anytime soon. The anticipated result was after about 5 to 7 days that the travelling public would be greatly inconvenienced, she said. Knowing what the process is involved with back-to-work legislation we commenced it yesterday because it takes 48 hours even before the tabling of legislation, Raitt added, noting that it would then have to be put to debate and a vote. So it would be 7-8 days from the time which you give notice ... to actually having action.

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Air Canada Strike - Federal Government Steps In

6/14/2011

CTV.ca News Staff Date: Tue. Jun. 14 2011 4:15 PM ET The federal government says that it's preparing to table legislation that would compel striking Air Canada staff back to work, if the air carrier and the union can't agree to a deal. Finance Minister Jim Flaherty said a notice of intent will be put to the House of Commons Tuesday night, paving the way for the government to introduce back-to-work legislation as early as Thursday. The announcement came less than a day after 3,800 customer service and sales staff walked off the job. Air Canada customers faced minor delays Tuesday as the airline attempted to limit the impact of a labour dispute, which has left 1,700 managers doing much of the work usually handled by thousands of their subordinates. Air Canada customer service agents picket outside Pierre Elliott Trudeau airport in Montreal, Tuesday, June 14, 2011. (Graham Hughes / THE CANADIAN PRESS) The strike began at midnight on Monday, after the Canadian Auto Workers union was unable to come to an agreement with Air Canada before a late-night deadline. CTV's Merella Fernandez reported that more than 20 flights had been delayed at Toronto's Pearson International Airport by the mid-morning on Tuesday. Fernandez said many customers showed up early for their flights and found that they had no trouble getting to the check-in area. Air Canada spokesperson Peter Fitzpatrick said the airline contingency plan is working as we expected it would. But lineups were getting longer as the morning progressed. It looks good right now, Air Canada customer service agent Dawn Moreau told The Canadian Press. Is it going to stay this way? No. Moreau said the lines would continue to build as the strike drags on. We're on Tuesday morning, it's probably the slowest morning of the week. You get into your afternoon shifts, you get into your evening shifts, you get into snowball effects down the line, said Moreau. Despite the presence of 100 or so striking Air Canada workers outside Terminal One, union members were not blocking customers from getting to their flights on Tuesday. Airline, union want to keep talking Both the union and the airline have signalled a desire to keep talking, but they have yet to find common ground on key issues of pensions and wages. Air Canada chief operating officer Duncan Dee said the airline is ready to resume discussions at any time to achieve a negotiated settlement. CAW president Ken Lewenza said the union also wants a deal that will benefit its members and allow them to return to work. We have a responsibility to push for an agreement because it's in the interests of our members of course, but more importantly it's in the interests of the customers who need the services of Air Canada, Lewenza said. But the divide between the union and Air Canada on pensions remains the major sticking point in negotiations. Facing a reported pension shortfall of $2.1 billion, Air Canada is pushing for change. But the union opposes the airline's plan to force new employees to accept a defined contribution pension plan, rather than the defined benefit pension plan that is in place for current employees. With a defined benefit plan, employees have a predictable income, but the airline is on the hook for additional costs if the pension fund's assets can't pay for the benefits. A defined contribution plan limits the amount of money the airline has to provide, while the payout to workers depends on the performance of the pension fund's underlying investments. Sue Harris was one of the thousands of Air Canada employees to walk off the job after the strike deadline passed. She told CTV's Canada AM Tuesday that union members are simply trying to protect what they have and to ensure that all Air Canada workers are treated equally. When we were hired by Air Canada, we were forced to take part in the pension plan, Harris said in a telephone interview from Pearson International Airport. We believe that it should be with us until we retire, it should stay the way that it was originally intended. While some critics say that new hires should simply be excluded from the prior pension arrangement, Harris said it is necessary to keep the status quo to be fair to everybody. BNN's Michael Kane said the strike comes at a time when Air Canada is also trying to grow its business at a secondary Toronto airport where competitor Porter Airlines has been successful at wooing corporate travellers. All of this is ongoing now while Air Canada wants to stay in business day to day, keep the traffic numbers up, expand the business and of course, look after the fine employees who got you to this position in the first place, Kane told CTV News Channel. With files from The Canadian Press

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Another Day...Another Strike

6/13/2011

CTV.ca News Staff Date: Monday Jun. 13, 2011 1:13 PM ET The union representing Air Canada employees on the verge of a strike said Monday it had made progress on some contract issues but had a long way to go on other key differences. Roughly 3,800 sales and customer service staff could be on the picket line as early as Tuesday morning if differences on pension and wages aren't ironed out by midnight Monday. An Air Canada customer checks in at Lester B. Pearson International Airport in Toronto, Monday, June 13, 2011. CAW president Ken Lewenza suggested that was a long shot. We did a lot of work but it just seems to me that we should be moving a little bit quicker than we are right now, Lewenza said. He said the union put forward a proposal on Sunday, but hasn't yet heard back from the employer. The proposal, Lewenza said, would achieve pension security and guaranteed wage increases after 10 years of uncertainty. But he offered no further details. Meanwhile, Air Canada ticket holders were being told that scheduled service will continue whether or not the airline's sales and customer service staff are walking the picket lines Tuesday morning. But would-be travellers were advised to plan ahead if they want to avoid delays. In total, 3,200 airport customer service agents and 600 call-centre staff are set to walk off the job just after midnight Monday. In an interview from Montreal, airline industry analyst Karl Moore said that after 10 weeks of negotiations failed to reach an agreement, the strike action appears likely. It could turn around, Moore told CTV's Canada AM Monday. But there are a couple of issues which really are important which I'm not sure we're going to get an easy resolution on. Chief among the sticking points is Air Canada's proposed changes to workers' pension plans. Under the suggested changes, new employees would sign onto a defined contribution pension that would see them collect a set, pre-determined lump sum at retirement. But the Canadian Auto Workers local representing the workers would rather stick with the present defined benefit pension plan that gives retirees regular, predictable payments. While employees typically favour the ongoing benefits of the latter plan, employers can find themselves saddled with additional costs if their pension fund runs short. In Moore's view, this legacy burden poses a significant challenge for Air Canada given that it now has more retired employees than working ones. But it's not a new problem. Air Canada was forced into creditor protection in 2003 due in part to the cost of the company's pension deficit. That figure stands at $2.1 billion today. Air Canada's unions agreed to a number of concessions when the company restructured back in 2004, but left the defined-benefit pension plans untouched. And CAW president Ken Lewenza told CTV News his members aren't willing to negotiate those benefits away now either. We bargained these pension plans over four decades ago and as a result of the global financial crisis and a top-heavy salary structure for CEOs, we're being asked to feel the pain, Lewenza told CTV News Channel as negotiations continued at a downtown Toronto hotel through the weekend. Both the airline and the union have maintained they want to avoid a strike and federal Labour Minister Lisa Raitt has weighed in too, urging both sides to reach a deal or risk impacting Canada's economic recovery. In the event workers do take to the picket lines, Air Canada has promised to enact a contingency plan aimed at ensuring that flights continue to take off and land as scheduled. All bookings will be honoured, the airline said in a statement posted to its website. Management has been trained to provide assistance at the airports that would be affected, the airline explained, warning also that anyone planning to check-in at the airport's self-service kiosks should expect longer-than usual lineups. Travellers who want to avoid delays are nevertheless advised to familiarize themselves with Air Canada's online self-service tools for booking tickets, making changes and obtaining boarding passes. Despite the airline's pledge and preparations, Moore says some delays are inevitable. Management will have a good attitude, but if you're going to travel on Air Canada in the next few days go a bit earlier and be a bit patient, he advised, emphasizing the benefits of checking-in at home. Particularly if you have no baggage you can go straight through the security and to the gate. Air Canada says if its workers go on strike, the airports in Vancouver, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg, Toronto Pearson, Ottawa, Montreal, Halifax and St. John's, NL will be affected. With files from The Canadian Press

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Possible postal strike on the horizon...

5/30/2011

Workers reject latest offer from Canada Post .slideImage{filter:progid:DXImageTransform.Microsoft.Fade()} The Canadian Press Date: Monday May. 30, 2011 11:15 AM ET OTTAWA — The union representing Canada Post's urban workers has given the Crown corporation an ultimatum that it will go on strike late Thursday night if its final offer is rejected. CUPW says it has filed notice that puts it in a legal position to strike on Thursday at 11:59 p.m. ET after itself rejecting the latest offer from Canada Post. The two sides have been in talks for more than seven months and have not been able to hammer out an agreement. The union has called a news conference in Ottawa this morning to talk about its latest proposal. It says the strike notice puts pressure on Canada Post to negotiate and it is willing to talk right up until the dealine. CUPW says the new offer includes several amendments and clarifications to its positions -- including a drop in its wage increase demands. The Canadian Union of Postal Workers represents about 50,000 urban postal workers and negotiations to reach a new collective agreement began last fall.

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Hello Summer...Hello Construction!

5/19/2011

ctvtoronto.ca Date: Thursday May. 19, 2011 1:16 PM ET It happens the same time every year; as the weather trends toward the positive, drivers start feeling negative about traffic-clogging construction on Ontario highways. Construction crews are about to dig into dozens of projects across the province, meaning there could be long, frustrating summer commutes to cottage country or downtown offices. On Thursday, the province announced $2.5 billion in funding for improvements to the province's highways, roads and bridges. I know that for most people there's a kind of dread that comes over them when we think about highway construction, Ontario Transportation Minister Kathleen Wynne told reporters. But construction is critical because it keeps our highways, our bridges and our roads safe. More than 200 projects will get under way across the province's 3,000 bridges and 16,000 kilometres of highways. According to Wynne, this year's construction season will creates more than 17,000 jobs across the province. Key projects include: Improvements to Highway 427 between the Queen Elizabeth Way and Highway 401 Repairs to the Burlington Bay Skyway Bridge's Toronto-bound lanes Major bridge repairs in Chatham-Kent, Elgin County and Brantford Resurfacing for several corridors around Toronto, including highways 404, 400 and 7. Wynne said construction crews will do their best to minimize the impact on traffic by doing much of the work at night and during off-peak hours. She added that it's better to get the work done than let Ontario's aging infrastructure ride into the sunset. We have to acknowledge much of the infrastructure in Ontario, particularly highways and bridges, is baby boom infrastructure, she said. It happened at a time when there was a lot of growth in the province and we need to keep up with the repairs because, like the baby boom, it is aging. The City of Toronto will get the season started this weekend when the Gardiner Expressway is closed from Saturday to Monday morning at 8 a.m. between Carlaw Avenue to the Humber River, for a spring cleaning. With a report from CTV Toronto's Janice Golding

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Canadian Unemployment Rate Drop

5/2/2011

CTV.ca News Staff Date: Fri. May. 6 2011 11:29 AM ET The Canadian economy added more jobs in April than many economists had forecast, pumping out a surprisingly strong 58,300 jobs to push the jobless rate down a notch, to 7.6 per cent. April's gains bring the year-over-year increase in employment to 283,000, a bump of 1.7 per cent. Economists had expected a modest gain of 20,000 jobs in April, following a weak March. Instead, they got more than twice that, with almost all the gains in the province of Ontario and in the services sector. Jimmy Jean, a senior economist with Desjardins Securities, said that while the gains look good for Ontario, there were only about 3,000 jobs added in other provinces over the same time period. On the surface, the headline number looks good, but scratching below the surface, it's really concentrated in Ontario and also in the part-time component, Jean told CTV News Channel on Friday morning. So there could be some reversal of that in the following months. Douglas Porter of BMO Capital Markets called the jobs report pretty encouraging, on the basis that it beat economists' predictions and showed that the recovery continues to roll forward. The April job numbers According to the StatsCan numbers, service industry employment rose by 69,600 in April, while manufacturing jobs fell by 11,300. Part-time work expanded by 41,100 and full-time jobs by 17,200. Among the services sector, finance, insurance, real estate and leasing saw a gain of 19,000 jobs. Business, building and other support services chipped in with 17,000 new jobs. The key manufacturing and construction sectors were mostly flat in April, but both industries have seen increases in employment of 3.3 per cent and 2.7 per cent respectively over the past year. While employment among youths aged 15 to 24 and so-called core-aged workers (25 to 54) held steady in April, employment rose among women 55 and over -- up 29,000 in April. Compared with 12 months earlier, employment among these women increased by 102,000 or 7.9 per cent, the fastest rate of growth of all demographic groups, Statistics Canada said. Province-by-province numbers Ontario saw its jobless rate drop to 7.9 per cent, the lowest since December 2008. The province has seen an increase of 157,000 jobs, or 2.4 per cent, over the past 12 months -- most of them full-time. Newfoundland too added plenty of jobs, pushing the unemployment rate from 12.4 per cent down to 11.1 per cent, the lowest since comparable records began in 1976. But six out of 10 provinces experienced an overall drop in employment levels, although all were modest relative to their population. Here's what happened provincially (previous month in brackets): Newfoundland 11.1 (12.4) Prince Edward Island 11.2 (11.2) Nova Scotia 9.2 (9.0) New Brunswick 10.0 (9.6) Quebec 7.8 (7.7) Ontario 7.9 (8.1) Manitoba 5.2 (5.5) Saskatchewan 5.0 (5.2) Alberta 5.9 (5.7) British Columbia 7.9 (8.1) With files from The Canadian Press

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